corduroygt
Banned
Do they sell millions like their disc counterparts? I'd wager not even close.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?
- Thread starter Prophecy2k
- Start date
Do they sell millions like their disc counterparts? I'd wager not even close.
aaronspink
Veteran
corduroygt
Banned
And?
I was expecting some sales statistics, not the link to steam.
And?
I was expecting some sales statistics, not the link to steam.
It was an implicit answer to your question, yes some of them do sell millions
Cheers
corduroygt
Banned
It was an implicit answer to your question, yes some of them do sell millions
Cheers
Where are the numbers, what's the ratio of DD to Disc?
Also steam is for PC's, and we all know all PC's are bought to get on the internet in the first place. This is different from consoles where a big portion isn't even connected to the internet.
We should all know there is not going to be some abrupt transition to DD only consoles. BluRay optical drives aren't going to be that cost prohibitive moving forward. We will see DD only consoles when DD starts to dominate sales to the point that including an optical drive will no longer be financially prudent.
(Disclaimer: My math may be a little flimsy, feel free to check)
Going DD only is not without costs. Sony moves about 230-250 million units of software every year. If games in next gen or after averages between 10-20 Gb in size at 250 million downloads, you're talking about total downloads hypothetically maxing out at about 5000 PB a year in bandwidth. Youtube pays 1 million dollars a day for roughly 25 PB a month. Google does about 25 peta a day, which is about 9000 PB a year.
Logistically, none of the big three can flip a switch and just go DD only on a next gen console without DD being pretty much basically the dominated method of sales on their current console.
(Disclaimer: My math may be a little flimsy, feel free to check)
Going DD only is not without costs. Sony moves about 230-250 million units of software every year. If games in next gen or after averages between 10-20 Gb in size at 250 million downloads, you're talking about total downloads hypothetically maxing out at about 5000 PB a year in bandwidth. Youtube pays 1 million dollars a day for roughly 25 PB a month. Google does about 25 peta a day, which is about 9000 PB a year.
Logistically, none of the big three can flip a switch and just go DD only on a next gen console without DD being pretty much basically the dominated method of sales on their current console.
We should all know there is not going to be some abrupt transition to DD only consoles. BluRay optical drives aren't going to be that cost prohibitive moving forward. We will see DD only consoles when DD starts to dominate sales to the point that including an optical drive will no longer be financially prudent.
(Disclaimer: My math may be a little flimsy, feel free to check)
Going DD only is not without costs. Sony moves about 230-250 million units of software every year. If games in next gen or after averages between 10-20 Gb in size at 250 million downloads, you're talking about total downloads hypothetically maxing out at about 5000 PB a year in bandwidth. Youtube pays 1 million dollars a day for roughly 25 PB a month. Google does about 25 peta a day, which is about 9000 PB a year.
Logistically, none of the big three can flip a switch and just go DD only on a next gen console without DD being pretty much basically the dominated method of sales on their current console.
Agreed.
That and DD-only = less sales
I dont understand how the DD-only advocates don't understand that most people don't even have broadband or the patience to put up with downloading.
Here's another victim of going DD-only
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/2010/02/the-victims-of-pc-gaming-drm-one-soldiers-story.ars
I dont think you can say that.
I can. It's not rocket science. You think the people who's millions/billions are at risk when they make a decision like that are going to ignore it? They arent. They'd be insane to ignore it.
After Go came out Sony even said they dont see us downloading games anytime soon since it takes less time to buy a car, drive to the store, buy the game and drive home.
Price was a big factor
And yet the DSi XL which costs more than the DSi, and the DSi which costs more than the DS, are both selling fine.
I would have bought a Go day 1 JUST for the ability to use a PS3 controller on it. But that feature is useless since I own UMDs. I own 43 games and 5 PSPs and Sony was stupid enough to make a PSP that they couldn't sell to one of PSPs biggest fans. That's what hurt the Go, not the price.
along with not all games being available,
That's the fault of going DD-only.
