Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[TheLump]

My answers in bold.

I don't understand. You said: "In a year's time, what's the incentive to buy a 360 when it's replacement is round the corner?" If your budget doesn't extend to $300+ for an XB3, you could buy an XB360 for half the price.

I was saying that in reply to you saying there's no incentive to buy a WiiU over 360. There's as much incentive at least.


What are the buying decisions on which people choose a console? Library, initial price, running price (cost of games), whether friends have the same console or not, novel experiences, online experiences, services and added functions like media, performance (hardware VFM), marketing. Any others? In a lot of those criteria I think Ps3 and XB360 trump Wuu.

I don't understand this at all. So people won't buy a $200 360 because it's SuperHD replacement is coming, but they will buy a $300 Wuu which is effectively a direct substitute? Whatever is negatively affecting the interest in PS360 must surely also be affecting Wuu, except perhaps among a rather naive section of the populace who just associate 'new' with 'better'.

Well my worry, if I was that consumer, would be that the games will start to dry up as its replacement is coming. It will seem old, outdated when they start advertising the virtues of its shiny replacement. That's normal though, right? And that "naive section" of populace is the vast majority of the consumer market Don't overestimate them!

edit: imo there are also areas where people might think WiiU trumps its competition. There are things it's competition can't do aswell as thing like Miiverse which seem new and exciting.




I don't believe many consoles are sold like that. They are a fairly substantial investment and the buying decision moderately informed, either by media, friends and family, or (God forbid) game store recommendations. I seriously doubt many in the market for a new games machine will ignore PS360 because they are old and choose Wuu. Certainly if they informed enough to know new consoles are just around the corner, they should be informed enough to know the value of the current consoles in comparison to Wuu.

Well the WiiU will have a years promotion behind it, all claiming it's new and is offering unique experiences the other two are not.

Economics. If it costs too much to port and the returns aren't there, you don't bother porting. IIRC PS3 had a fair few titles not ported to it in the early days. If a developer doesn't believe the platform has legs, it won't make sense to invest in the toolchains needed to support it.

We don't know that it does though. The only developer who's seemingly had trouble is one which already openly admitted they don't have the resources/staff to cope with another platform right now. And its a game being published by the almost bankrupt THQ so it's hardly a good indicator.


All of the indications prior to the launch problems were that Ninte.do were heavily investing helping third parties, supplying software, & tools/Engines etc to them, and generally making great strides. Why has that all suddenly gone out of the window??

15 million units for Wuu in its first year would be good sales. That'll be less than 10% of the HD console market. Unless those gamers are voracious software consumers, I expect a lot of devs to ignore it. And a lot of devs have been 'burnt' with Nintendo consoles in the past. They can't compete with Nintendo's own franchises. Why spend money porting your AAA blockbuster from PS360 when the market mostly wants Mario games and Nintendo minigame collections? This may not be the case, but you have to convince the devs now (actually more like a year or more ago) to invest in the platform.

As I mentioned before, because they don't wat to look silly again and miss the boat on a massive potential market as they did with the Wii. It's publishers making these decisions, remember. Not Devs.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I would be pretty damn worried about early next year sales if i were Reggie or Iwata. Wii was a success partly because of motion gaming but also price vs relevant competition. Next year PS3/Xbox will be very relevant. Software wise more relevant than Wii U.

Xbox or PS3 could go 199 with a few games anytime. In europe the 12GB PS3 is under 200€ now. Xbox 4GB could even go 149.. which is similar to Wii U basic.

A large retailer in Finland is currently selling the 360S 4GB with Kinect sensor and Kinect sport 2 for 179€. It's a sick deal and it's not just on a special weekend either.

http://prisma.s-verkkokauppa.fi/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/prisma/-00020792292--11

They also have PS3 320GB and GT5 for 229€, which is not too bad either.

 

[TheLump]

I would be pretty damn worried about early next year sales if i were Reggie or Iwata. Wii was a success partly because of motion gaming but also price vs relevant competition. Next year PS3/Xbox will be very relevant. Software wise more relevant than Wii U.

Xbox or PS3 could go 199 with a few games anytime. In europe the 12GB PS3 is under 200€ now. Xbox 4GB could even go 149.. which is similar to Wii U basic.

