Phil said:
Just saw this post and had to reply:
Hum, I don't see this happening. Sony has always been the one to market their console as a
computer entertainment system - not a game console. With CELL leading into the next generation of Sony products and linking them up all together, I would think that they would want to get a large userbase quick with PS3. Just think about the potential sales if Sony gets 20 million PS3s out and attracts them all with further CELL connectivity if they buy the other Sony CELL products. If you split the market with two PS3 versions, you're loosing valuable sales right there.
Well, they're not going to lose CELL capability no matter which PS3 they offer. I also see them bringing around CELL-enabled stand-alone devices (DVD players, Blu-Ray players, TVs, HDTVs, et al) running the price gamut to target those who specifically want or only need one thing. (Who may well later want ANOTHER thing later on, especially if they make the most of CELL interactivity.)
If anything, I see Sony forcing blu-ray and all those entertainment features within PS3 to consumers in hope to attract them more to their 'other' products. Vice versa, you will have the other Sony products attract people into buying PS3 too.
I can certainly see that as well, but it all depends on the price point, or how much they're willing to lose on the PS3. If, after they suck down as much loss as they're willing to in the beginning, they still have to price the PS3 at $500+, they may decide that they just can't appeal to the core GAMER market that high. (Fanatical ones, sure. They buy $500 GPUs on the PC, too. But they're not the meat and potatoes.) If the Blu-Ray player is a large factor in that extra cost, they may opt to leave it out.
Also, you won't have all TOO many people being drawn down from other Sony products to a PS3 if the PS3 is fairly expensive and they already have all the other features it supports. (Say, they already bought a stand-alone Blu-Ray player.) If they'd be overlapping functionality they already have and only getting the game-playing ability, a higher price point will only be a discouragement for that sort.
Sony IS, of course, a company that could very well change the market attitude toward console price, but what with it launching right near (or somewhat after) the Xbox2 and GC2, if they are substantially less, Sony could lose even more ground in the gaming sector by keeping the PS3 priced too high.
...which is one reason I've thought the PS3 would launch with multiple versions. Even before they announced the PSX there were rumors of such, and WITH the launch of the PSX it seems they may be using that as a testing ground to see what they can get away with. With enough capabilities in the PS3 and proper software support and they COULD well steal people from the PC sector, but can they aspire to that AND appeal to the mass market of gamers at the same time? I figure "no" unless they're willing to suck up a ton of loss. If a console is priced halfway in-between it becomes a bit of a half-assed attempt at both, meanwhile the further it goes up, the further they get away from gamers, and the further it goes down the more loss they'll have to absorb. Dual options for the PS3, meanwhile, could let them get the best of both worlds, perhaps making them the cheapest (AND fastest?) pure console at the low end, and letting them offer a powerful and variable device for the upper end--all without forcing them to absorb a lot of cost. Gamers are happy because they don't see themselves having to pay more for extras they don't really care about, and those who want and can afford a high-quality machine could end up getting more than they thought they would. More options usually makes for a win-win situation all around. (It just adds some more development time and complicates the manufacturing process.)
Whether they will choose to do so, however, depends on many other aspects. As you say, they may want to use the PS3 bring about broadscale acceptance and adoption of Blu-Ray standard, at which point it would be in PS3 no matter HOW many versions they make. The only real deterring factor at that point becomes price, as heavy losses would make even determined corporations sit back and think a little.
Another factor in its favor is that a pure console could probably get by on Blu-Ray without needing any hard drive at all, whch would eliminate that expense (not to mention the space it would take up, the extra noise and heat, the additional part that can have issues...) entirely. Games would have their own scratch space right on the media, and I'm pretty sure it would take a LOOOOOOONG time for any came to take up all the space on a Blu-Ray all by itself.
One might even be able to use a functional version of Linux directly off a disk (though few would probably want to because of slower read/write time). Anything the PS3 would need for itself could be handled easily through Memory Stick (or whatever solid storage they end up using--I'm assuming they'll move to MS)
However, to function as a higher-grade PVR, they would likely still want to keep in a high capacity hard drive, because although they could enable it with just the Blu-Ray, they would gain more abilities and not have to deal with incessant disk-swapping. (One major reason, I would assume, that people want PVRs over VCRs to begin with.) To be a useful multi-media central storage device and any sort of PC replacement they'd also want a capable HD backing them up, as Blu-Ray doesn't have enough storage to handle it all and becomes an inconvenience the more people use it. ("Let's see, which disk has the pictures of my grandfather in it again...? No, this one has Susie's ballet recital and our trip to Boise..." Heh.)
I have trouble thinking they'll get a solid all-in-one device out without pricing too high for many gamers, which makes me think the "multiple model" PS3 is very much still in their minds. The final determination will come down to price--what they WANT to do and what they can afford to put in it. As with the PS2/PSX, it seems like that to make a GOOD all-in-one device and capable PC replacement they'd need to make two devices anyhow, at which point they might as well make the lowest cost, steamlined GAMING machine that they can. If Blu-Ray would have to be excised to bring that about, well then it just might be. The does not mean both versions will be available at launch, nor does it mean the console-specific PS3 couldn't gain Blu-Ray at a later date. Sony's shown much fierceness and capability in redesigning and upgrading, and I wouldn't expect that to lessen.
Of course ALL of this is lots of conjecture, and the final form of the PS3(s?) will likely take a lot of cues from the performance of the PSX and the adoption of Blu-Ray between now and 2005. We'll just have see... ^_^ I AM sure, however, that they're keeping their options open and that this is one avenue they may well take.
