Does this take 10 years though? Developers know on day 1* what kind of hardware they're dealing with. I haven't seen many advances in terms of visual fidelity over these past years, and there will be even less during the second half of the console cycle.
*actually much earlier than that, because release games begin their development way ahead of the console launch
Umm, for example, the X360 dev kits were supposedly X800 based, like half the power of the real thing.
Most titles at X360 launch looked like HD past gen games, notable exception being PGR3.
The difference between first gen X360 software and say, Uncharted 2, Crysis 2, Bulletstorm, is staggering.
I still remember the various "tiers", the first game to really impress people as "next gen" on 360 was in spring 2006, it was GRAW...a poor looking title today. Then people were blown away in fall 2006 by Gears of War, obviously the best looking console game yet, easily surpassed today. Gears probably really was the first game imo to look "next gen". I dont think IIRC Heavenly Sword or Motorstorm had come out on PS3 yet. Killzone 2 imo was the next title that really pushed things in a big way.
I think to me the biggest evidence yet the gen is becoming "tapped" is the fact Killzone 3 and Uncharted 3 look mostly similar to their groundbreaking predecessors imo, with only relatively minor incremental improvements. Especially since PS3 had been the console that was really pushing the envelope with KZ2 and UC2 as standard bearers.
I think Crysis 2 is pushing things maybe even a little farther, maybe it can join the likes of gears 1 and killzone 2 as big generation graphical touchstones, we'll see when it comes out. But I dont think it's just a massive leap over the, killzones, in a way.
But still, compare C2 to what was on 360 at launch, and I cant even imagine how much my back then-mind would have been boggled, lol. Because I still remember Gears 1 graphics just blowing my mind. I still remember Neogaf and myself gawking at Rainbow Six Vegas and the likes of Kane and Lynch, again all average looking today. The first Assassins Creed real time gameplay was similarly amazing. Again would be nothing today. Hell, Modern Warfare 2 initially traded on graphics appeal, I remember breathlessly posting about it here, remember those first "photorealistic" Game Informer scans? And I remember Neogaf saying IW must have made a deal with the devil to get it looking so great at 60 FPS...now COD titles look darn rough for the most part to me.
So yeah, I do see signs of things becoming tapped, to make a long story short. I dont see the big leaps anymore, just smaller ones. I look at Crysis 2 where they're pushing everything to 11, and see a lot of limitations, especially in RAM, even as imo it's the best looking now gen title yet. We're still seeing incremental improvements but certain RAM related areas seem like a dead end. Battlefield 3 is another example of a game that looks like it will push things a little bit, incrementally, yet the background buildings still scream of low RAM.
It's hard to say what the future holds though. I remember some football game on the SNES, towards the end, really being like the first game with huge players. You still might see some sort of groundbreaking graphics on this gen, but it would likely be in some unforseen, limited style. If you could limit things enough in scope, you might be able to really do some things.