Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

I don't think online access for every play is necessary. It'll be possible to encrypt executables to specific machine IDs. That's the only thing holding back PC security; you have no way of knowing if the machine you are playing on is the machine the title was bought for, and as long as hardware can be changed, you can never know. With closed hardware, every download game can be locked to a specific machine and only playable on that machine. Or account, in the case of PSN game sharing. For a DD machine, as PS3 has so far demonstrated, piracy should be a non-issue for downloaded content.

I'll have to look it up again, but yes, they are going to require online verification for every play of the game. No connection, and you cannot launch the game. They have "promised" that if they ever go out of business or retire the verification servers that they will patch the game.

Saves will also be stored online only. So no connection = no possibility of saving or loading if you somehow manage to get past the online verification.

Here's one blurb about it, can't find the original article that went into more detail though, where UBI soft desribed how it was going to be rolled out into all of their future games on PC.

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/27/ubisoft-to-introduce-new-online-enabled-drm-for-pc-games/

Regards,
SB
 
I'll have to look it up again, but yes, they are going to require online verification for every play of the game.
Sorry, I meant by design DD doesn't requires online access every play. for PC I can see the need for the ponits made above. Consoles don't ahve that, and you only need very the hardware for the installation. That should elliminate piracy on a DD console platform as long as it remains unhacked, and next-gen security should be a notch up from the as-yet unhacked PS3.
 
Sorry, I meant by design DD doesn't requires online access every play. for PC I can see the need for the ponits made above. Consoles don't ahve that, and you only need very the hardware for the installation. That should elliminate piracy on a DD console platform as long as it remains unhacked, and next-gen security should be a notch up from the as-yet unhacked PS3.

Ah, got you. Yeah, for consoles the issue (even on X360) isn't that bad. Risking a console ban for trying to play a copy online disourages a fair amount of people.

Not exactly something you could do on PC.

Regards,
SB
 
The leeches in the game industry are killing it. It can't sustain growth if they aren't reduced or removed completely.
Somehow, the book, movie, and record industries manage to get along with customers trading and selling used media. If the game company can't survive with the same thing going on, it's because it's incompetently managed and makes crappy products that aren't worth the money they're asking.
Used games are worse than piracy and Devs/ publishers are going to fight a war against it and the opening shots have already started it off.
Yeah, fighting a war against your customers is not generally a good idea. That's what I don't foresee DD turning into nearly the cash cow that the industry is dreaming it will be...just like piles of Space Invaders clones weren't the cash cow they were dreaming of back in the 1980s. They're just going to lose customers over this.

Rule 1 of business: Never blame the customer for your failures.
 
Kind of presumptuous to derive anything like that from the failure of the PSPGo. Since it's been released, I've been mostly buying DD games for the PSP. I just didn't get a PSP Go, because it's too expensive. And I suspect that's a big reason for most other people not to get it either!
But if DD is something customers are demanding then the PSPGo should be more desirable than the PSP (which, by this point, is a moderately successful product in the USA and quite successful in Japan). Customers are willing to pay a premium for something they demand. For example, people really wanted motion controlled sports games and the like a a couple years ago, and were willing to pay a high price just to get them. In fact, they were arguably paying a $150 premium, since you could get the same basic machine sans motion controls for only $99.

People were willing to pay a premium to get a DS with a camera and some media toys built-in. They're willing to pay a premium to get the same thing with a bigger screen. But hardly anyone is willing to pay a premium to have DD content instead of physical media, as the Japan sales show:

January 18 - 24, 2010
PSP - 52,909
Wii - 45,167
PS3 - 26,966
DSiLL - 24,059
DSi - 20,373
DSL - 4,966
X360 - 3,343
PS2 - 2,088
PSPgo - 1,773

January 25 - 31, 2010
PSP - 47,875
Wii - 42,309
DSiLL - 34,863
PS3 - 34,431
DSi - 24,783
DSL - 6,811
X360 - 4,089
PS2 - 2,182
PSPgo - 1,645

Sales that pathetic mean the price isn't the problem; it's the product.
 
