Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

That's what I'm saying. Amazon sells books. Lots of books, used and new...I buy lots of books from Amazon. News of the death of books at the hands of the DRM'd Kindle has been greatly exaggerated.
as was the death of music at the hands of itunes and others. But its happening and will continue to happen. The kindle is what a year old ? Its already making great strides. Itunes has been around for a decade now and still hasn't displaced cds. But what do you expect. Cds didn't over take tapes over night and tapes didn't over take 8 track. Dvds didn't over take vhs either. Things take time. But make no mistake it will happen. Even if as I said its 30 years into the future still.


The recorded music industry has been dying for as long as it's been around? That's one heck of a long time scale! Here's a hint: If something has recently changed, look to something that happened recently as the cause. Used record sales have been around for as long as there have been records, i.e. ~75 years. The decline of the music industry began...oh, maybe 10 years ago? Hey, you know what else has been around for thirty years? Used game sales. The reason for the music industry's decline is the same as the reason for the game industry's decline: The product sucks. 30 years ago, you bought an album from a top band, and it was a solid 45 minutes of quality, whether you liked Thin Lizzy, the Bee Gees, the Who, Marvin Gaye, or Led Zeppelin. Now, you buy an album from a top band, and it's two good songs with eight tracks of pure, repetitive, uncreative filler, a cynical ploy to give you crap in exchange for cash.
I'm talking of course of when DD was invented. The music industry has been in decline since then. More so cd sales. People no longer place importance on music. Its worse than it was in the 90s because in the 90s you had more diverse airplay on radio. now more than half the stations play hiphop and rap. In NYC there are only 3 rock/ lite listening channels left.


Lots of people don't even want to buy movies in the first place, which is why rental is such a huge business. But DD is perfect for rental, since that's exactly what DD is. Recorded media will only go away if the MPAA gets greedy, and they'll see their sales drop as a result. After all, it's not just DVD sales that are down--ticket sales are down, too. That's because modern movies are, for the most part, terrible and derivative, and the actors and actresses are largely forgettable. 50 years ago, people would go to a movie just to see Elizabeth Taylor own the screen. No one has that kind of star power anymore.

Ticket sales are down but there is still enough people willing ot pay more for 3d , imax and regular tickets so box office is up. That is not whats happening in music.

DD isn't just good for rental. Its great for owning also. You can buy and keep all your movies on your pc and transfer them to your portable devices.



Music's attempt to move to DD as a way of screwing customers failed miserably. Apple introduced DD as a way to make customers' lives more convenient--only buy the songs you want, buy them cheaply, and carry them around wherever you want. And now they're removing DRM from itunes due to competition from Amazon (thus busting your theory that DRM is what makes DD music successful). In other words, rather than viewing DD as a way to punish customers and screw them out of more money, Apple actually approached DD from the standpoint of not screwing customers out of $15 just to get one song on a CD.

When did I claim DRM is what makes DD sucessfull ?



The game industry can't imagine removing DRM from DD games, since for them, DRM is the whole point of DD.
You can gift games on steam. IE get tired of them ? Sell them to a friend.


Almost like DRM'd DD subtracts value from movie purchases. But you know what is successful with DD? Netflix. That's because for renting movies, physical media has literally zero positives and all negatives.
Current DD for buying is over priced. Its still new and like music has to find a sweet spot of what people are willing to pay.

No one from Gamestop is holding a gun to Gabe Newell's head and preventing brand-new games from being sold for $30 on Steam.
Because gamestop doesn't care about pc gaming and haven't for years. PC gaming retail space at gamestop continues to shrink nad has been since i stoped working there in early 2000s. But if yo uread dev comments you would know that gamestop was hugely against the gta 4 DD content and required it to be sold in stores also. They try doing this at every turn with all content.

Currently DD on the consoles is not big enough to piss gamestop off and worry about them not carrying your title or not pushing your title.



Instead of asking, "What would benefit the industry?" ask "What would benefit the customer?" The only reason any industry exists* is to serve customers. DD won't take off unless it's done in a customer-centric manner instead of an industry-centric manner. The problem is that most publishers despise their customers.

if you've ever used steam you'd know how well it serves customers.

NO more scratched discs not playing. No more lossing discs. Download anywhere and use on any computer you own (only can log one in at once to play but you can play other games off line on multiple ocmputers at once) No longer having to wait for a new release shipping to you or go to a store at midnight. Everyone gets the game at the same time.

The only negative is no longer being able to trade your game in. But with steam you can gift your game to someone and there is no reason yo ucan't gift it to a friend and have the friend pay you. You'd get a better rate than what gamestop gives you .


