Do you think there will be a mid gen refresh console from Sony and Microsoft?

IAnd yet, they sold 80 million of the X360, and it was an unreliable machine. If the machine was stable from the beginning and there was no negative feedback, even 100 + million would have been sold.

But you're forgetting a decent chunk of that 80 million sold were owners buying replacement consoles and not new users joining the platform.

The failure rates were insane from what I remember of the Xbox documentary Microsoft released a few year(s?) back now.
 
Yeah. I've been disappointed how badly has this console generation aged. Or maybe it's just poor artefact ridden upscaling that makes IQ suffer and eyes bleed. 1080p -> 4k with DLSS would be OK.

MS needs to talk with Nvidia/Intel/Qualcomm when it comes to next gen systems if they want to make clearly better system than what PS5 Pro likely will be. They can't really gain real advantage over Sony tech wise, if both companies are using the same gen AMD tech, produced with the same the process to match a similar price point.

Qualcomm ARM cores + Nvidia GPU or Intel CPU + Celestial/Druid based GPU might make more sense. ML based upscaling and strong RT (possibly even enable path tracing in consoles) would be nice, and I believe people will be ready in 2026 for a true next gen. I know I will.
It may seem attractive at first to differentiate from your competitor in terms of hardware architecture but in reality it is both a blessing and a curse. What exactly constitutes a "better system" is entirely dependent on what the lead platform is for developers. If your platform ends up being the lead then the choice in differentiating will bear fruit but if your rival has the lead platform then your customers will suffer a worse experience for it or developers might even neglect to release software on your system altogether ...
 
But you're forgetting a decent chunk of that 80 million sold were owners buying replacement consoles and not new users joining the platform.

The failure rates were insane from what I remember of the Xbox documentary Microsoft released a few year(s?) back now.
PS3 didn't fare much better. And MS lost a lot of money replacing XB360s, so I don't think a large portion, no larger than Sony's went to replacements.
 
PS3 didn't fare much better. And MS lost a lot of money replacing XB360s, so I don't think a large portion, no larger than Sony's went to replacements.

My post wasn't about PS3, so while I agree it had issues too I'm not sure what bringing PS3 up adds?

It wasn't a 360 Vs PS3 type post and I wanted to avoid getting in to those type of comparisons as we know how they can end up.

The money Microsoft lost is also moot as it has no influence on sales numbers from customers replacing faulty consoles.
 
My post wasn't about PS3, so while I agree it had issues too I'm not sure what bringing PS3 up adds?

It wasn't a 360 Vs PS3 type post and I wanted to avoid getting in to those type of comparisons as we know how they can end up.
Well it's kinda inevitable when you raise that XB360 didn't sell 80 million but don't add, by the same logic, neither did PS3. ;) But also your argument ignores MS's free replacements. The money MS lost isn't moot because if people were buying replacement consoles, MS wouldn't have lost so much handing out free replacements! It's there as evidence that the sales numbers are pretty reasonable and so I disagree that "a decent chunk of that 80 million sold were owners buying replacement consoles".
 
But you're forgetting a decent chunk of that 80 million sold were owners buying replacement consoles and not new users joining the platform.

The failure rates were insane from what I remember of the Xbox documentary Microsoft released a few year(s?) back now.

Most replacement X360's were through the MS Xbox replacement program. So, the vast majority of replaced X360's weren't counted as sales.

Regards,
SB
 
Well it's kinda inevitable when you raise that XB360 didn't sell 80 million but don't add, by the same logic, neither did PS3.
PS3 wasn't even in my the conversation so again, has no relevance to my comment.
But also your argument ignores MS's free replacements.
I never said they didn't offer free replacements, but they didn't replace every single Xbox and not everyone knew about the replacement program.
The money MS lost isn't moot because if people were buying replacement consoles,
Yes it is because it doesn't affect how many were sold, they 'sold' 80 million.
MS wouldn't have lost so much handing out free replacements! It's there as evidence that the sales numbers are pretty reasonable and so I disagree that "a decent chunk of that 80 million sold were owners buying replacement consoles".

While there's never been confirmed by Microsoft it's estimated to by just over 50% of all 360's became faulty (I don't agree with the reports of (68%)

Now how much of that 50% were replaced/covered by Microsoft? Half? That would leave 20 million of the 80 that could have been purchased to replace faulty units.

