Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

[Laa-Yosh]

About game demos... People should realize that making a demo is a huge effort, especially if it has to be ready for the game's release date (or before that). It requires a separate code branch, separate Q&A team and so on.
This is only possible by cannibalizing resources from the main game production team. So either the game is going to suffer for it, by releasing later, or having less work put into it; or the budget can also be increased, but once again that'd mean less then fully efficient use of the available manpower and time (the extra budget could be used for a better, longer game).

Not every game lends itself to easily chop off 10-25% off from the beginning and release it as a demo. Not to mention that any game that's just a bit more complex then average cannot really start to shine in the first 1-5 hours of gameplay (think something like FFXIII or ME). And if there's a long learning curve, how do you help players overcome it in the demo?

Sure, it is a potentially good marketing tool, but it's far fro a guaranteed success. And those millions could also be spent on TV spots, AR games, viral campaigns etc. etc. that might be more effective. Just because it worked for Doom doesn't mean it'd work for every other game, especially nowadays.

As for DD only, I tend to agree with those who think that its benefits are skewed for the publishers' side and thus it'd meet a lot of resistance. It is a good thing to have as an alternative and it'll probably gain a lot of ground - but I'm not sure if it could even get the majority of the market. 30-40% sounds possible but physical media has far too many advantages to the gamer to abandon it completely.

And about combating used games and borrowed games, code-locked DLC is a pretty good idea. I've not bought COD4 for the 2-3 days of fun it had for me, but asked for a friend's copy instead. If there would be an extra mission in there, I'd maybe consider getting a brand new, discounted copy; but if it'd only offer multiplayer related extra content, I'd still skip on it. But in the case of ME2, I'll definitely get an original one, as soon as I can

 

[Saga_Studios]

Going DDL only for the next gen consoles would be suicide. Internet isn't up to snuff yet, and it won't be for at least 20 years in the us, and won't be for at least 30 years for the rest of the world. DDL system would sell, but really only people who have fast internet would by it. People who don't will by the one with PM, and the ratio to PM to DDL would be 20-1. Might be close as the system comes out but people will trade it in and get the one with PM over a DDL system only. The next gen will use discs. I'm gonna lauch my a$$ off when all you people who say that the next gen will be DDL only, and than I'm gonna tell ya, hey it isn't the first time you have been wrong, and it won't be the last time either. You think just because Moblie phones and some other devices use a vast majority of DDL only that consoles will use DDL only in the next gen. You have been trying to predict what a console will do and be like the following gen and most of the time your wrong. Take it like this, look at the history, how many times have people been wrong, about the videogame industry? Ah, it will do this andah it will do that, and when it finally does show up, it doesn't do this or do that but it completey comes out and ah thats what its like, thats what it will do and thats how it is, boy let me tell, we were all wrong.
Bottome line, Internet not there yet for DDL only, Next gen will use Discs, next gen will all have motion controlers, Nintendo will be the first out of the gate with a new system, and guess what, it will use discs. Than Mircosoft will bring out the next Xbox, and it will use discs. Sonys the only one you have to watch out for, I wouldn't be suprized if there console came in DDL only and a PM verison. Heck the next hand helds will use both DDL and PM, thats a fact. Consoles will use both also. A DDL only system will not happen in the next gen. People don't want a system were it takes hours to download a game, get no refund, and is the same price as a PM game. Most of the DDL only syuff downloaded now are Map packs, avatar cloths, props, backgrounds, and small games under 1 gig. Sure some people download a full game, most of them don't, most don't want too, most have played it, owned it on PM and there PM got broke, and they just download it. Tell me if your hard drive crashs in the new gen and you have over 50 games on it, how long is gonna take to redownload everything? They could fix it by usings some type of SSD, or have a backup, but that takes money to do it. People want backwards playablity, with there favorite games that they kept last gen and are playing now on there consoles. People don't want to have to download a game they already bought, just to play it again, to play it online.The next gen will use discs, bottome line. Face the facts. DDL only console is the future of gaming just not in the next gen, after that yes, but not the next gen. I can't to see the next gen systems so I can laugh, and say hey I told you so.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

The next gen will use discs. I'm gonna lauch my a$$ off when all you people who say that the next gen will be DDL only, and than I'm gonna tell ya, hey it isn't the first time you have been wrong, and it won't be the last time either. You think just because Moblie phones and some other devices use a vast majority of DDL only that consoles will use DDL only in the next gen. You have been trying to predict what a console will do and be like the following gen and most of the time your wrong.