Xbox 360 got all the hardcore buyers in the first year because it was exciting to them and big upgrage. PS2 wasnt getting any of the PC ports like true CODs. A lot of those will continue to wait for the next machines because Wii U dosent bring new software from anyone but Nintendo.

I just dont see Wii-only owning casual dropping $349 to a console+game when they can get something else for $150 cheaper. And this was 80% that made Wii sales not the Nintendo hardcore

They cant stumble out of the gates at all because dropping Wii U skus from PS3+360+PS4+720+PC platforms is just too easy if margins are not up to par.

This time next year, PS3 will be on the verge of becoming obsolete (in consumer terms) as its replacement will be a month or so away in theory. Who's going to buy a console for which games will likely stop being produced in the near future (2014 maybe?) They'll either be saving for a PS4/720 or buying a WiiU because it'll at least be around for a few more years and has some pretty unique features.

Sure the concept of WiiU isn't as immediately obvious as Wii - but by next year it will likely be firmly in the public eye and have generated alot of buzz. People will 'get it' and they will see exactly why it's a great idea.

 

[Gerry]

One who worships daily at the Altar of Gaming Goodness...

I wish you stop with this, at least in the console forum. It's fucking dull.

 

[Gerry]

This time next year, PS3 will be on the verge of becoming obsolete (in consumer terms) as its replacement will be a month or so away in theory. Who's going to buy a console for which games will likely stop being produced in the near future (2014 maybe?) They'll either be saving for a PS4/720 or buying a WiiU because it'll at least be around for a few more years and has some pretty unique features.

To answer your question, check the sales figures for the PS2 after the PS3 went on sale.

 

[TheLump]

To answer your question, check the sales figures for the PS2 after the PS3 went on sale.

Ps2 was a phenomenon and was still selling incredibly strongly even at the end of last gen. Most of those sales since have been in countries with lower incomes where ps3 wouldnt have been viable (South American/African countries etc) You really think PS3 will do the same??

Also importantly, PS3 was backwards compatible with PS2 games which meant there was no risk that you were wasting your money continuing to buy loads of games for it only to have them rendered useless when ypu upgraded to PS3.

 

[kagemaru]

Fixed.

If you want to bring that up, you have to address it for the other consoles as well.
Like I said, AAA games will come out for PS360 next year, not the Wii. The incentive to upgrade to the WiiU from Wii is stronger. Not to mention many people have invested in a lot of peripherals and controllers that they can use for the WiiU.

Wouldn't the incentive be as strong, if not stronger, for these price conscious gamers to pick up a PS360 instead of a Wii-U considering how these AAA games would be coming to those systems?

Also, any thoughts on my earlier post to you?

 

[TheLump]

And just clarify to anyone coming into the thread at this point: Im not saying WiiU will "win next gen" or whatever you wanna call it. It won't. I'm just saying I don't believe it will be dead before the "real" next gen gets going, as some are saying.

 

[ERP]

Fixed.

If you want to bring that up, you have to address it for the other consoles as well.
Like I said, AAA games will come out for PS360 next year, not the Wii. The incentive to upgrade to the WiiU from Wii is stronger. Not to mention many people have invested in a lot of peripherals and controllers that they can use for the WiiU.

It's easily addressed for Orbis/Durango, you base development on projected sales, not actual installed base. There is the added benefit of if you release something decent at launch, then historically you get fantastic attach rates.

I would expect WiiU to get ports of games targeted at PS360, with some exceptions, the question is when all of the top tier developers have moved to Orbis/Durango, where does the quality software come from?
Nintendo obviously, but at some point, 3rd party games don't sell on WiiU becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
If the WiiU is just getting ports from PS360, then the tablet and the Nintendo exclusives have to be enough of a draw to offset the price difference.

 

[MDX]

Wouldn't the incentive be as strong, if not stronger, for these price conscious gamers to pick up a PS360 instead of a Wii-U considering how these AAA games would be coming to those systems?

Also, any thoughts on my earlier post to you?

I will get to your earlier post later, due to the fact an earlier response
I had written was erased when I tried to submit it.

Price conscious gamers will probably buy the cheaper consoles over the WiiU.
But, here is the thing, 299 is very close to the sweet spot for buying consoles.
We have no idea what MS and Sony will sell their new consoles for, but they dont sound cheap.

