Its still early, we are just emerging from holiday silly season, and people are I think being way premature with predictions of utter doom.
Price I agree is a factor. But that's really more important for the marathon than the out of the gates sprint we are in.
Keep in mind, ps4 and xb1 are for practical purposes and as far as the average consumer is concerned equal in terms of power and graphics. All multiplat games will look nearly identical on both, close enough to be a nonfactor for the public, and exclusives will look great for both.
So at the same price, the choice would be ps4 or ~ps4 + kinect. With essentially parity in graphics, kinect can be a nice tiebreaker instead of the burden some see it as at the higher price.
Keys for MS are working on shrinks etc to help quickly reach price parity with ps4 and maintain that for the life of the console (keeping kinect); and also focusing on games. Games games games (and I think games and apps that make kinect indispensable for a lot of people).