Somehow, the book, movie, and record industries manage to get along with customers trading and selling used media.
They're not charging (or requiring) $60 a title though. People who copy may well decide to buy a CD after the fact for $10. Whereas $60 is a heck of a lot.
But if DD is something customers are demanding then the PSPGo should be more desirable than the PSP (which, by this point, is a moderately successful product in the USA and quite successful in Japan).
Except PSP supports DD! It's cheaper and mostly better (larger screen etc.) to get a PSP and a Memory Stick than a PSPGo. It's still the cost:benefit ratio that's messing PSPGo! up. and as such it's not a landmark for DD favourability. PSN and Live! are. Look at how well the best-selling download titles do, and you'll get a more realistic idea for how interested the world is in online distribution. At the moment it's not comparable with the best selling disk titles, but it shows there's a market there. If COD:MW2 was only available as a download title, do you think all the current buyers would have refused to buy it?
 
But if DD is something customers are demanding then the PSPGo should be more desirable than the PSP (which, by this point, is a moderately successful product in the USA and quite successful in Japan). Customers are willing to pay a premium for something they demand. For example, people really wanted motion controlled sports games and the like a a couple years ago, and were willing to pay a high price just to get them. In fact, they were arguably paying a $150 premium, since you could get the same basic machine sans motion controls for only $99.

People were willing to pay a premium to get a DS with a camera and some media toys built-in. They're willing to pay a premium to get the same thing with a bigger screen. But hardly anyone is willing to pay a premium to have DD content instead of physical media, as the Japan sales show:

But the problem is it was made to fail. Maybe not intentionally but it was none-the-less.

If you want DD only to succeed, you need at the very least day and date simultaneous release of all titles with the physical media available for the regular PSP. As well offering DD version for a lower price sometime after the first month of a titles release will also help.

Fail that and there is absolutely nothing you can do to make a DD only platform successful.

Just like Steam was a very minor player until it started to get Day and Date releases matching retail box copies. As well having sometimes quite significant discounts after the first 1-3 months of sales (depending on title popularity). Now that it does, it's skyrocketing in appeal. 2009 was a 209% YoY increase in unit sales.

Regards,
SB
 
Developers haven't learnt the art of creating a good demo. IMO if you have the right product and right demo, you'll attract buyers. the only reason you can scare them away is if your demo sucks or your game does. Developers producing sucky games hoping to turn a profit by blueless people buying them on a chance deserve to go out of business!

Crappy games with a demo would sell even worse, so therefore a demo won't be required of all games. If a demo isn't compulsory, (like today) then even good games won't have a demo.

If you don't have access to a TV series through your free channels, you ahve the option to try them out through a box set, but AFAIK no-one does that.

That's because the situation you describe doesnt exist. At least not in any meaningful numbers. Thiink about it. How can a person have access to a DVD player, a display device and enough money to purchase expensive box sets, but at the same time cannot access OTA television broadcast or content on the internet that is free?


No, and in the long run I expect DD to cost more per title. But bare in mind a lot of deals can be damaging for business overall and introduce instability. eg. The supermarkets in the UK sometimes sell games at less than cost to attract customers.

And what's wrong with that? The publisher already got their cut, so if a retailer wants to sell games at less than cost, that's their prerogative. The only ones that could possibly hurt are the retailers themselves, and I'm quite sure they're not selling games at those low prices if they didnt think they could make it up somewhere else.

eg. You buy a bad game for $50 with a $10 deal, losing $40. You sell it on for $25, costing you $15 net so far. You try a second game, repeating the experience. $30 spent so far. You then find a great title for a cost-price $40 at launch. In total you've spent $70 on games to find one you want.
In a DD world, you could have every game costs $60, no special offers and no rebates (which there would be to some degree, I'm sure). You try a demo of the first two games and dislike them. You play the third game and love it. The cost to you to own is $60. Overall you've spent less then with the trial-and-error approach and have avoided the hassle of reselling, while the console companies and publishers get a bigger piece of the pie. The only people hurt would be the retail chains and their 2nd hand market. Some shrewd gamers would feel the pinch, failing to pick up clearance titles, but I think it'd be better for the industry overall.

Or you can rent with the trial and error approach. Lets say I need 3 rentals before I find a game that I like. So 3 * $5 = $15. I find the game I want on amazon for $55 + $10 credit. so I'm out $15 + $55 = $70. I finish the game and sell it to a buddy for $40, so I have back in my pocket $40 + $10 credit from amazon that I can purchase towards a new game. With DD, you pay $60 for the game and when you're done, you're still out $60. For every single game. And that's assuming that every DD game is required to have a demo (which I doubt).
 
