Eidos: Bye bye GC, you won't be missed

[Vince]

I don't know if you noticed or not, but Tales of Symphonia completely on its own propelled GC hardware sales beyond PS2's for a week in Japan.

Tag, this is a perfect example, a title that should have had significant pull and caused a true inflection point in sales. Instead it caused a one week increase and then it normalized and returned to it's trend of negative growth.

How this is an example that's outside of the bounds of my comments I don't see. The fundimental point, as Z stated, is that Nintendo recieved no solid traction from it's big name, 1st party, releases this year. This is clearly a loss of initiative by very definition.

And then factor in the lack and contraction of the few 3rd parties to cushion the deficit - and you don't have a pretty picture looking forward.

That's before the price cut, even.

This is ridiculous. I can null it in two ways, you pick:

- The price-cut is like cup of coffee when you haven't slept in 64 hours. It will provide an artificial boost, but it won't eliminate the preexisting trend. Nintendo's Hard-sales are bad enough that halting production was economically more viable, even with the intrinsic losses from their fixed cost infrastructure, than producing even a reduced footprint of hardware that wouldn't sell. This means that sales have dropped to that large of an extent - A price-cut isn't the fundimental inflection point Nintendo needs to survive. It's effects will diminish quickly in todays marketplace.

- A price-cut! Sweet! What price is XBox and PS2 selling at in these regions? Explain again how bad it is that to even reach a somewhat static plane of sales, Nintendo needs to undercut it's competitors [eg. XBox] by almost 60%. Hell, I wouldn't even use this to support my case if I were you - it's that damn bad.

I don't quite see this 'undeniable trend' you seem to feel is so obvious.

Well, appearently Nintendo sees it; ergo the manufacturing halt. Can buy you some glasses that help equalize that bias meter of yours...

 

[Vince]

Completely disagree. Here's why.

Ok, sweet.

The complete failure of their traditionally strong in-house franchises to energize sales and expand their base?

There's a press release about increased sales?

Ok, lets look at this "Increased sales."

...So far in 2003, Nintendo GameCube is the only home console showing an increase in unit sales compared to 2002," says George Harrison, senior vice president, marketing and corporate communications, Nintendo of America..."

So, if I sold only 5 widgets last year, and 90 this year - while my competitors sold 530,000 last year and 510,000 this year. Can I too send out a Press Release saying I was raping the industry with a massive 18X increase in sales Year-over-Year, while my competitors were all down?

I think not.

Especially when your competitors, like SCE, had amazing last year in which their sales were like 4-5 times the competitors individually or some insane amount.

As for what I was origionally saying, - Are you attempting to skirt the issue? So, in your opinion, did Nintendo's software launches have the effect on console sales that you expected? Compared to previous generations, were they as pervasive as before? Did they cause the same userbase expansion as we've seen in the past?

The fact that Nintendo halted production on hardware as SCEI is raising production and Microsoft/nVidia have seen increased production?

There's a press release about being the only console with increased sales?

Dude, I know I've heard this before somewhere.
First, I'd like to see this PR. And even then, tt's still forgetting the parts of the pictures like:

• Reduced first-party sSales on a normalized basis with past titles from the franchises.
• Drindeling 3rd party support.
• Underpreforming hSales that lead to a manufacturing halt.

How is this good? These points are points that are foward looking and preach to such non-tangible entities like initiative and IMHO, now is like the time when Nintendo needs to look at the sky infront of them and see the hurricane is bearing down at them.

Read above, something about sales. I see that as gaining momentum.

Are you actually trying to say N is lying about those unit sales?

I did read above. Three times now. They don't have to lie. As Benjamin Disraeli once said, "There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics."

And that's numbers so far. Count in a complete set of must-have exclusives coming, like Viewtiful Joe, RS3, MKD... on a $99 system. With Metroid Prime being $29.99. Somebody stop them, 'couse I'm getting another one 8)

Yawn! Didn't we hear this kind of talk last year? And the year before that? Nintendo fans differ from the rest by their inability see what's really going on. Hell, you'd think the realization that they need to revert to "Metroid Prime being $29.99" as a selling point would wake them up.

How many people do you hear talking about how "GTA or HALO moving to $30" will cause such an uproar? None, because they've moved on and are worshipping the "Next Big Thing" (TM)... try to put it in perspective.

Besides, I wouldn't be surprised if NA eYeToy outsold every last game you wrote about. What Nintendo has been reduced to... Them slow moving giants of the past, huh?

 

[Qroach]

What you and swedbear have said are exactly what I've been telling people for months. buyers for retail chains in north america have a similar picture on teh software situation...

 

[zurich]

While year over year sale comparisons are nice and all, I think its important to look at generation over generation figures as well. This is what 1) makes Sony look even greater, 2) makes Nintendo look awful, 3) puts MS in the fortunate position of having immunity, due to not having a prior console.

Believe me, as much as I like my Halo, if Halo 3 on XB2 sells 500k, I'd be the first one to get worried.

 

[Vince]

What you and swedbear have said are exactly what I've been telling people for months. buyers for retail chains in north ameirca have a similar picture...

The Force is strong in this one. I know, much of my thinking started from reading your comments.

Anyways, I'm going to run like a little girl before the hardcore Nintendo contingent read this and associate my comemnts with you.

