Yeah that bit about working on alpha kits for 2 years is very suspect IMO.
Here's the thing. IMO I don't think Sony would have released the PS3 as early as they did if they had a choice. If last gen could have last 7 years before jumping to the new generation, I think Sony would have been happy with it. Why jump into the next gen, losing hundreds of dollars per unit, when the current gen is banking you so much money?
Sony didn't have a choice because there were two other players. MS wont have a choice as there are two other players.
Also the more this gen goes on the more reasons i see for sony jumping into next gen as early as possible. The ps3 has been a failure compared to the ps1/2 and with the recent lawsuits it might be best to move foward in the next two years.
MS might also not need to loose hundreds of dollars at launch with hte next gen. Who knows if they lost hundreds this gen. The ps3 was very expensive because sony filled it with largely useless stuff
Look at it this way.
Ps3 $500/$600 rumored (isupply) to cost about $800-$900 when launched . This is what it had that cost so much
1) Bluray . The drive at the start was extremely expensive and sony needed it to win against hd-dvd. They thought people would buy the ps3 no matter how much it cost because of the ps1 + 2 .
2) Cell . It was much bigger than the xbox 360 cpu and they had production problems from the start
3) Two pools of diffrent ram. A unified ram setup would allow them to save alot of money .
4) Built in hardrive . This has a fixed bom , the size may go up but price wont go down.
This gen alot of that will be by passed
1) If ms gos with bluray , its already down to close to rock bottom prices ,
2 + 3 ) ms went with a cheaper cpu last gen with a more powerful gpu , i'm sure they will do the same again , they also went unified so these costs can be avoided
4) Next gen the base model can come with built in flash.
The ps2 was selling great, the hardware was profitable, had by far the largest install base, and had some of it's greatest releases when this current gen began.
ANd the ps3 didn't affect any of that. In fact if the ps2 wasn't doing so well sony might not have been around after all the mistakes they made with the ps3
IMO MS kind of forced Sony's hand into the next gen, IMO how unfinished the ps3 was at reveal and even at launch supports this theory.
I think the unfinished software had more to do with their cpu choice. Sony has traditionaly launched systems with poor launch titles and first year titles.
Well MS is in a similar position now. The 360 is selling better than it ever has, the system recently received a second wind due to the Slim and Kinect launches, and AFAIK the system is actually profitable for MS now. Why disrupt that momentum by announcing a new console? I understand there's the argument that you want to push a new product while the momentum is in your favor, it's basically what they did with the transition from the xbox to the 360, but the scenario is different now. Basically I don't think it would be wise for MS or Sony to launch before 2013 at the earliest.
The problem is they could end up in the postion that sony was in this gen. Nintendo will go in 2012 and if sony goes in 2012 and ms goes in 13 they may not be able to make the xbox next stand out compared to the other and if sony has a year to themselves ms will launch facing a 10-20m with a system that largely doesn't stand out from the competition.
If they are able to go 2012 esp in the united states ms could have an even bigger lead than this gen before sony launches and sony may be in the same postion as last gen with them not being able to make the console stand out hardware wise
As for Kinect, with the skeletal tracking being done on the system, a new Kinect shouldn't be needed for the 720 IMO. More power should allow faster and more accurate tracking, or so I would think. I think that's why MS moved the processing from Kinect itself to the 360, this way Kinect isn't limited to a fixed set of specs, but instead can improve in future generations of hardware.
The question is what is its usb speed. Is it capable of usb 3.0 ?
Of course I can be wrong about all of this, but that's the way I see it all.
Personaly I see this senario
Xbox next launches and starts to get the core gamers onto the xbox next and they postion the xbox 360 to casual gamers through kinect.
i'm going to go out on a limb and assume ms is designing a $500-$600 system that they will sell at a loss for the first year or two . I'm thinking if it hits in 2012 it will be a 32nm system but with plans to move to 24nm as soon as possible.
MS will do a 6 core cpu + a 69x0 class gpu with most likely edram of some amount (64-128megs if possible) and 4-8 gigs of ram .
I think if they wait to long and launch with sony or after sony they will end up in third place (mabye second with nintendo in third place) Sony still has alot of pull in europe and japan
