Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray only for expanded rental availablity

[Mintmaster]

It's been obvious since the beginning to me that BluRay would win. Let's run down the advantages:

1) more DRM (studios likey)
2) Major proponent (Sony) owns huge volumes of exclusive content that people want
3) Major proponent launching trojan horse subsidized BD player by the millions (PS3)

I used to think that #3 would be a huge factor at first and then die down in relevance (after all nobody uses a PS2 as a DVD player), but even the initial impact is turning out to be muted.

A few months ago HD-DVD players were around 200,000 in sales, though recently I heard a claim of only 150,000 units. PS3 has shipped 5.5M units. A mere 2:1 advantage in disc sales, however, points to an attach ratio that's enormously different. HD-DVD can easily quadruple its userbase at the end of the year. It'll be near impossible for PS3 to double it's sales by then, and there's little sign that BluRay standalones will put up much of a fight this year.

That article you pointed to is putting too much emphasis on early sales. They mean nothing because the volume is pathetic right now. It's future trends that are most important. It's abundantly clear to me now that standalone player sales will determine the winner, and HD-DVD is looking very solid on that front.

I'll agree that it's more likely that HD-DVD will fail instead of BD, but I don't see the war being decided within a year.

 

[DemoCoder]

Sure, but discarding perfectly fine items is a bit different, no?

I guess some people have hoarder personalities. I discard perfectly fine items that fall into disuse, like clothes, old electronics, old media. If I've got 500 BD movies, and 50 HD movies, with an HD-DVD player taking up space and collecting dust, I'm likely to box it. HD-DVD at this point is a bad investment, a dead end, since in the future, it's going to have paultry content available for it. There was a time when Beta and VHS coexisted on shelves, and studios still released Beta tapes, and then gradually over time, Beta fizzled out. Would you have recommended to someone during the downfall of Beta that they buy a Beta player?

I suppose its possible that you have a cramped cabinet and want to free up the room, but if you have room for the Blu-ray and the HD-DVD player now, I don't see how that changes when one format fails. Obviously in the extremely long run if there is no media for the unit it might make sense to ditch it, but my VCR has sat under my TV for the last 5 years without being used (you never know when you'll need it ).

My VCR got replaced as soon as I got a Tivo. There is not a single VCR in my house (nor CRT for that matter), nor any VHS tapes left. I mean, the idea of hooking up a VCR to a 60" HD set is absurd.

My cabinet has: Xbox360, PS3, Wii, HTPC, Ultra2 receiver, iScan scaler, HDMI->ethernet converter. An HD-DVD X360 drive or standalone player would be stupid. I already got rid of my upscaling DVD player once I put the next-gen consoles in there.

Well you could be waiting a long time for the Matrix, and its pretty foolish to throw anything like a DVD away when you can often get a significant amount of money reselling, and likely that will hold for at least 10 years.

The amount of money I can get reselling (assuming I held onto the original cases) is about the same as the tax writeoff I can get by donating them, and it's far less hassle to drop off 100 DVDs in non-original cases at a thrift store than to spend time eBaying them.

Anyway, the Matrix is scheduled to come out on BluRay this fall, unlike say, SpiderMan 1/2/3 which will never exist on HD-DVD along with every other Sony Pictures title (quite a large library), not to mention that Fox and Disney are essentially BD exclusive now. The writing is on the wall. HD-DVD = Universal Studios Disc Format. But cognitive dissonance lives on.

So you actually waited until it tanked? Shouldn't you have tossed it right after you bought it when it was clear early on that it would fail? Certainly more clear than hd-dvd V BR is now.

I boxed it a few months after completing Shen Mue, and then donated it to charity prior to end of tax year. But one thing I didn't do is *buy more games*

 

[Geo]

I mean, the idea of hooking up a VCR to a 60" HD set is absurd.

Well, I don't know that the *idea* is. The idea is probably natural when you upgrade from that 27" for the first time. The reality tho. . . probably quite a few people who've done it for the very short term. As I recall, we swore off VHS that first week of a CRT 55" in 2002 (I think; might have been 2001). . and we didn't even have a Tivo (actually, it turned out to be a ReplayTV) yet!

 

[Random Digital]

Trying to talk the wife into a BDP-S300 right now.

Good luck to you. I was talking to my wife about the deal at Best But. 40" Sony LCD + PS3 60GB + Blu-ray movie + PS3 game = $2089

I was not able to make a convincing argument.

 

[macabre]

Leave her. You know you want it. It`s just a woman

 

[Geo]

Good luck to you. I was talking to my wife about the deal at Best But. 40" Sony LCD + PS3 60GB + Blu-ray movie + PS3 game = $2089

I was not able to make a convincing argument.