Who is "all of you people" and are you going to start using chapter divisions before you lauch your A$$ off or after? never? Your text is unreadable.

 

[NeoTechni]

Going DDL only for the next gen consoles would be suicide. Internet isn't up to snuff yet, and it won't be for at least 20 years in the us....

Agreed with your entire post, not just what I quoted



I was at EB today and the manager told me of a conference the company had on DD. Obviously some of you guys are going to claim bias cause DD goes against their business, but the conference was on why they aren't afraid of DD. They know there will come a time when consoles switch to DD but it won't be any time soon. They pretty much gave the same reasons I did. They said on average, Canadians don't have the broadband speeds and quotas to be convenient enough, systems don't have enough space for enough games (he gave the specific example of how before Wii let you run games on SD cards, he simply stopped buying games instead of dealing with swapping. And Wii downloads are much smaller than PSP games. I told him how my 60 GB PS3 is nearly full and that's just the small downloadables and install files) he brought up how PSN is much slower than Live (I have no basis of comparison as I get everything from PSN, so I didn't dispute it) and how he can walk to the store and back before his computer even downloads an episode of simpsons let alone a 1 GB demo. On average, consumers are not that smart, going DD-only is far more complex than most can handle (as evidenced by the example of they get PSP Go's returned the day of purchase cause people are too stupid to read the label) and they certainly aren't ignoring PSP Go's sales like you guys are. The EB I was at has sold less than 6 total. He even said given the choice between a disc based XBLA game or the download he'll get the disc as it's just more convenient, and doesn't take up space on his drive. He said how he was floored at how little space PSP Go had, it's only enough for a casual gamer, not enough for a whole generation let alone 2. And a portable shouldn't require a PC to get games on to it, it's competitor's don't.

 

[holsty101]

wall of text

Please stop with the whole wall of text thing, -it's incredibly- hard to read and all to often no matter how interesting or insightful your posts maybe people wont be reading them (I know I've not been).

Check out Laa-Yosh's post directly above yours, it contains barely less writing (a few lines) but it's much easier to read on a screen.

Enter key is your friend.

edit
Goes for you too NeoTechni!

 

[NeoTechni]

There are alot of pros to DD only with very few cons

There are lots of cons!

-DD only excludes the ~75% who prefer physical products, those who like collector's editions, those without broadband, those with small monthly quotas, those who dont want to go online for irrational reasons (I have a friend whose dad refuses to let me connect his PS3 to their wifi, drives me batty, for example) and countries that currently have no access to the download store anyway. People who companies sell to now and would like to continue doing so.

-DD puts the storage cost on us, in that we can only store as many as we're willing to pay for space. And those who don't pay for more space get more inconvenience

-No used games/lower prices, rentals, borrowing/loaning

-And as games get larger, downloads take longer. Sony has said they are against putting full PS3 games up for download cause you can buy a car, drive to the store and back in less time than it takes to download. And ISPs are trying there hardest to stop/delay/punish people from downloading large files

The failure of PSPGo suggests that DD is not something that customers want; it's something publishers are desperate for, as they think they will be able to milk their customers for even more money by cutting them off from trading, loaning, or selling games. Restricting the customer from doing something he wants and likes to do is not a "pro;" it's a "con."

Agreed completely.

The important question is whether or not customers want this.

They don't. Multiple surveys have reported the majority prefer a physical product.

Since the industry seems intent on foisting this on us and taking away ownership of the things we buy, the next important question is whether most customers will adjust to what the industry wants, or whether they will simply find other modes of entertainment and abandon gaming.