Anyone going DD-only will have the same problem
Sony couldn't post every game cause they don't own the rights to them.
Making all games available on PSN wouldn't have helped either. People don't want to rebuy their games at a higher price than what the disc costs. Sony cant make it cheaper cause there are laws against that. Downloading is too inconvenient, a portable should not require a PC/PS3 to get it's games.
There are many factors at play
And you're ignoring the ones that matter.
Do they sell millions like their disc counterparts? I'd wager not even close.
http://www.joystiq.com/2009/02/23/npd-study-says-that-gamers-prefer-retail/
According to a new study by the NPD, 75 percent of players share our preference for retail
http://www.gamespot.com/pages/forums/show_msgs.php?topic_id=27008712&msg_id=315299595
Disc (DVD, Blu-Ray) 71%
Digital (Steam, D2D, Impulse, GamersGate) 29%
http://www.gamespot.com/pages/forums/show_msgs.php?topic_id=26804834&msg_id=310240144
I prefer digital distribution 15%
I prefer hard copies 75%
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Play...opies-of-Videogames-132159.shtml-132159.shtml
http://www.gamerlive.tv/article/ces-2010-gamers-prefer-boxed-copies-games
Purchases of physical copies of videogames, both in their new packaging and used, are said by the NPD Group to represent about 90% of the total of videogames that were bought for gaming consoles during the third quarter of 2009. When the picture shifts to portable consoles, the PC, the Mac, mobiles and smartphones, 79% of the purchases made in the same period were of physical objects
Neo you should read your own links
Its very easy to perfer something when you've never experianced anything else. Its like asking a Ford owner who has never bought another car for 20 years if they like honda cars.
But keep reading your own info to support my claim
AH so 65% of those surveyed were Open to DD if it was cheaper. Even tho 58% had never tried DD the majority was still open to buying DD only.
The fact of the matter is that those who the NPD count are buying retail to begin with. THey are interviewed in stores. Many of them may have consoles that do not support DD or have any signifigant amount of DD titles avalible. Which is all the current systems.
According to NPD analyst Anita Frazier, who presented at this week's DICE Summit in Las Vegas, some 75 percent of game players say they prefer a boxed product, and 58 percent had never downloaded a game.
Its very easy to perfer something when you've never experianced anything else. Its like asking a Ford owner who has never bought another car for 20 years if they like honda cars.
But keep reading your own info to support my claim
Also, 65 percent of surveyed game players said they would be more likely to purchase a digital product if it were 10 percent less than retail.
AH so 65% of those surveyed were Open to DD if it was cheaper. Even tho 58% had never tried DD the majority was still open to buying DD only.
The fact of the matter is that those who the NPD count are buying retail to begin with. THey are interviewed in stores. Many of them may have consoles that do not support DD or have any signifigant amount of DD titles avalible. Which is all the current systems.
We should all know there is not going to be some abrupt transition to DD only consoles. BluRay optical drives aren't going to be that cost prohibitive moving forward. We will see DD only consoles when DD starts to dominate sales to the point that including an optical drive will no longer be financially prudent.
(Disclaimer: My math may be a little flimsy, feel free to check)
Going DD only is not without costs. Sony moves about 230-250 million units of software every year. If games in next gen or after averages between 10-20 Gb in size at 250 million downloads, you're talking about total downloads hypothetically maxing out at about 5000 PB a year in bandwidth. Youtube pays 1 million dollars a day for roughly 25 PB a month. Google does about 25 peta a day, which is about 9000 PB a year.
Logistically, none of the big three can flip a switch and just go DD only on a next gen console without DD being pretty much basically the dominated method of sales on their current console.
bandwidth is cheap however. The costs is muh less than the retailer cut + distubution + packaging cost + medium cost .
