Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

I hope so, that at least all launch titles are added to DD alongside their retail releases, and that they are cheaper... Oh, and no region blocking.

Being a gamer living on Brazil would be much easier this way :p
 
I guess it's reasonable to assume that it could work in the same or a similar way on consoles, but will MS' and Sony's XBL & PSN cards be enough to appease the wraith of most videogame retailers, of which a huge chunk of their profits comes from the used game market.

I get that pulishers will want to get rid of the used game market for how it negatively affects them, however i don't see retailers lying down and allowing a major source of their cashflow to be dragged out from under them. And again, thinking about it pragmatically, what would be the point of a video game store that only has shelves stocked with cards and no games?!? :-S

Both Sony, MS & the game publishers will have to do a whole lost more to appease retailers than simply offering PSN/XBL voucher cards.

I think MS, Sony, and most game publishers wouldn't shed a tear if dedicated gaming stores went out of business. I can't speak for Europe, but in the US, I'm sure Walmart and other department stores would be more than happy to sell Consoles and Game Cards.

With MS requiring cards for points to purchase things on Live, it means consumers have to buy them at a retail outlet. MS were really smart to do that. If they only required credit cards OR cash cards, then you'd have a lot of people just using credit and thus retailers would be far less supportive of Digital Download games.

I'm going to predict that if Digital Distribution becomes a significant option for next gen consoles, that Sony will abolish credit card purchases on PSN and go with a Points system also.

And remember, there's probably going to be a transition period where Physical Media co-exists with Digital Downloads. Maybe 1 or 2 generations depending on the penetration of broadband without caps.

Oh and one last thing. Point Cards while not advantageous for Game stores, is quite attractive for department stores and...Convenience stores (7 Eleven for example). Less shelf space, and people HAVE to buy them anyways, in the case of MS Points.

Regards,
SB
 
There are alot of pros to DD only with very few cons


1) Hardrive space is cheap. Without a optical drive in the case you recover alot of internal space which would easily allow a standard 3.5inch hardrive (smaller than optical drives) 3.5 inch hardrives offer 1TB , 1.5TB , 2TB today. By the time next gen is out 3TB drives will avalible.

2) Speed . A 3.5inch hardrive is fast. Wd cavalier black drives are great , your looking at 60 to 180 MB/s performance and very very low seek times which is something an optical drive can't match.

3) Noise. A hardrive will make less noise than a fast optical drive. Te ps3 is silent or very low in noise but its only a 2x drive. Moving foward to get speed increases they will spin the disc faster creating more noise.

4) SSD option. They are expensive now but in the future that may not be the case. These drives are extremely fast , make no noise and use little power . They are also normaly 2.5inch drives. the only problem is 60 gigs is generaly $200 . however later this year intel will be moving foward on its new process hopping to double capacity at the same price points. By the end of the next console gen tehse would be perfect for slim style refreshes

5) Cost you get a higher intial cost as I'm sure a hardrive is more expensive than either of the major optical drives. But over time you can continue to increase the size of your drive making the package more attractive. You can't do that with optical. You also get the cost savings on teh other side of the process. No more pressing discs , maintaining inventory , box and art costs , shipping and retailer cuts are all gone. you can recoup a good $20-$30 cutting thatout.

6) Used games. in one swoop you can get rid of the used game market thus allowing titles to retain the value longer and not having to loose sales due to your major retailer selling a used verison for $5 less.



Sure gamestop will be against this but there will be tons of stores that would be willing to sell the console if there is a market feefor them to make money with.
 
I think that the future of digital distribution is streamed content. You won't have a big harddrive with the games on it, possibly just a small cache. You will have to be signed in to play.

I also think that there is a good chance that it'll spark a resurgence of the PC as a gaming platform.

It will significantly reduce piracy, and it opens up models like pay to play, which I think are at least intriguing.

Now I don't think that's necessarilly next gen, but I also don't think it's a long way off.
 
The failure of PSPGo suggests that DD is not something that customers want; it's something publishers are desperate for, as they think they will be able to milk their customers for even more money by cutting them off from trading, loaning, or selling games. Restricting the customer from doing something he wants and likes to do is not a "pro;" it's a "con."

The important question is whether or not customers want this. Publishers are sadly mistaken if they think today's customers will be happy paying $60 for a game, beating it over the weekend, and then not being able to trade it in. They'll have to slash prices for downloadable games, so in the end, they won't make nearly as much money as they think they're going to.