Agreed.

edit
Goes for you too NeoTechni!

I do use paragraphs, that one walloftext was meant to be one paragraph.

 

[eastmen]

There are lots of cons!

-DD only excludes the ~75% who prefer physical products, those who like collector's editions, those without broadband, those with small monthly quotas, those who dont want to go online for irrational reasons (I have a friend whose dad refuses to let me connect his PS3 to their wifi, drives me batty, for example) and countries that currently have no access to the download store anyway. People who companies sell to now and would like to continue doing so.

Don't make up stuff to try and prove a point.
Also I've bought many collectors editions on steam. Many collector edditions have given up cloth maps and real objects for in game items that easily come with a DD verison.

The only problems with DD is broadband. But that is allways changing , getting faster and moving to new formats. Like 4g. In the states 4g is growing at a very fast pace. Its as fast as cable and clearwire / sprint are offering unlimited data for $40 a month which is cheaper than most cable offers.

-DD puts the storage cost on us, in that we can only store as many as we're willing to pay for space. And those who don't pay for more space get more inconvenience

Storage cost is already on us. Dozens of physical copies take up a ton of physical room in our homes , the fragile nature of discs also costs us extra money.

Hardrive storage is cheap and getting cheaper. Don't mistake 2011/12 for 2005. Today in 2010 you can get 1TB drives for $80 bucks. A next gen system will come with at least that size drive if its DD only. With that You can fit 20 games 50 gigs of size. You can fit 40 games 25GB of size , you can fit 68 15GB games and you can fit 152 xbox 360 games on it.

-No used games/lower prices, rentals, borrowing/loaning

No used games is correct.

But you obviously don't have a clue as to what DD offers do. Go look at steam and the weekly sales. There are lower prices or games because games still need to compete against each other. Yes there is no borrowing or loaning a game with DD

None of these are actual problems. Last I checked I can lend you my fios channels. I can't lend you my music on itunes or zune either.

-And as games get larger, downloads take longer. Sony has said they are against putting full PS3 games up for download cause you can buy a car, drive to the store and back in less time than it takes to download. And ISPs are trying there hardest to stop/delay/punish people from downloading large files

Hmmm guess my ps3 games I bought on psn don't exist. Nice.

There are alot of things I can do while downloading a game. Dinner , Sleep , Hanging out with friends. Playing another game , watching tv. When I go out ot buy a game. I may be able to do things before or after it. But Ican't do things while buying the game. ITs time i rather use for something else.

Agreed completely.

It only shows how clueless sony is. If they knew how to make software there wouldn't be these problems.

You had to buy the psp go. Fully charge it before you could download a software update. Fully install it before you can download any games. Then not all games are avalible.Then for those who own current psps , there is no way of sending your games in to get downloadable verisons of them

These are all failures of SONY not of DD.

Perhaps sony shouldn't make gaming software anymore. Both ps3 and psp have horrible software for the internet age.

They don't. Multiple surveys have reported the majority prefer a physical product

.

Surveys are flawed and only target one segment of the industry and I'm sure like you , many don't really understand the benfits.

Agreed.

It will never happen. People will adjust to the new ways of doing things and be perfectly happy. Just look how popular xbox arcade is and virtual console.

 

[NeoTechni]

Don't make up stuff to try and prove a point.

I didn't. I've backed that up with multiple links.

Storage cost is already on us. Dozens of physical copies take up a ton of physical room in our homes

That's not the same and you know it.

the fragile nature of discs also costs us extra money.

That's user incompetence. That's like me saying DD is more expensive if the user loses their PSN account info

Hardrive storage is cheap and getting cheaper. Don't mistake 2011/12 for 2005.

I'm not. I own multiple terabyte harddrives. Devs aren't going to be able to count on that.

You keep saying my flaws will go away in the future, yea, the future. Not anytime soon.

But you obviously don't have a clue as to what DD offers do. Go look at steam and the weekly sales. There are lower prices or games because games still need to compete against each other. Yes there is no borrowing or loaning a game with DD

I obviously have no clue about DD but you're saying I was right.