 

[Qroach]

Anyways, I'm going to run like a little girl before the hardcore Nintendo contingent read this and associate my comemnts with you.

Lol...

Well all I can say is that winning in hardware sales is only part of the equation. If you can't win in software sales, then publishers and developers will get luke warm on the system. It happens very quickly and has happenedjust as fast in the past.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Anyways, I'm going to run like a little girl before the hardcore Nintendo contingent read this and associate my comemnts with you.

Or worse: Me.

The very fact that Vince and I agree on this topic should be proof enough that Nintendo is screwed.

 

[Kolgar]

Roger that, Vince. You're right on about the Gamecube "sales surge."

A temporary condition, not a lasting trend.

Kolgar

 

[cthellis42]

Yes, but, see... We've been hearing the same thing for the past 6-12 months, and so far the numbers haven't been showing a huge downward trend for a company making so many huge mistakes that it's utterly obvious and they are in a like a many trying to cross the Atlantic in a colander filled with bricks.

I figure we have about another year of things "as is" before everything goes loopy again, with some minimal erosion or perhaps even some climbing for Nintendo (mainly if they play their GBA/GC link cards right). By this time next year PSP will be right around the corner, and people will already have gotten a look at Playstation 3. And a LOT depends on how those progress and perform. If a firm date is announced for the PS3 launch by this time, we're likely to see a falloff from every player (including the PS2) while people wait in anticipation. Depending on what kind of showing it has and whether there are counterbalances (X2 or N5 showing up at E3. ... ...did I just say that sentence?) will likely have big repurcussions in the funny little game we've got going right now.

NEXT generation's launch I think has much more bearing than the plays we have left right now. There's likely to be not too much left before everything gets mottled up with looking at the next gen anyway--Xbox and GameCube get kind of a short run. Depending on when each of the consoles arrive and what they bring to the table, what support they have at launch, what they show off of the future, and how they choose to play the game THEN...? Much more relevant than right now. Right now we have a waiting game and a guessing game--the winner is already known and said winner has both the most visible and most intriguing machine, is visible on the horizon, carrying the most developer support, and may be beating the others out of the gate as well.

The funny thing is this gen is almost OVER, when it hardly seems like it's begun. Even if the GC was just a stopgap measure, it's been a much more appealing machine than the N64, has many great games (and to come), and has marched spritely alongside Microsoft's bruiser while not being a money sink, and has retained their visability. (Which is still worth a lot of sales, even if it costs them in "image points.") How they respond to the PSP and what form N5 takes is much more crucial, and I don't see them as having burned down so many bridges that can't be rebuilt quickly with proper handling in the future.

If they continue down the same path they have been of late, I can certainly see them sinking into inconsequentiality, but EVERYTHING depends on those next steps--and if their competitors walk steadily or stumble during theirs.

 

[notAFanB]

think I'll fuel the debate with this newsbite(s):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3138948.stm

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a1xe1_OtjGFA&refer=japan

not sure what to make of this any thoughts?

 

[Qroach]

look interesting, but I wonder what this new console is all about... China is a huge market if you could hold off the pirates. Then again, I'd say that nothing is copy proof.

 

[notAFanB]

I think they are refferring to the same (pending?) news release. still mass marketing an entertainment console in china should be interesting and I'm assuming that pricing here would be absolutly crucial.

 

[GHost]

AFAIK Nintendo have the China government support. That's pretty sure to eliminate most of the piracy in such a non-democratic country.

 

[notAFanB]

That's pretty sure to eliminate most of the piracy in such a non-democratic country.

.... your joking right?????

 

[zurich]

Flash cards downloading games off the net in stores? Uh, sounds like an excelent way to promote piracy!

If anything, the GC would have a better chance there, due to its custom discs and such.

 

[GHost]

No, I'm not joking. Having the government behind you means MUCH in China IMO. I'm not talking about not having piracy there (of course!), they just don't care about PC games, audio CDs etc. If they did, they'd shoot people (NO I'm not kidding).

The real challenge seems to be competing against the PC game pirates, selling you a bunch of games for under a $1...

 

[wazoo]

If a firm date is announced for the PS3 launch by this time, we're likely to see a falloff from every player (including the PS2) while people wait in anticipation.

No way. The ps1 had its strongest years after the ps2 unveiling (not launch). Announcing the ps3 will only push the ps2 even more. Frightening they already sold >50M and they are not even at 99$.

 

[cybamerc]

zurich:

>It sounded to me just what it said; year over year for August, Xbox was
> the only console that saw an increase in sales.

He's talking about August specifically although he's being deliberately vague. Standard M$ marketing MO.

> (this goes against wat cybamerc was saying earlier that only GC was
> up year over year)

I said Game Boy. George Harrison seems to think GC sales have increased as well. I don't have the numbers by me so I can't verify his info but I suspect that they're just being creative.



Johnny Awesome:

> The Cube has lost all momentum. They're going to get murdered this
> holiday.

Such insight. Such profound wisdom. Such linguistic skills. What would we do without you? Hey, why don't we try to find out?

Could someone please remove Johhny Awesome from this board?



Vince:

> Or their complete lack of 3rd party support to stabilize this deficit?

Troll.

 

[Qroach]

Could someone please remove Johhny Awesome from this board?

how about they remove you instead? What are you calling vince a troll for?

 

[Magnum PI]

even better remove both of them.