It's doubtful. The market has pretty much grown with each successive generation with more consoles being sold. Tablets and phones may end up stealing a few gamers, but let's not forget that a person is able to be a consumer of more than one product so they may end up purchasing both. The current gen has lasted unnaturally long so diminished sales are to be completely expected. We will be able to make far better guesses at the future of the console industry once we get sales numbers of the new machines. They're not even out yet, so it is a bit premature to call a demise of consoles.
Business Approach Comparison Sony PS4 and Microsoft Xbox
- Thread starter BRiT
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It's doubtful. The market has pretty much grown with each successive generation with more consoles being sold. Tablets and phones may end up stealing a few gamers, but let's not forget that a person is able to be a consumer of more than one product so they may end up purchasing both. The current gen has lasted unnaturally long so diminished sales are to be completely expected. We will be able to make far better guesses at the future of the console industry once we get sales numbers of the new machines. They're not even out yet, so it is a bit premature to call a demise of consoles.
I still think a lot of people are forgetting its other featurs like the nfl support on it. Its already being advertised on football games and i'm already getting my casual gaming friends asking me about the xbox one and what it does. There are going to be a ton of people buying the xbox one even at $500. I know people who bought wii's at $250 just for wii sports and 3 or 4 other party games , I know people who bought xbox 360s with Kinect and I have a cousin who bought a ps3 for the wonderbook stuff .
I fully agree, the current business model is not going to last.
However, consoles will not die, they will just change the business model.
Imagine you can get XBone/PS4 for 100$ downpayment tied with a 2years 30$/month subscription á la PS+ where you could play any and all games that are released for that platform without any other cost for individual games.
I think the blogger is saying the sales decay of the consoles is becoming steeper and steeper with each successive gaming system.
The Wii and the PS3 (depending on how you look at it) are the last successful dedicated gaming devices. Everything that has launched since has underperformed.
Is it a coincidence that during the same time, people are spending hundreds (or even thousands with service plans) per household on mobile devices?
The Wii and the PS3 (depending on how you look at it) are the last successful dedicated gaming devices. Everything that has launched since has underperformed.
Is it a coincidence that during the same time, people are spending hundreds (or even thousands with service plans) per household on mobile devices?
So he's basing his theory on a sample size of 1? The WiiU.
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That is what the analysis is showing; console gaming is becoming less a mass market and more and more niche - based on the raw data of shipments (where available) shows.
There are more and more gamers than ever, but many are content with the level of gaming offered by their phone, tablet or web browser. If shipments and underlying profits from an ecosystem drop below a critical [profit] mass for Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, one or more of them may decide to exit the market.
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No, he's basing his analysis based on Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony console shipments over the past 10 years.
well then he should probably go back to school and retake math.
I agree, but he should retake logic instead of math.
This chart that he posted would have made sense if it captured 2 console cycles and if the second cycle had significantly less volume than the first.
Showing that we had a sales peak at 2007~2008 (where we had 3 console launches within 1 year) and trailing off until 2013 hardly suggests that the console market is dying.
However it does show how vulnerable the Wii was to sliding sales compared to Microsoft or Sony.
This chart that he posted would have made sense if it captured 2 console cycles and if the second cycle had significantly less volume than the first.
Showing that we had a sales peak at 2007~2008 (where we had 3 console launches within 1 year) and trailing off until 2013 hardly suggests that the console market is dying.
However it does show how vulnerable the Wii was to sliding sales compared to Microsoft or Sony.
The wii u is failing in my opinion because it does nothing well except to play a few games .
Its not better than a PS 3 or a XBOX 360 for that although it does have exclusive games from Nintendo and few from other third parties .its online is inferior to its rivals .
All in all its a bog standard games machine in the public s eye with a tablet control only of any real use tied to the machine .by that I mean not a stand alone tablet that can be used on the way to work .
That's why its sales have declined big time after launch it offers nothing compelling enough to attract anyone other than a core gamer to the general buying public its just a gaming machine it has no buzz about it like the wii had to drive sales post launch .
This is a trap Microsoft or Sony could easliy fall into post launch the real test for both companies is post launch buzz.
Now kinect ...dedicated severs for on line games .....smart glass ....TV integration ....NFL fantasy football in the good old USA .
All these things will crate a buzz about your product far more than pretty pictures on the screen after launch .
The real test for both companies is not who has the slightly better looking mutiplaform games only fan boys warriors really care about that its who has the more compelling user experience .
To win that war you have to offer a large selection of experiences as that's what the public expects in the post smart phone and tablet market both these products offer a large variety of experience .
Price of these devices don't really matter to the public because there multi functional devices offering a lot of different experiences .
The day of the good old games console is over in my books the wii u and Sony's vita sales prove that as the public see them as only offering a limited function of only playing games .
Microsoft in my opinion seem better placed to offer a multi functional machine the Xbox one seems designed around this at its core .so in my opinion could capture the public's imagination better than Sony .
If they do I expect to see wii like sales from Microsoft as the public choose the multi functional device like they do when buying there tablets and smart phones .
No one really wants a computer you can't take with you hence the rise of the tablet no one wants a phone that only allows you to ring people hence the rise of the smart phone .