I think if these numbers are right, then it speaks volumes at the potential for DD in general.

GameSpot said:
XBL revenues hit $103 million in 2009 - Analyst

Market research firm FADE says Microsoft's online platform sales grew 34 percent last year, thanks to rising average sales prices, top-performing games.

As part of its most recent financial report, Microsoft said that Xbox Live surged in popularity by 35 percent in 2009, with 23 million gamers having now signed up for the service. And according to a new independent study by Forecasting and Analyzing Digital Entertainment, those gamers spent an estimated $103.4 million on the service's wares during the year, up 34 percent from 2008.

FADE attributes the dramatic rise in its revenue estimates to an increase in average selling prices for Xbox Live Arcade titles as well as "incredible sales" for a number of downloadable games. The market research firm found that average sales prices gained nearly a dollar last year, rising from $8.33 in 2008 to $9.12 in 2009.

...

Estimated Top Titles by Revenue in 2009 (Average Price):
1) Battlefield 1943 (EA DICE) - $12.5 million ($15)
2) Castle Crashers (The Behemoth) - $7.3 million ($15)
3) Trials HD (RedLynx) - $7.1 million ($15)
4) Shadow Complex (Chair Entertainment / Epic Games) - $6.1 million ($14.38)
5) Family Game Night (EA) - $4.2 million ($9.53)
6) Marvel vs. Capcom 2 (Capcom) - $4.2 million ($15.00)
7) Magic: The Gathering (Stainless Games) - $2.8 million ($10)
8) Worms 2 (Team 17) - $1.8 million ($10)
9) Peggle (PopCap Games) - $1.8 million ($8.86)
10) Turtles in Time: Reshelled (Ubisoft Singapore) - $1.7 million ($10)

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6249715.html

Forecasting and Analyzing Digital Entertainment (FADE) said:
FADE LLC estimates 2009 revenue exceeded $100 million USD for Arcade titles alone, not including downloadable content, community games, or games on demand services.

http://fadellc.com/

Tommy McClain
 
Somehow, the book, movie, and record industries manage to get along with customers trading and selling used media. If the game company can't survive with the same thing going on, it's because it's incompetently managed and makes crappy products that aren't worth the money they're asking.

This is false. The book industry is struggling . In fact there is only two nation chains of book stores left and one of them (borders) is very close to shutting the rest of its stores after closing about a third of them in the last two years .

The music industry is also strugling. Artists ust aren't selling as well as they did and its been a problem since the late 90s. Even itunes and other music stores aren't recouping the lost sales.

As for hte movie industry they too are reporting lower and lower sales for dvds and bluray nor dd are making up those numbers.

But if you look all 3 of these industrys ahve digital download alternatives and none of them allow for a used market. Yes the record and book industry isn't going to get rid of their core markets anytime soon. But eventualy cds will go away and only dd will be left. Eventualy dvds and blurays will go away and eventually there will be no used markets for these .

Books will take al ong time but I believe at some point in the future 10 , 20 or 30 years in the future books will be very uncommon also.

Consoles are lucky that every 5 years or so they reinvent themselves and launch new ones so they can make the cycle much faster

Yeah, fighting a war against your customers is not generally a good idea. That's what I don't foresee DD turning into nearly the cash cow that the industry is dreaming it will be...just like piles of Space Invaders clones weren't the cash cow they were dreaming of back in the 1980s. They're just going to lose customers over this.

Rule 1 of business: Never blame the customer for your failures.

I disagree. At first there may be some bleeding but those people are not going to fully stop playing and new gamers are born every day.
 
So you will end up paying the same for a worse version?

If downloading is going to work it needs to be better than buying it from a shop not worse.

It worked for musics, videos and bad game ports. Most people just don't care about quality as much as B3D members. I think people will trade quality for convenience.
 