If Durango and/or Orbis miss Xmas 2013, I think WiiU will capture a good portion of buyers looking into getting a new console. 299 is very close to the sweet spot for buying consoles. I think anything above 350 is out of consideration for price watchers.

And here is the thing, Nintendo has the advantage for showing their big titles in HD for the first time. Their developers have always been known for great art direction, so the anticipation in seeing beloved franchises in HD cannot be underestimated. They have the continuous newness factor advantage next gen for their games and the controller. And they have vocal diehard fans who cant wait to brag about it.

The WiiU is also bringing something different to the table.
The tablet controller is a special device, and we are only getting a taste of what it
can do. NFC hasn't been implemented, dual gamepad use hasn't been implemented, TVii
still needs to be implemented, and Nintendo still has their AAA titles to reveal how it can be implemented.

Im more confident with future PS3 sales (worldwide) than 360. I think the blu-ray component of the PS3, Free online, and their nice looking exclusives will have it eventually edge out the Xbox. AFAIR Neilsen has the PS3 trending better. But overall, sales for those consoles are doing down, not up. Im sure there will be the boost for Xmas this year and next. But both consoles are currently trending far below the WiiU.

Nintendo has stated they had games prepared for WiiU launch. They held these games back because the third party support was pretty good. So Nintendo can easily space their titles over the year to keep the WiiU momentum going.

So, a price conscious person will take into consideration for a little bit more money, they can at least get a console with a viable lifespan.

 

[Sonic]

Nope. Wii U's primary advantage is Nintendo games and even that might not cut muster this time around. It would be pointless for developers to abandon PS360's existing userbase if they were to develop games for Wii U. If the game's sales end up not being worth it then the abandonment will occur, but it will still probably be worthwhile to support those systems until next gen picks up full steam. And by that time, Wii U won't be the primary target platform. Nintendo may continue to thrive in its own ecosystem, or they may flounder through lack of consumer interest and waning public perception.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This time next year, PS3 will be on the verge of becoming obsolete (in consumer terms) as its replacement will be a month or so away in theory. Who's going to buy a console for which games will likely stop being produced in the near future (2014 maybe?).

But why will games stop being made for PS360 but not Wii U when its in the same category of hardware? Almost any game being targeted for Wuu could get a PS360 port. Wuu likely won't be getting XB3/PS4 ports, so when developers move on with the hardware, Wuu will only get exclusively targeted titles, no?

I can see two thought processes for publishers. One is faith in the platform, and a desire to get in quick and maybe establish a new franchise early on like Gears/Uncharted. The second is a wait-and-see approach, waiting until the install base is large enough to justify investment. It's been said here that often launch games lose publishers money, but those first titles are important for establishing developer toolchains and processes that'll lead to later titles. That is, game 1 from a developer is starting from scratch, whereas games 2 and 3 build on that. That means the first title can't be looked on as being highly profitable unless you get lucky. You either go in for the long haul, or avoid it. I don't see the reasoning behind Wuu lasting longer in software than PS360, unless we have a landmark touch game that gets everyone interested in that particular experience.

As for the earlier comment about difficulties, I point you to the EG article:

One developer working on a key AAA franchise port told us anonymously that the Nintendo toolchain is "fighting us every step of the way",

It's only one comment, but it's there all the same. Plus we know it has a weak CPU. Plus we know it need engine refactoring to fit the system. Had Nintendo put in some decent hardware so ports were a doddle, I'd give the Wuu's chances a higher rating, but I imagine the majority of third parties to steer clear and Wuu's 3rd party software will trend with PS360's. Time will tell.

 

[Rangers]

And just clarify to anyone coming into the thread at this point: Im not saying WiiU will "win next gen" or whatever you wanna call it. It won't. I'm just saying I don't believe it will be dead before the "real" next gen gets going, as some are saying.

It's still in stock lots of places after Black Friday.

I think it's dead, probably worse than I even thought.

All along I said it'd be clearly and obviously dead within two years. I was more interested in where Nintendo goes next, there will be a day of reckoning.

But even I wouldn't have been surprised if it sold well initially, before real whiffs of next gen leak out in a matter of a few months, but it doesnt even seem to be doing that.