Whats even better is a properly set up DD system can allow you to buy a game and have it stay in your account forever. Letting you download it again when it becomes avalible on a newer system.
 
as was the death of music at the hands of itunes and others. But its happening and will continue to happen. The kindle is what a year old ? Its already making great strides. Itunes has been around for a decade now and still hasn't displaced cds. But what do you expect. Cds didn't over take tapes over night and tapes didn't over take 8 track. Dvds didn't over take vhs either. Things take time. But make no mistake it will happen. Even if as I said its 30 years into the future still.

So the book industry is in trouble... and its not from used book sales like you suggested earlier, but from ebooks now?
 
So the book industry is in trouble... and its not from used book sales like you suggested earlier, but from ebooks now?

can you point out when i said used books were the problem in the book industry ?

The problem with the book industry is cost. People do not want to spend $30 on a had cover book.
 
Wii launched with very little in the way of compelling motion controlled games. Just Wii Sports. DSi launched without a whole lot besides potential. The Xbox version of Doom 3 released almost a year after the PC version and at a higher price (by then, the PC version was much less than $50), yet it did quite well because being able to play it on a console added value to those customers.

Absolutely no clue what relationship that has at all to do with Direct Download.

IMO, Steam has become a major player because publishers force you to register for and connect to Steam anyway when you buy a boxed copy, eliminating the value of having a physical copy in the first place. And they have for a long time moved aggressively to eliminate the customers' ownership of his copy of the game from consideration. The only people left in PC gaming have long learned to accept publishers' poor treatment of them and view Steam as a major improvement over rootkits. But on the console, DD isn't an alternative to having the publisher infest your system with spyware. That's why PSPGo isn't just a "minor player;" it's a complete and utter failure.

Argue the facts all you want. Steam did NOT start to take off until it started getting Day and Date releases of titles.

Having to register on Steam does absolutely Zero for their sales if those titles aren't bought on steam.

A 209% increase in unit sales does not mean 209% increased registration of titles. And this isn't even taking into account the other Direct Download servies that don't have ANY registration requirements from physical media using it not only as a backup service, but as a copy proection service. Direct2Drive for instance.

Steam isn't the only DD service that has seen hugely increased sales coinciding with the move of publishers to make sure DD titles release day and date with physical media.

Regards,
SB
 
Wii launched with very little in the way of compelling motion controlled games. Just Wii Sports. DSi launched without a whole lot besides potential. The Xbox version of Doom 3 released almost a year after the PC version and at a higher price (by then, the PC version was much less than $50), yet it did quite well because being able to play it on a console added value to those customers.

Absolutely no clue what relationship that has at all to do with Direct Download. As far as I was aware we were talking about DD and same day release for titles with their physical media counterparts, NOT cross platform sales.

IMO, Steam has become a major player because publishers force you to register for and connect to Steam anyway when you buy a boxed copy, eliminating the value of having a physical copy in the first place. And they have for a long time moved aggressively to eliminate the customers' ownership of his copy of the game from consideration. The only people left in PC gaming have long learned to accept publishers' poor treatment of them and view Steam as a major improvement over rootkits. But on the console, DD isn't an alternative to having the publisher infest your system with spyware. That's why PSPGo isn't just a "minor player;" it's a complete and utter failure.

Argue the facts all you want. Steam did NOT start to take off until it started getting Day and Date releases of titles.

Having to register on Steam does absolutely Zero for their sales if those titles aren't bought on steam.

A 209% increase in unit sales does not mean 209% increased registration of titles. And this isn't even taking into account the other Direct Download servies that don't have ANY registration requirements from physical media using it not only as a backup service, but as a copy proection service. Direct2Drive for instance.

Steam isn't the only DD service that has seen hugely increased sales coinciding with the move of publishers to make sure DD titles release day and date with physical media.

Regards,
SB
 
In relation to the topic, i.e. a DD-future on consoles, i'm not sure how much we can actually and realistically take away from Steam as an example.

Doesn't Steam now have a huge percentage of the marketshare for DD game sales on PC? Isn't the PC game sales market for DD games now bigger than disc-based media (if not then it'd be approaching it)?

Assuming the above two are true, then it makes perfect sense for video game publishers to ensure day and date releases of PC games on DD services at comparable prices (sans the UK... grrr).