Not for next gen, however I wish they could let you install the whole game to hdd and allow you to play it without the disc if you chose to do so, which would somehow deactivate the disc so you wouldn't be able to give it away. Don't know if it's possible of course
 
If you want DD only to succeed, you need at the very least day and date simultaneous release of all titles with the physical media available for the regular PSP.
Wii launched with very little in the way of compelling motion controlled games. Just Wii Sports. DSi launched without a whole lot besides potential. The Xbox version of Doom 3 released almost a year after the PC version and at a higher price (by then, the PC version was much less than $50), yet it did quite well because being able to play it on a console added value to those customers.
As well offering DD version for a lower price sometime after the first month of a titles release will also help.
If DD is something customers won't buy unless the price is cut, that means that DD decreases the value of the game.
Just like Steam was a very minor player until it started to get Day and Date releases matching retail box copies.
IMO, Steam has become a major player because publishers force you to register for and connect to Steam anyway when you buy a boxed copy, eliminating the value of having a physical copy in the first place. And they have for a long time moved aggressively to eliminate the customers' ownership of his copy of the game from consideration. The only people left in PC gaming have long learned to accept publishers' poor treatment of them and view Steam as a major improvement over rootkits. But on the console, DD isn't an alternative to having the publisher infest your system with spyware. That's why PSPGo isn't just a "minor player;" it's a complete and utter failure.
 
This is false. The book industry is struggling . In fact there is only two nation chains of book stores left and one of them (borders) is very close to shutting the rest of its stores after closing about a third of them in the last two years.
Book industry != book store industry. Amazon still sells lots of books. Any struggles of the book industry have nothing to do with customers' ability to sell and trade used books, as that has been around since Gutenberg. A 400-year-old practice does not suddenly cause an industry to fail.
The music industry is also strugling. Artists ust aren't selling as well as they did and its been a problem since the late 90s.
The ability to trade or sell a record you got tired of was not invented in the 1990s. It was invented when Thomas Edison invented the phonograph. And before that, people could trade and sell used sheet music and player piano rolls. The music industry's struggles have more to do with poor products than used record shops.
As for hte movie industry they too are reporting lower and lower sales for dvds and bluray nor dd are making up those numbers.
The ability to trade and sell movies you got tired of has been around since VHS was introduced. The movie industry's struggles have more to do with poor products than used DVD shops.
But if you look all 3 of these industrys ahve digital download alternatives and none of them allow for a used market.
You seriously have never been to a secondhand book shop? They've only been around since like the 16th century.
 
Fearsome

1)Amazon sells books at cut throat pirces would they be a viable busniess if they just sold books ? No. Amazon has also launch a DD book service. It clearly sees where the future is

2)No it wasn't invented in the 90s but the market has been dieing ever since. We used to have alot of used cd stores in my area and now they have all closed shop. In fact the biggest Ones were CD world , FYE and Coconuts. FYE bought CD world and then Coconuts and this holiday season 80% of the fye's went out of busniess. IN fact only the ones in the 4 malls we have are still open but they are stopping used sales.

3)The problem would most likely be piracy I'd assume. But it doesn't change the fact that even with physical media people are tired of buying new dvds that take up tons of room.

In fact if you look at all 3 of these things you will notice that first music made the move to DD and when it did so you can trade vast cd collections that took up alot of room in the house between the cd cases and cds themselves to an mp3 player or on your computer. By doing so your collection went from taking up dozens of shelves mabye to taking up nothing. Not only that but it made your collection portable for the first time . But most importantly it allowed you to buy what you wanted and not full albums of songs you didn't want at huge prices

MOvies are still waiting for this. Even xbox live is having problems as they want $15 bucks for an hd movie on the service. I cant get a bluray with dvd and dd for $20 bucks. So pricing is still not right. But when it gets right you will see it take off.

Its the same thing with games. Once gamers get over loosing the phsyical collections and embrace the download anywhre any time you'll see a huge push foward. And yes DD should be cheaper but its the Gamestops of the world preventing that . They have way to much power on their hands
 
You seriously have never been to a secondhand book shop? They've only been around since like the 16th century.

I work at one lol..........

As for books going away, no where anytime soon, especially as so much of the world is so poor to afford electronics. Also books are material things that people like, don't require electricity to use, therefore are very robust in that manner. Sure you need a light to read, but that isn't too difficult if you have a candle or a fire of some sort if electricity isn't available, but at least you have the day time. To make a society completely reliable on electronics, electricity and unworkable without it is to ask for a societal collapse.
 
