Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by RDGoodla, Feb 4, 2020.

  1. Cyan

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    hope everything works out well for her. She is young I guess, and that helps a lot -a minister here, Irene Montero, which is pregnant, also tested positive a month ago, but she is doing fine, 'cos she is young-,

    3-6 days for a test with a 30% failure rate is a lot of time. I think there are quick tests available -6 to 8 hours to get results-. Here the tests have been performed on 1 million people already.

    On a different note, a country that is doing sooo well against the coronavirus -along with Portugal and a few others- is Greece. They started the lockdown just after 4 days the first person with coronavirus died in the country. That played a huge factor.
     
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  2. BRiT

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  3. Cyan

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    read that days ago. You explained to me how Digi's test work. Other than that, I am still wondering why there aren't quick tests being performed in..., say Ohio.

    China has been selling those tests for a while -some of them turned to be defective, but they informed about that and replaced them-. By that I mean that hospitals in cities or close to cities, offer quick tests which can be performed by anyone driving the car there, taking the test, their data is taken and they are informed hours after the test has been performed. Those with symptoms have priority. If you go there by car and have no symptoms, you are likely to be rejected.

    I mean, those quick tests are being performed in the USA somewhere. Right?
     
  4. BRiT

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    They're all the same test. They're all the quick tests. The trouble is they had to be sent off to a lab to process. Those labs have huge backlogs.
     
  5. Cyan

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    hmmmm okay. I mention this 'cos those 3-6 days tests were the ones being performed here initially, and we are the 2nd country in the world behind USA by the number of cases. Some time after that, quick tests started to be performed, so I guessed there are a few different tests.

    In the autonomous region where I live -29.575 Km2, 3.x times less the size of Ohio- we have 7,500 confirmed cases, soooo similar to Ohio, which is about 8000 something.
     
  6. Cyan

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  7. Shifty Geezer

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    There isn't a quick test. ;) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#Test_methods

    There's only PCR to see if the RNA is present. You then have antibody tests which are like a pregnancy test and 'immediate', but there's some lack of reliability there.The UK bought 3.5 million tests from China but isn't using them because they aren't considered reliable. And there is the new tech that uses LAMP instead of PCR that might be being rolled out in some countries, but that's very new and not readily available. I don't know if any countries actually have any LAMP solutions in place yet.

    Yep. Which reduces delay in getting tests done, but you still need to collect the sample, get it to the machine and get the result back. Now if you get the patient to the machine, then the time to test might be a couple of hours, but that's timing it differently. It still might involve 8 hours drive across and two hours of processing and two hours of waiting on administration to get the result. Digi's long delays are unlikely to be due to the machines and are because of the medical infrastructure and organisation. There's might even be a lot of admin with insurance companies being billed and having to agree to pay or something.
     
    #1467 Shifty Geezer, Apr 17, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
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  8. Shifty Geezer

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    That might not be as daft as it sounds. As I understand it, PCR looks for the presence of specific gene sequences. If there's a SARS-CoV-2-Lite mutation that's not as serious doing the rounds with a mutation in these genes causing it to be weaker, it won't register.

    I kinda feel someone should be looking at all the other illnesses people are reporting. There's been lots. If we investigate what bug, and there clearly is because so many of us are experiencing it on a personal level, is causing that, it may prove very helpful.
     
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  9. Mariner

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    How about this paper:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3557962

    Perhaps a close ancestor of the current Covid-19 virus was relatively widespread before it picked up the ability to bind so tightly to the ACE2 receptor. Might explain why a certain number of people are asymptomatic when they get the virus or others have very mild symptoms. If you've already got some immunity to the ancestor virus it might help? Very limited samples from that paper, of course, so just a guess. I don't think I've posted this since I first saw it the other day!
     
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  10. Shifty Geezer

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    Yep. That's been a theory postulated for a while now as to the origins. What if instead of being an animal disease that jumped to humans, it was a human disease that evolved? Though probably a recent one, because scientists are already aware of the other coronaviruses that cause colds, so you'd think they'd have come across something SARS like already. Maybe SARS become Covid1 which became Covid19?
     