That is a decent chunk.
 
I see that the topic is more and more on the agenda, it concerns many people. Even now, I can only say that there was an original Xbox for just over 20 million compared to a PS2 for 120 million. No one would have believed that this could be reversed, everyone was convinced that those who bought a PS until then would not buy an Xbox. And yet, they sold 80 million of the X360, and it was an unreliable machine. If the machine was stable from the beginning and there was no negative feedback, even 100 + million would have been sold.

Nothing is set in stone, with proper marketing and lots of exclusive games you can blow up the console market at any time, but that marketing has to be very good!
The difference is that now, with more of most people's library being digital, changing machines means more. If you are a mostly physical media gamer, and have a Playstation and have been paying for PS+ for a couple of years, you would have received 2-3 free games a month. 100 games is a low estimate here. As soon as you stop paying for PS+, those games are locked and you can't play them. Without some strong motivation, most people wouldn't just abandon that library to play games on Xbox. The reverse is true on Xbox with Gamepass. If you like the library that's on there, and you switch to Playstation, you no longer have access to that library. This is all in addition to any of the digital games you already own. Backwards compatibility is the expected norm going forward. Meaning that getting people to change consoles is going to get harder and harder.
 
PS3 wasn't even in my the conversation so again, has no relevance to my comment.
What exactly was the relevance of the comment in the first place then? Why do you want to take MS's sales in isolation and say an indeterminate but sizeable amount don't count as users, yet not want to compare MS to Sony to determine how well they were competing with their rival? :-?
 
What exactly was the relevance of the comment in the first place then?
To point out that 360 sales could range from slightly skewed to really skewed so quoting pure sales numbers for 360 is never going to be possible.
Why do you want to take MS's sales in isolation and say an indeterminate but sizeable amount don't count as users, yet not want to compare MS to Sony to determine how well they were competing with their rival? :-?

Because you can't compare the two, maybe provide some estimated repair numbers for PS3's issues so a comparison can be made.

Simply stating "PS3 didn't fare much better" with no figures to back it up doesn't really enable a comparison.

I've never seen a source that equates PS3's issues to being close to 360's but I'm happy to see one if you have it.
 
I've never seen a source that equates PS3's issues to being close to 360's but I'm happy to see one if you have it.
I don't have numbers, but failure rates on CECHA01 models are notoriously high. For context, I work at a retro video game store that does repairs. We won't sell a backwards compatible PS3 without testing it for 4 or more hours of continuous play. Launch era PS3's shouldn't be rare because they sold really well at launch, but working ones are. If I was guessing, about half of the ones I see now either don't turn on or yellow light, and about half of the ones that do turn on don't read games. Do a quick search on Ebay and see how many CECHA01 PS3's are available as "untested" or for parts. Protip - I bet the untested ones were tested.
 

Brad and Jez already staring to "explain". It doesn't matter but it does, Microsoft doesn't want to play that game but it does. dancing about the topic like 5pro is about energy efficiency, psst psst wait for real thing. Soon there wiil again same bunch of fifteen toxic psych shills joining and roaming the internet and spreading fud all the way to ps6 only to again turn out as usual cuz digital library.
 
Given the ecosystem inertia, it's tricky for MS, but having been around to analyze the industry for over 25 years my instinct is telling me that it's still all about the games.

I'm having a blast on my XSX, and I really do believe that MS releases six 8.5s for every three 9s that Sony gets out the door, but the fact is that when you're in 3rd place you have to do twice as well to overcome market perception and branding weaknesses.

If Halo Infinite, Starfield & Forza had all been 9s, instead of 8.5s, and must have titles then they might have attracted more attention from PS gamers.

MS has to use those 40 studios to make PS gamers jealous enough to say: "I need an Xbox/PC too."

They need Hellblade, Fable, Doom, Avowed, Gears, etc... [insert gazillion IPs] to be 9/10 must have games. They need to be relentlessly releasing AAA game after AAA game so that Sony fans are cursing the heavens because they are forced to buy an Xbox/PC to play them. 40 studios/5 year dev cycles = 8 AAA games per year, give or take, minus multiplatform CoD and some longer dev cycle games like Elder Scrolls and let's call it 6 AAA games a year.

That and a $400 X and $200 S are what's needed to turn things around in NA & UK. Then they can start promoting like crazy in France and Germany, when they have something to truly promote. Who knows, maybe even Estonia one day....

