scooby_dooby
Legend
Dispatches From the Console Wars
- Thread starter pipo
- Start date
I have seen them re-calc their numbers downward at least 1x in the past. I believe it may be "known sales + expected sales rate".
So if there were 6M units up through October and an expected 1.5M to be sold in November based on past console sales progressions, specifically the Xbox, it would interpolate. That is my guess from watching that.
That said, the 360 is in more territories than the Xbox1 if I remember correctly.
So if there were 6M units up through October and an expected 1.5M to be sold in November based on past console sales progressions, specifically the Xbox, it would interpolate. That is my guess from watching that.
That said, the 360 is in more territories than the Xbox1 if I remember correctly.
Well certainly it's a mystery
But if you browse the site's HTML source,
Code:
//window.setInterval("read_cont()", 7000);
//window.setInterval("read_cont2()", 20000);
...
function read_cont() {
zeit = new Date();
ms = (zeit.getHours() * 24 * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getMinutes() * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getSeconds() * 1000) + zeit.getMilliseconds();
read_it = 1;
makeRequest("update_data2.php?x=" + ms);
}
function read_cont2() {
zeit = new Date();
ms = (zeit.getHours() * 24 * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getMinutes() * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getSeconds() * 1000) + zeit.getMilliseconds();
read_it = 2;
makeRequest("update_data2.php?page=results&x=" + ms);
}http://www.nexgenwars.com/update_data2.php
it's updated before your eyes! Do you honestly believe it can be trusted? I don't.
Do we know exactly how many Wiis were available on day one (today) though? I know we've heard 2 million and 4 mil by 2007 but i'd still like to get the hard facts of today.
Well certainly it's a mystery
Apparently this guy who's running that site had to stop it to update every 7 seconds because of the AJAX load. But if you reload thisCode://window.setInterval("read_cont()", 7000); //window.setInterval("read_cont2()", 20000); ... function read_cont() { zeit = new Date(); ms = (zeit.getHours() * 24 * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getMinutes() * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getSeconds() * 1000) + zeit.getMilliseconds(); read_it = 1; makeRequest("update_data2.php?x=" + ms); } function read_cont2() { zeit = new Date(); ms = (zeit.getHours() * 24 * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getMinutes() * 60 * 1000) + (zeit.getSeconds() * 1000) + zeit.getMilliseconds(); read_it = 2; makeRequest("update_data2.php?page=results&x=" + ms); }
http://www.nexgenwars.com/update_data2.php
it's updated before your eyes! Do you honestly believe it can be trusted? I don't.
Are you asking if some random guy's prediction's can be trusted? Or by listing the script, are you insinuating that the whole thing is made up? In the end, it's just an interesting way of displaying forecasted sales.
Its looking around 500,000 were available on launch day. I'm guessing that's going to be the "official" number that comes out. Sold out too, damn impressive launch.
It's a prediction? Wow... so this guy is predicting it every 3 minutes 24/7?
I guess when there are too many voters in one console the site admin just reduces it manually.
Why are you being obtuse about this? Obviously (or rather, the most obvious thing is), he takes the most recent sales data, extrapolates out for the next month, and then works backword depending on when you viewed the site. As Laa Yosh says right after yours, it's just a dramatic effect.
How did he get the Wii number then before anyone else in the US? It's also extrapolation? Too dramatic for me, it seems
Yeah, however it can be view that demand is not there enough for the X360 to over take the PS2 numbers. However from the trending seen on the X360 the hardware demand seems modest (the software sell through is pretty good thou). I will say that reasonably the numbers have been within the core market and that has also been the critizing point towards the appeal to its (Xbox brand)base both in terms of games and analysis.
As Hector goes "Ch-ching!"
Hardware sales for the 360 so far is a bit disappointing but it is 300-400 dollars compared to a 130 dollar 6 year old console with hundreds of games. I'd expect with GOW (the first killer app) to really push h/w sales in Nov. The price of entry is just too high for the average consumer. On s/w, I wouldn't call the awesome attach rate of 4.6:1 s/w to h/w ratio just 'pretty good', more like great/awesome.
Actually, the delayed european release of the PS3, combined with Gears, Lost Planet and Splinter Cell, have been enough to convince one of my collegues who is a bigtime Sony fan to buy an X360 with two from the above mentioned games. He is quite amazed at GOW, too... And this may happen to many PS fans here in Europe until Christmas.
That article is a bit ridiculous,to be honest.First of al the xbox360 isn't really selling worse than the original xbox anywhere but Japan(and the numbers for the original xbox were so smal in Japan that it doesn't really matter).The differerence is that the 360 didn't have a proper launch last holiday season,ulike the original xbox,so its launch sales were much lower.It has allready almost caught the original xbox in the U.S despite having sold almost a million consoles less in its first 2 months(600l vs. 1.5+ million).In Europe the console is faring much better than the original xbox did both on the hardware and software fronts.It was at around 1.4 million at the end of septmber and ,according to thrd parties' reports like THQ,it will have an installed base of AT LEAST 2.5 million consoles at the end of 2006.That's about half of the total installed base of the original xbox.Australia also contributes to the Pal numbers with the 360 having record sales there.All that with the premium xbox360(premium xbox360=original xbox,IMO since both have the HD) costing 200$ more(the original xbox was at 199$ from March of 2002).Not that for such an expensive console that isn't a playstation.