The console landscape is different.... Publishers don't rely on retailers to sell PCs to PC gamers in order for them to be able to play their games. Most PC gamers already have their PCs for many other useful applications outside of gaming. With consoles however, the publishers are obligated to ensure they keep their relationships with videogame retailers such as "gamestop" sweet, hence why i'd assume we're not seeing day and date releases of full game releases on the DD services... and even those that comes late (XBLA GOD) the games are disproportionately priced. It's the same with movies on PSN and XBL.

I don't see anything changing in this regard as the game retailers are the ones selling the majority of the content in the console space. Consumers won't ever be inclined to move to predominantly buying from DD services until the prices come down and the games are released on time... so it's a catch 22.

If publishers bare the risk and start selling games on the console platform DD services at comparable prices to retail at launch, then i can see more and more customers opting for DD as a valid alternative... even if it's just for convenience. But then that's again assuming other factors like consumer broadband speeds are up to snuff... and again retailers would fight it literally to the death, going so far as to outwright refuse to carry those games being released DD, therefore crippling the accessability of a large chunk of the consumerbase to the product and hence the publishers bottom line.
 
In relation to the topic, i.e. a DD-future on consoles, i'm not sure how much we can actually and realistically take away from Steam as an example.

Doesn't Steam now have a huge percentage of the marketshare for DD game sales on PC? Isn't the PC game sales market for DD games now bigger than disc-based media (if not then it'd be approaching it)?

Assuming the above two are true, then it makes perfect sense for video game publishers to ensure day and date releases of PC games on DD services at comparable prices (sans the UK... grrr).

The console landscape is different.... Publishers don't rely on retailers to sell PCs to PC gamers in order for them to be able to play their games. Most PC gamers already have their PCs for many other useful applications outside of gaming. With consoles however, the publishers are obligated to ensure they keep their relationships with videogame retailers such as "gamestop" sweet, hence why i'd assume we're not seeing day and date releases of full game releases on the DD services... and even those that comes late (XBLA GOD) the games are disproportionately priced. It's the same with movies on PSN and XBL.

I don't see anything changing in this regard as the game retailers are the ones selling the majority of the content in the console space. Consumers won't ever be inclined to move to predominantly buying from DD services until the prices come down and the games are released on time... so it's a catch 22.

That is why they need to go dd only to make the tranistion. I'm going to assume for sony at least next gen portable is going to only be DD. nintendo might make the move though I think it will wait. But nintendo is allways behind.

As much as I want next gen consoles to have dd I don't think it will take off till the generation after that. By that time broad band should be much faster and spread across more area.

If publishers bare the risk and start selling games on the console platform DD services at comparable prices to retail at launch, then i can see more and more customers opting for DD as a valid alternative... even if it's just for convenience. But then that's again assuming other factors like consumer broadband speeds are up to snuff... and again retailers would fight it literally to the death, going so far as to outwright refuse to carry those games being released DD, therefore crippling the accessability of a large chunk of the consumerbase to the product and hence the publishers bottom line.

While gamestop my fight it. I don't think Toys r us and other companys will care. Even if the discs have a premium over dd it wont be so big that they will pass up sales. If anything they would have to stock less discs.


Of course consoles may just jump past the hybrid route. With preloading I don't think its a huge deal. Make it avalible to download a week early and people will have 7 days to download it. Also if you've tried wow you can download the smaller client and while you play it will download future zones.

They can do the same with games. Download all the requirements for the first few levels and while your playing download the rest of the data. They can even have it downloading while you do other things like watch netflix or play another game.

There are ways around slow connections.
 
I'm in California. It's raining. Rather heavily on and off.

If I could go home and download (or if I could have set my 360 to download from work or before I left for work this morning) and download Bioshock 2, I'd do it.

As it is, I'm not doing a first day purchase of Bioshock 2 because I don't want to deal with the hassle of going to the store in the weather. The weather isn't expected to break realistically before the weekend, and since I live 'outside of town', that means I won't purchase Bioshock until I come back into town the following week.

The longer the delay between the availability of the game and the actual purchase, IMO, is a loss for the publisher. The hype wears off - warts begin to show and be talked about more than the glorious reviews, friends have already played it.. etc..
 
can you point out when i said used books were the problem in the book industry ?

You quoted and responded to fearsomepirate's statement in post #51:

Somehow, the book, movie, and record industries manage to get along with customers trading and selling used media. If the game company can't survive with the same thing going on, it's because it's incompetently managed and makes crappy products that aren't worth the money they're asking.

Your reply:

This is false. The book industry is struggling . In fact there is only two nation chains of book stores left and one of them (borders) is very close to shutting the rest of its stores after closing about a third of them in the last two years .

Maybe you meant something else, but sure sounds like you're blaming used sales.