As for new hardware? 2025 seems good to me. Always a year after Sony with better specs. Then devs build for Sony, but it doesn't matter as the ports run better on MS new machine. Nothing amazing will happen in the one year anyway as dev times are too long.
 
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Because you can't compare the two, maybe provide some estimated repair numbers for PS3's issues so a comparison can be made.

Simply stating "PS3 didn't fare much better" with no figures to back it up doesn't really enable a comparison.
You didn't provide any number either!
I've never seen a source that equates PS3's issues to being close to 360's but I'm happy to see one if you have it.
I've never seen a source saying 50% of 360s died either.

A random Google result

1702976139210.jpeg

As with the Game Informer study, SquareTrade found that the Xbox 360's failure rate was far higher than its rivals. Some 23.7 percent of those surveyed failed within two years of purchase: 12 percent from the infamous "Red Ring of Death" and 11.7 percent from other problems, including the "E74" error. Both problems are covered by the 360's three-year manufacturer's warranty, which the company began offering in 2007 for a cost of over $1 billion.

So more failed consoles (in the first years), but many covered by a generous warranty that didn't need buying a replacement. 50% sounds ludicrously high seeing as subsequent revisions reduced the failure rate and many units were shifted later on thanks to Kinect.

1702976342511.jpeg

If you have better figures rather than just a spurious, uncorroborated remark about XB360's failure rate, feel free to share. ;)
 
Given the ecosystem inertia, it's tricky for MS, but having been around to analyze the industry for over 25 years my instinct is telling me that it's still all about the games.

I'm having a blast on my XSX, and I really do believe that MS releases six 8.5s for every three 9s that Sony gets out the door, but the fact is that when you're in 3rd place you have to do twice as well to overcome market perception and branding weaknesses.

If Halo Infinite, Starfield & Forza had all been 9s, instead of 8.5s, and must have titles then they might have attracted more attention from PS gamers.

MS has to use those 40 studios to make PS gamers jealous enough to say: "I need an Xbox/PC too."

They need Hellblade, Fable, Doom, Avowed, Gears, etc... [insert gazillion IPs] to be 9/10 must have games. They need to be relentlessly releasing AAA game after AAA game so that Sony fans are cursing the heavens because they are forced to buy an Xbox/PC to play them. 40 studios/5 year dev cycles = 8 AAA games per year, give or take, minus multiplatform CoD and some longer dev cycle games like Elder Scrolls and let's call it 6 AAA games a year.

That and a $400 X and $200 S are what's needed to turn things around in NA & UK. Then they can start promoting like crazy in France and Germany, when they have something to truly promote. Who knows, maybe even Estonia one day....

As for new hardware? 2025 seems good to me. Always a year after Sony with better specs. Then devs build for Sony, but it doesn't matter as the ports run better on MS new machine. Nothing amazing will happen in the one year anyway as dev times are too long.
I respect your knowledge and attitude, and you agree that really good quality games are needed for MS success. However, all of this has the Starfield gap in Forza as well. Starfield also received a lot of 9.5-10 point ratings, and FM offers a very good gaming experience, even if it came out buggy. But these are only two games and they wouldn't have sold more Xboxes this year even if they were evaluated at 10 points everywhere. Starfield came out in September, along with Forza, a relatively classy car game. In the most important months of October, November or even December, there were no real AAA system seller titles, and this is decisive from the point of view of sales. If a Gears 6, Fable had come at the end of this year, then we could talk about a good game release. 2024 will probably be decisive in this field.
 
MS has to use those 40 studios to make PS gamers jealous enough to say: "I need an Xbox/PC too."
It's that, or they expand the market beyond the current demographics, like Wii did. Part of the problem with this strategy is that when Xbox tried to do this, it was with Kinect and TVTVTV with the launch of Xbox One. Now, they've shifted to streaming and mobile (with King) to try to bring games to non-gamers or casual gamers.
 
