Do you think there will be a mid gen refresh console from Sony and Microsoft?

[Shifty Geezer]

There's a difference between closing a studio every once in a while, as happens all the time, and ending a business (arm). When publishers go bust, they sell their assets, which is what effectively would be the result of XB withdrawing from the market.

 

[metacore]

I cant stress how much of a disaster it would be if Microsoft try and rush a new generation. If anything, the smarter play is to extend this generation longer than normal. Microsoft surely cant be so stupid to think that devs will all stop what they're doing, abandon the hugely popular PS5 and start retooling and developing for their new Xbox, right? And if not, then what's the point? It'll just be a glorified Xbox Series X Pro model, all while a true PS6 will come out 2-3 years later and destroy the Xbox in terms of specs while also having the clout to get developers onboard.

Probably they have are looking on sales curve and thinking there is no gas in the tank for another 4 years. That's main reason for early launch despite not ideal conditions.

I think everyone's agreed that 3 years isn't much time for tech to advance. A PS6 in 2028/9 will be little more than a pro upgrade to an Xbox Series Y released in 2026, unless there's some magical new way for Sony to get more power from the same basic technologies. Sony will need at least 6 years, likely around 8, past anything MS releases to release something that's a whole generation ahead and looks it (and vice versa). Indeed, this new reality brings more flexibility to hardware releases. Without price drops and huge tech acceleration every year, it almost doesn't matter what and when you release. It'll be no cheaper, nor particularly uncompetitive, versus something coming 2 years later, and they'll remain price and performance comparable for the following 5 years.

Yes transformational upgrades in span of 2years are not possible anymore but something like +50% performance, doubling ram density or new shiny ML/RT acceleration is on the table, whatever just arrives from foundries. Now lets look at this in conjunction with market momentum and AAA software development timelines.

Player P currently gains console userbase at 3x faster than player X, market trusts their execution.

Player X have trouble expanding console userbase, it seems to shrink to be frank. Already tried to lure casuals with cheaper hardware option and it didnt pan out. Their business plan assumes software scalability with older hardware, no expensive moonshots.


2026 comes and player X is launching with whatever is available. Given market and technical reasons above development community can only treat new platform as some extension of whats currently cooking, nothing transformative, Players X own software is purposely similar too. Given that, aside from small hardcore fanbase, most of the market is thinking wait and see.

One or two years later, developers are slowly starting to targeting higher end hardware directly. Market leader, Player P arrivers riding on that wave with better hardware and some own marquee software demonstrating that directly.

IMO In such conditions any mindshare/ momentum for player X is instantly gone like fart in the wind.

 

[cheapchips]

Probably they have are looking on sales curve and thinking there is no gas in the tank for another 4 years. That's main reason for early launch despite not ideal conditions.

Worked for the 360!

 

[metacore]

Yeah it worked then but things are not the same today for such push. Hardware jumps back then delivered huge upgrades on screen obvious to anyone, they could bring loads of timely produced software exclusive to hardware from very launch and competitor stumbled with multiple things; rsx, delay, price , initial software, dev environment, online and more. Non of those applies today.

 

[function]

Cross gen was about 3 years this gen, and with the huge success of PS5 and growing development timescales and budgets it'll probably be pretty long next gen too.

Even if MS do go before PS6 there will still be long tail to Series S/X games. My big concern about an accelerated timescale to MS's next gen is if it's going to cause them to abandon their ambitious looking plans for their next gen system.

Some of the stuff on here is looking pretty ambitious:

- Possible move to ARM
- Possible co-design GPU instead of licensing Navi 5
- Possibly developing a NPU
- Next Gen DXR (presumably with supporting hardware)
- New ML based upscaler

I think MS could be fine with a new system around 2006 if it's the right product, but how many of their ambitious technology goals would need to be abandoned to hit a sufficiently shortened development period?

Staying with x86, licencing a Navi derivative, and licencing or abandoning a NPU would probably shorten development, but would that deliver a sufficiently advanced product?

