Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

This is the way I see it.

The next Nintendo system will have some sort of Disc drive. So will the next Xbox and PS4, but they might also have a DDL system thats cheaper than there regular systems. They would be stupid to go to complete DDL, with only 50% having DSL, cable or be Fios. Less than half the Xbox 360s sold are online. About 40%. Don't know how many PS3's are online, but it has to be less than 360. Not even gonna say how many people play Wii online. Why are half the people in the USA not online? Well most of it is because they don't have fast internet. Going to DDL only will not happen in the next systems, it would be a huge profit loss for them. I can see the systems after these next ones having DDL only, but not these ones. People want a physical media, they don't want it to be stored all on there hard drive. What they need to do is find something better than blu-ray and use it. I know there are better things out there to use, but the problem is price. $25 blu-ray or someother form of P.M. $200. The way I see it, people are going to buy the physical media over the DDL, DDL is just a benfit that we don't need. If the next Xbox and PS4 are DDL only, than I guess Nintendo wins. People will buy there system over an all DDL system anyday. Tell me a 50Gig game takes how long to download on Time Warner Cable? I don't know, but I can tell you a 120 Min movie takes 4 Hours. Yes I know they'll try to set it up so its easier and faster to download something, but the masses will flock toward a PM or a DDL anyday. I don't see the next Wii coming out till 2012, next Xbox 2014, next PS4, who knows when sony will release theres with them losing so much money on the PS3. Bottom line is this DDL is coming, just not in the next gen of systems, unless they hold off for 8 years to improve the internet so more people have access to it. Yes I said 8 years, cause thery got alot of ground to cover. I say lets go back to using dialup on the dreamcast anyone? The way I see it :
Nintendo 2012-Sometype of drive
Xbox 2014-One comes in DDL only, another with a drive, $100-200 price diffrence in them. Games reach $70. Or they'll just make one system that has both, who knows.
Same goes for the PS4, expect my guess we don't see it till 2014-2016, some were in there.
Either way, Nintendo comes out of the gate first. Can anyone tell me what sells more games? DDL or PM? What do people pefer, and not what the game compaines perfer? What ever they do will change the way we play the games, but one thing will be clear, there will always be a new system.
PM Yes
DDL No
 
I can see direct download for the online multi player part of games being DD only, you need an internet connection to enjoy the content anyway. It being on your hard disk gives faster access. You can game launch without putting in a disc from home or an invite. The multi player aspect is inherently impermanent anyway. You'd get a better idea of the relative merits of your single player and multi player games as a publisher. This doesn't apply to games where the single player is the multi player but with bots like fighters and sports games.
 
fearsomepirate said:
The failure of PSPGo suggests that DD is not something that customers want
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Agreed. And anyone with the slightest business sense at Sony won't let them repeat that mistake. Especially since even some retailers boycotted the Go. That will only get worse with no physical-medium using alternative SKU

75% of the world doesn't even have broadband.

I like collectors editions, it's bad enough some these days come with DLC, but DLC cannot be a collector's edition.

My 60GB PS3 is nearly full as it is. And that's just getting small stuff off PSN.

With ISP quotas, and them cracking down on heavy downloading, there is no hypothetical download only future.

So does the failure of the psp prove that no one wants physical media ?
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PSP was not a failure.

The original psp failed to gain any signifigant market share compared to other handhelds
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Actually it's the best selling non nintendo handheld ever.

But the problem is it was made to fail.
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Yeah, by removing UMD

. Don't know how many PS3's are online
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Sony said russia had 68% online. So download only ignores 1/3 of the userbase.

I agree with everything you said Saga_Studios. The next gen will still use discs
 
NeoTechni said:
Yeah, by removing UMD
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That reduced possible sales, but not why it failed. Not having day and date DD of all titles immediately doomed it to failure.

Basically all you can say about PSPgo is that either Sony were incompetant with implementing their online strategy, or they deliberately didn't do day and date to make sure it failed due to internal politics.

This isn't to say that it would have succeeded had day and date DD been available, but lack of it will doom any console.

For example if every single 3rd party title for PS3 and X360 came out 6 to 12 months later on PS3, how would that impact sales of those titles on PS3? And thus sales of PS3 consoles. Feel free to reverse that to X360, if my using PS3 as an example offends. :)

Now remove the console brand from the equation and include first party titles always releasing 6-12 months later on one console, and you have the situation with PSP (UMD) and PSPgo (no UMD).

Now, extend that to some titles not even releasing on the other console...

So who in their right mind would buy X handheld when it doesn't get all the titles the other one gets, and on top of that for the titles it does get, all of them are delayed by a few months to a year?

