Hardknock said:What reason would I have to doubt the estimates Sony has made about their own hardware?
Because it's as meaningless as claims that x is y times more powerful than z. I thought this is Beyond3d, shouldn't things like this be obvious? Besides, you like talking about "Sony" (= a faceless entity) as in making those claims:
1.) Do you have a direct link of where those estimates were made (both, Sony's estimate and Microsofts one) and by whom?
2.) What are you trying to accomplish by arguing one devkit of being more representative to final hardware over the other one? If it is that developers holding the more representable devkit have an advantage over the other one, are you accounting for the differences in timeframe and shipped quantities of those devkits? Are you also factoring in what kind of work are being done with those devkits; i.e. in what development phase those developers are?
*hint* at some stages in development, developers design game mechanics, ideas, plot, assets etc before starting *actual* development - are you factoring in that at those given points in development, representative hardware is wanted, but not necessarely required to progress beyond that phase?