Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Hummm,
A lot of cheap tests and false positives

 

The UK has started its own serological tests to ascertain the proportion of the population with antibodies. They appear to limiting themselves to limited numbers (scaling up to 5000 per week) of high-quality tests. We'll see how that goes.

 

State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown



https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Data as of 4/18/2020 @ 12:45 PM:

Total Tests: 176,239 (Up +6,703)
Cases Reported: 18,260 (Up +889)
In Hospitals: 1,321 (Down -201)
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 4,806 (Up +616)
Fatalities: 453 (Up +25)

 

Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 10222 (up from 9107 ), Hospitalized: 2519 (up from 2424 ), and Deaths: 451 (up from 418 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 283 (up from 249 ), 17 (same as yesterday )
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1425 (Up from 1383 ).

Percentage increase: 12.24%, 3.92%, 7.89%
Raw increase: 1115, 95, 33

Last Sunday and Monday Ohio was in 5.x% confirmed case increases, now its Saturday and they are at the 12.x% increase, which means doubling of cases every 6 days. This estimates around 18K on April 23rd.

This is entirely going the wrong direction.

Ohio medical chiefs have admitted they're going by the WhiteHouse guidance of only looking at the numbers admitted to the hospital which completely ignores those not heading there or the actual spread rate so the real numbers are far worse.

 

Regarding the tests in Vo in Italy, they were PCR tests, not antibody ones and these took place some time after the initial wave of infection. Anyone tested who had caught and recovered from the virus wouldn't have shown up as positive/asymptomatic. I'm guessing asymptomatic cases would generally recover more quickly than more serious ones as well, so a positive PCR would be less likely.

 

Why arent scores of ppl dropping dead in poorer countries of asia, Afrika, south america? There social distancing aint as rigorously enforced as in the west, yet somehow they’re doing far far better than in the west.

How did China achieve the impossible and stop every single person from spreading it even though lots of ppl are asymptomatic. It’s only the foreigners bringing it into China now

The answer is massive numbers of ppl are getting it in these countries and most don’t even know, sure there’s some that die, but what’s an extra 20or40% to the monthly death toll?
Whatever the case I’m not looking forward to the responses from the raving excitables in the upcoming months, see we told ya, it was nothing.

 

That's only looking at some of the info. If what you're saying it true, the R0 numbers higher than 2 and the virus is fairly contagious; more so than flu because more people are being hospitalised and dying in a month than flu. Therefore, during the containment phase when those in close proximity to known cases were being tested, surely there would have been lots testing positive? But that wasn't happening. The people most likely to have been infected, those close to known positives, weren't testing positive. What you're suggesting is that other people not close to these people were catching the disease, or that lots of these people were infectious but testing negative.

It's not impossible. Lock down for two months and the virus will burn out. On the day of lockdown, there'll be a number of people infected going through incubation. That's some three weeks. Then they're symptomatic and getting recorded in the stats. Two weeks later, all those cases are ended leaving none left to infect anyone new. Add in a few more weeks for the disease to burn out because the lockdown isn't perfect, and you've got Wuhan. Follow up with extremely thorough containment.

If your theory is solid, it should have a good argument as to why early testing was producing such a low proportion of positives. It should have been very obvious in the early days that loads of people were infected without (significant) symptoms. I think it's far easier to explain away low death rates at the moment in poorer countries (questionable reporting, earlier into the disease and only just hitting sizeable exponential growth, environmental factors, etc) then to explain early test results.

 

apparently, here in Galicia, there were only 5 new cases confirmed today, but maybe we will never know how many there are. If China, which is the most advanced country in the world nowadays, even admitted that the number of deaths in Wuhan could be more than the number they reported... who knows if people will ever now the truth?

We have science at least. China and the USA seem to have a vaccine in the works, Spain has a candidate too, and there are antivirals.

 

too many information these days. After watching your video, he says that the lockdown doesnt do much. Lockdown worked very well in Italy -people in Italy are starting to relax a little, hope they dont get too confident- and Spain, deaths are record low now and new cases are decreasing. Maybe social distancing could work in Brazil and other countries, the incidence there is lower, but those measures alone dont do much...at least here. You touch many things in a day that others touched, that's one huge issue. Cold temperatures let the virus live on surfaces more time.

same story again, it's impossible to know the actual numbers.