It all comes back to power. If it even was clearly 50% stronger than PS3/360 I think it would have a lot more excitement. It wouldn't have changed it's ultimate fate imo, but people would have been a lot more excited for it right now I think. I think it's just a huge deal that you cant buy it and at least know, however underwhelming, you have the best current console tech on the planet, a taste of the future. Instead it seems to be about 10% weaker than a PS3.

Just these first few days of sales must have Nintendo pretty worried. If it cant sell now of all times, wow.

That is if they had any brains. In actuality I imagine they're thinking something like "well wait until games really take advantage of the touchscreen later on, no need to panic".

Sort of like Sony is handling the Vita failure, where they just dont seem to get it.

Edit: had somebody point out to me they think Nintendo Wii U is poised to do well in Japan. Certainly 3DS is very strong there. So maybe if Nintendo are content with being relegated to Japan, it's not so bad.

 

[TheLump]

But why will games stop being made for PS360 but not Wii U when its in the same category of hardware? Almost any game being targeted for Wuu could get a PS360 port. Wuu likely won't be getting XB3/PS4 ports, so when developers move on with the hardware, Wuu will only get exclusively targeted titles, no?

I can see two thought processes for publishers. One is faith in the platform, and a desire to get in quick and maybe establish a new franchise early on like Gears/Uncharted. The second is a wait-and-see approach, waiting until the install base is large enough to justify investment. It's been said here that often launch games lose publishers money, but those first titles are important for establishing developer toolchains and processes that'll lead to later titles. That is, game 1 from a developer is starting from scratch, whereas games 2 and 3 build on that. That means the first title can't be looked on as being highly profitable unless you get lucky. You either go in for the long haul, or avoid it. I don't see the reasoning behind Wuu lasting longer in software than PS360, unless we have a landmark touch game that gets everyone interested in that particular experience.

As for the earlier comment about difficulties, I point you to the EG article:

It's only one comment, but it's there all the same. Plus we know it has a weak CPU. Plus we know it need engine refactoring to fit the system. Had Nintendo put in some decent hardware so ports were a doddle, I'd give the Wuu's chances a higher rating, but I imagine the majority of third parties to steer clear and Wuu's 3rd party software will trend with PS360's. Time will tell.

I'm only saying games will eventually slow & stop for ps3, because its replacement will be here - not because it's on the same level of hardware. Developers will be readying forth next platform (which likely won't share its architecture with ps3) Sales will slow as people start buying ps4 or start realising their ps3 games wont work on ps4 (apparently) The platform won't continue like ps2 did because it's not as popular.

And re the comment: it's worrying, sure. But it is one comment. I like I said, the vast majority of 3rd party comments/murmurings prior to to launch, and even some after have still been positive. A lot commented on the ease at which they got their code up and running, the help Nintendo is offering etc, and we've seen some good ports too. AC3 is pretty solid, ME3 is supposedly better performing than ps3 version except and odd scene here and there, FIFA actually has graphical improvements, Tekken (after all they're CPU worries - they were one of the only ones I heard with worries pre-launch) have produced a flawless version of their game. I'm not going to forget all that because a dev has pointed out their admittedly CPU heavy game would have been a pain to workaround had they had time/resources to to a port (and had their publisher not been almost bankrupt) and because 1x port has been very poor (Batman).

What you're saying is totally plausible - I'm just not seeing the evidence there (yet) to call it probable. Give it more than a week, imo

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm only saying games will eventually slow & stop for ps3, because its replacement will be here - not because it's on the same level of hardware. Developers will be readying forth next platform (which likely won't share its architecture with ps3) Sales will slow as people start buying ps4 or start realising their ps3 games wont work on ps4 (apparently) The platform won't continue like ps2 did because it's not as popular.

Why will those developers move off PS360 and onto PS4+XB3+Wuu? I don't see why you differentiate the PS3 games viability from Wuu's. Any developer turning their back on PS3 now is surely going to also ignore Wuu as a far smaller platform with more cost involved. Any developer targeting Wuu with a title will surely also port it to PS360. I can't envisage any scenario where PS360 get dropped regards new titles but Wuu gets a healthy stream of content, except if Wuu explodes with popularity. And because Wuu likely won't be getting XB3/PS4 ports, surely it'll have a poor range of upcoming titles after two years.