  11. zed

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    We will see, IIRC I read a while ago they were doing some random sample tests on general populations to see how widespread it is, did we get the results of these back yet or not?
     
  12. Shifty Geezer

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  13. Shifty Geezer

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    Just heard on the radio the views from a doctor working in a London hospital who reckons 20% of initial Covid19 tests come back as a false negative. Covid19 patients present symptoms in a very regular way, making them pretty easy to recognise. She agreed that testing these patients at that point isn't that helpful for finding Covid19 cases. However, the xray manifests as very similar to heart disease, so a negative test can be useful to narrow down a person's problem.

    Most curiously though, she would take in patients clearly manifesting as Covid19 sufferers but the test would come back negative. Then a second test a few days later comes back positive.

    (Edit: this from a friend who works with analysers:

    "Take ##### as an example. They have 3 "slow" analysers that can each do 48 samples in 3.5 hours. They now have a "fast" analyser that can do 1000 in 3 hours. However, the new analyser is still being tested and not live as there are questions of the accuracy of the results"​

    Those faster tests @Cyan is mentioning may also be problematic?)

    That throws up another curve ball (which I think makes fifteen assorted curve balls, fast-balls, splitters and screwballs pitched our way by SARS-CoV-2) as to whether those with infection can test negative, and if so whether they are contagious when testing negative. Worst case, people testing negative have been spreading the disease, compounding the asymptomatic spreaders with undetectable spreaders. I guess if these exist, they must be rare as those nations with containment through testing are managing to keep a lid on the disease's spread.

    The antibody test failed with only 65% accuracy.

    And there's the world's largest trial of medication starting:

    The world’s biggest trial of drugs to treat Covid-19 patients has been set up in the UK at unprecedented speed, and hopes to have some answers within weeks.

    The Recovery trial has recruited over 5,000 patients in 165 NHS hospitals around the UK in a month, ahead of similar trials in the US and Europe, which have a few hundred.​
     
    #1473 Shifty Geezer, Apr 17, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
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  14. Xmas

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    It's "by specimen date", so there will be a gap between when the sample was taken and the announcement, plus few very recent samples have actually been processed yet. I don't see why those numbers should be nonsense, but the chart would be much more informative if it also showed the negative results.
     
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  15. Silent_Buddha

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    Although countries or states which do many tests are generally also countries and states with lockdown to some degree, so the spread will be naturally constrained even if say 50% of tests were inconclusive.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  16. ToTTenTranz

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    Today in Portugal we registered a 1% growth in new cases, and only 5.5% of the tested were positive. ICU occupation decreased by 3% (222 people in our ~10M population, never went above 271).

    The government is talking about reopening kindergardens in May, which were the best news I personally got in a while. I don't know if I could handle my situation for much longer.
     
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  17. digitalwanderer

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    No clue, she just went to her doctors now to find out. I'll keep you posted as I find out info, but we're all ok and surviving. :)
     
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  18. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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    2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
    https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

    April 17, 2020 - 2,190 confirmed cases - 55 deaths

    2,190 confirmed cases up 124 over yesterday and five new deaths
    Those 124 new cases represent a 6.0% increase over the last day

    Increases (by percent) over the last 22 days:
    21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%,
    10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%,
    7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%, 4.0%
    and now 6.0%

    Increases (by count) over the last 22 days:
    +64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100,
    +90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108,
    +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109, +80
    and now +124


    With today's "124 additional positive cases of COVID-19" being the highest they have ever been over the last 22 days in Dallas County our idiot "Dallas County Commissioners" vote to override Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkin's order and allow craft stores to re-open. Great Hobby Lobby can now infect more residents here in Dallas County.
     
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  19. A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y

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  20. Malo

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    Craft stores specifically? What's the reasoning there?
     
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