Do you think there will be a mid gen refresh console from Sony and Microsoft?

[dobwal]

That's probably not enough to swing the console market much. It's like Coke, Pepsi, and Virgin Cola...there are already two popular brands of cola and no reason for people to switch. MS would need a crazy amount of killer titles to take the eyes off PS and NSW now. Their chance to compete on games and library and experience was XBO, off the back of 360. Now if they want to compete on consoles with a view to being number one of a balanced competition, I think they need a USP. I dare say MS feel that way too given recent comments - consoles just aren't important to them now.

The value of a mid-gen refresh would be to offer a USP. MS can either create a niche target, like the Elite Controller, a product just to drive brand and high-end profit margins, or go for a Switch/Kinect unique experience to attract new XB customers.

For Sony, there's no obvious business need for a higher-tier PS5, and the move would be just to sell at margins to enthusiasts for prestige and a little extra cash. Unless they too have an opportunity for a 'disruptive' refresh, but I've no idea what could be other than, like MS, a Switch knockoff*

* The tablet/hybrid being my idea for PS4, remember.

Agreed. But a focus and capability to create great games would have a positive effect on the Xbox business as we move along gens. I personally think it was the games that made the biggest difference with the 360 in comparison with the XB OG and the PS3. Sony's missteps helped of course. But if MS concentrates on making great games and does a good job of doing so, it only has to wait for Sony to f#$% up and we can have the 360/PS3 gen all over again.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

That may be true. But the issue is if that turns out not to be the case. Motion was a very temporary feature for consoles but it drove the early success of the Wii (while Kinect drove late-gen success for the 360) but it took MS and Sony almost 4-5 years to respond. Now motion is relatively unimportant in gaming. You can't forsee what differentiator will actually be a difference maker for a platform. And what works for one gen may not work for another.

To me, the PS4 Pro and One X did little to change the landscape of the market. Logic tells me they won't do much for this gen either. But in a new gen where RT performance is underwhelming on base consoles, a Pro version may attract a ton of sales. There is no way of knowing.

I don't see the need for a Pro console but I do understand the investment into them as the investment allows for a more nimble response, if a product is launched and the market gravitates towards it.

I'd say the average user doesn't give a shit about how much "raytracing" a console has. Tears of the Kingdom looks only modestly better than Breath of the Wild and just sold 10 million copies in less than a week, beating out the astoundingly successful Mario movie in revenue over time easy.

I love visuals, I enjoyed Hogwarts just from wandering around the castle and grounds, it's the most astounding environment art I've ever seen in a game, by far. But I'm convinced the people that obsess over "How many rays!!" don't actually care about visuals, or even playing games. It's just the computer analogue of people that buy a Mustang for a car. You'd never actually want to drive fast in a Mustang, they handle like shit, they're just "marketing cool". People that actually like to drive fast buy Subaru WRX's, which have the most speeding tickets of any car model by far. WRXs don't "look cool", but they drive like a dream for the price you pay. The former is bought by the sort of influencer that has their bro take what amounts to modelling shots of them with their new car, and yes I just saw that happening in person last week, while the latter car regularly wins rally championships.

So any mid gen upgrades are going to be just marketing to the types of people that "want moar rays". The problem is I'm not sure the market is that big. The previous mid gen ones got marketing "synergy" from the "4k" push, but right now there's no 4k hype to go along with any console upgrades. They'll almost certainly do poorly compared to last time if they cost any significant amount more.

 

[Remij]

Yes. But the hardware department is very different from the game development department. Smashing more people into the kitchen doesn’t mean you’re going to get Michelin star food suddenly.

So the hardware teams can do their thing (and they are quite good at it) and the OS and platform teams can do their thing (also good at it) but their studios need guidance or support in a way they are not currently receiving.

It's a waste to design and develop multiple console skus per generation targeting high and low specs.... when you're literally a PC/Windows platform company and the PC platform already covers the gambit. As good as their hardware/OS teams may be... it's more logical to just release two Xbox branded pre-built PCs targeting those configurations instead.

