General Next Generation Rumors and Discussions [Post GDC 2020]

[Deleted member 13524]

Do we happen to know what the numbers were for Navi 10 in that time frame?

They were explosive, of course.

 

[MrFox]

So many questions on that translation..

How does a chip start mass production and right afterwards is "nowhere to be seen"? They cancelled mass production?
Sony cancelled the PS5 over fear of the competition, is that his suggestion? Oh well our platform competitor whom we're outselling over 2:1 has a slightly faster chip so let's just pack our shit and leave. Better luck in 8 years I guess.
Or they cancelled Oberon and something else is coming, for an inevitably delayed console at this point?
Or are they just making the SoCs disappear after producing them, in an elaborate trick of magic for the crowd? Or are the SoCs invisible?

All of those questions are easily answered by "it was baseless bullshitting".

Production pipelines are well oiled machines, they get scheduled based on a hundred suppliers feeding the main assembly like foxconn etc... It doesn't just start as soon as there's a hole next week at tsmc. We have so little data this is a little stupid to speculate based on tsmc schedule in april for a launch in november.

 

[Proelite]

All of those questions are easily answered by "it was baseless bullshitting".

AquariusZ is a TSMC insider. He has a good track record for leaks but his conclusions on them are juvenile.

 

[MrFox]

AquariusZ is a TSMC insider. He has a good track record for leaks but his conclusions on them are juvenile.

He's leaking the client list and never got caught, and none of the clients ever changed the codename?
It's not like they don't know it's being leaked, or maybe it really doesn't matter if it's known.

 

[RobertR1]

It's too late to change anything in the game. The leaks don't protect anything. If Sony needs a re-spin they'll figure it out eventually and just eat the cost of poor yields until they do. That's the life of chip development.

I don't see how a late reveal for the PS5 is a bad thing. The key is the price and quantities available at launch. The performance envelope we know already.

 

[Michellstar]

Remember that Arden it´s not going to serve just the home market, they have to install them in data centers worldwide. I think Ms will ramp up Xcloud with Arden asap

 

[BRiT]

The performance envelope we know already.

We mostly know, or know most of the time.

 

[AzBat]

.The performance envelope we know already.

The top end of the envelope yeah.

Edit: guess Brit already beat me to it.

Tommy McClain

 

[Globalisateur]

Early June is more than fine, five weeks from now.

They can still delay it: nothing has being confirmed by Sony AFAIK

 

[Rangers]

They can still delay it: nothing has being confirmed by Sony AFAIK

Corona seems to be tuckering out just enough this is not much concern, especially in China which is really what matters. Heck even TLOU2 I see got pretty rapidly rescheduled for just 3 weeks later.

A delay would not be used to amp up the power, it would just be the same console 3 months later. There's no benefit here.

Phil Spenser on a podcast IIRC did deny any XSX delay (of course not being absolute) and that was a month ago when the outlook was exponentially murkier. I had thought both consoles denied any delay, but googling just brought me to Gamestop denying any next gen delay. https://screenrant.com/ps5-xbox-series-x-no-delay-gamestop-ceo/

 

[wco81]

It's not just the supply they have to worry about.

Tens of millions of people are out of work.

A console is a highly discretionary purchase.

 

[Globalisateur]

It's not just the supply they have to worry about.

Tens of millions of people are out of work.

A console is a highly discretionary purchase.

It doesn't matter. There will be 10 times more that will still be able to buy even a $499 console. They are going to sell all the stock they have during the first few months. It's not like they will be able to make more consoles at launch than 7 years ago with the Covid-19 having slow down the production lines everywhere.

 

[disco_]

It doesn't mean anything. PS4 production started in june (iirc)

Don't remember if this was around CES or after but AMD said console APUs would be entering low volume production in q2 while full production beginning q3. That still seems to be the case.
Wasn't AquariusZi the same guy who said oberon had so many revisions so late that he wasn't sure it would make it to launch?

Do we happen to know what the numbers were for Navi 10 in that time frame?

