Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

I find it odd people use something with extremely small filesizes as examples that multi gigabyte games will work.

Its like saying since Gameboy Advance could download games off pieces of paper using the ereader that it would work for PS4. It's a bad example.
GBA vs PS4 you say.. hmm. Is that how you see the current idevices vs current handhelds?

We may have to wait a bit until the average handheld game reaches multi-gigabytes. From my limited observations, last generation's average game size on the largest-medium handheld - the PSP, was below a gigabyte (feel free to correct me if you know better). But since i know you prefer thinking in absolute terms, the current dejure application size limit on apple's AppStore is 2GB (20MB over cell networks). I'd say that the current idevices allow bigger games than the current PSP, if games would not spread across multiple pieces of medium (yes, i remember there are 3 PSP titles that span two disks).
 
GBA vs PS4 you say.. hmm. Is that how you see the current idevices vs current handhelds?

It's as comparable as using iphone as an example

We may have to wait a bit until the average handheld game reaches multi-gigabytes

It's not the average game you have to worry about. Lots of PSP games are over or around a gigabyte. You're not supposed to be setting the bar as low as you can for the average, you're supposed to be setting it as high as you can for the ones over the average.

An average takes into account the ones that went over.

But since i know you prefer thinking in absolute terms, the current dejure application size limit on apple's AppStore is 2GB (20MB over cell networks).

And 99% of iphone games are smaller than DS games.
 
The only major ......
actually toys r us and amazon also have used game sales. Both are quite large.


No retailer that operates ....

The console market is disrupted by platform holders each cycle. When xbox next comes out there will be few people buying them and buying software / acessorys vs ps3/xbox360/wii but retailers still deal with it even with just projetions on what sales might be.

The fact of the matter is gamecards cost pennies and don't work until they are activated. So they cary low risk. If a xbox 360 title is stolen at walmart , they are out not only the $55 or so they owe to the rest of the distrubtion chain + the devs but also out any profit. So its a much more risky thing. They can also get rid of the security around the gaming section , require less poeple to work the game section and they can reduce the size of the gaming section or use the same section but stock more higher margin items like acessorys .


Its not a proven ....
DD games are accounting for an ever increasing amount of pc game sales. Its a growing market and retail is devoting less and less space.


GTA4 DLC can now.......

No it just shows a device that is slanted towards optical formats since that is the only way to buy xbox 360 ful lgames (gears , halo and the likes)

You mention Steam ...

Steam is growing strong , but the continued presenceof retail is keepin the sales stagnet because for many there is no reason to switch.

Show me where DD exclusively serves an audio/visual marketplace as big as console gaming and I will accept your opinion as my own.

Why do I have to do this. I will simply site all the markets in which DD is on the rise. Music, Movies , Video games , Books


What world do you live in? Because in my world DD has grown tremendously in the presence of optical media without taking full advantage of its inherent advantages.

DD of xbox 360 titles is 0% because no retail xbox 360 titles are released as DD . PS3 is slightly higher as I think 3 titles were released as DD.


They would have a problem .......
The problem is that used sales will allways be lower. Many people go threw games in a week or so. The game goes back up on retail shelves at $5 less than the retail. When retail drops the used game has already been at the new price point for months. Used games are allways a problem and will allways eat up new game sales as long as they exist even with a DD system.


DD allows older titles.......
There is no used pc market. So your example is not valid.

Used games allways unde rprice new titles. By the time the DD sales will happen the used copies will have been at those price points for months.



Optical based media has been dominating for the last 20 years and its adoption came in the presence of its predecessor. Thats been true for all the major formats. They outcompete the current format leader by being a more compelling and attractive choice for consumers. You're talking about adoption not through competition but by simply eliminating the choice and at a time when the current format dominates 80%+ of the game sales.

The problem is the playstation / saturn didn't include carts . They ditched the old format and went with the new. CD players werej ust cd players they did not have cassete players. The same wit 8 track players.