Since the industry seems intent on foisting this on us and taking away ownership of the things we buy, the next important question is whether most customers will adjust to what the industry wants, or whether they will simply find other modes of entertainment and abandon gaming.
 
It will significantly reduce piracy, and it opens up models like pay to play, which I think are at least intriguing.
You nuts, man?

Why would anyone in their right mind want their own PC to turn into a coin-op machine? That's just stupid. I'm absolutely convinced it's Bobby Kotick's wet dream though; lock people in by requiring them to be signed in to an account, then nickle and dime them to death to play any games.
 
The failure of PSPGo suggests that DD is not something that customers want

Kind of presumptuous to derive anything like that from the failure of the PSPGo. Since it's been released, I've been mostly buying DD games for the PSP. I just didn't get a PSP Go, because it's too expensive. And I suspect that's a big reason for most other people not to get it either!

You could just as easily derive the opposite from the success of the App Store on the iPhone and iPod Touch. Do you think you'll be able to buy any disc-based applications for the iPad once that comes out? Or that there is no future for iPod/iPhone gaming unless Apple starts selling disc-drive add-ons?
 
Kind of presumptuous to derive anything like that from the failure of the PSPGo. Since it's been released, I've been mostly buying DD games for the PSP. I just didn't get a PSP Go, because it's too expensive. And I suspect that's a big reason for most other people not to get it either!

You could just as easily derive the opposite from the success of the App Store on the iPhone and iPod Touch. Do you think you'll be able to buy any disc-based applications for the iPad once that comes out? Or that there is no future for iPod/iPhone gaming unless Apple starts selling disc-drive add-ons?

Aye the problem with the PSP Go is having to make sure there is a large incentive for Game Stores and Department stores to carry it despite its lack of games.

For example, traditionally consoles are sold with thin margins (in the past even with negative margins) but games and accessories for such are priced with good retailer margins.

PSP Go means the only avenue for revenus for stores selling it is the console itself. Without something like Microsofts Points method of online purchasing, there is no incentive for stores to sell it if it doesn't have a large margin built in.

The PSP Go was a product basically designed to fail as a digital distribution platform. Thus it only serves as an example of what not to do, then as vindication that DD can't work.

Regards,
SB
 
@Grall
ERP is a dev, so I imagine that is why he finds pay-to-play models intriging.

Personally, I don't think there is a game out there that I would pay a monthly subscription to play. But I would be fully on board with DD games. Not having to get off the couch to swap discs to play another game is reason enough for me.
 
The failure of PSPGo suggests that DD is not something that customers want; it's something publishers are desperate for, as they think they will be able to milk their customers for even more money by cutting them off from trading, loaning, or selling games. Restricting the customer from doing something he wants and likes to do is not a "pro;" it's a "con."

So does the failure of the psp prove that no one wants physical media ?

The psp is not a good thing to point out . The original psp failed to gain any signifigant market share compared to other handhelds and had horrible software sales.

THe psp go not only had to deal with that legacy but there is no way to copy your umd games over to te psp go and in some ways its not as good as the original psp which is now a 4 or 5 year old system ? Older mabye ?

The important question is whether or not customers want this. Publishers are sadly mistaken if they think today's customers will be happy paying $60 for a game, beating it over the weekend, and then not being able to trade it in. They'll have to slash prices for downloadable games, so in the end, they won't make nearly as much money as they think they're going to.

Gamers will just learn to make smarter choices. As it is you buy a $60 game and beat it over the weekend and you just spent $30 bucks or so for the privliage of doing so.

Steam has great games at good prices. THey are able to constantly change whats being pushed on the main pages.

Since the industry seems intent on foisting this on us and taking away ownership of the things we buy, the next important question is whether most customers will adjust to what the industry wants, or whether they will simply find other modes of entertainment and abandon gaming.

The leeches in the game industry are killing it. It can't sustain growth if they aren't reduced or removed completely.

Used games are worse than piracy and Devs/ publishers are going to fight a war against it and the opening shots have already started it off. Devs have already started including codes to get additonal content with purchase. Gears 2 , Mass effect 2 , ea games , rock band , guitar hero have all done this and its only going to snow ball from there. And why wouldn't they start to attack this . Gamestop sells a new game for $60 bucks. But buy back that same game day of release for $25-35 and sell it for $55. It eats into their games sales and in the end its bad for consumers also because they are ripped off.

Piracy is the other problem and going to dd solutions next gen or the gen after would largely be removed as the console would check online to make sure everything is valid.
 
