GeFX canned?

[WaltC]

I think the point is that demand *is* small for $400 video cards, especially this one, and I think NVIDIA has been planning on doing a limited production of it for a while now.

This is a common mistake made by a lot of people, and I used to make it myself. According to comments at the Mojo day for ATI back in October (if memory is correct), ATI had already shipped in excess of one million 9700P's--the nomentclature used was "9700P", not "R300" so this evidently refers to the finished card.

Later last year, at the conference ATI gave in which the company first officially admitted to the existence of the R350, ATI was asked about the profitiability split between the high end of the market and the low-middle end--the ATI executive was quoted as saying it was about "50-50" in terms of income. I think a lot of people get the volumes confused with profits--the low-middle end requires shipping many more products, but the high-end 3D card market is much more profitable per unit shipped--usually the spread is the high-end products (like the 9700P) are as much as 2-3x as profitable as the lower-end products, and the FireGxL category can be 3-5x as profitable per unit. So while the volumes in the lower end are certainly far greater, the profits aren't necessarily far greater at all.

I think the fact that all the major 3D card companies compete vigorously on the high end indicates they are aware of the financial potential of this market segment. Even smaller companies like Matrox want to play in this market and will spend huge R&D sums to do so.

If anyone really wants me to I'll go dig up the Mojo day quote and link it (as I can only approximately recall where I saw it at the time), but these kinds of numbers shouldn't shock anybody. The total annual PC market worldwide is 100,000,000 machines a year, and of that total the estimated 2D/3D-gaming market is 10% or at least a standing 10 million people world wide at any given time. If ATI and its affiliates sell 2-3 million R300-based products over a six month period I wouldn't be at all surprised.

 

[Crusher]

It was about a year ago that NVIDIA announced it had shipped 100 Million processors. I assume that includes things like the XBox and NForce chips. Figure they're shipping a lot more these days than they did when they started the company, so maybe 40 Million units a year as a rough (conservatively high) estimate? 2% of that would be about 800,000 for high end graphics chips in a year, or 400,000 for each high end product with 6 month cycles. Again, very rough estimates, but the point being it doesn't seem like they weren't ever expecting the FX to sell millions of units. And that was before all the negative reviews and news of R350 hot on its trail. I also think it's reasonable to assume they've been planning on a limited production of it ever since they chose to go with the FXFlow cooler. So no, I don't think reporting that it's been "canned" is an accurate assessment. Being birthed with a short life expectancy would be a little more accurate, IMO.

 

[noko]

100K is not a big number, ATI had over 1 million Radeon 9700 Pro (not non pro's or less) back in November of last year. Now what this does sound like is that Nvidia expects to have a replacement chip out shortly a.k.a NV35 I take it by the time the 100K units are sold. Which to me is very feasible. For one, the .13micron disaster is behind them, the next is DDRII is working and released, the third thing is the base of NV35 is already made being the NV30 chip. So a revised chip and board with hopefully 256bit memory bus with an improved chip is probably close in the makings. Remember Nvidia like ATI continue to work on other projects while the current mainstream project is worked. So the delays to NV30 doesn't necessarily mean delays to NV35. Plus what Jen Hsun said about ATI staying King was not going to happen, makes sense now. Looks like Nvidia is going to surprise ATI after all very shortly. I would bet after ATI's R350 release the real kicker for Nvidia will come out leaving ATI somewhat empty handed until the R400 project is ready.

 

[Heathen]

On

the other hand it may just be a sign of desperation on Nvidia's part. When you're down you'll do everything to pretend you're on top of things, one of the central rules of PR.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Remember Nvidia like ATI continue to work on other projects while the current mainstream project is worked. So the delays to NV30 doesn't necessarily mean delays to NV35.

Its quite likely that the same team that worked on the initial design will also do the refresh.

 

[Doomtrooper]

Whats a CEO supposed to say 'ok boys they won, pack your bags and clean out your desks'.
He's doing what he is supposed to do, stop the bleeding and ensure the shareholders don't start freaking.

IMO the R350 should stack up well to the Nv35, I'm aware of at least one hardware issue on the Nv30 and you don't fix those things over night.


The big battle will be R400 vs Nv40.

 

[WaltC]

....Plus what Jen Hsun said about ATI staying King was not going to happen, makes sense now. Looks like Nvidia is going to surprise ATI after all very shortly. I would bet after ATI's R350 release the real kicker for Nvidia will come out leaving ATI somewhat empty handed until the R400 project is ready.