Games will also be able to sell for a lot longer and developrs and sony will have direct control over prices . Just like steam they can bring back older titles and mark them down for special sales.
Using your numbesrs. Youtube pays 1m for 25PB . 5000PD/25PB = 200 units of 25PB at 1M per unit your paying only 200M a year. Using your 230-250m pieces of software a year , it be less than $1 per unit of software sold to support that.
The costs sound big until you do the math and break it down . $1 a title is less than jus the retailer take. your already saving $4 (I think gamestop gets $5 a title and walmart $7) You then save medium cost , distubution costs , packaging cost. There would be at least $15 saved by going DD and thats $15 more for devs and sony to pocket. Which is a big deal. Then factor in the hidden costs that would be saved from used titles.
History is filled with game companys taking risks that pay off. Nintendo took a risk and entered a dead market in the states and founded the base for what was to come with the nes. Sony took a risk entering with cds while nintendo stayed with tired and true tech and we saw how that ended. Microsoft came in pushing live and in its second generation it payed off big time.
The first to go DD only will have a huge advantage on the others
bandwidth is cheap however. The costs is much less than the retailer cut + distubution + packaging cost + medium cost .
Yes, but it excludes a large percentage of the market from being able to buy the product. Hence why physical mediums are still used.
The first to go DD only will have a huge advantage on the others
No, they'll have a huge disadvantage. Less sales.
Its very easy to perfer something when you've never experianced anything else. Its like asking a Ford owner who has never bought another car for 20 years if they like honda cars.
Except you're trying to claim everyone who didnt try downloading is unaware of the disadvantages/advantages of it. That's obviously false.
You're trying to say you have to eat a poo sandwich to know its worse than a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, and thats not true either.
And roughly half still did download a game before, ignoring the ones who havent, the majority still prefer physical!!!!
AH so 65% of those surveyed were Open to DD if it was cheaper.
And there are laws against that ever happening.
Sony/MS/Nintendo cannot sell their product for less than they sell the product to retailers.
And DD can never be cheaper than the used game market for example.
The fact of the matter is that those who the NPD count are buying retail to begin with.
That doesnt mean you get to ignore the results
THey are interviewed in stores. Many of them may have consoles that do not support DD or have any signifigant amount of DD titles avalible. Which is all the current systems.
That doesnt mean you get to ignore the results
And all current systems, except DSi do have a significant amount of DD titles available.
They even included Steam/PC!
aaronspink
Veteran
Yes, but it excludes a large percentage of the market from being able to buy the product. Hence why physical mediums are still used.
No not really. The percentage of the market that doesn't have internet access but can afford several hundred dollar game consoles and $60 games is pretty damn small.
No, they'll have a huge disadvantage. Less sales.
roughly the same sales and higher profit per sale = WIN!
And roughly half still did download a game before, ignoring the ones who havent, the majority still prefer physical!!!!
From a study by NPD which is DEPENDENT on retail. Bias is as bias does.
And there are laws against that ever happening.
Sony/MS/Nintendo cannot sell their product for less than they sell the product to retailers.
And DD can never be cheaper than the used game market for example.
None of this is true. They can price the product at whatever they want. They are not, just like retailers are not, bound by MRSP.
That doesnt mean you get to ignore the results
It does when you realize NPD has selection bias.
And all current systems, except DSi do have a significant amount of DD titles available.
They even included Steam/PC!
Consoles are still catching up to PC and DD systems like steam. How many day 1 titles are currently available on the consoles? For the PC, its basically everything.
Aaron adressed you better than I can.
However I think you forget 1 thing Neo. When xbox next and ps4 launch. It wont beto the 10s of millions of gamers that xbox 360 and ps3 have today. They will sell to the hardcore market. Those who buy $300 + systems and buy $60 games. At that point that market can easily support a DD system and over the generation as prices of the console drop more and moe of the core and casual gamers will have high speed internet acess.