So does the failure of the psp prove that no one wants physical media ?

The psp is not a good thing to point out . The original psp failed to gain any signifigant market share compared to other handhelds and had horrible software sales.
:oops: It's sold >50 million units. What other non-Nintendo handheld has even come close to that? It's software hasn't been wow, but it's been a market publishers have pursued and some titles like Monster Hunter have performed extremely well. PSP isn't a success like DS or PSOne, but it far from a failure too.

As Arwin points out though, the lack of interest in Go in down to price. If Go was cheaper than the UMD PSP, as many of us were anticipating, I imagine it'd have spurred sales a good degree. Losing the benefits (and inconveniences) of hard media needs to be offset by gains. Go is just an accumulation of losses, a poor value proposition indeed.
 
:oops: It's sold >50 million units. What other non-Nintendo handheld has even come close to that? It's software hasn't been wow

That should be software sales, I reckon. ;) Lots of games on the PSP that have no mobile equivalent.
 
The PSPGo is overpriced, my old PSP died on me a while back and I looked at getting a PSPGo. But it costs more than the Wii and looking from the complaints on the EU blog, it doesnt seem that all new games actually gets released as a DD.
So I canned the idea and bought a used PSP from a friend instead.
 
I said this before in another thread and I'll say it again... It makes no sense to me that end users want to go to a DD model. Most of the pros favor the publisher and platform holder at the expense of the end users. DD games won't be any cheaper, so what's the incentive?

Let's say for instance you buy a game you thought would be really fun. But after playing it's not as fun *ahem assassin's creed* as you thought it would be. With physical media you could sell it or trade it to someone else or even give it away if you hated it enough. With DD you cant do anything with it. You're stuck with a $60 virtual paperweight.

I know that publishers want to make money, and I want them to make money too, but they need to do it by figuring out a way to stop gamestop from leeching.
 
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With suitable demos, buying a turkey isn't an issue. In fact if every single game was a download trial+unlock, it might invite gamers to experiment more. I'm hearing fun things about MAG. If I could experience it for myself, I may be swayed, but without that experience I'm not going to buy. A well crafted DD platform would aid this. Also, something I'm a little surprised hasn't happened with the current DD games, publishers could release lightweight small versions of intended titles and gauge response. If the market is big enough, turn it into a full-fledged game. If not, you ahven't spent many millions on a dud. As an example, Snowblind Studios haven't released a CON type game for years. They could have released a small random-dungeon hack-n-slash a year ago using a mini-engine build and sold it as a DD title, generating interest, testing ideas and evaluating feedback. this could also hide long download times. You could ahve the minigame that people buy and play as a PSN/Aracde title, while in the background during play it's downloading the game proper. Several hours of play later you've actually downloaded the full game (or enough of it to start) and have that option to upgrade.

Certain IPs could also become subscription based. FIFA is released every year often with existing FIFA owners buying the next iteration. Why not instead charge a subscription to join the FIFA club and get new game updates along with extras, all elliminating the physical-media hassles?

As for the lack of resale, the fact people are willing to subscribe to TV channels instead of buying box-sets shows it's not a huge issue. I don't know anyone who watches no TV channels and instead only ever buys box-sets of new series not knowing if they're any good or not, and then either keeps them or sells them on!

As for price reductions, the market will naturally respond. Sure, we may not have competition driving down prices, but if the price is more than people want to pay, it'll have to get discounted eventually. We already see that with current DD titles.
 
With suitable demos, buying a turkey isn't an issue.

Problem is that a demo doesnt capture the essence of a full size game and can actually hurt game sales. That's why many games don't have demos and there's no reason to believe that trend will not continue if games go DD. In fact, in a DD only world the end user will be at even greater risk of buying a dud because you can't rent games to try out either.

As for the lack of resale, the fact people are willing to subscribe to TV channels instead of buying box-sets shows it's not a huge issue. I don't know anyone who watches no TV channels and instead only ever buys box-sets of new series not knowing if they're any good or not, and then either keeps them or sells them on!

You can't be serious. TV shows in a box are very expensive. Watching TV episodes as it airs is free. So of course fewer people will buy the box set compared to those that watch the free episodes.

As for price reductions, the market will naturally respond. Sure, we may not have competition driving down prices, but if the price is more than people want to pay, it'll have to get discounted eventually. We already see that with current DD titles.