Without some form of advanced upscaler and without transformative RT performance what would the point of a next gen Xbox be?

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Wouldn't the dynamics be different here though? In that it wasn't so much that 360 released ahead but that the PS3 was delayed, and due to things outside of it's core gaming/graphics capabilities. This meant the 360 was able to to come out ahead while not compromising on the graphics/gaming side.

The PS3 was delayed, but also the 360 launched early relative to its predecessor, which launched in 2001 with 360 succeeding in 2005 just four years later in what is one of shorted console product spans in modern console history.

You're right though, things were different because 3D gaming technology was developing much quicker each year than it is now, where it feels like some developments are in the realm of diminishing returns. I'm with others in that I can't see what meaningful tech advantage launching early would provide Microsoft over PS5 Pro or PS6. That said I have no idea what weird tech Microsoft might have cooking up. Could they do something super interesting with AI ghat deliver a game that showed it off? A cool RPG for example? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It doesn't feel like anything massive can be done on the CPU or GPU front.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

Cross gen was about 3 years this gen, and with the huge success of PS5 and growing development timescales and budgets it'll probably be pretty long next gen too.

Even if MS do go before PS6 there will still be long tail to Series S/X games. My big concern about an accelerated timescale to MS's next gen is if it's going to cause them to abandon their ambitious looking plans for their next gen system.



Some of the stuff on here is looking pretty ambitious:

- Possible move to ARM
- Possible co-design GPU instead of licensing Navi 5
- Possibly developing a NPU
- Next Gen DXR (presumably with supporting hardware)
- New ML based upscaler

I think MS could be fine with a new system around 2006 if it's the right product, but how many of their ambitious technology goals would need to be abandoned to hit a sufficiently shortened development period?

Staying with x86, licencing a Navi derivative, and licencing or abandoning a NPU would probably shorten development, but would that deliver a sufficiently advanced product?

Without some form of advanced upscaler and without transformative RT performance what would the point of a next gen Xbox be?

The entire thing is just spitballing in the moment. The "Cloud based streaming" whatever is already dead, tried by others and flopped. So of course the plans have changed.

Microsoft "throw money at the problem" solution though might look like: Next gen dual strategy. One "mobile first" Switch style handheld with a low price (Series M). One "Local cloud" high end stationary console with a high price; that's built to stream locally to any screen/device nearby (Series XC). Controller is Wifi Direct so you can just carry it with you throughout the house (because this ones for wealthy types).

 

[QPlayer]

At the moment, I see only one real solution for MS to boost console sales, and that is the many exclusive games. You have to understand this, even if you are thinking primarily about Game Pass subscriptions. Because subscriptions are also generated by GAMES! It can be seen that the multiplatform console philosophy does not bring enough subscribers and does not move the Xbox cart forward. If MS cares about a lot of subscribers, it needs to rethink its current strategy and release lots of console exclusive games. Now they have 60 development studios, they can do it. Whether they do it with the current Series X/S or a new Xbox in 2025 is almost irrelevant. New advertising campaign based on own games. Microsoft, the success of XBOX NEEDS A LOT OF EXCLUSIVE GAMES!

 

[Frenetic Pony]

I'll go further:

Edit-

2028:
Series M: 8 Core Zen 7 LP, XDNA AI thing, (RDNA6 effectively) 1 GPU chiplet 2 16CU SEs, 16GB 128bit 24gbps GDDR7 memory, 5+ teraflop (well, "12+" with double fp) mobile 1Se BC with Series S, 2Se 12tf plugged in BC with Series X, 5gpbs flash drive, 1080p, $349.
Series XC: 8 Core Zen 7 full, 2 XDNA AI chiplets, (RDNA6...) 96CU 3 chiplet GPU, 24GB 256bit 36gbps GDDR7 memory, 36+ teraflop (well, "60+"), 15gbps SSD, $599. Basically an RTX 5080 (4090+) for $599.