The problem with the book industry is cost. People do not want to spend $30 on a had cover book.

So.... buy the paperback version instead? You're coming up with all these reasons why books will be replaced by ebooks, but none of them really make sense. People like books. They care about their books. If they didn't they'd throw their books in a box, but instead they buy furniture to hold and display their books. Books have been around for hundreds of years an they're not going anywhere soon. Eventually books will be replaced by ebooks, but that's because it will be politically incorrect to use trees for the mass production of books.
 
You quoted and responded to fearsomepirate's statement in post #51:

Somehow, the book, movie, and record industries manage to get along with customers trading and selling used media. If the game company can't survive with the same thing going on, it's because it's incompetently managed and makes crappy products that aren't worth the money they're asking.

Your reply:

This is false. The book industry is struggling . In fact there is only two nation chains of book stores left and one of them (borders) is very close to shutting the rest of its stores after closing about a third of them in the last two years .

Maybe you meant something else, but sure sounds like you're blaming used sales.



So.... buy the paperback version instead? You're coming up with all these reasons why books will be replaced by ebooks, but none of them really make sense. People like books. They care about their books. If they didn't they'd throw their books in a box, but instead they buy furniture to hold and display their books. Books have been around for hundreds of years an they're not going anywhere soon. Eventually books will be replaced by ebooks, but that's because it will be politically incorrect to use trees for the mass production of books.

I was sugesting that these industrys are all starting to fail because they are not updated to new tech and that there is some used markets. Of course the used game market and cd market is much more viable than the used book market becuase of stocking issues.

I dunno where used book stores are . Here in new jersey they are largely gone .

People do like books. But people liked their 8 tracks too and I don't see them being made. At some point the older generation goes and the younger generation who grew up with ebooks will take over. Its the same in all the industrys. My parents still buy cds but My older sister at 33 through my little cousin at 18 have no bought cds for the last 5 years and buy only on zune or itunes.

My little cousin now only buys books if they aren't avalible on her kindle and is starting to slowly pass up buying books that aren't avalible hoping they come avalibe.

Books , music (cds , records , cassetes what have you ) movies (8mm , vhs , dvd , bluray) and gamse (carts , cd , dvd , bluray) only came these ways and people are used to it. But it wont allways be that way and people wil lget used to no longer having physical copies of these things.

There is no reason to have physical copies of these things taking up space to begin with. Its a waste of space , money and frankly bad for the enivorment.
 
My little cousin now only buys books if they aren't avalible on her kindle and is starting to slowly pass up buying books that aren't avalible hoping they come avalibe.

That's supposed to be some sort of bellwether? Your little cousin? I know people who rarely use cash and try to avoid using it whenever they can - I'm one of them. That doesn't mean that paper money and coins are going away anytime soon. People like real money. They like the way it looks, the way it smells, the way it feels. Books are the same way because they provide sensory feedback. People like turning the pages. Or looking at their progress at how much of the book they've read. Or the way an old book smells. I realize this and I'm not even a book lover. You cant compare it to a CD or a DVD. the only time you ever touch those things is when you are inserting or removing it from a player.

ereaders do have their place though... textbooks, newspapers, magazines... I can definitely see ereaders replacing them. Novels and non fiction works that people read for pleasure... it will be a long time before they get displaced by ereaders.
 
That's supposed to be some sort of bellwether? Your little cousin? I know people who rarely use cash and try to avoid using it whenever they can - I'm one of them. That doesn't mean that paper money and coins are going away anytime soon. People like real money. They like the way it looks, the way it smells, the way it feels. Books are the same way because they provide sensory feedback. People like turning the pages. Or looking at their progress at how much of the book they've read. Or the way an old book smells. I realize this and I'm not even a book lover. You cant compare it to a CD or a DVD. the only time you ever touch those things is when you are inserting or removing it from a player.

ereaders do have their place though... textbooks, newspapers, magazines... I can definitely see ereaders replacing them. Novels and non fiction works that people read for pleasure... it will be a long time before they get displaced by ereaders.

To be fair, every single person I know that has bought an ereader has almost completely stopped buying physical books.

There are many benefits and almost no drawbacks with e-readers that use e-ink (as opposed to e-readers that use LCDs - horrible).

One of the main draws for me is the fact that I no longer have to keep approximately 2000 copies. Yes I used to have that many, I read alot, especially when I was younger. I've since replaced virtually all my physical copies with electronic versions. And yes, on average I'll reread many books 2-5 times.

When traveling for extended periods, it's much more convient to take 1 ereader than it is to pack up 15-20 paperbacks (when I go to work in Japan for 3 months). As well as to being able to purchase books in my language virtually anywhere in the world without importing.