I don't see this statement by Jen Hsun as "making sense" in any sort of fashion except one of a grudging sour grapes kind of thing--and of course he would say something like this--surely he's not going to say "We hope to be able to catch them this year." At least he was smart enough not to put a time table on it.

I seriously doubt nVidia has any sort of "surprise" awaiting the R3500/R400, else they surely would have have used it by now. In fact, I think the reverse is true, that ATI surprised nVidia so much that the company is only now coming to grips with what's happened. The signs seem fairly obvious to me.

I learned this a long time ago with 3dfx--don't listen to what a company says it will do in the future--look at the products a company is shipping in the present. That will tell you more about the likely actual future of their products than anything at all that they might say. In the end 3dfx was all talk and no show. Pardon me if I don't accept any rhetoric coming out of nVidia in lieu of actual products. Rhetoric does not impress--products like the R300 impress.

EDIT: I'd like to add here that the state of things in this situation should surprise nobody, really. Any time a chip company introduces a brand new architecture, you can take their past performance based on the older architecture and throw it out the window. The new architecture may be excellent--it may be a dog. When you move to a new architecture you really are starting over in more ways than one, and all the counters reset to zero and the game is brand new. So far, there's absolutely no question that ATI's new architecture is way ahead of nVidia's. It could have as easily been the reverse. But now we've got two 3D chip companies that have, in essence, both "started over" in their hardware games. It's a brand-new ball game, now.

 

[noko]

Its quite likely that the same team that worked on the initial design will also do the refresh.

I agree, isn't most chips in a series developed in parrallel. Meaning that NV35 is already done now and it is a matter of implementation or production. Basically the features that was left out of the NV30 will now be in the NV35. Does anyone know if the NV35 chip has tapped out already? I know, I know we are dealing with Nvidia here.

Still the canning of the NV30 series does make sense, it is blantantly not competitive against the competition. Which will only hurt the manufacturers sticking with Nvidia in the long run which would hurt Nvidia as well. A limited run right into the refresh part does seem to me the logical and most pratical solution. The 6 month delay has virtually made the NV30 worthless to produce specially against a refresh ATI part R350 which will undoubtly be cheaper to build and higher performing.

 

[Luminescent]

Doomtrooper, can you reiterate what that issue is? Does it deal with the pixel pipeline?

 

[Doomtrooper]

The information is on Nvnews...pretty obvious to spot.

 

[Hellbinder]

*cough* where did all the fog go*cough*

 

[Dave Baumann]

*cough*Where did truform go?*cough*

 

[Doomtrooper]

*cough*Where did my beer go?*cough*

 

[g__day]

I still hold that a new technology or "cinematic rendering" will take 2-3 generations to really get going. To me GeForce FX is just a first step into an interesting journey that has not been roadmapped well.

Its a birthing process - messy and painful. I can easily wait 12-18 months now using my 9700 PRO until everyone gets it right.

If graphics cards were like a sea voyage, say from Sydney to the Greek Islands then GeForce 3 was Phukett - clean, fun, appealling attractive, GF4 MX was Indonesia - you just don't want to go there, GF4 Ti was Hong Kong - fun and exciting, R300 was Maritus - mind boggling exotic, beautiful, value and appealing and GeFX is Bombay - how the hell did I get turned around and end up in this overheated, noisy confused place that is meant to have lots going on but I can't find it?

Wake me when we get to St Tropez...

 

[epicstruggle]

*cough*wondering why people are coughing*cough*

 

[martrox]

How about those 100,000 customers that get stuck with this thing..... If this is true? Think they will be pissed?

 

[Doomtrooper]

Some kind of B3D virus

 

[Qroach]

I can also see this happening. NV30 has arrived (or will arrive way too late.) It also has problems, and they certainly aren't forced to release a chip with problems and stick with it.

I mentioned this on the console board (talking about xbox 2) to the people that were acting like all of nvidia's chips are goign to be like this form now on. Just becuase they had problems with this chip, and it was seriously delayed, doesn't mean the other chips they had in development will also have the same problems.

Didn't nvidia have 3 teams working on different chips long before, aquiring 3dfx/gigipixel employees? Any idea how many teams they have now?

 

[RussSchultz]

How about those 100,000 customers that get stuck with this thing..... If this is true? Think they will be pissed?

Why would they care, as long as its supported?

 

[martrox]

How about those 100,000 customers that get stuck with this thing..... If this is true? Think they will be pissed?

Why would they care, as long as its supported?

Come on, Russ...... IF here is a NV35 out within the next 3 months, thats faster quieter and costs the same......you telling me you wouldn't be pissed?