 

[TheLump]

Why will those developers move off PS360 and onto PS4+XB3+Wuu? I don't see why you differentiate the PS3 games viability from Wuu's. Any developer turning their back on PS3 now is surely going to also ignore Wuu as a far smaller platform with more cost involved. Any developer targeting Wuu with a title will surely also port it to PS360. I can't envisage any scenario where PS360 get dropped regards new titles but Wuu gets a healthy stream of content, except if Wuu explodes with popularity. And because Wuu likely won't be getting XB3/PS4 ports, surely it'll have a poor range of upcoming titles after two years.

Because it's being replaced! WiiU isn't being replaced and will be in production for the next 4/5 years. PS3 is being replaced probably next year and within another year it probably won't be a viable platform for larger budget titles as its userbase goes down. A huge chunk of ps3 owners will be upgrading to ps4 won't they? Did Xbox game sales continue strongly the year after 360 launch? GC games after Wii Launch? Wii games will have stopped within the next year too.

As an example, I won't be buying ps3 games in 2014, assuming ps4 is out. I'll be buying ps4 games instead

If that wasnt the case, platforms would last forever and no one would invest in new ones!

On the flipside of your argument (that WiiU games will dry up as new platforms arrive) why doesn't that apply to the very platforms those new systems are replacing? At the very least WiiU will have its manufacturer (1st & 2nd party games) behind it. You aren't going to see Halo 5 or Uncharted 4 on ps360 are you? The systems are being replaced and that's the difference between their situation and WiiU. It matters not how their specs line up (in this respect anyway - it does matter in other areas and will negatively affect WiiUs 3rd party games in the long run imo)

We also have no idea how easy it will be to port from 720/ps4 to WiiU? There's no reason to think it will be as difficultas with Wii this gen. Not yet anyway.

 

[Nesh]

Because it's being replaced! WiiU isn't being replaced and will be in production for the next 4/5 years. PS3 is being replaced probably next year and within another year it probably won't be a viable platform for larger budget titles as its userbase goes down. Did Xbox game sales continue strongly the year after 360 launch? GC games after Wii Launch? Wii games will have stopped within the next year too.

As an example, I won't be buying ps3 games in 2014, assuming ps4 is out. I'll be buying ps4 games instead

If that wasnt the case, platforms would last forever and no one would invest in new ones!

On the flipside of your argument (that WiiU games will dry up as new platforms arrive) why doesn't that apply to the very platforms those new systems are replacing? At the very least WiiU will have its manufacturer (1st & 2nd party games) behind it. You aren't going to see Halo 5 or Uncharted 4 on ps360 are you? The systems are being replaced and that's the difference between their situation and WiiU. It matters not how their specs line up (in this respect anyway - it does matter in other areas and will negatively affect WiiUs 3rd party games in the long run imo)

WiiU is cought between two generations in terms of its capabilities and time of release. It now gets the games that will be released on both the 360 and PS3 since its technically in similar levels but what will happen once the next gen platforns arrive? It looks to me that devs (and probably the majority of consumers) may shift to the PS4 and new XBOX.

The devs will have a bigger userbase of 360s and PS3s to sell their games on and a much smaller WiiU userbase. If people wont be interested in playing those older gen looking games in 2014 on the PS3 and 360 why would they be interested to convert and play the same games on the WiiU when it doesnt offer a sabstantially better version of the games?

These people have less reasons to convert because of that to a WiiU and more to convert to a PS4 and Xbox3 because its where they will get the substantially upgraded experience

First party games arent enough to maintain a strong library and to me it looks,like the WiiU might experience saturation faster than the Wii unless the tablet introduces real groundbraking experiences that competition may not ne able to compete with

 

[TheLump]

WiiU is cought between two generations in terms of its capabilities and time of release. It now gets the games that will be released on both the 360 and PS3 since its technically in similar levels but what will happen once the next gen platforns arrive? It looks to me that devs (and probably the majority of consumers) may shift to the PS4 and new XBOX.

The devs will have a bigger userbase of 360s and PS3s to sell their games on and a much smaller WiiU userbase. If people wont be interested in playing those older gen looking games in 2014 on the PS3 and 360 why would they be interested to convert and play the same games on the WiiU when it doesnt offer a sabstantially better version of the games?