And that's just a few reasons. Anyway, as is, e-books are the potential savior of the book industry, as the book industry has been slowly dying for past couple decades. Of course, now more than ever, book publishers are having the face the spectre of piracy. And there's not really anything they can do about it... Anything that is released electronically shortly makes its way to torrents. /HUGE_sigh.

Now, I agree, used books are NOT the reasons for the slow death, IMO. I'd put the blame for that on the increasing costs for book publication and duplication combined with steading declining number of people reading books.

Regards,
SB
 
That's supposed to be some sort of bellwether? Your little cousin? I know people who rarely use cash and try to avoid using it whenever they can - I'm one of them. That doesn't mean that paper money and coins are going away anytime soon. People like real money. They like the way it looks, the way it smells, the way it feels. Books are the same way because they provide sensory feedback. People like turning the pages. Or looking at their progress at how much of the book they've read. Or the way an old book smells. I realize this and I'm not even a book lover. You cant compare it to a CD or a DVD. the only time you ever touch those things is when you are inserting or removing it from a player.

ereaders do have their place though... textbooks, newspapers, magazines... I can definitely see ereaders replacing them. Novels and non fiction works that people read for pleasure... it will be a long time before they get displaced by ereaders.

Yes there are people who like that. There are people who felt the same about 8 tracks and cassetes.

Here is the thing though. There will be a generation born that never touches real books and have e-readers. There will be people my age who upgrade because its the newest thing. Perhaps my parents wont upgrade. Though my mother does want one. But eventualy it doesn't matter if people like the smell of books or the way it feels . It wont matter the majority of people will be on e readers and the already struggling physical book side of the equation will go away.

Its the same in every sector. CDs are gone yet because they are installed in a huge fleet of cars and are in homes considering 3 decades of sales. But cd sales will continue to shrink while mp3 sales grow and then there wont be cds anymore.

On the pc considering the harder core nature of it , you will see it happen much faster. As it is from the early part of 2000 to the early part of 2010 the phsyical space in gamestop stores has gone from 3-4 gondalas and video games and mice and what have you to one gondala with getting in 2-3 copies of a new game and they want to shrink that again in most stores. Go into a gamestop and buy the latest graphics card. Good luck with that.

Stores like bestbuy will be fine selling grpahics cards and mice and what have you as there is more profit for doing so. They could care less if you go buy the games online.
 
I think direct download would be a lot better. It would probably shave at least 25% (retailers, shipping, no optical media, no packaging) of the cost off of the latest games and eliminate the need for an optical drive. The developers would also get a LOT more revenue, because they wouldn't have to worry about used game sales and they wouldn't have to discontinue games.
 
I think direct download would be a lot better. It would probably shave at least 25% (retailers, shipping, no optical media, no packaging) of the cost off of the latest games and eliminate the need for an optical drive.

What about the payment to the console maker?
 
I wouldn't expect DD to result in any reduction in price for at the least the first 1-3 months of a title's release. DD is more a cost reduction measure to avoid having to raise prices. Just like the elimination of cloth maps and extensive instruction manuals back in the day didn't result in lower prices.

Regards,
SB
 
@ previous 2 posters: I agree with both of you. But it would still bring in more revenue for the game developers, some of which would be passed back to the players.
 
No doubt, just being able to get some additional revenue from people that previously would have bought used would again allow them to avoid raising prices for another few years.

Regards,
SB
 
I wouldn't expect DD to result in any reduction in price for at the least the first 1-3 months of a title's release. DD is more a cost reduction measure to avoid having to raise prices. Just like the elimination of cloth maps and extensive instruction manuals back in the day didn't result in lower prices.

Regards,
SB

I guess you could say that DLC is another means they used to increase content without driving the average game price up. If game cost is $60, DLC is $20 then the games would have probably cost $70 if they had to include the DLC on every disc. Its the story where the people who care will pay and the people who don't, won't.
 
I guess you could say that DLC is another means they used to increase content without driving the average game price up. If game cost is $60, DLC is $20 then the games would have probably cost $70 if they had to include the DLC on every disc. Its the story where the people who care will pay and the people who don't, won't.

Yeah, DLC is another valuable revenue stream allowing them to maintain current price points. But in that case, it really is more of a profit generator.

All the major R&D has already been done. DLC is a good way to keep your level designers/artists busy while you start work on the next game. And with no physical media involved, it's also very low risk (you can't guess wrong on how many discs to duplicate and package).

Regards,
SB
 
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