Acert93,
That wasn't quite the point I was trying to make. I know there
are reasons (just as there are reasons to see this as a too much of a cost/risk factor) for a transition - what I am questioning is, what are the chances of Xenon launching early AND getting the support
necessary to make the early launch a successful attempt in gaining a
valuable headstart before the other consoles launch.
Picture the following scenario:
Xenon is to launch at the end of this year (christmas holidays). By then, the PS2 userbase will be close to a 100 million userbase - a very lucrative and attractive market, no doubt about it. Developers will be hard put not to support it with their big profile titles simply because such a market ensures easy sales - just as supporting the dominant console is as we see with the current situation (most dominant console == most support).
If Xenon launches late this year, I am assuming that development will have to start very soon. Game development however isn't a cheap undertaking.... especially for next generation software, an increase in art-creation can be expected, new libraries and so fort - basically, many things of which are already existant and widely used on current generation hardware. In other words - while the PS2 userbase is as attractive as it can get with the large userbase, development costs can be expected to be much lower than the undertaking in developing content for a next generation platform launching early.
Given that publishers have
n resources to allocate for a certain time period to new software, I am question how much of
n is going to be allocated towards an early Xenon platform, especially when there is plenty of money to be made on existant hardware.
Publishers
know where they can maximize profits, they also know that the PS2 is the dominant console this time around and they know that a PS3 should be out within a year after Xenon. Question is, how likely are they to jump to next generation now with big titles or will they just take a "wait and see" approach in regards to Xenon until next generation really gets rolling? This really isn't much different than the problem Dreamcast faced when it launched... where were all the big profile Publishers when Dreamcast needed it most to make an impact? Still on the PSone developing software and later continuing their support on PS2 with software at launch or little after. There's a big advantage in being the dominant player in the industry... All I am saying is, that a Xenon launch with mediocre software is something that certainly won't help them make a significant impact nor will it give them a headstart.
Acert93 said:
But there are reasons to transition. 1st is XNA. This means developers making games on the PC can port their new software to the console. So they get the advantage of creating software with a higher lowest common denominator. So developing a Xenon title means exposure on two platforms.
While this is certainly a plus for a majority of the Xbox userbase and PC-gamers that are looking for a great opportunity to shift to consoles and see similar orientated games - it's something that many
console-developers couldn't give a damn about. PC and console games are really two different things, aimed at a different crowd going for a different experience all together. Console games rarely sell well on PC and vice-versa - and there are many examples that show this as well. PC orientated software also won't help Microsoft launch a
console successfully and gain a significant headstart over the dominant player either. Really, a nice plus for certain developers, but not really those developers that are supporting the PS2 userbase at the moment and will continue to do so at its most lucrative point. I doubt those developers will take on big risks, for the sake of XNA and launching on two platforms that would cost them more effort with higher costs but less sales and profits than could be achieved by milking the userbase of current gen hardware (or simply hold out until PS3 launches that would be a safer bett all together).
Acert93 said:
The next benefit is the oppurtinity to make a new name for yourself. It can be hard to break into a saturated market. Better to be a big fish in a small pond than a small fish in a big pond.
Another benefit is exposure. Obviously next gen games will look better (and hopefully play better). If you have a great looking game that plays well you are competing against only a couple dozen games and few, if any, games in the same genre.
Another perk is if you can get a solid title out the doors soon after the launch of a new platform it setups up a sequal and opens the door for more exposure for future projects.
There's really nothing I disagree with here, just that this is more something of interest for smaller developers that are yet to make an impact and need all the attention they can get - something they're certainly bound to when launching in an overly occupied market (ie: PS2's) where marketing or a big name is needed to gain market attention. The question I'm asking however is, how will games by small developers impact Xenon's launch?
Acert93 said:
And finally is getting a jump start on the new technology. The companies who wait a year or two to transition will be behind. Having created a game from start to finish on a platform allows you to discover a lot of nuances in the hardware.
Certainly a plus... but how big of a plus is it when the console they're jumping to first will merely be of success no better than the current Xbox by the end of its lifespan? How much of a technological dis-/advantage did the early Dreamcast supporters enjoy 1 year into the console's life? Certainly not much, considering Dreamcast production came to an halt and PS2's userbase started growing at a phenomenal rate. The thing is, there's a risk associated when supporting a new console. Again, I'm not saying there will be no support on the new system - I am really just questioning how much support there will be allocated at launch to make the early transition Microsoft has planned worthwhile when being in direct competition that will launch better and with potentially better hardware.
I'd find it worrying if the best big 3rd parties would have to offer on my [Xenon] launch are a couple of games that are actually to be released on last generation hardware as well.... I doubt a product that launches on both current and next gen effectively makes use of the performance of the next generation hardware effectively. It also says a lot about confidence into the new product as well... certainly a "wait and see" approach just as I'm suspecting *might* be a flaw in Microsofts early console transition.
Next generation doesn't really start when the first "next gen system" launches.... it starts when the demand shifts onto the newer product. I really don't see this happening in the big numbers until PS3 launches. If this happens and PS3 launches later with more powerful hardware and Xenon failed to make a big impact until then, things just could get a bit ugly for them being the underdog in all areas.
Just some random thoughts to clarify what my point was further up.