Hardcore early adopters adopt every console, its .....

There is no evidence that they wont . By the time an xbox next becoes mainstream we are talking about at least 2013. If not later depending on when its released. The picture of the internet and speeds and DD will be vastly diffrent than it is now.


Its not a huge difference, gaming is an investment thats tends to require more capital then music. And why do you keep mentioning 30 years because I don't remember watching TJ Hooker and listening to RunDMC on DVD and CD players. joking.
Cd's came out in 1982. So I guess its 27 years now.... Shit I'm older than CDs !!!

.

BC is a matter of convenience not practicality. When you a PS3, Sony doesn't come by and pick up your PS2. Gamers' investment in past generation doesn't die because they buy a new console.
But the ps3 doesn't have BC . The majority of systems released don't have BC.

Virtual console is a big sucess because no one wnats to keep a nes with dozens of games around anymore except the very hardcore.



How do you rebuild your existing optical disc library using DD on a optical disc less console totally for free. You can't. You talking total reinvestment in your current library to play on your new DD only console. This is not an activity most consumers will be encouraged to invest
.
THat is only a problem with the first tranistion. With steam i stil have games i bought when it first launched in 2003. Buying xbox live and xbox next titles should be compatible with xbox 2020 or 2030. The amazing thing about DD is that the library can come with you as long as you stay on the platform. We already have this with discs. God of war collection comes on disc and your forced to pay again. No one will want to buy halo 3 for $60 again on DD but many will buy it for $10 or $20 when the new system comes out. Esp if it helps enhance the game cause of the new hardware. So many will find halo 3 with faster loads and more fsaa and anistropic filtering plus the map packs for $10-$20 a good deal.



No you're not because you chop off a publishers disc manufacturing and distribution costs, DD allows MS, Nintendo or Sony to take a bigger cut while giving the options of providing costs saving to pubs. The problem is the additional investment in offering a more robust service and placing it solely on the back of a new DD only console.

Lets see the way you want to do it you have

1) Retail - your still pressing discs , creating cases / manuals , still shipping them , still have retailers taking a cut.

2) DD - you save alot of moeny but now Retail is going to bitch if you under price them. So your stuck keeping high prices



The xbox 360 sold 500m units of software since launch. That is what 5 years of software sales ? Far cry than the claimed 250m titles a year someone siad sony did. The costs would be cheap and rampin will happen each year as of course you sell more software in your 5th year than your 1st year.
 
The xbox 360 sold 500m units of software since launch. That is what 5 years of software sales ?.
It's more like 4 since that data was released in January, so 125M per year on Average, which means probably around 200M+ in 2009.

We can argue all we want, but in the end, neither Sony nor MS will have DD-only next gen, I'll put my money where my mouth is and bet up to $1k if anyone's up for it.
 
It's not the average game you have to worry about. Lots of PSP games are over or around a gigabyte. You're not supposed to be setting the bar as low as you can for the average, you're supposed to be setting it as high as you can for the ones over the average.

darkblu said:
But since i know you prefer thinking in absolute terms, the current dejure application size limit on apple's AppStore is 2GB (20MB over cell networks).
And 99% of iphone games are smaller than DS games.
I think you need to make up your mind.
 
It's more like 4 since that data was released in January, so 125M per year on Average, which means probably around 200M+ in 2009.

We can argue all we want, but in the end, neither Sony nor MS will have DD-only next gen, I'll put my money where my mouth is and bet up to $1k if anyone's up for it.

you should read the name of the thread.


Anyway in the first year of launch the amount of titles would be much lower so its easier to scale up.
 
We can argue all we want, but in the end, neither Sony nor MS will have DD-only next gen, I'll put my money where my mouth is and bet up to $1k if anyone's up for it.