These people have less reasons to convert because of that to a WiiU and more to convert to a PS4 and Xbox3 because its where they will get the substantially upgraded experience

First party games arent enough to maintain a strong library and to me it looks,like the WiiU might experience saturation faster than the Wii unless the tablet introduces real groundbraking experiences that competition may not ne able to compete with

Good points. I really do understand how that might happen - and I'm not saying it won't: I'm just saying it's too many ifs and buts on either side of the argument right now to say what's going to happen definitively, not to mention we're making a lot of assumptions only a week into WiiUs life. I'm just trying to argue the toss

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Because it's being replaced! WiiU isn't being replaced and will be in production for the next 4/5 years. PS3 is being replaced probably next year and within another year it probably won't be a viable platform for larger budget titles as its userbase goes down. A huge chunk of ps3 owners will be upgrading to ps4 won't they?

You've completely lost me here. Games are made as long as people are buying them. In the case of a generational shift such as PS2 to PS3, developers move on because they have already exhausted the opportunities on the old machines. They can't sell Halo 3, 4 and 5 on Xbox because they'll be little different to Halo 1 and 2. New hardware invigorates software sales by giving gamers the next gen of games. The new hardware doesn't necessitate the end of the old - it's a natural evolution. Now if the market decides $100 HD consoles are in vogue, developers will still make games for them, but the core can be trusted to shift over to the new machines. That's why the developers chase the new hardware with the anticipation of years of new games.

The end of this generation is because the technology is tired and can't achieve much more (that's a big discussion in itself, but the way games are made, it's how they are perceived). Gamers are getting ready to move on. If a developer feels their title won't make big sales on PS360 and target the next-gen instead, why would they believe their software will sell lots on Wuu? Let's take, say, the next Assassin's Creed game. The developers choose not to target PS360 because they are old. Why are they going to choose to make a Wuu version? Who's buying Wuu? Core gamers who already owned PS360? - then the old-fashioned software won't sell any more to them than on their old HD console. Wii upgraders who had no interest in owning an HD console this gen? - then what interest will there be for an FPS or sports game or AAA adventure on Wuu?

You're only argument for why Wuu will be a strong platform for developers seems to be 'because its new'. Vita is new, but that's not a strong market. Being new isn't enough. 3rd parties need an install base that buys software. Too few consoles or too little interest in what's on offer and the market is non-viable. And that issue compounds itself, as less developers targeting a platform means less software and less reason to buy that console, especially when there are cheaper rivals with bigger libraries.

On the flipside of your argument (that WiiU games will dry up as new platforms arrive) why doesn't that apply to the very platforms those new systems are replacing? At the very least WiiU will have its manufacturer (1st & 2nd party games) behind it.

Right. Nintendo consoles are for Nintendo games. Sony and MS may not be pushing new games for their systems, but 3rd parties are free to. Nintendo will invest in software, but why would third parties? Meaning Wuu will just be a Nintendo-box. And that's a fear publishers have which means they may be inclined to avoid the platform.

We also have no idea how easy it will be to port from 720/ps4 to WiiU? There's no reason to think it will be as difficultas with Wii this gen. Not yet anyway.

We have a pretty good idea that Wuu won't be competitive. that CPU will prove a lot of trouble. It'd be similar to porting a game from PS3 to PS2. Not as extreme, but the gamers who are wanting that next-gen high-tech experience aren't going to find it on Wuu. And if the Wuu version is that cut-down, will the game even have it's value to the market?

Wuu won't get next-gen ports because it can't handle them and the Wuu owners are probably not interested in the core AAA games. Wuu won't get 3rd party games that PS360 won't also get at a cheaper price. Wuu is only going to get Nintendo first-party and some specialist exclusives. Meaning it's software appeal is going to be limited, meaning its userbase will be limited, meaning its worth avoiding. The argument snowballs in my mind. There's no way I'd invest in Wuu development at this point, just as I was saying Vita wouldn't be worth investing in unless you either created a launch title or it somehow takes off. I would invest in PS360 development due to userbase, or next-gen because the gamers are going to move there.

 

[ninzel]

I actually abstained from voting because the question isn't clear.
The title says "can",the poll says "will" .