Regards,
SB
 
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NeoTechni said:
I'm sure the retailer boycotts, and people not being able to play their existing games had no part in it's failure :LOL:

Yes cost was a factor (and not a big one if sales of the DSiLL tell us anything), but lack of UMD was the bigger one.

http://www.joystiq.com/tag/japanesehardwaresales
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Lack of physical media isn't going to make it fail. Granted there isn't currently a console equivalent but I'm going to guess that this is going to change soon either with Xbox Live in the next couple years or with the next generation of consoles where DD will be offered at the same time as the physical media...

But on the PC there are quite a few people (me among them) who have transitioned to pure DD only purchases. I do not buy physical media anymore. I WILL NOT buy physical media anymore. On PC, if something released only on physical media (very rare, I can't think of any recent titles that do), I will not even consider it for purchase.

Basially prior to day and date releases, DD sales on PC were a niche with very few sales for any title that did not release day and date (Anything not released by Valve). But ever since day and date releases became the norm. for DD, it arguably moves more software than physical media now.

Had PSPgo had day and date releases of all titles, it would have done just fine. Might not sell as many as PSP, but it wouldn't have been far off, IMO.

Regards,
SB
 
NeoTechni said:
I'm sure the retailer boycotts, and people not being able to play their existing games had no part in it's failure :LOL:
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People not being able to play their existing games doesn't affect sales to new customers. Unless you see PSPGo's market as only being the existing install base and Sony can't sell PSP's to any new customers, this point doesn't count. Retailer boycotts doesn't prevent me buying a PSPGo if I want one as I can go elsewhere. The impact of these factors is going to be way less than price.

Yes cost was a factor (and not a big one if sales of the DSiLL tell us anything)
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Are you being serious? You're saying the small price differential (~10%) between DSi and DSi LL is comparable to the large one (~50%) of PSP and PSPGo, and as such the negative effect of PSPGo's price markup should be no larger than DSi LL's? Do you seriously think devices costing 50% more than alternatives don't have a signficant competitive disadvantage that affects sales??
 
As a personal note, I did not buy PSPGo because it would cost me 600kr more than a WII. 600kr is about £60, so I bought a second hand PSP from a friend instead.
 
JPT said:
As a personal note, I did not buy PSPGo because it would cost me 600kr more than a WII. 600kr is about £60, so I bought a second hand PSP from a friend instead.
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Indeed, the pricing mistake with the PSPgo was rediculous. It made ps3 pricing a stroke of genius in comparison. It just somehow feels like the whole thing was an intentional setup for fail. I wonder if we'll ever get the real story.
 
upnorthsox said:
Indeed, the pricing mistake with the PSPgo was rediculous. It made ps3 pricing a stroke of genius in comparison. It just somehow feels like the whole thing was an intentional setup for fail. I wonder if we'll ever get the real story.
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I'd agree that it was intentionally made to fail. Price however wasn't something they could have changed and kept Retailers stocking it. Without something like Xbox Live Points for retailers to sell and make a profit on, you HAVE to add in a fat margin for retailers. Either that or take a large hit and sell them with a huge loss in order to keep the price the same as the regular PSP while making sure there was a fat margin for retailers.

And if there's already an internal power struggle about this, then it's doubly unlikely that anyone in Sony would greenlight selling the Go at a loss.

Now, if I'm wrong and they didn't include a fat margin for retailers, then that's even more fail. As retailers would then have absolutely zero reason to push it.

Regards,
SB
 
Wll I'm just gonna add this in. Internet might not be up to speeds in 10-20 years, who knows. By than we might have a 1-50TB dics out on the market. Who knows whats to say. I wouldn't be supirzed in the gen after this one was ddl, or was still using PM. They might make a disc that is impossible to pirate, who knows. Will we eventually go to ddl only, yes, just might not be for the next 2-3 gen systems. Once the internet can do seeds of 1 gig or more we might just see an all ddl system. Probley is the speed and caps of the internet right now. Why would anyone right now want a DDL only system? Look at it like this, a movie 120min long, takes 2 hours if your running 7-10mb. What happens if MGS4, which is 50Gigs comes out? It would take forever to download, and you got to figure how many people would want to download it. It would be even worse with a game bigger than that. Will DDL come some day yes, will PM ever go away? No, there will always be something. CD came out, that DVD, than blu-ray, and than we'll move on to something else, maybe a USB, SSD, or FM, but in the end we will move on to something else. Heck the PS4 might have Pioneer 400 gig blu ray discs for its games, Xbox 720 might have the 1TB DVD, or just bring back HDDVD, Nintendo might just move to DVD, blu ray. DDL will be here, but so will PM. You think walmart, kmart,bestbuy,gamestop, or any other store will sell a DDL only system, and just sit by and watch the profits fall in that sector? I think not. The issue with PM is piracy, and used game sales. 1. Make it impossible, to rip a game. 2. Make a game good enough at launch that everyone buys it right than and there. 3. Work something out with gamestop, to stop this. Its all very fixable, they just have to do it. Don't worry they'll figure to fix these problems, just a matter of time. It will come down to, there will always be a PM, and there will be DDL only, thats the way it will be.
 