It just adds needless complexity to the entire chain.. having to design multiple bespoke console SKUs, a console specific OS and UI.. then have all those teams try to cross collaborate and synergize... when they could literally serve everyone with hardware already built by others... and focus on a singular UI and platform which supports them all.

 

[iroboto]

It's a waste to design and develop multiple console skus per generation targeting high and low specs.... when you're literally a PC/Windows platform company and the PC platform already covers the gambit. As good as their hardware/OS teams may be... it's more logical to just release two Xbox branded pre-built PCs targeting those configurations instead.

It just adds needless complexity to the entire chain.. having to design multiple bespoke console SKUs, a console specific OS and UI.. then have all those teams try to cross collaborate and synergize... when they could literally serve everyone with hardware already built by others... and focus on a singular UI and platform which supports them all.

Agreed. So they will just work on the next console which should carry into the cloud. Local machines may be a pointless endeavour if the power requirements don’t work. They need a solid cheap highly deployable cloud solution by the end of this generation.

 

[milk]

Its worth remembering that when MS presented the new XB Series S console to digital foundry, they justified it with the fact that the RnD investment of re-engineering a shrunk slim model of an existing design vs. creating a completely new one using the latest tech is not that different, and as such The Series S was meant to replace the One entirely.

If that's how MS sees it, they will eventually build new Xbox models that are more capable, even if just marginally so. As long as they are back compat, they'll be good.

I expect MS to finally embrace the rolling-gen model entirely. They've been building up to this so far. In that sense, they won't have a mid-gen refresh per-se, because they will abandon the concept of gens for good, like they taunted with the One X reveal, but didn't follow through then...

 

[milk]

IMO, currently MS needs to just focus on making great games, because it doesn't matter how powerful your console is when you're releasing mediocre games that nobody wants to buy.

Speaking further out, and I might get hate for this, but I truly think that they should just stop building dedicated consoles, and instead release a "high end" model and a "low end" model of Xbox branded small form factor PCs as their "future consoles". Consolidate all efforts on improving development environment/tools for the PC, build a good gaming frontend UI for Windows that works great on TVs.. and go from there. Developers are already building PC versions of all these games anyway... The two "console" SKUs they release could just be "presets" automatically set by the game after detecting which device it's running on. Of course the user would still have full control just as any PC, if they chose.

The Xbox was born from the idea of the PC in the living room... and it's only right that it comes full circle

I think that is a smart strategy too. Make the XB OS interface as just a living-room mode for windows in general, a universal Windows feature acessible to PCs too.

They'd have the option to open up xbox to play regular PC games too then, like a Steam box, but for a consolidated MS store + XB store. Hell, then xbox can play Sony exclusives.

Of course, going that route, they'll lose the fat royalties from software released in their private walled garden on the consoles, which is not a small financial risk.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

They'd have the option to open up xbox to play regular PC games too then, like a Steam box, but for a consolidated MS store + XB store. Hell, then xbox can play Sony exclusives.

Sony first parties.

Of course, going that route, they'll lose the fat royalties from software released in their private walled garden on the consoles, which is not a small financial risk.

For MS it's small. If the gains in ecosystem growth and GP subs etc. are worth it, it makes a lot of sense. And given their feelings about the console space and just kinda turning up rather than intending to win, I think it's a comfortable segue from consoles to "Windows XB."

 

[milk]

For MS it's small. If the gains in ecosystem growth and GP subs etc. are worth it, it makes a lot of sense. And given their feelings about the console space and just kinda turning up rather than intending to win, I think it's a comfortable segue from consoles to "Windows XB."

Agreed. I think there are more net wins than losses in that path. It can offer some true disruption in the console market, and considering MS current position there, they dont have all tha much to lose, and its worth the risk.

 

[Remij]

Of course, going that route, they'll lose the fat royalties from software released in their private walled garden on the consoles, which is not a small financial risk.

I was thinking about that.. and what they could do about it.

They still have the "MS store" walled garden and could switch publishers over from the Xbox Store to that. (obviously fix it too lol) Developers would still deploy their games on "Xbox" (the MS Store) and other PC clients/storefronts, like they do today. MS would get royalties from everything released on the MS store (ideally giving developers a good incentive to release there as well, like say perhaps a 12% royalty fee instead of 30% since they no longer have all this console specific infrastructure to maintain).. as well as cloud support, and Game Pass deals.