2011 xbox next will not sell to those with no internet until 2013 or later. A 2012 xbox next will not hit the main stream till 2014 or later.
Broad band and wireless internet will change drasticly over those years with more and more people having acess to it.
While people may enjoy stupid tiems that come with collectors editions they will gladly give them up so they can actual get teh game and play it.
DD is oming and you can comoplain all you want , but when it comes things wil lchange for the better.
I've never heard of anyone bitching about steam before. I don't imagine i would hear it wit ha properly set up console DD.
However I think you forget 1 thing Neo. When xbox next and ps4 launch. It wont beto the 10s of millions of gamers that xbox 360 and ps3 have today. They will sell to the hardcore market. Those who buy $300 + systems and buy $60 games. At that point that market can easily support a DD system and over the generation as prices of the console drop more and moe of the core and casual gamers will have high speed internet acess.
2011 xbox next will not sell to those with no internet until 2013 or later. A 2012 xbox next will not hit the main stream till 2014 or later.
Broad band and wireless internet will change drasticly over those years with more and more people having acess to it.
While people may enjoy stupid tiems that come with collectors editions they will gladly give them up so they can actual get teh game and play it.
DD is oming and you can comoplain all you want , but when it comes things wil lchange for the better.
I've never heard of anyone bitching about steam before. I don't imagine i would hear it wit ha properly set up console DD.
Last edited by a moderator:
bandwidth is cheap however. The costs is muh less than the retailer cut + distubution + packaging cost + medium cost .
Games will also be able to sell for a lot longer and developrs and sony will have direct control over prices . Just like steam they can bring back older titles and mark them down for special sales.
Using your numbesrs. Youtube pays 1m for 25PB . 5000PD/25PB = 200 units of 25PB at 1M per unit your paying only 200M a year. Using your 230-250m pieces of software a year , it be less than $1 per unit of software sold to support that.
The costs sound big until you do the math and break it down . $1 a title is less than jus the retailer take. your already saving $4 (I think gamestop gets $5 a title and walmart $7) You then save medium cost , distubution costs , packaging cost. There would be at least $15 saved by going DD and thats $15 more for devs and sony to pocket. Which is a big deal. Then factor in the hidden costs that would be saved from used titles.
History is filled with game companys taking risks that pay off. Nintendo took a risk and entered a dead market in the states and founded the base for what was to come with the nes. Sony took a risk entering with cds while nintendo stayed with tired and true tech and we saw how that ended. Microsoft came in pushing live and in its second generation it payed off big time.
The first to go DD only will have a huge advantage on the others
Youtube pays 1 million a day for 25 PB a month or 365 million a year for 300 PB annually. Thats 1/16th of the total bandwidth necessary to handle 5000 PB a year. At youtube prices Sony would pay 6 billion dollars in just bandwidth costs. Its rather obvious that anyone burning through that much data in a year is going to get a cheaper rate, but these costs are not negligble. Nevermind that the bandwidth needs are going to be quite uneven, with the majority needed during the 4th quarter and days of the biggest releases of the year.
Furthermore, thats just bandwidth costs and not tech, labor, energy and property costs. Initial buildout especially in one big go for big enough data centers to handle such a large amount of data isn't a cheap investment. Switching from optical discs to DD may represent a lot of cost savings but thats mostly for publishers and not manufacturers. The enticement for manufacturers to move to such a system is actually to capture some of that revenue thats usually goes to retailers.
A rather abrupt change in delivery that coincides with gen change is going to lead to disgruntled retailers. You going to make a massive investment to DD only to find retailers unwilling to sell consoles that your massive investment depends on. A gradual transition will be more acceptable because with the use of gifts you can actually show retailers that new models works for them. Leading to less chance of an outright boycott of your console thats lacks an optical drive.
Lining up data center investment with the growth of DD on your consoles makes more sense then the abrupt transition thats coincides with a release of a new generation especially when DD was a rather small revenue generator for the previous gen.