Basically anything that works on mobile at 1080p 30 works on big one at 4k 120 (frame interpolated of course)

At the moment, I see only one real solution for MS to boost console sales, and that is the many exclusive games. You have to understand this, even if you are thinking primarily about Game Pass subscriptions. Because subscriptions are also generated by GAMES! It can be seen that the multiplatform console philosophy does not bring enough subscribers and does not move the Xbox cart forward. If MS cares about a lot of subscribers, it needs to rethink its current strategy and release lots of console exclusive games. Now they have 60 development studios, they can do it. Whether they do it with the current Series X/S or a new Xbox in 2025 is almost irrelevant. New advertising campaign based on own games. Microsoft, the success of XBOX NEEDS A LOT OF EXCLUSIVE GAMES!

What do you think they just spent $100 billion dollars doing? They've got more exclusives coming up than the rest of the games industry combined, they definitely don't need any more.

 

[QPlayer]

I'll go further:

2028:
Series M: 8 Core Zen 7 LP, XDNA AI things, (RDNA6 effectively) 18(out of 20)CU GPU, 16GB 64bit 28gbps GDDR7 memory, 6+ teraflop (well, "12+" with double fp) mobile BC with Series S, 12tf plugged in BC with Series X, 5gpbs flash drive, 1080p, $349.
Series XC: 8 Core Zen 7 full, XDNA AI, (RDNA6...) 96CU heavily chiplet based GPU, 24GB 256bit 36gbps GDDR7 memory, 30+ teraflop (well, "60+"), 15gbps SSD, $599. Basically an RTX 5080 (4090+) for $599.

What do you think they just spent $100 billion dollars doing? They've got more exclusives coming up than the rest of the games industry combined, they definitely don't need any more.

 

[QPlayer]

I'll go further:

2028:
Series M: 8 Core Zen 7 LP, XDNA AI things, (RDNA6 effectively) 18(out of 20)CU GPU, 16GB 64bit 28gbps GDDR7 memory, 6+ teraflop (well, "12+" with double fp) mobile BC with Series S, 12tf plugged in BC with Series X, 5gpbs flash drive, 1080p, $349.
Series XC: 8 Core Zen 7 full, XDNA AI, (RDNA6...) 96CU heavily chiplet based GPU, 24GB 256bit 36gbps GDDR7 memory, 30+ teraflop (well, "60+"), 15gbps SSD, $599. Basically an RTX 5080 (4090+) for $599.



What do you think they just spent $100 billion dollars doing? They've got more exclusives coming up than the rest of the games industry combined, they definitely don't need any more.

I don't think it's that important that it's technically a huge jump in specs. I think good-sounding game titles are needed to launch the new console. In terms of perception:

- A new Halo opening title, in an extremely spectacular cinematic style like previous Halos.
- Elder Scrolls 6 opening title
- Forza Horizon 6 opening title
- GEARS 6 opening title
- Crash Bandicot opening title
- Diablo 4 exclusive DLCs
- Overwatch 2 exclusive contents

The first year will see:
- New DOOM or Quake
- A new AAA Battle Royal that brings a similar platform to MS as Fortnite or Apex Legends, this could be from the COD team.
- Sea of Thieves 2
- Indiana Jones
- The Blade
- Many external AA and Indie exclusives.

And to build this continuously every year.

All this on a new console, would you buy this console with these titles? I think a LOT of people.

 

[techuse]

The PS3 was delayed, but also the 360 launched early relative to its predecessor, which launched in 2001 with 360 succeeding in 2005 just four years later in what is one of shorted console product spans in modern console history.

You're right though, things were different because 3D gaming technology was developing much quicker each year than it is now, where it feels like some developments are in the realm of diminishing returns. I'm with others in that I can't see what meaningful tech advantage launching early would provide Microsoft over PS5 Pro or PS6. That said I have no idea what weird tech Microsoft might have cooking up. Could they do something super interesting with AI ghat deliver a game that showed it off? A cool RPG for example? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It doesn't feel like anything massive can be done on the CPU or GPU front.

Could Nvidia’s focus moving to other markets be a factor in the stagnation of hardware though?