Between the two, MS is more likely to jump the gun, since they don't have an optical disc format vested interests like Sony's Blu-Ray. On the other hand MS are very conservative and not likely to try aggressive moves like this.
I'm thinking there's 50-50 chance MS will go full blown DD, instead of playing it safe with Blu-ray drive.I think a lot will depend on timing to market, the longer it takes for next gen the more likely DD will be.
On the other hand I'll be shocked if Sony go full blown DD.
 
I think you need to make up your mind.
Those 2 statements dont conflict. Iphone just isnt being used for games near the size that makes it a point in an argument about what next gen consoles will use. Just cause iphone is download only, doesnt mean PS4 with 50+GB games can.

The largest iphone game I've seen is smaller than DS's largest. I left the 1$ leeway in there in case there was a few I missed, which I saw as a possibility.

A rather large amount of PSP games are near or above a gigabyte. The 2 statements aren't comparable.

That and I was talking about 2 different things. The 2 statements were unrelated to each other. One was about how PSP2 will need more space than PSP1, not less even though some games didn't use a lot of space. And the other was about how iphone is a bad example to use in an attempt to prove downloads will work on next gen consoles.
 
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DD as only option? Are you guys joking?

Just look in UK and US PSN and compare the sheer volume difference in games (PSP only).

US has at lot more games and still IT PALES in comparison to umd based PSP games. Sure many UMD games are not available and you must hunt them down, if you want them. On top of that even when new psp games are released VERY FEW, IF ANY are available also on PSN.

The other thing is, Sony is doing it wrong, VERY wrong. Each PSN is segmented and divided BY region AND BY country, which means that UK PSN and Germany PSN are actually 2 different "stores" with different games.

To make matters even worse, some countries (like mine) which are part of EU still do not have access to the PSN, if I choose my own country for sign-up.

If I want access to PSN, I NEED TO fake my own country/region and still be limited to very selective choice (per region AND per country) of games.

And yes, PSP and PS3 are widely available to buy in my country!
 
DD as only option? Are you guys joking?

Just look in UK and US PSN and compare the sheer volume difference in games (PSP only).

US has at lot more games and still IT PALES in comparison to umd based PSP games. Sure many UMD games are not available and you must hunt them down, if you want them. On top of that even when new psp games are released VERY FEW, IF ANY are available also on PSN.

The other thing is, Sony is doing it wrong, VERY wrong. Each PSN is segmented and divided BY region AND BY country, which means that UK PSN and Germany PSN are actually 2 different "stores" with different games.

To make matters even worse, some countries (like mine) which are part of EU still do not have access to the PSN, if I choose my own country for sign-up.

If I want access to PSN, I NEED TO fake my own country/region and still be limited to very selective choice (per region AND per country) of games.

And yes, PSP and PS3 are widely available to buy in my country!

Add to that, that as an native english speaking citizen living in a german speaking country, I officially only have access to german content (except for those games that are multi-language). Buying PSone games over PSN is a non-option therefore (well, I actually use a US account to get by this, which isn't the ideal way, but don't have another choice). This hasn't been solved on the PSPgo either and is a flaw of the current PSN.
 
.. The other thing is, Sony is doing it wrong, VERY wrong...

So how does "Sony is doing it wrong" prove that DD-only has no future?
Arguably PSN in general is not very successfull, does that mean that online gaming is not happening? How come Xbox Live is thriving so well and it's not even free?
 
Did I say something like that?

DD is the future, but not in the shape and form like Sony PSN or Xbox live.

Segmented (by region and country) and very limited buying options compared to physical (UMD/DVD/BD games) "things" on internet IS just ... retarded for 21th century.

This sort of mentality belongs in history books aka 18th century!

I'll write that again!

As a regular member and part of EU I CANNOT ACCESS PSN and EVEN XBOX360 live service if I choose my own (correct) country!

Even by faking address / country / region I am faced with the possibility to be banned from service. Really a "nice thing" to give Sony / MS my hard earned money!

From this sense they actually promote pirating for those, where their service is not available.
 
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