Secondly the points about 3rd parties look like fairy tales.Assasin's Creed was first announced as an xbox360 game ages ago and Ubisoft has had an excellent relationship with MS all these years.Why would Ubisoft offer such a high profile game exclusively to Sony??It has been well-known for a long time that Rockstar was looking at a multiplatform release of next gen GTA,heck the rumors were that MS is trying really hard to get this game as an EXCLUSIVE for the 360.I really don't recall the ps2 having any significant western exclusives other than GTA and that was a timed exclusive.
MS has a lot of western exclusives cause the xbox360 can share the development proccess with the PC and it's easy for developers to have xbox360/PC versions of a game.MS is pursuing exclusives for both xbox360/games for windows,not just for the xbox360 and that probalby gives a bigger motive to MS.
How is Sony "not caring much" about 3rd party exclusives because they have a lot of 1st parties??First of all the 1st portfolio of Sony is way overrated as far as commersial success goes but i won't further argue that.However it seems to me that Sony is trying its hardest to keep some classic playstation franchises like MGS,FF,Tekken e.t.c exclusive so i don't see them being "less desperate" than MS.If someone asks me why would the Japanese companies consider xbox360 versions of their big games,i'd say "just look at Capcom".
Secondly the points about 3rd parties look like fairy tales.Assasin's Creed was first announced as an xbox360 game ages ago and Ubisoft has had an excellent relationship with MS all these years.Why would Ubisoft offer such a high profile game exclusively to Sony??It has been well-known for a long time that Rockstar was looking at a multiplatform release of next gen GTA,heck the rumors were that MS is trying really hard to get this game as an EXCLUSIVE for the 360.I really don't recall the ps2 having any significant western exclusives other than GTA and that was a timed exclusive.
MS has a lot of western exclusives cause the xbox360 can share the development proccess with the PC and it's easy for developers to have xbox360/PC versions of a game.MS is pursuing exclusives for both xbox360/games for windows,not just for the xbox360 and that probalby gives a bigger motive to MS.
How is Sony "not caring much" about 3rd party exclusives because they have a lot of 1st parties??First of all the 1st portfolio of Sony is way overrated as far as commersial success goes but i won't further argue that.However it seems to me that Sony is trying its hardest to keep some classic playstation franchises like MGS,FF,Tekken e.t.c exclusive so i don't see them being "less desperate" than MS.If someone asks me why would the Japanese companies consider xbox360 versions of their big games,i'd say "just look at Capcom".
I heard rumors that MS actually looked into buying rockstar at some point, never happend tho
What has my interest is 2007. Lets just assume, for arguements sake, that PS3 shortages slow Sony and the 360, for a number of reasons, doesn't get close to the 10M shipped mark. All eyes turn to the big 2007 year where the first real round will be played out which sets up the very important 2008. 2007 & 2008 are crucial for MS and Sony.
Looking at 2007 I think Sony is gonna have trouble. First is platform cost. How much are they willing to eat per console and how much cost reduction can they achieve in the next 12 months?
But more importantly is going to be software library. 2007 will see most likely see Heavenly Sword, Metal Gear Solid 4, Eye of Judgement, Lair, Virtual Fighter 5, Motorstorm, Unreal Tournament 2007, Gran Tourisimo HD, and so forth as PS3 exclusives. Not a bad lineup.
But when looking over at the 360 I think there is doing to be some disparity. First in retail price. While it is possible MS could make a $199/$299 move I think $229/$360 seems more likely (with a more robust "premium" SKU). Even if Sony can get the 20GB model down in the $349 range they are going to be at > $100 deficit.
But I think they may feel a little more sting in the games competition than they have felt before. MS has invested deeply into other developers to produce a lot of titles in the 2006-2008 timeframe. Gears of War, Blue Dragon, Lost Planet, Crackdown, Bioshock, Lost Odessey, Mass Effect, Too Human, Splinter Cell 5, Alan Wake, Wolfenstien, PGR4, and so forth. MS has also been timing their big internal franchises like Halo (Halo 3, Halo Wars), their Fable aquisition, Forza Motorsport 2, Banjo to hit these dates.
Now Sony may have a LOT of great 2007 titles they have NOT announced to avoid conflict with their launch titles, but as it stands now I think MS has a much better looking 2007 timeframe (give or take) release lineup than Sony has announced. And that doesn't include this fact: MS will have a far larger and varied back library for $29 "budget" games. That will play into consumer conscious. Factor in certain PS3 titles being cancelled due to expected delays (WWE, NBA, etc... all will be out next year of course) and I think MS will have a strong case in regards to software in 2007.
Of course Sony has some factors on their side. Some of the launch delays will pan out to be good for Sony. The launch is a success--they sold everything they had. But as more units become available in the slow time of the year seeing great titles like Motorstorm and Heavenly Sword complimented with titles like R6: Vegas, Oblivion, and Fear will give PS consumers something to chear about.
Likewise the 3rd party lineup in 2007 may be the great equalizer. GTAIV, Assassin's Creed, Brother in Arms 3, Medal of Honor: AA, GRAW2, Haze, the Darkness, VT3, HL2, Army of Two, Battlefield Bad Company, DIRT, Sega Rally, Stranglehold, and the list goes on. If a gamer is a traditional PS gamer and holding out for a FF game there will be plenty on the PS3 to keep there attention.
My guess is that MS is going to make a big bang in 2007. I am not sure a lot of PS3 fans will jump ship, but MS is making a compelling arguement and with better hardware and better pricing (and Halo) they will be in a position to increase sales significantly. 13M-15M by the end of June doesn't seem crazy if MS does introduce a large price cut. Factor in the influence MS could have in Europe with the Sony delays -- which I think will be pushed back, again -- and the next gen race gets interesting.
Similar threads