 

[^M^]

What if MS release the next console in the XB series? The execution of the rolling generations, or rather rolling platform, that exists in every other market with their annual updates?

It would be interesting to see Microsoft end of life the serie S and make support for serie X / new gen the new standard.
But I don't think that will happen

 

[Sonic]

Could Nvidia’s focus moving to other markets be a factor in the stagnation of hardware though?

Maybe? But don't pin that in Nvidia as they're essentially the only ones innovating in reap time graphic from a hardware perspective. AMD follows them from like a mile back just trying to catch up.

 

[techuse]

Maybe? But don't pin that in Nvidia as they're essentially the only ones innovating in reap time graphic from a hardware perspective. AMD follows them from like a mile back just trying to catch up.

It isn’t a blame game, I just wonder if we are really at the wall of hardware design or the money is being focused elsewhere.

 

[Sonic]

That does pose a good question. We do know that we're facing limitations when it comes to process node shrinks and they keep getting more expensive. My Hohenwald that there'd have been more stacking of chips by now. I'd love to 1gb of edram sandwiched between two gpu dies providing insane levels of bandwidth to a sizable pool of memory.

 

[techuse]

That does pose a good question. We do know that we're facing limitations when it comes to process node shrinks and they keep getting more expensive. My Hohenwald that there'd have been more stacking of chips by now. I'd love to 1gb of edram sandwiched between two gpu dies providing insane levels of bandwidth to a sizable pool of memory.

What did ever happened to 3d stacking? It feels like we were supposed to have it years ago.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Could Nvidia’s focus moving to other markets be a factor in the stagnation of hardware though?

Nvidia will also chase profitable markets, that began with people willing to throw more and more money for graphics, along with 'pro' versions for CAD. After compute then they chased those markets, first general compute which is used in a lot of research fields, then crypto, and now Nvidia's fasted growing and more profitable sector is AI. Any perceived stagnation in GPUs is because Nvidia are putting their bets engineers in the sectors which are bringing in the most money and are also the most competitive.

 

[Seanspeed]

What if MS release the next console in the XB series? The execution of the rolling generations, or rather rolling platform, that exists in every other market with their annual updates?

I think everyone's agreed that 3 years isn't much time for tech to advance. A PS6 in 2028/9 will be little more than a pro upgrade to an Xbox Series Y released in 2026, unless there's some magical new way for Sony to get more power from the same basic technologies. Sony will need at least 6 years, likely around 8, past anything MS releases to release something that's a whole generation ahead and looks it (and vice versa). Indeed, this new reality brings more flexibility to hardware releases. Without price drops and huge tech acceleration every year, it almost doesn't matter what and when you release. It'll be no cheaper, nor particularly uncompetitive, versus something coming 2 years later, and they'll remain price and performance comparable for the following 5 years.

At that point they'd sell them off. Too much in them to just shutter and wipe $70 billion from the companies value.

I wasn't suggesting that a PS6 would be a 'whole generation' ahead. But 2-3 years is absolutely enough to have a very decisive technical advantage. And if it's just gonna be a 'Series next' console, then it's not a new generation as we've kind of been discussing. I dont think that model really works anyways for many reasons that have been talked about in terms of the 'generations versus evolutionary' quite a bit elsewhere.

As for just selling off all their studios, that would not be easy with how many they have now. Especially AAA studios. Those aren't easy to sell and you're not guaranteed to get a buyer, or somebody who the studio themselves feels comfortable with(which has to be taken into account or else a company is just gonna buy up a studio where half the team quit...). Location also matters, perhaps a company isn't interested in owning a studio where there are high labor and office costs. Closing studios is often just simpler than selling them.

And realize this probably wouldn't all just be a 'sudden' thing. This would be an ongoing process as they try and fix their disastrous financial problems and I would be very surprised if a number of studios weren't simply shuttered along the way, before eventually the decision comes to axe Xbox for good.

 

[davis.anthony]

The way Xbox was absolutely battered in November hardware sales there might not even be another Xbox 'console'

Even I'm shocked how bad is it.