I'm just gonna add one more thing, if DDL does come, how many units will be sold? How many systems/games will these stores sell? How many games wil be rented? It will be a tidle wave around the world, and either the world would imbrace it or it will fail. Will internet be up to speed with higher caps, no caps? Maybe in 10-20 years. If it happens in the next five it will fail. If the Wii 2 has a PM, and Xbox720, PS4 are both DDL only, the Wii2 will be king. People will by what ever system has a PM. Sure the Xbox720, and PS4 will sell, but they'd be lucky to sell over 30% of what the Wii2 would sell. Who ever has the DDL only system will lose the war, and alot of money and customers. No one wants to download a game and it to take a day or a week, no one wants to wait till next month for there cap to be free to down load another game. Less than half the world has DSL,Cable,Fios. A DDL only system would kill the company that makes it. Tell me if the Xbox 720 has a PM and the PS4 is ddl only, and people are buying the 720, because they will, what will the developers do? Keep making ports and games for the PS4, a system that isn't selling, or will they make games for the system that has the wider audiance? There was something esle I was gonna put in here but I forgot. Oh, think of it like this, ppv movies use to be $1.99, now there $4.99, less people rent movies now as the price goes up on them. Tell me how many people download games and compare it to how many people buy games at stores? Whats the esitimate? Like a 20/1 ratio? DDL will happen just not in the next 2 gens atleast. There will always be a PM. Damnit, was gonna post something else still can't remember what it was though. Oh and reason why Fye is failing is because of prices, and the internet. There may alwaysbe piracy, and used game sales, they just need to shrink it, dought they can fix it, theres always some way to rip something, from anywere. Still can't rememeber what I was gonna say, damnit.
 
Silent_Buddha said:
Lack of physical media isn't going to make it fail. Granted there isn't currently a console equivalent but I'm going to guess that this is going to change soon either with Xbox Live in the next couple years or with the next generation of consoles where DD will be offered at the same time as the physical media...

But on the PC there are quite a few people (me among them) who have transitioned to pure DD only purchases. I do not buy physical media anymore. I WILL NOT buy physical media anymore. On PC, if something released only on physical media (very rare, I can't think of any recent titles that do), I will not even consider it for purchase.

Basially prior to day and date releases, DD sales on PC were a niche with very few sales for any title that did not release day and date (Anything not released by Valve). But ever since day and date releases became the norm. for DD, it arguably moves more software than physical media now.

Had PSPgo had day and date releases of all titles, it would have done just fine. Might not sell as many as PSP, but it wouldn't have been far off, IMO.

Regards,
SB
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I'm 99% purely digital on my pc. I will only buy hardcopys if something really good comes with a collectors verison.

Though I'm hearing sw tor might have 50gig instal. So if there is a bluray verison i might just buy that.


PSP GO failed for the reasons PSP failed. Poor software , poor hardware and just a poor plan.

If the psp go launched with new software and all the old software and there was a way to get your games that you bought aleady on umd onto your psp go it would have worked fine.

Sony should have done this with a new system
 
NeoTechni said:
Yes cost was a factor (and not a big one if sales of the DSiLL tell us anything), but lack of UMD was the bigger one.
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Granted, DSi LL is more expensive than a DSi, but it also gives more for the money compared to a regular DSi; namely larger screens, larger battery (and incidentally, larger casing, stylus, probably buttons also I'd imagine).

PSP Go on the other hand offered LESS for MORE money (considerably more money in fact). It has a much smaller screen, and no UMD drive. That is not a good trade-in. You don't want to spend more and get less in return, unless you're either crazy or an idiot...
 
Grall said:
Granted, DSi LL is more expensive than a DSi, but it also gives more for the money compared to a regular DSi; namely larger screens, larger battery (and incidentally, larger casing, stylus, probably buttons also I'd imagine).

PSP Go on the other hand offered LESS for MORE money (considerably more money in fact). It has a much smaller screen, and no UMD drive. That is not a good trade-in. You don't want to spend more and get less in return, unless you're either crazy or an idiot...
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Adding a camera would've quelled quite a bit but they didn't add that either. As you say, less for alot more.
 
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