1)Amazon sells books at cut throat pirces
That's what I'm saying. Amazon sells books. Lots of books, used and new...I buy lots of books from Amazon. News of the death of books at the hands of the DRM'd Kindle has been greatly exaggerated.
2)No it wasn't invented in the 90s but the market has been dieing ever since.
The recorded music industry has been dying for as long as it's been around? That's one heck of a long time scale! Here's a hint: If something has recently changed, look to something that happened recently as the cause. Used record sales have been around for as long as there have been records, i.e. ~75 years. The decline of the music industry began...oh, maybe 10 years ago? Hey, you know what else has been around for thirty years? Used game sales. The reason for the music industry's decline is the same as the reason for the game industry's decline: The product sucks. 30 years ago, you bought an album from a top band, and it was a solid 45 minutes of quality, whether you liked Thin Lizzy, the Bee Gees, the Who, Marvin Gaye, or Led Zeppelin. Now, you buy an album from a top band, and it's two good songs with eight tracks of pure, repetitive, uncreative filler, a cynical ploy to give you crap in exchange for cash.
3)The problem would most likely be piracy I'd assume. But it doesn't change the fact that even with physical media people are tired of buying new dvds that take up tons of room.
Lots of people don't even want to buy movies in the first place, which is why rental is such a huge business. But DD is perfect for rental, since that's exactly what DD is. Recorded media will only go away if the MPAA gets greedy, and they'll see their sales drop as a result. After all, it's not just DVD sales that are down--ticket sales are down, too. That's because modern movies are, for the most part, terrible and derivative, and the actors and actresses are largely forgettable. 50 years ago, people would go to a movie just to see Elizabeth Taylor own the screen. No one has that kind of star power anymore.
In fact if you look at all 3 of these things you will notice that first music made the move to DD
Music's attempt to move to DD as a way of screwing customers failed miserably. Apple introduced DD as a way to make customers' lives more convenient--only buy the songs you want, buy them cheaply, and carry them around wherever you want. And now they're removing DRM from itunes due to competition from Amazon (thus busting your theory that DRM is what makes DD music successful). In other words, rather than viewing DD as a way to punish customers and screw them out of more money, Apple actually approached DD from the standpoint of not screwing customers out of $15 just to get one song on a CD.

The game industry can't imagine removing DRM from DD games, since for them, DRM is the whole point of DD.
MOvies are still waiting for this. Even xbox live is having problems as they want $15 bucks for an hd movie on the service.
Almost like DRM'd DD subtracts value from movie purchases. But you know what is successful with DD? Netflix. That's because for renting movies, physical media has literally zero positives and all negatives.
And yes DD should be cheaper but its the Gamestops of the world preventing that . They have way to much power on their hands
No one from Gamestop is holding a gun to Gabe Newell's head and preventing brand-new games from being sold for $30 on Steam.

Instead of asking, "What would benefit the industry?" ask "What would benefit the customer?" The only reason any industry exists* is to serve customers. DD won't take off unless it's done in a customer-centric manner instead of an industry-centric manner. The problem is that most publishers despise their customers.

*The obvious exception government-run industries, which exist to transfer tax dollars to the employees.
 
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I work at one lol..........

As for books going away, no where anytime soon, especially as so much of the world is so poor to afford electronics. Also books are material things that people like, don't require electricity to use, therefore are very robust in that manner. Sure you need a light to read, but that isn't too difficult if you have a candle or a fire of some sort if electricity isn't available, but at least you have the day time. To make a society completely reliable on electronics, electricity and unworkable without it is to ask for a societal collapse.

Books take up a huge amount of room. Mine are all boxed now and in my basement. If there was an reader that fit my needs then I would surely start to buy exclusively on said reader. If the ms book thing comes out with the 2 screen set up and it was good for reading i would certianly buy it.

I'm so happy i went to DD only on music. I got rid of about 500 cds. and those 500 cds took up less room than 100 books. I'm currently ripping all my dvds so i can box them up and with that done i wil lget rid of over 1000 dvds. I'm about 300 into it and the room i've recouped is amazing. I can't wait for it all to be gone. I am even ripping my blurays as hterei s no need for them.


Books though. That akes up the most in the house. Everyone in my house reads so much we have thousands of books.

Books may not go away every where. But as kindles and the like get cheaper and more advanced The USA and Europe will surely start to greatly cut back on book purchases. There is nothing like having your whole book collection with you. People are going to get used to having their whole collection of music and soon movies and in the future books not to go with DD.
 
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