Happily, I only have to win a $499 argument. We already have a 62" HDTV ("only" 720p tho, alas).

 

[patsu]

Good luck to you. I was talking to my wife about the deal at Best But. 40" Sony LCD + PS3 60GB + Blu-ray movie + PS3 game = $2089

I was not able to make a convincing argument.

I usually say, "It's for work. I need to have an intuitive feel about technologies and hi-tech marketing to maintain my edge.". Lame yes, but it worked. You can laugh at me, I don't care...

Then I compiled some open source stuff in PS3 Linux. Also taught her how to set up DLNA + RemotePlay so that I can see new family photos and videos (of our kid) when I'm on business trip.

Q.E.D.

 

[Zaphod]

Well to be fair, that isn't entirely true. I have seen HD-DVD's in two shops now. In one major chain it was dwarfed by BluRay, but in another major chain it was fairly equally matched.

Another reason for this (little HD-DVD in shops) would be that HD-DVD is region free. I'd venture to guess that early adopter HD-DVD buyers are much more likely to be getting their media on-line (from overseas) than the PS3 owners looking to try out that Blu-ray-thingy. Ironically, one of the best features of HD-DVD form the perspective of an European customer (at least those of us who don't care for localization) could be hurting its viability in the mainstream market.

 

[Random Digital]

Happily, I only have to win a $499 argument. We already have a 62" HDTV ("only" 720p tho, alas).

Yeah, I think I am going to wait. I'm betting this stuff will be even cheaper around Xmas. I could also beg for it as a present or something.

 

[SPM]

I think you're the one failing to pay attention.

HD-DVD player sales are a few hundred thousand, not a million yet. Sony claims to have shipped 5.5M PS3s, but lets say 3-4M are sold. Also, the split was 70/30 in the first quarter, but now is around 60/40. Now, how is that good news when you have over a 10:1 advantage in hardware penetration?

The whole point of my post is that a standalone sale is waaaaay more valuable than a PS3 sale.

That is good news (depending on your perspective) because those 90% who have a BD player but aren't buying the movies just have to do is go out and rent or buy a BD movie (and most will do it once they have got their TVs sorted out, and HD movies are more commonly available) . To catch up the HD-DVD industry will have to persuade new users to go out and buy an HD-DVD player first - a much more costly exercise. Also, unlike the average PS3 user, HD-DVD's existing users are AV enthusiasts and having spent a lot of money on equipments are spending more on movies now than they would normally do, and more than the average Joe Average would - ie. their attach ratio is saturated, won't increase, and may actually drop.

 

[Maintank]

That is good news (depending on your perspective) because those 90% who have a BD player but aren't buying the movies just have to do is go out and rent or buy a BD movie (and most will do it once they have got their TVs sorted out, and HD movies are more commonly available) . To catch up the HD-DVD industry will have to persuade new users to go out and buy an HD-DVD player first - a much more costly exercise. Also, unlike the average PS3 user, HD-DVD's existing users are AV enthusiasts and having spent a lot of money on equipments are spending more on movies now than they would normally do, and more than the average Joe Average would - ie. their attach ratio is saturated, won't increase, and may actually drop.

What you are expecting people to do is use their PS3 as the BluRay player. I dont believe the PS2 had a real big DVD attachment rate. So to think the PS3 will be much different is a leap.

I can tell you I got a PS2 within a ~ month of release and tried to use it as a DVD player. What happened was I went and bought a 150 dollar stand alone player that I use to this day while my PS2 collected dust in a closet.

Stand alone players will determine this war, not a gaming conoles trying to do it all.

I also believe that if these PS3 owners were going to have a high attachment rate they would have by now. It isnt something they are going to wake up one morning and start buying lots and lots of BluRay movies just for the sake of buying them.

 

[Geo]

From what I can see the really hardcore AV types are just buying both, so they're a wash from a hardware sales pov, but attach rate for them is probably going to lean in the direction of most available content, which favors B-r.

 

[Arwin]

Another reason for this (little HD-DVD in shops) would be that HD-DVD is region free. I'd venture to guess that early adopter HD-DVD buyers are much more likely to be getting their media on-line (from overseas) than the PS3 owners looking to try out that Blu-ray-thingy. Ironically, one of the best features of HD-DVD form the perspective of an European customer (at least those of us who don't care for localization) could be hurting its viability in the mainstream market.

If you say so ... but then what is the U.S. version of Planet Earth doing in my PAL PS3? Oh wait ...

 

[Zaphod]

If you say so ...