The public expects more than one or two functions they expect a multi functional device because that's what they have got used to .
Its not better than a PS 3 or a XBOX 360 for that although it does have exclusive games from Nintendo and few from other third parties .its online is inferior to its rivals .
All in all its a bog standard games machine in the public s eye with a tablet control only of any real use tied to the machine .by that I mean not a stand alone tablet that can be used on the way to work .
That's why its sales have declined big time after launch it offers nothing compelling enough to attract anyone other than a core gamer to the general buying public its just a gaming machine it has no buzz about it like the wii had to drive sales post launch .
This is a trap Microsoft or Sony could easliy fall into post launch the real test for both companies is post launch buzz.
Now kinect ...dedicated severs for on line games .....smart glass ....TV integration ....NFL fantasy football in the good old USA .
All these things will crate a buzz about your product far more than pretty pictures on the screen after launch .
The real test for both companies is not who has the slightly better looking mutiplaform games only fan boys warriors really care about that its who has the more compelling user experience .
To win that war you have to offer a large selection of experiences as that's what the public expects in the post smart phone and tablet market both these products offer a large variety of experience .
Price of these devices don't really matter to the public because there multi functional devices offering a lot of different experiences .
The day of the good old games console is over in my books the wii u and Sony's vita sales prove that as the public see them as only offering a limited function of only playing games .
Microsoft in my opinion seem better placed to offer a multi functional machine the Xbox one seems designed around this at its core .so in my opinion could capture the public's imagination better than Sony .
If they do I expect to see wii like sales from Microsoft as the public choose the multi functional device like they do when buying there tablets and smart phones .
No one really wants a computer you can't take with you hence the rise of the tablet no one wants a phone that only allows you to ring people hence the rise of the smart phone .
The public expects more than one or two functions they expect a multi functional device because that's what they have got used to .
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One other thing is - you cannot look just at sales. For consoles there is a cummulative effect, since consoles sold two years ago STILL exists and are functional. My guess is the TOTAL nr of active consoles is the thing to be monitored.
You simply cannot say the market is going down when there are more consoles in existance than ever! And we need to remember - consoles are just a "facilitator" product that allow you to play games (and do other stuff more recently).
In the end it's the games that matter, and what would be the best business model for people to play them and for the industry to earn money for making them.
You simply cannot say the market is going down when there are more consoles in existance than ever! And we need to remember - consoles are just a "facilitator" product that allow you to play games (and do other stuff more recently).
In the end it's the games that matter, and what would be the best business model for people to play them and for the industry to earn money for making them.
With a $500 price tag I don't think we will see any Wii like sales anytime soon...
Price does not really effect the preformance of a compelling product if it did how is it possible for the original ipad on release to out sell any other electric product setting sales records in the process .
If the public see value in your offering price doesn't matter i'd argue the wii would have sold at ipad prices it did for a while on eBay .
Price does not really effect the preformance of a compelling product if it did how is it possible for the original ipad on release to out sell any other electric product setting sales records in the process .
If the public see value in your offering price doesn't matter i'd argue the wii would have sold at ipad prices it did for a while on eBay .
How is that working out for Apple now? The tablet market is shifting, consumers are buying competing products more and more and Apple is taking a less aggressive margin on their hardware. The analogy to the video game market IMO is poor due to tablets being relatively new at the time of the original Ipad whereas home consoles is a pretty mature market with 3 competitors who seem to take turns dominating the market each cycle not to mention that tablets, smart phones and the arrival of cheap set top boxes from Google, Apple and Sony will put even more pressure on price.
Price matters, the type of services bundled with into the ecosystem matter, library of games matters to put it plainly its a tough business.
Correct apple did it first people saw value in there vision just like Nintendo with the wii and brought there product by the bucket load .
Forcing rivals to release competing products match in the case of apple to match there vision experience for experience at a cheaper price to gain market share .
This is a two horse race Sony are not matching kinect in the box nor are they matching HDMI in ......it remains to see if they will match Microsoft experience for experience my guess is because there missing things like smart glass kinect HDMI in they can't .
All they can match is big game for big game as most games will be on both platforms .
If Microsoft's over all experience seems like the better option to the public Sony will be out sold .Microsoft vision is different from Sony they see there console as sitting alone side the families other entertainment devices interacting with and controlling them .
If this vision is a hit with the public as its a new route for a console to take it maybe as big a hit as the only other console that tried something new do you remember that console it was called the wii and the gaming press hated that and look how that turned out it saved Nintendo broke console sales records as well doing it .
Correct apple did it first people saw value in there vision just like Nintendo with the wii and brought there product by the bucket load .
Forcing rivals to release competing products match in the case of apple to match there vision experience for experience at a cheaper price to gain market share .
This is a two horse race Sony are not matching kinect in the box nor are they matching HDMI in ......it remains to see if they will match Microsoft experience for experience my guess is because there missing things like smart glass kinect HDMI in they can't .
All they can match is big game for big game as most games will be on both platforms .