Low/limited all the way through september/october IIRC.

https://www.gamersnexus.net/news-pc/3507-hw-news-rx-5700-stock-update-amd-false-advertising-lawsuit

Where’s the RX 5700 XT Stock?
We reached-out to some board partners for the AMD RX 5700 series cards, including the base model and the XT, and asked about when we can expect to see more inventory on retailers. From what a few of the board partners told us, the companies have been shipping inventory once to twice a week to inventory, but initially had low allocation of GPUs and had to catch-up on the manufacturing side. This has meant that stock is mostly disappearing as soon as it goes out, and some regions, like Germany, have especially gouge-y prices that allow retailers to rake-in margin if any units sell. As far as the North American market goes, our understanding is that the big retailers are receiving shipments weekly, but that stock is limited enough that it sells out right away. This is expounded by the long wait for people who’ve wanted RX series cards. Board partners are expecting supply to stabilize over the course of the next 2 weeks to a month, depending on which one you ask.

 

[RDGoodla]

I really think it's fine if PS5 delayed to March 2021 for more stable performance and lower BOM.

So many questions on that translation..

How does a chip start mass production and right afterwards is "nowhere to be seen"? They cancelled mass production?
Sony cancelled the PS5 over fear of the competition, is that his suggestion? Oh well our platform competitor whom we're outselling over 2:1 has a slightly faster chip so let's just pack our shit and leave. Better luck in 8 years I guess.
Or they cancelled Oberon and something else is coming, for an inevitably delayed console at this point?
Or are they just making the SoCs disappear after producing them, in an elaborate trick of magic for the crowd? Or are the SoCs invisible?

I guess PS5 has another revision so the previous SOC is not manufactured further.

AquariusZ is a TSMC insider. He has a good track record for leaks but his conclusions on them are juvenile.

No, he is not a TSMC worker.

He uses Chinese paronomasia to imply his company a lot of times. Not TSMC for sure.

 

[Barrabas]

I really think it's fine if PS5 delayed to March 2021 for more stable performance and lower BOM.

Will future revisions of the forum include a "Dislike" button? Ha ha just kidding

 

[Rangers]

On twitter I guess Jason Schrier liked a couple tweets speculating on a Xbox event next week (yes, we're analyzing twitter likes now)

So I guess the gist is it seems likely there could be an Xbox event next week (giggity).

 

[AzBat]

On twitter I guess Jason Schrier liked a couple tweets speculating on a Xbox event next week (yes, we're analyzing twitter likes now)

So I guess the gist is it seems likely there could be an Xbox event next week (giggity).

Yeah there is also a suggestion that it has something to do with Assassin's Creed: Valhalla too.

Tommy McClain

 

[Deleted member 11852]

It doesn't matter. There will be 10 times more that will still be able to buy even a $499 console. They are going to sell all the stock they have during the first few months. It's not like they will be able to make more consoles at launch than 7 years ago with the Covid-19 having slow down the production lines everywhere.

You say with zero visibility on the demographics. Many people are not financially hurting, or hurting a little. If those are the people planning to buy a console then Microsoft and Sony have nothing to worry about. But fundamentally consoles are budget gaming devices [relative to PCs] and things like GamePass are aimed at those people on a budget and people who do budget day-to-day, week-to-week and month-to-month are those being impacted most by COVID-19.

I see plenty of talk in these forums of people waiting to buy games in sales so there is clearly a segment of people for whom gaming exist in a budgetary bubble. Because unless you have a rock solid guaranteed income for the next few years, or a comfortable next egg, unless your financial future is secure come Holidays 2020, a console would seem like a really poor investment even if you are a hardcore gamer - more so for those people with a family.

 

[fehu]

Wasn't this the week for Xbox's news?

 

[London Geezer]

You say with zero visibility on the demographics. Many people are not financially hurting, or hurting a little. If those are the people planning to buy a console then Microsoft and Sony have nothing to worry about. But fundamentally consoles are budget gaming devices [relative to PCs] and things like GamePass are aimed at those people on a budget and people who do budget day-to-day, week-to-week and month-to-month are those being impacted most by COVID-19.

I see plenty of talk in these forums of people waiting to buy games in sales so there is clearly a segment of people for whom gaming exist in a budgetary bubble. Because unless you have a rock solid guaranteed income for the next few years, or a comfortable next egg, unless your financial future is secure come Holidays 2020, a console would seem like a really poor investment even if you are a hardcore gamer - more so for those people with a family.

True, but thinking of my youth in Italy, purely as an example, you’ll find that many families who aren’t exactly “doing well” - whatever that means - will still be able to treat their kid(s) come Xmas.
There is evidence to this, as the total market size for consoles has grown, and this has happened even with financial crisis after financial crisis, in the last few decades.