 

https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanf...data-finds-low-fatality-rate-even-in-hotbeds/

[P]reliminary data show that deaths cluster in areas with high levels of poverty and underprivileged populations. If this early observation gets validated, this may signify that COVID-19 is yet another disease with a profile dependent on inequalities. Of interest, influenza deaths seem to have a similar difference in age distribution between the USA and European countries … Of course, a major difference between influenza and COVID-19 is that the latter does not cause deaths in children, in contrast to influenza.

 

Brazil is a poor country but the temperature is helping and the number of ICU is relatively high (22 per 100.000 people).
The temperature here is varying from 18 c to 26 c (64 F to 79 F).
Dr. Wong believe the country are much safer than the north hemisphere because of the temperature.

Take care you all.

 

He also mentioned that social distancing plays a huge factor. He is right.

However, keeping the physical distance is not the same in New York than in Bombay -India has 1,300.000.000 inhabitants-, nor say Bangladesh where many people are confined in the public transport.

take care and stay safe!

 

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

April 18, 2020 - 2,324 confirmed cases - 60 deaths

2,324 confirmed cases up 134 over yesterday and five new deaths
those 134 new cases represent a 6.1% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) over the last 23 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%,
10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%,
7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%, 4.0%,
6.0% and now 6.1%

Increases (by count) over the last 23 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100,
+90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108,
+105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109, +80,
+124 and now +134

 

A moderately interesting piece of information came out here in the UK today (moderately interesting to me, that is!), about the contact tracing carried out in the UK which was dropped during the second week of March:

In comparison South Korea apparently have up to 1,000 contact tracers working at a given time. China reportedly put 90,000 people into Hubei province (population around 10 million lower than the UK) to quash the initial outbreak. It's almost as though our government just couldn't be bothered to make a proper attempt at the job!

Doesn't fill me with confidence as to how we'll be exiting the lockdown in due course.

 

My daughter is studying in UK.
Take care!

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-on-trials-of-controversial-coronavirus-drug

And time is running...

 

Newer numbers compared to yesterday, it's not a good sign for having accurate picture of what's going on. Not good for Tai...

Ohio has 78,758 (up from 77,677) tests and 6,765 (up from 6,672) tests per 1M population -- from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The test numbers are odd considering increase of cases is 1,115 but tests only increased by 1,081. So every test they did was a positive result even considering additional CDC Expanded numbers added.

 

And like that, new numbers with more test, that makes more sense than the earlier numbers which must have been partial numbers?

Ohio has 83,131 (up from 77,677) tests and 7,141 (up from 6,672) tests per 1M population -- from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

But the deaths are very regional in some of these places. It took a long time for the Chinese to figure out what's happening, it started in Wuhan and spread to the world from there, but in China outside of Wuhan, not much happening, also in Italy the damage has spread, but is heavily focused in the Lombardi area. If it has spread everywhere the death rates should be similar per population across other cities as well.

 

And this is rather decisive. Jokes aside there is no reason to believe the virus cares if you live in NYC or in Boston. Similar spread should result in similar death rates, ergo => spreads are not similar.
The Diamond Princess is one of the few (only?) place where we know the virus spread over most of the people present, and even if the conditions were atypical (in positive AND negative ways) should give ballpark rates for many variables.

This is a huge problem nationally and internationally. One area may be on a downward slope in terms of infection, whereas anotther is starting to rise. National coordination of lockdown efforts becomes very difficult and wasteful. (Staggered school semesters doesn’t really work out if higher education still starts at a given date and so on. Production and distribution is spread out, meaning that hitches in component supply inhibit production regardless of assembly site is fully operational.)

We know that there are infected that are asymptomatic but we don’t know how many there are, nor how infectious. We don’t even know if they are immune. The data that would make the information useful is lacking.

But both the data from The Diamond Princess, and readily observable differences between areas suggest that the number of ”dark” carriers is not as high as is suggested by some.

New York is getting to an interesting degree of sampling. 3% of the population has been tested, 1,2% infected of the total population (symptomatic preference in testing, obviously), and so far a total death rate over the population of 0.1%. Extrapolation is difficult, but some of the theories tossed out by random youtubers are inconsistent even with this very early data.

The pressure to ”get things back to normal” is immense.