If Microsoft's over all experience seems like the better option to the public Sony will be out sold .Microsoft vision is different from Sony they see there console as sitting alone side the families other entertainment devices interacting with and controlling them .
If this vision is a hit with the public as its a new route for a console to take it maybe as big a hit as the only other console that tried something new do you remember that console it was called the wii and the gaming press hated that and look how that turned out it saved Nintendo broke console sales records as well doing it .
We'll have to see how important these new features and services are to the public. Personally I'm not all that impressed by running my cable/satellite feed thru my console just so I can use voice controls or use gestures to change channels/volume especially if it cost extra monthly to be able to access this functionality. From my point of view the remote is the best and simplest solution to controlling my TV however I do understand that for some that is a really exciting feature and think the wow factor might attract interest to XB1. Again the issue is at what price....
In terms of services both machines will have voice controls, we just don't know how robust Sony's offering will be and if PS Eye will be required to access it. Motion controls out of the box definitely will appeal to some and that certainly is a plus for XB1 but again we'll need to see how big of a draw that actually is as well as how well it's actually supported.
Ironically IPTV which in my opinion is the most important services that either ecosystem could offer at this point is a draw if not slightly favoring Sony based off what we are hearing in the news. And unfortunately for both Sony and MS there are cheaper offerings that are competing with both platforms for that segment of the market and with both Google and Apple standardizing the controller specifications its only a matter of time before we see games, movies and possibly TV content available for less money.
I also find it interesting (even if it's somewhat anecdotal) that if I poll friends and family with Android or IPhone about the VR features most don't even know it exist or how to use it. Dictation services have been available for a longtime on the PC too but have never really taken off for a variety of reasons and I personally I am not convinced VR will end up being all that important. I do think XB1's ability to run apps across their ecosystem will in the long run be an advantage and I can't really see how PS4 gets proper support for much beyond indie games, some video and streaming services. The question for me is how important that ends up being.
Again my point is that providing a variety of services that the public is interested in at a competitive price is really going to be important as the market is now flooded with a variety of options all competing for a fix amount of discretionary income.
It says Apple on the box.
When you have a semi-religious cult following that will buy iEverything you produce, it will of course sell. On top of that you have those that want to show how trendy and design conscious they are to the rest of their hipster friends. You won't get too many hipster points having a geeky console under your TV vs a trendy accessory on your coffee table.
If the public see value in your offering price doesn't matter i'd argue the wii would have sold at ipad prices it did for a while on eBay .
Exactly, for a while. Sure you have those that have to have it no matter what, or they are desperate to get it for their kids Christmas/birthday celebration or whatever. That is though I would think a fairly small group and something that can occur under a limited time, nothing you can count to carry over a whole console generation. Furthermore, I would think that for most non gamers, a tablet would offer overall more value than a console, after all you can't carry your console around looking cool taking notes or whatever...
It's preposterous to think the many millions of iPad buyers are Apple fanboy cultists. It's not Macs sell in the same vast quantities. iPad was the right product at the right time with consumer appeal, which established it as the brand favourite through conventional market forces. It's now established such a strong software ecosystem that there aren't comparable products - an Android tablet isn't a direct competitor. And having the leading brand in the market place, Apple can afford to charge a premium (something they have done before with their brand because a higher price allows for a premium product identity which helps with profit margins, only regards the iPhone and iPad, Apple also achieved mass consumer sales).
Not sure if you disagree but the premium product identity comes from an actual premium product. For all the hyperbole with their marketing, they have built a brand which allows them the pricing freedom to build products with less (or none, if you believe Tim and Jony) compromises (and higher prices to accommodate that.)
Sent from my iPad
Yes, that's true. It's a brand earnt, similar to what Sony's used to be in its heyday. The Apple brand also isn't a guarantee of success, as evidenced by the Pippin, or years and years of the Mac being a niche computer. You have to have the right product at the right price and back it properly, which requires great business sense and a bit of luck too.
One of the problems the MS brand has is decades of (small) highs and lows in the OS space which everyone has experience of. Everyone has experience of the BSOD on some flavour of Windows, and the fear of losing work from crashes, while there's not a great of deal highly positive reaction to the latest MS creation from the mainstream. When was the last time you encountered someone with a new PC who excitedly pointed to an OS feature in the latest Windows iteration? I can say Windows 7 is good, but it hardly excites me or leads me to follow MS's work with interest. MS's success in getting everywhere also brings a lot of baggage regards the brand. Separating their brands might be important to branching out and reaching a new consumer mindshare. That seems to be something 'XBox' has done.
One of the problems the MS brand has is decades of (small) highs and lows in the OS space which everyone has experience of. Everyone has experience of the BSOD on some flavour of Windows, and the fear of losing work from crashes, while there's not a great of deal highly positive reaction to the latest MS creation from the mainstream. When was the last time you encountered someone with a new PC who excitedly pointed to an OS feature in the latest Windows iteration? I can say Windows 7 is good, but it hardly excites me or leads me to follow MS's work with interest. MS's success in getting everywhere also brings a lot of baggage regards the brand. Separating their brands might be important to branching out and reaching a new consumer mindshare. That seems to be something 'XBox' has done.