Their users already have a library of first party games which will automatically show up on the new device since a lot of it was already cross-buy, that.. and Game Pass would continue being a strong incentive for them to continue using the MS store over other PC storefronts/clients.

I mean, MS is already gearing up for the inevitability of losing that console walled garden... that's what the acquisitions and cloud push is for. When the cloud revolution comes, publishers can be freed of console constraints and could partner with anyone... potentially leaving Xbox/PS/Nintendo's cloud services without their games. Ideally MS will want publishers to sign up to their service and offer their games through them... it will be a war for content just like it is on local hardware, but publishers will demand higher percentages since there's no longer all this supply chain and retail stuff to consider... and the bigger ones could simply do it all on their own.

Basically, just make the transition as smooth as possible, continue to have publishers release versions of 3rd party games on the MS store, and incentivize people to use the Xbox app through Game Pass and continuing the library of first party games they already have.

 

[techuse]

Given GPU performance and pricing, I don't see how a meaningful upgrade over PS5 is possible without a large price hike.

 

[Riddlewire]

Given GPU performance and pricing, I don't see how a meaningful upgrade over PS5 is possible without a large price hike.

I'm sure that's what Sony and Microsoft are pondering.
Exactly how large is the market for an "enthusiast" model?
How many console gamers are there that would pay $1000 for a premium console gaming experience.
I suspect the number is a lot larger than most are thinking.

 

[Flappy Pannus]

Given GPU performance and pricing, I don't see how a meaningful upgrade over PS5 is possible without a large price hike.

We're talking late 2024 for this supposed refresh though, and depends what you mean by 'large' for a price hike.

Double the CU's maybe, architectural improvements of RDNA3, add a little Infinity cache + maybe a slight uptick in GDDR6 speeds to help alleviate the increased bandwidth demands. Would that be possible in late 2024 for a $100 premium, say $599? Or even $500 for digital only? I don't see it as that outlandish.

Up until the actual announcement, it was quite common to see people assume the price of the PS5/SX would be $600+. Certainly expecting $400 for the digital version was regarded as extremely optimistic at least from the online circles I frequented. But, they did it - well, for the US at least. When you're taking tens of millions or orders at a time you can get some pretty good contracts that make comparing to the prices of PC GPU's not particularly relevant, especially now.

Like I'm not expecting 4080 performance or anything, but a 6800/XT in a $500-$600 console in 2024? I can see it.

 

[techuse]

I'm sure that's what Sony and Microsoft are pondering.
Exactly how large is the market for an "enthusiast" model?
How many console gamers are there that would pay $1000 for a premium console gaming experience.
I suspect the number is a lot larger than most are thinking.

I think it's small. I don't think One X and Pro sold well at all and those were only small price hikes.

We're talking late 2024 for this supposed refresh though, and depends what you mean by 'large' for a price hike.

Double the CU's maybe, architectural improvements of RDNA3, add a little Infinity cache + maybe a slight uptick in GDDR6 speeds to help alleviate the increased bandwidth demands. Would that be possible in late 2024 for a $100 premium, say $599? Or even $500 for digital only? I don't see it as that outlandish.

Up until the actual announcement, it was quite common to see people assume the price of the PS5/SX would be $600+. Certainly expecting $400 for the digital version was regarded as extremely optimistic at least from the online circles I frequented. But, they did it - well, for the US at least. When you're taking tens of millions or orders at a time you can get some pretty good contracts that make comparing to the prices of PC GPU's not particularly relevant, especially now.

Like I'm not expecting 4080 performance or anything, but a 6800/XT in a $500-$600 console in 2024? I can see it.

I imagine they would have to go up to at least $650 and that wouldn't even result in a doubling of performance. RDNA 3 turned out to be quite the dud.

 

[eastmen]

I think it's small. I don't think One X and Pro sold well at all and those were only small price hikes.


I imagine they would have to go up to at least $650 and that wouldn't even result in a doubling of performance. RDNA 3 turned out to be quite the dud.

