Just because there would not be consoles competing with each other, or the games would release on all consoles, that does not mean that the games would look like crap. Developers and publishers still would want their games to sell as best as possible and therefore try to make them as good as possible, there might not be competition between console manufacturers but there is certainly between developers/publishers...
Famitsu: XBOX 360 global domination through 2007
- Thread starter MasterDisaster
- Start date
Just because there would not be consoles competing with each other, or the games would release on all consoles, that does not mean that the games would look like crap. Developers and publishers still would want their games to sell as best as possible and therefore try to make them as good as possible, there might not be competition between console manufacturers but there is certainly between developers/publishers...
Am I the only one who noticed that apparently the Famitsu guy thinks the 360 will sell less units next year than they will this one? In fact, if MS hits their goal of 10 million units by the end of this year then he apparently believes that next years sales will only be about 75% of this years sales.
Somehow I seriously doubt that 360 sales will be lower next year, especially considering MS should be doing their first price drop sometime around May, and the 360 was in limited supply the first 3 months of this year.
Somehow I seriously doubt that 360 sales will be lower next year, especially considering MS should be doing their first price drop sometime around May, and the 360 was in limited supply the first 3 months of this year.
Indeed.
Not to mention the titles forth coming in 2007. Yes there will be competition with Wii and ps3, but I don't think anyone was confusing a 360 for a ps3 last year so anyone who was going to get a ps3/wii has waited and the fence sitters will then chose which console to get. By this time next year that decision should be a pretty tough choice software-wise and price-wise I imagine MS will be in a pretty good position which should bolster sales past their performance this year.
I predict sales of 12-14million in 2007 for a total of 22-24million.
I didn't say they would look like crap - I did say though that a dedicated piece of code designed to run best on a single piece of hardware will be whole lot more optimized than another piece of code designed to "run best" on multiple and different hardware. And it's not just about looks either - would you expect a multi-platform game between Wii and the Xbox360 to be really enhancing gameplay through optimizing the gameplay for Wii's unique Wii remote? Not really - probably, at best, you can expect a game that can be played with more controllers but where gameplay isn't changed in the slightest to be optimized for any particular version of the game.
Yes, publishers would still be in direct competition, but if all the developers are doing multi-platform games, you can expect more or less identical results since all of them target the lowest common denominator. At least with exclusives, you get to look and say "woah, that's what can be done on the hardware when it's optimized which would not be possible on hardware x or y".
May I ask why?
Just looking it things as they are now, they already shipped over 5 million by last June, they've sold another 700,000+ in the US alone since, they are averaging 30% higher sales than the Xbox in the same time period which would indicate another 2-2.2 million units sold in the US alone betweem now and the end of the year.
Based off that they should be somewhere around 7.9 million, not including sales outside the US since June.
The 360 has been launched in 31 countries world-wide, including launching in India last month. It will have no competition from the PS3 in Europe, and no competition from anyone outside of Japan and the US (And obviously the Wii in Europe). Certainly they should be able to manage a mere 2.1 million units sold outside the US in 6 months and hit their 10 million goal.
From the numbers I've seen, 360 is at about 3 million as of october in the US. Around 1 million in EU and ~120k or so in JP also, unless I'm mistaken. Another 1.5-2.5mil in the US around holiday (depending on who you ask), even doubling EU and JP's total sales and you still won't hit the 10 million. Regardless, wasn't their goal 10million 'shipped' anyways? They always talk shipped numbers, so I don't imagine one of their arbitrary targets would be actual sales, while every previous one they had was talking shipped numbers.
360's WW sales should be posted somewhere in the september NPD thread on GAF (I'd find them, but GAF is blocked here).
This is the August Chart at vgacharts.com:
Hardware: Console Month Total
DS 314,000 6,596,500
PS2 309,000 40,448,500
X360 226,500 2,678,000
GBA 185,000 37,988,500
PSP 165,000 5,674,500
GC 45,000 12,152,000
XB 10,000 15,870,500
PS 2,000 36,756,500
Total 1,256,500
The 360 sells almost 2/3rds of its consoles in the U.S. So let's be kind and say that the 360 needs to reach 6.5 million in the U.S. (then the E.U. would have to pick up and reach 3 million, and Japan reach 500.000).
That means they'll need almost 4 million sales in the U.S. over the next four months. I personally think that we might see sales go up to something like 300, 500, 800, and 1.2 million over September, October, November, and December respectively. Those would be, imho, very healthy numbers for the U.S., with the competing with the DS, PSP, Wii and PS3 for holiday prize money.
Even so, that would leave them at 9.2 million. Which isn't bad anyway, but what will happen then during 2007 is going to be very, very hard to predict.
Hardware: Console Month Total
DS 314,000 6,596,500
PS2 309,000 40,448,500
X360 226,500 2,678,000
GBA 185,000 37,988,500
PSP 165,000 5,674,500
GC 45,000 12,152,000
XB 10,000 15,870,500
PS 2,000 36,756,500
Total 1,256,500
The 360 sells almost 2/3rds of its consoles in the U.S. So let's be kind and say that the 360 needs to reach 6.5 million in the U.S. (then the E.U. would have to pick up and reach 3 million, and Japan reach 500.000).