Actually, I didn't. I said I'd guess that it were so. Quite the difference.

but then what is the U.S. version of Planet Earth doing in my PAL PS3? Oh wait ...

Tell me, did you check it out and make sure it was not region encoded before you bought it because you knew the system to be in effect on several Blu-ray releases? If so, you don't meet my criteria for 'mainstream' with regards to media purchasing habits. Besides, a single anecdote does not data make...

Surely you won't deny that being region free by design would be one of HD-DVDs strong points among enthusiasts in the 'PAL regions' that still to this day often get shafted with inferior releases. Or, do you think that Blu-ray releases without the region lock will stay around for long were HD-DVD to pack up shop and call it a day?

 

[Pete]

I think this DigitalBits editorial makes the case quite well: http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/soapbox/soap060107.html

OK, so I can see how BD's greater capacity will perhaps inevitably trump HD-DVD--particularly in typical multi-disc set territory (be it special editions or just a TV series)--but is it still true that HD-DVD offers a much better experience WRT director's commentary video overlays and that sort of semi-interactive viewing? Or has Blu-Ray caught up in this regard?

I suppose this sort of thing is still secondary, that most people still want to just see the movie in HD and move on, but it does strike me as a high-end feature that, if it's still a differentiator, HD-DVD should be shouting from the hills (especially since BD's capacity isn't yet a selling point, as we probably won't see TV series in HD disc formats for a while, most dual-format releases seem to use the same encode, and I haven't heard of a BD release cramming more extras onto a single disc than HD-DVD--though I haven't paid attention to audio at all).

 

[patsu]

Fox Announces 22 Titles for France

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=274

Good news that Fox is finally saying something again (So perhaps they were really waiting for BD+). Now... what about us ?

 

[Zaphod]

as we probably won't see TV series in HD disc formats for a while

[strike]Blue Planet[/strike] Planet Earth (with Blue Planet to follow) doesn't qualify? 'Trial balloons' are also up with Sopranos on both formats, Smallville on HD-DVD, and Rescue Me on Blu-Ray (with Weeds coming soon as well). Other than that, Heroes is likely to be the next (some would say first) major TV release on either format (HD-DVD, August 28).

 

[Pete]

Well, I consider documentaries a little different than most TV series, but I'll accept Planet Earth (one would expect Blue Planet to follow if PE does well enough). But the HD-DVD and BD versions seem to be the same numbers of discs and minutes of content; same with The Sopranos. Same encode for each set?

Ah, both of Planet Earth's formats seem to be identical. It seems the BD Sopranos offers uncompressed PCM 5.1, while the HD-DVD version is only DD+ 5.1. Otherwise, video and extras appear to be the same.

 

[patsu]

OK, so I can see how BD's greater capacity will perhaps inevitably trump HD-DVD--particularly in typical multi-disc set territory (be it special editions or just a TV series)--but is it still true that HD-DVD offers a much better experience WRT director's commentary video overlays and that sort of semi-interactive viewing? Or has Blu-Ray caught up in this regard?

I think they are still experimenting. This just in:
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/new...tle_Feature_with_Immortal_Beloved_Blu-ray/715

 

[crazygambit]

I used to think that #3 would be a huge factor at first and then die down in relevance (after all nobody uses a PS2 as a DVD player), but even the initial impact is turning out to be muted.

A few months ago HD-DVD players were around 200,000 in sales, though recently I heard a claim of only 150,000 units. PS3 has shipped 5.5M units. A mere 2:1 advantage in disc sales, however, points to an attach ratio that's enormously different. HD-DVD can easily quadruple its userbase at the end of the year. It'll be near impossible for PS3 to double it's sales by then, and there's little sign that BluRay standalones will put up much of a fight this year.

That article you pointed to is putting too much emphasis on early sales. They mean nothing because the volume is pathetic right now. It's future trends that are most important. It's abundantly clear to me now that standalone player sales will determine the winner, and HD-DVD is looking very solid on that front.

I'll agree that it's more likely that HD-DVD will fail instead of BD, but I don't see the war being decided within a year.

I'm not clear whether those 150,000 standalone HD-DVD players were sold worldwide or only in the US (and some quick googleing didn't help). If it's only in the US then the PS3 has only sold about 1.2 million there and I thought the advantage was 3:1 now. It's 2:1 LTD but the trending heavily favors Bluray, which implies that the effect of PS3 in Bluray sales is significant. Especially considering BD standalone players have sold far less that HD-DVD ones.


Edit: I forgot to add that they're not counting the 360 add-on in their sales. IIRC it's the highest selling HD-DVD player (but it's not standalone) which I think it's well over 150,000 in the US alone. So the attach BD attach ratio for PS3 is looking a lot better.