I respect your knowledge and attitude, and you agree that really good quality games are needed for MS success. However, all of this has the Starfield gap in Forza as well. Starfield also received a lot of 9.5-10 point ratings, and FM offers a very good gaming experience, even if it came out buggy. But these are only two games and they wouldn't have sold more Xboxes this year even if they were evaluated at 10 points everywhere. Starfield came out in September, along with Forza, a relatively classy car game. In the most important months of October, November or even December, there were no real AAA system seller titles, and this is decisive from the point of view of sales. If a Gears 6, Fable had come at the end of this year, then we could talk about a good game release. 2024 will probably be decisive in this field.
I agree more or less, with two caveats: Starfield and Forza reviewed in the mid-8s and the reason for that is that they weren't universally acclaimed. When a game reviews in the 9s (like Spider Man 2 and Baldur's Gate 3) it generally means there is no controversy and that the game was loved by almost all reviewers and it makes a difference to brand perception. "I can count on Sony to deliver!", exclaims the PS fan. Secondly, it's shameful that a cross-gen title like GT7 was able to outshine Forza in certain areas (not across the board). It's obvious that there was turmoil at Turn 10 for this game to turn out like it did after 6 years. A game that is current-gen only in development for 6 years should have been a 9+/10 game. This shit can't happen anymore if MS is going to actually elevate the Xbox brand. They have to bury us with 9/10 AAA releases. They've certainly spent the money to do just that. Now they have to deliver. No amount of new hardware can change MS fortunes if this doesn't happen.

To expand on my earlier (mid-gen) hardware release idea: Releasing a year after Sony practically guarantees they have the more powerful box and existing Xbox fans will wait a year for it. I'm sure Sony is going to try to bring out the PS5 Pro simultaneously with GTA6, but that won't matter if MS have great trailers showing it off on their next hardware. It won't stop the diehard PS people from getting a PS5 Pro [which was always a fools errand anyway], but it will give something for the diehard Xbox fans to look forward to. Also, MS could pick two or three titles that they earmark for the new hardware as true showcases: I'm thinking Forza Horizon 6, Gears 6, and Blade.
 
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About digital libraries. I've suggested before that MS should try to get deals with the game companies about expanding game pass to include people's owned PS4/5 multiplatform *digital* licenses if that's technically possible.
 
Brad Sams is wrong because generations matter from a software engineering/development perspective, I think Brad Sams and Jez are just given talking points by insiders(remember they used to say a midgen refresh wouldnt happen, there would be no slimmer consoles, SSD prices wouldnt go down, and other such non technical view points). Having a fixed set of hardware(especially memory) that you know you can design your game around is one of the major advantages of generations. Consoles excel with this and despite not having the most powerful or expensive individual components, the sum of parts and software development kits provide a stable platform for game development. Cross compatibility of games has improved in part because of the move to X86 CPUs so more console titles appear on PC as well as the reverse BUT games dont automatically scale as Brad Sams thinks. It takes effort to make games run on multiple configurations of hardware.

A very good case is Xbox and their unified GDK which has caused issues with games like BG3 because of the much higher performance requirements for console titles. Microsoft couldnt allow certain features of BG3 run on the Series S in an "as is capable of" form as happens on PC. This led delays as the BG3 team looked for memory optimizations and in the end never spent time optimizing the game for the Series X. So Xbox's efforts to build a universal game development kit havent panned out quite well because games don't automatically scale. Imagine they paid a lot more for their Series X APU but you cannot see any meaningful difference between PS5 and Series X games. There should have been at least a notable difference in terms of fps between the two consoles(Series X has a notably more powerful CPU with fixed clock speeds as well as a more powerful GPU with almost as many cores as the upcoming PS5 pro) but Sony's focus on a single console with a great easy to use software development kit, has worked out better than the Xbox dream of a single GDK with virtual instances of the Series X and Series S and automatically scaling the games up or down. The PS5 pro on the other hand is primarily going to provide higher fps performance with as much minimal effort from developers as Sony can achieve. Anything extra will be up to the developer and you can see this from the fact the amount of RAM is still going to be 16GB. I think because of this the PS5 pro will provide incredible value for both consumers and developers who have limited time, money and human resources.

Also if Xbox releases the next gen Xbox in 2026 it will be a blunder because the PS5 pro will provide 60 fps performance for most games from 2024-2027/2028. It would be embarrassing for them to spend so much money on hardware they call next gen yet it would basically be providing the same advantage as the PS5 pro over current gen games. And within a year or two Sony would release a more powerful console at a lower production cost with a clear software development road map to fully utilize the hardware. Sony's next gen console would have to go through 2-3 years of cross generational games wheras the next gen Xbox would have to go through 3 or 4 years of cross gen games if its launched in 2026.
 
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