Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray only for expanded rental availablity

Discussion in 'PC Hardware, Software and Displays' started by homy, Jun 18, 2007.

  1. patsu

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  2. Ruined

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    BTW, here is Universal's & HD DVD's response:

    http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2007/06/21/hd_dvd_shrugs_off_blockbuster_move/1

    snippet:

     
  3. Mintmaster

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    PS3 had a bigger effect earlier in the year, probably because the hardware ratio was even higher then, and some PS3 owners may have bought a disc for the heck of it. The first quarter was nearly 3:1 in disc sales.

    Since then it's been closer. A couple weeks ago it was 60/40. Generally it's been less than 2:1. So no, the trending does not heavily favor BluRay.

    If you're right about this only talking about north america, this article states the opposite of your claim about the 360 add-on, saying they are counted but PS3's aren't. I still think there's around a 10:1 hardware advantage for PS3/BluRay vs. HD-DVD, whether it's 3M versus a few hundred thousand worldwide, or 1.x million versus 150,000 in North America. The attach ratio doesn't look very good at all for PS3.

    SPM, I don't buy your scenario. We're not going to see a high percentage of existing PS3 owners buy HDTV's and buy lots of discs before standalone player owners start dominating disc sales. For one thing, if they were planning on buying an HDTV soon, they would already be buying BluRay. It's just wishful thinking to think they'll suddenly explode as buyers.

    It's going to be like PS2 and DVD, except with far lower sales (from both the console and the standalones). The console just isn't going to have a very large impact on disc sales beyond the short term.

    Now, I'm not saying HD-DVD will win. Sony can still beat them in standalone sales this year because, well, it's Sony. Right now it doesn't look particularly likely, though.
     
  4. crazygambit

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    I was thinking of the numbers from this article, I just couldn't find it before.

    So the ratio is only 5:1 in favor of Blu-ray which means their attach rates were twice as good as you were saying :razz: If you substract the 100,000 standalones asuming similar buying patters between both camps you get: 1.4 million PS3 are comparable to 250,000 standalones (I count the 360 add-on as standalone since it's bought exclusively to play movies). That means that 5.6 PS3 buy as much as 1 standalone HD-DVD player. Even if PS3 sales continue at its snail pace it should still sell considerable more than 6 times what HD-DVD standalones can manage, plus with whatever standalones BD sells... I just see the gap widening and widening. Also your comparison with PS2 is highly flawed, since PS2 was an average player at best (crappy by most standards) whereas PS3 is top of the line and an AV enthusiast should, at least, give it some serious consideration.

    I really think you're underestimating the effect the PS3's troyan horse effect can have in the war. By the time the movies people are really waiting for come out what do you think is gonna happen? People with PS3s picking up a cheaper HD-DVD player or just using the machine they already have (and can muster enough quality) to watch them. Hell I've only bought one movie, because the ones I really want haven't been released yet. I imagine a lot of PS3 users feel the same. This is not even considering other regions like Japan where HD-DVD standalones sales are pretty much inexistent.
     
  5. Mintmaster

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    I was talking about worldwide, and I don't think HD-DVD standalones are doing well at all outside North America (though BluRay probably isn't much better). Sony said they shipped 5.5M PS3's, right? I don't think any of my numbers were unreasonable.

    Anyway, I don't think PS3 can get close to 5.6 times the sales of HD-DVD players in NA. Toshiba is estimating 1M players for the year, and PS3 is chugging along at 100k units a month. Even if we assume 2M PS3's this holiday season (and I think that's generous given the competition, especially this year in terms of price and games), it's going to fall far short.

    The gap is only going to widen if Sony can move a lot of standalones. If Sony is willing to lose $100M or so by subsidizing standalones, though, then I guess they can.
     
  6. Geo

    Geo Mostly Harmless
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    That's chump change in this war, given the long term implications and dollars involved. I don't know that they will do it, necessarily, but I think they'd be idiots not to if it's necessary. Sony is the one player in this "war" that really can't afford to just shrug their shoulders when it gets a little tough, say "oh well, we gave it a go", and then fold up their B-r tents.
     
  7. Pete

    Pete Moderate Nuisance
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    How about if Sony debuts their own "buy a Blu-Ray player and get five free BDs" promo--and a PS3 qualifies? :)

    They can't be losing too much on those titles, especially if you have to pay shipping, but it's not a bad nudge for the buyer on the brink.
     
  8. patsu

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  9. Geo

    Geo Mostly Harmless
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    Hmm. What is BD+? Will old players support it? If they don't, what does that mean? That they can't play the new BD+ titles from Fox?

    Regarding the 5 movie B-r promo, I looked at the list and the only thing I saw that I wanted to add to my permenent collection was Blazing Saddles. Everything else was either "seen it once, and once was enuf" or "not interested".
     
  10. patsu

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