That means they'll need almost 4 million sales in the U.S. over the next four months. I personally think that we might see sales go up to something like 300, 500, 800, and 1.2 million over September, October, November, and December respectively. Those would be, imho, very healthy numbers for the U.S., with the competing with the DS, PSP, Wii and PS3 for holiday prize money.
Even so, that would leave them at 9.2 million. Which isn't bad anyway, but what will happen then during 2007 is going to be very, very hard to predict.
MS always talks shipped numbers (As does Sony and Nintendo), and those were over 5 million as of June 30th.
NPD does not track global sales, nor are their figures accurate. Especially if you are talking about shipped rather than retail sales. We should be able to safely assume they will ship at least 3 million systems between now and the end of the year in just the US as they will almost certainly sell over 2 million at retail and they will need to have stock on store shelves after the holidays are over.
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scooby_dooby
Legend
I still think MS is missing a huge opportunity by not dropping their prices.
Completely underestimating the power of the Sony brand name IMO. The next 6 months is their one chance to build up as much as a lead as possible, I think they're being penny wise and pound foolish here.
Completely underestimating the power of the Sony brand name IMO. The next 6 months is their one chance to build up as much as a lead as possible, I think they're being penny wise and pound foolish here.
March 2007, when PS3 hits Europe and production/fulfillment of PS3 is no longer constrained is perfect IMO. No need to combat a foe who is not effectively on the battlefield yet, as Sony will not be until early 2007 as limited production will mean that every system made will be snatched up by hardcore buyers anyway.
at $329- $349 in March (maybe with a bundle) the Premium will look amazingly bargain-like compared to $499/$599.
and $229-$249 for the core?
It is also my prediction. (bookmark it)
Now's not the time. Come next spring when sales slow is a good time to spark sales with a price drop. For this holiday a bundle should do the trick to bump sales but I think even without it they'll sell quite a bit with Gears and a few other promising titles this Christmas providing a tempting platform for gamers.
Biggest thing MS needs to do right now is raise consumer awareness and let Gears be the sperhead of that campaign.
edit - tap-in bet me to it
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Nah, I think MS would be better off capitalizing on the higher price as long as they can.
Sure everyone focuses on outselling Sony, but I bet earning a profit is at least, if not more important to MS at this point. The longer they can hold on to the current price point the better it is to their bottom line.
Besides, no reason to change the price until we see what the market actually does. Who knows, after the holidays and after the PS3 supply issues are all worked out it may still be a close race in the US at least. If it is, it would be much better to maximize profits while they can, and then drop the price right before next holiday season to put Sony in a bind.
The really amazing thing is that the PS2 still leads and shows no sign of letting up, while GC and XB have slumped. Maybe specifying and pricing the PS3 high wasn't a bad idea if the PS2 is going to continue to sell well even after the PS3 is on the market, since the two won't compete with each other like XBox 360 and XBox seem to be doing.
Well the PS2 certainly ain't dead yet.
Lots of promising titles still coming to it so I could see PS2 still selling good numbers for the next year. Besides it has massive game library, with a price point pretty much every household can afford. I wouldn't be surprised if PS2 outsold Xbox360, PS3(Most definately due to limited supply) and Wii this christmas. Like you said, Sony has nothing to be afraid of if the price point fails because of PS2 is backing them up. I hope Sony drops the price of PS3 07 summer though, because in fall I'm planning to get my console and hopefully MGS4 with it.
It's called a summary. I didn't put those words in quotes, so they're quite obviously not being put into your mouth. The kind of technology you were describing (no BD, no RSX/Xenos, no Cell, etc.) I thought could be adequately summarized as 4-5 year old technology. Now, if you have a better summary, please inform me.I never spoke of a technological drop of 4-5 years - you're just putting words into my mouth now.
I don't know where you're going with this, but the original claim (varying hardware means developers won't take advantage of more powerful hardware) is obviously invalid. No one has to deal more with varying hardware more than PC developers, and yet we have PC games that look stunning and take advantage of new technology.
Your point is entirely without support. You speak of efficiency as a god-figure that can perform magical works. It can't. Yes, exclusives tend to be more optimized. So? You can't just throw "optimization" around and expect everyone to bow down. If you really want to have support, you'll show that the efficiency of exclusives is far and away superior to multiplatform titles.
And then you'll have to explain why SC: DA, Bioshock, Alan Wake, Crysis, The Darkness, HL2 Ep. 2, R6: Vegas and UT2k7 look as good as single console games.
Fine, but that has nothing to do with the topic.
Add to that the 360 is sold in close to 40 countries right now. There's lots of places where untis shipped can't be tracked by anyone other than MS. The 360 is already on sale in more countries then the original Xbox was after being on the market for 5 years...
You are forgetting Canada(usually 10% of what a console sells in the U.S) that would add about 500k at the end of 2006 and Australia that the xbox360 has sold around 100k since launch last March and can go up to 250k until the end of 2006.So we will have an extra 750-800.000 units to add to U.S+Japan+Europe sales.
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