Then not all games are avalible.Then for those who own current psps , there is no way of sending your games in to get downloadable verisons of them

These are all failures of SONY not of DD.

No, that was due to DD not Sony. Nothing Sony could have done could have fixed those issues.

Surveys are flawed and only target one segment of the industry and I'm sure like you , many don't really understand the benfits.

Don't make up stuff to try and prove a point.

Just look how popular xbox arcade is and virtual console.

Neither are comparable.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Going DD-only has one benefit and that is a smaller possible form factor. You could add cheaper cost but a lot off that could be mostly offset by the need for a much much larger(and required on all sku's) harddrive.

The many negatives just do not make a smaller form factor a benefit thats worthwhile. It just makes no sense at all. The problem with DD only isnt with the negatives, its that there are hardly any positives over offering the consumer both.

 

[Grall]

Going DDL only for the next gen consoles would be suicide. Internet isn't up to snuff yet, and it won't be for at least 20 years in the us, and won't be for at least 30 years for the rest of the world.

Much of western Europe, and certainly countries in the far east like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, are well ahead of the US - sometimes by A LOT - where broadband internet is concerned. Portraying it as if the US is the leader in this field and everybody else is hopelessly behind is bordering on comically incorrect.

The US has the misfortune of being a very large country that in many places is quite sparsely populated, along with poor legislation regarding the establishment of internet networks. Many regions of the US has virtually no competition at all, leading to low network performance and high prices, whereas say for example Sweden, there's a host of ISPs that offer subscriptions at various performance brackets, and most of them much faster AND cheaper than what you can get in many parts of the US. I pay ~US$38/month (+ tax) for unmetered, unthrottled 24mbit ADSL2+, out of which I get about 1.6-1.7MB/s continuous download speeds.

It's still not sufficient for download-only gaming though. It still takes hours and hours to download the several dozens of gigabytes a bluray disc can hold; way too long really.

 

[NeoTechni]

Going DD-only has one benefit and that is a smaller possible form factor. You could add cheaper cost but a lot off that could be mostly offset by the need for a much much larger(and required on all sku's) harddrive.

The many negatives just do not make a smaller form factor a benefit thats worthwhile. It just makes no sense at all. The problem with DD only isnt with the negatives, its that there are hardly any positives over offering the consumer both.

Agreed

Much of western Europe, and certainly countries in the far east like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, are well ahead of the US - sometimes by A LOT - where broadband internet is concerned. Portraying it as if the US is the leader in this field and everybody else is hopelessly behind is bordering on comically incorrect.

True. However an even larger amount of the world is behind the US. Going DD excludes a lot of people. Only 60% of the US has broadband. You think they want to limit themselves to only 60%?

Going DD only is suicide.

 

[Gubbi]

Going DD only is suicide.

I agree. But it would be an interesting experiment to release three SKUs next gen: One with optical media, one with HDD and one with HDD and optical media, - and let the consumer decide. Discount the HDD only unit. It would have higher lifetime revenue because of no used games/piracy.

Besides form factor, ditching the optical media would reduce noise and heat, plus increase reliability (I'm certain my release 360 rattled itself to RROD).

Cheers

 

[ShadowRunner]

Besides form factor, ditching the optical media would reduce noise and heat, plus increase reliability (I'm certain my release 360 rattled itself to RROD).

Cheers

Dont really agree here as those things only occur with active use of the optical drive. Its inclusion doesnt mean everyone has to use it, DD is an option for those that want it or are worried about the things you mentioned, and the optical drive would never be in use. Its easy to forget that a console with optical drive can act exactly the same as a DD-only console in every way, but also offer a whole lot more in addition to that should the user choose to take advantage of it.

 

[Gubbi]

Its inclusion doesnt mean everyone has to use it,

In an arcade-like unit, with no substantial permanent storage, everyone would have to use it, - all the time.

For the "Elite"-like unit with both HDD and optical drive your point is valid.