Youtube pays 1 million a day for 25 PB a month or 365 million a year for 300 PB annually. Thats 1/16th of the total bandwidth necessary to handle 5000 PB a year. At youtube prices Sony would pay 6 billion dollars in just bandwidth costs. Its rather obvious that anyone burning through that much data in a year is going to get a cheaper rate, but these costs are not negligble. Nevermind that the bandwidth needs are going to be quite uneven, with the majority needed during the 4th quarter and days of the biggest releases of the year.
Ah I see where I messed up . Of course they wouldn't need 5000PB the first year. So costs would scale up each year.
of course it wouldn't be in one large go and steam has no problem handling thier amounts of games and even let you download the titles as many times as you need.Furthermore, thats just bandwidth costs and not tech, labor, energy and property costs. Initial buildout especially in one big go for big enough data centers to handle such a large amount of data isn't a cheap investment. Switching from optical discs to DD may represent a lot of cost savings but thats mostly for publishers and not manufacturers. The enticement for manufacturers to move to such a system is actually to capture some of that revenue thats usually goes to retailers.
A rather abrupt change in delivery that coincides with gen change is going to lead to disgruntled retailers. You going to make a massive investment to DD only to find retailers unwilling to sell consoles that your massive investment depends on. A gradual transition will be more acceptable because with the use of gifts you can actually show retailers that new models works for them. Leading to less chance of an outright boycott of your console thats lacks an optical drive.
As i've pointed out the only retailer to be upset with this would be gamestop and thier used market. In fact for bestbuy having the console have built in profit and going with game cards would reduce the space needed to support gaming and allow them to stock more acessorys. All major stores carry ipods + itun cards. They make a profit on the itune card + the ipod + then acessorys. It will be the same here
Lining up data center investment with the growth of DD on your consoles makes more sense then the abrupt transition thats coincides with a release of a new generation especially when DD was a rather small revenue generator for the previous gen.
All companys already made investments into DD this gen. They would simply need to scale existing capacity. At the start of a generation your going to sell the least amount of software. So investment in in the first year or two will be low and ramp up should be steady peaking in the fall .
Whats more these companys can easily use a bit torrent like service so that under huge load a user is also uploading a portion. Even setting it at 5kb/s would make for huge bandwidth savings. Its something that youtube can't do.
No not really. The percentage of the market that doesn't have internet access but can afford several hundred dollar game consoles and $60 games is pretty damn small.
False. You're basing that on the assumption that the reason anyone doesnt have broadband is cause they cant afford it, and that's a lie.
roughly the same sales and higher profit per sale = WIN!
True, but you wont have roughly the same sales, you'll have significantly less.
None of this is true. They can price the product at whatever they want.
None of that is true, they cannot price themselves lower than retail. There are laws against that
It does when you realize NPD has selection bias.
Then I can ignore you cause you're biased for DD.
However I think you forget 1 thing Neo. When xbox next and ps4 launch. It wont beto the 10s of millions of gamers that xbox 360 and ps3 have today. They will sell to the hardcore market. Those who buy $300 + systems and buy $60 games
That doesnt tell me going DD-only will work
Broad band and wireless internet will change drasticly over those years with more and more people having acess to it.
You're basing that off a lot of assumptions
PS3 games are using 50 GB NOW, PS4 games will use even more.
While people may enjoy stupid tiems that come with collectors editions they will gladly give them up so they can actual get teh game and play it.
So you're saying everyone who likes collectors editions are idiots? That's rather ignorant. if they didnt sell, companies wouldnt make them
DD is oming and you can comoplain all you want
No one is saying it isnt. People are saying you'd have to be stupid to say physical mediums will go away.
aaronspink
Veteran
Youtube pays 1 million a day for 25 PB a month or 365 million a year for 300 PB annually. Thats 1/16th of the total bandwidth necessary to handle 5000 PB a year. At youtube prices Sony would pay 6 billion dollars in just bandwidth costs. Its rather obvious that anyone burning through that much data in a year is going to get a cheaper rate, but these costs are not negligble. Nevermind that the bandwidth needs are going to be quite uneven, with the majority needed during the 4th quarter and days of the biggest releases of the year.