But why RDNA 3 in 2024 ? The xbox series and ps5 both launched at the same time as RDNA 2 for pc. Now I know everyone likes to debate exactly what is in the ps5. But in the xbox we know its fully rdna 2. So why wouldn't we be looking at Zen 5 and RDNA 4 for a refresh ? That alone could provide enough of a boost to make said upgrade worth while

 

[techuse]

But why RDNA 3 in 2024 ? The xbox series and ps5 both launched at the same time as RDNA 2 for pc. Now I know everyone likes to debate exactly what is in the ps5. But in the xbox we know its fully rdna 2. So why wouldn't we be looking at Zen 5 and RDNA 4 for a refresh ? That alone could provide enough of a boost to make said upgrade worth while

I don’t believe RDNA 4 will be ready by then, not to mention how expensive it will presumably be on these smaller manufacturing nodes. The path towards a better CPU is certainly a much easier one but also less needed. To make a Pro console worth it you need at least a 2x increase to GPU performance to even begin to justify it. The Pro was not justified with its performance profile IMO.

 

[Globalisateur]

But why RDNA 3 in 2024 ? The xbox series and ps5 both launched at the same time as RDNA 2 for pc. Now I know everyone likes to debate exactly what is in the ps5. But in the xbox we know its fully rdna 2. So why wouldn't we be looking at Zen 5 and RDNA 4 for a refresh ? That alone could provide enough of a boost to make said upgrade worth while

For Sony it's probably going to be fully custom. Like some RDNA 2 + 3 + 4 mix. For Pro it was a mix of Polaris + Vega features Sony liked the best + some (still) exclusive features they wanted.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

For Sony it's probably going to be fully custom. Like some RDNA 2 + 3 + 4 mix.

RDNA 9.

 

[davis.anthony]

But in the xbox we know its fully rdna 2.

Except it's not, it's a mix of RDNA1 and RDNA2 just like PS5.

It just has more RDNA2 in it than PS5 does.

 

[eastmen]

Except it's not, it's a mix of RDNA1 and RDNA2 just like PS5.

It just has more RDNA2 in it than PS5 does.

Defining the Next Generation: An Xbox Series X|S Technology Glossary - Xbox Wire

[Editor’s Note: Updated on 10/21 at 11AM to ensure it is now reflective of the capabilities across both of our next-gen Xbox consoles following the unveil of Xbox Series S.] As we enter a new generation of console gaming with Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S, we’ve made a number of technology...

news.xbox.com

RDNA 2 – The custom designed processor in the Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S leverages RDNA 2, the latest next generation graphics architecture from our partners at AMD. RDNA 2 provides a significant advancement in performance and efficiency as well as next generation graphics features such as hardware accelerated raytracing and variable rate shading. Our new Xbox consoles are uniquely positioned to take advantage of the full feature set of RDNA 2 in hardware, only possible on Xbox consoles.

 

[davis.anthony]

Defining the Next Generation: An Xbox Series X|S Technology Glossary - Xbox Wire

[Editor’s Note: Updated on 10/21 at 11AM to ensure it is now reflective of the capabilities across both of our next-gen Xbox consoles following the unveil of Xbox Series S.] As we enter a new generation of console gaming with Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S, we’ve made a number of technology...

news.xbox.com

Sigh, we've been though this so many times.

It has the full RDNA2 feature set, but not the full RDNA2 architecture, you do not need the full RDNA2 architecture to have the full RDNA2 feature set.

It even says it right there in the part you quoted

Our new Xbox consoles are uniquely positioned to take advantage of the full feature set of RDNA 2 in hardware.

As far as I'm aware Microsoft have never stated it's full RDNA2 architecture, they've always stated it has the full RDNA2 feature set which is not the same thing.

As it's been clarified this is how they line up in terms of what they're made up of.

PS5:

• Front end = RDNA1
• CU's = RDNA2
• Back end = RDNA1(Hence lack of hardware VRS support)

Series consoles:

• Front end = RDNA1
• CU's = RDNA2
• Back end = RDNA2 (Hence hardware VRS support)