I preordered Uncharted 2 (or maybe it was MW2) from amazon for $55 and got a 20 dollar credit as an incentive. I used that $20 credit towards preordering Bioshock 2 and I'm getting a $10 credit for that game as well. Do you honestly believe you could get a deals like that if the only place you could buy games was from the PS store?
 
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Problem is that a demo doesnt capture the essence of a full size game and can actually hurt game sales.
Developers haven't learnt the art of creating a good demo. IMO if you have the right product and right demo, you'll attract buyers. the only reason you can scare them away is if your demo sucks or your game does. Developers producing sucky games hoping to turn a profit by blueless people buying them on a chance deserve to go out of business!

You can't be serious. TV shows in a box are very expensive. Watching TV episodes as it airs is free. So of course fewer people will buy the box set compared to those that watch the free episodes.
If you don't have access to a TV series through your free channels, you ahve the option to try them out through a box set, but AFAIK no-one does that. I don't know anyone who will buy DVD box sets on a chance. Even people who don't subscribe like myself, who ahve the option to buy a box set of a series I know nothing about, I won't do it. If Heroes or Dollhouse weren't showing on terrestrial TV, I wouldn't ever watch them, even though I have the option of buying a box set for £40 and then selling it on if I don't like it. That's not a way people experiment with their TV programmes. I don't know how gaming compares, whether people do buy with one on on the resale if they don't like it, but even if they do, that's not typical behaviour for media and I don't think consumer expect to be able to sell their content on after using it; certainly not to the degree that they will refuse to buy without the resale option.

I preordered Uncharted 2 from amazon for $55 and got a 20 dollar credit as an incentive. Do you honestly believe you could get a deal like that if the only place you could buy games was from the PS store?
No, and in the long run I expect DD to cost more per title. But bare in mind a lot of deals can be damaging for business overall and introduce instability. eg. The supermarkets in the UK sometimes sell games at less than cost to attract customers. The game retailers can't compete with this. But if every shopper sought only the special deals and didn't succumb to other sales, no money would be made on selling games. Basically consumers would pay nothing for everything if they could, but then the whole world would collapse. Everything has an inherent cost and people need to pay it, one way or another. So games may increase in price, certainly for those who are used to bargain-basement budget deal-hunting, but I think the system could be balanced that people spend smarter. There's no need to find a game you might not like at a bargain price with one eye on the resale, if instead you can try everything, know if you like it or not, and are being asked a fair price for it knowing if that's out of your price range now, you can wait six months and get it cheaper.

eg. You buy a bad game for $50 with a $10 deal, losing $40. You sell it on for $25, costing you $15 net so far. You try a second game, repeating the experience. $30 spent so far. You then find a great title for a cost-price $40 at launch. In total you've spent $70 on games to find one you want. In a DD world, you could have every game costs $60, no special offers and no rebates (which there would be to some degree, I'm sure). You try a demo of the first two games and dislike them. You play the third game and love it. The cost to you to own is $60. Overall you've spent less then with the trial-and-error approach and have avoided the hassle of reselling, while the console companies and publishers get a bigger piece of the pie. The only people hurt would be the retail chains and their 2nd hand market. Some shrewd gamers would feel the pinch, failing to pick up clearance titles, but I think it'd be better for the industry overall.
 
It will be impossible to eliminate piracy without forcing users to connect to internet.

Having said that, I think it is inevitable that once in a future, MS or Sony will follow this route - even though there will be people complaining that they don't connect their console to internet when they do have internet connection.
 
It will be impossible to eliminate piracy without forcing users to connect to internet.

Having said that, I think it is inevitable that once in a future, MS or Sony will follow this route - even though there will be people complaining that they don't connect their console to internet when they do have internet connection.

There's already a PC game publisher that is going to require an online connection verification of your game everytime you want to play it. Can't remember which publisher, I think UBIsoft?

Even Valve w/Steam hasn't gone to those lengths "yet."

But I can see many publishers looking to see how well that goes. And if it does decently then you may see more and more devs moving to that. In addition to the current trend of Free DLC available only to purchasers of new games or Paid for purchasers of used games.

Regards,
SB
 
I don't think online access for every play is necessary. It'll be possible to encrypt executables to specific machine IDs. That's the only thing holding back PC security; you have no way of knowing if the machine you are playing on is the machine the title was bought for, and as long as hardware can be changed, you can never know. With closed hardware, every download game can be locked to a specific machine and only playable on that machine. Or account, in the case of PSN game sharing. For a DD machine, as PS3 has so far demonstrated, piracy should be a non-issue for downloaded content.
 
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