Apparently youtube hasn't heard of head based distribution, you know, like all the companies that actually are in biz to make money off of internet distribution. You know, I bet there is a company that specializes in just this sort of thing.
Also you might want to consider that the so called source for these costs is pretty much full of it and that even his estimate is 1M PER MONTH not day. So in summery, your numbers are full of crap and have no basis in fact.
Furthermore, thats just bandwidth costs and not tech, labor, energy and property costs. Initial buildout especially in one big go for big enough data centers to handle such a large amount of data isn't a cheap investment. Switching from optical discs to DD may represent a lot of cost savings but thats mostly for publishers and not manufacturers. The enticement for manufacturers to move to such a system is actually to capture some of that revenue thats usually goes to retailers.
The tech, labor, energy, and property costs are already being paid. Also for DCD, the data center requirements are fairly minimal. Doing bulk data transfers has been a solved problem before the 90s.
A rather abrupt change in delivery that coincides with gen change is going to lead to disgruntled retailers.
retailers are not your friend. They are not the consumer's friend. They are not the manufacturer's friend. They are not the developer's friend.
You going to make a massive investment to DD only to find retailers unwilling to sell consoles that your massive investment depends on. A gradual transition will be more acceptable because with the use of gifts you can actually show retailers that new models works for them. Leading to less chance of an outright boycott of your console thats lacks an optical drive.
DCD is death for media based retailers. Everyone knows this. That is why the smart ones are pioneering DCD (Amazon, etc).
corduroygt
Banned
Apparently youtube hasn't heard of head based distribution, you know, like all the companies that actually are in biz to make money off of internet distribution. You know, I bet there is a company that specializes in just this sort of thing.
Also you might want to consider that the so called source for these costs is pretty much full of it and that even his estimate is 1M PER MONTH not day. So in summery, your numbers are full of crap and have no basis in fact.
Do you claim to know better than Credit Suisse analysts?
http://www.multichannel.com/article/339947-YouTube_s_Bandwidth_Bill_Estimated_At_300M_For_2009.php
"Even with the benefit of peering, we estimate that YouTube's total bandwidth costs in 2009 will be close to $300 million, or within 17% of our original projection," they wrote.
aaronspink
Veteran
False. You're basing that on the assumption that the reason anyone doesnt have broadband is cause they cant afford it, and that's a lie.
In this day and age, the people that don't have broadband can't afford it in the vast majority of cases.
True, but you wont have roughly the same sales, you'll have significantly less.
Why? Roughly the same customer base buying roughly the same number of games.
None of that is true, they cannot price themselves lower than retail. There are laws against that
No, there are not. They cannot generally undercut their wholesale price but they are not required to price at MSRP just like no one else is required to price at MSRP unless you live in some throwback to a managed economy ala USSR.
Then I can ignore you cause you're biased for DD.
I could care less either way quite honestly, I just am having fun driving trucks through the vast oceans of BS in your argument.
That doesnt tell me going DD-only will work
Doesn't tell you it won't.
You're basing that off a lot of assumptions
PS3 games are using 50 GB NOW, PS4 games will use even more.
PS3 games aren't really using 50GB now. And they likely never will unless they are doing nothing but FMV using bad compression which is like so 1990s.
So you're saying everyone who likes collectors editions are idiots? That's rather ignorant. if they didnt sell, companies wouldnt make them
The vast majority of collector editions are switching to digital bonuses. If you want an art book, just buy the damn art book.
No one is saying it isnt. People are saying you'd have to be stupid to say physical mediums will go away.
So you are calling basically the heads of every major media company stupid?