DD is an option for those that want it or are worried about the things you mentioned, and the optical drive would never be in use. Its easy to forget that a console with optical drive can act exactly the same as a DD-only console in every way, but also offer a whole lot more in addition to that should the user choose to take advantage of it.

On the consumer side DD is about ease-of-use, period. Smaller form factor, less heat, less noise and better reliability are not the main selling points, they are just gravy.

On the vendor side DD is about lowering costs (no channel need stuffing), curbing second hand games sales and piracy.

The arcade SKU has proven that price does matter, which is why I'm suggesting an arcade unit without an optical drive, but with a HDD (or support for 3rd party storage solutions) would make sense.

Cheers

 

[ShadowRunner]

In an arcade-like unit, with no substantial permanent storage, everyone would have to use it, - all the time.

For the "Elite"-like unit with both HDD and optical drive your point is valid.



On the consumer side DD is about ease-of-use, period. Smaller form factor, less heat, less noise and better reliability are not the main selling points, they are just gravy.

On the vendor side DD is about lowering costs (no channel need stuffing), curbing second hand games sales and piracy.

The arcade SKU has proven that price does matter, which is why I'm suggesting an arcade unit without an optical drive, but with a HDD (or support for 3rd party storage solutions) would make sense.

Cheers

Yes i can definately see a SKU that is DD-only, we already have this with PSP in fact. I dont class this as a DD-only console though, its a console with a DD-only SKU that offers consumers a choice. I think we will see it across the board in portable devices long before consoles though, i dont even see a DD-only SKU for a console any time soon.

IMO its going to be a long time before we even get DD versions of games available across the board let alone a DD-only device.

 

[eastmen]

Well a DD only xbox 360 would be nice. We've all seen the rumored slim 360 and its size diffrence isn't as great as we'd want. However you take the optical drive out even if it is a slim drive and put an interal 3.5inch hardrive and the system becomes even smaller. Or if they want to foot the bill for a large 300 or 500 gig 2.5inch the size could come down even more.

 

[NeoTechni]

Yes i can definately see a SKU that is DD-only, we already have this with PSP in fact.

And it sold so poorly, that no company will try to copy it.

 

[ShadowRunner]

And it sold so poorly, that no company will try to copy it.

I dont think you can say that. Price was a big factor, along with not all games being available, and many may not find its looks as appealing. Also with it not being introduced at the very start many of its potential suitors already had a PSP, they may have chose PSPGo given the choice of the two but are not that interested in it as an upgrade over something they already have. Make all games available for download over wifi connection and offer it for less than all other SKUs and things might have looked different.

There are many factors at play

 

[corduroygt]

Vudu and AppleTV sell poorly, as the only examples of set top devices where DD applies to multi-gigabyte files, instead of handhelds where portability and small filesize favors DD. The small size of a device in a shelf is not a very big concern unlike the size of a portable device, seen by the lack of small receivers and cable boxes (mine is huge)

The best bet for next gen is what the PS3 is doing now, HDD and optical media as standard, but hopefully a full install option as well like the xbox 360. You don' t have to use the optical drive just because you have it, but digital distribution of 35GB games like GOW3, FF13, MGS4, etc is not going to happen by the time next gen starts.

 

[aaronspink]

Vudu and AppleTV sell poorly, as the only examples of set top devices where DD applies to multi-gigabyte files, instead of handhelds where portability and small filesize favors DD. The small size of a device in a shelf is not a very big concern unlike the size of a portable device, seen by the lack of small receivers and cable boxes (mine is huge)

They sell poorly not because of DD but because they offer little to no value since all their functionality is generally already supplied by other devices.

The best bet for next gen is what the PS3 is doing now, HDD and optical media as standard, but hopefully a full install option as well like the xbox 360. You don' t have to use the optical drive just because you have it, but digital distribution of 35GB games like GOW3, FF13, MGS4, etc is not going to happen by the time next gen starts.

Why? We already have DD of 10G+ games on a weekly basis. Many of which are already fully installed before retail availability.