Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[Exophase]

Wii was big because it was:

a) Cheaper than the competition, where you had to pay $600 for a non-gimped PS3 and $400 for a non-gimped XBox 360 (I'm told the gimped versions were too compromised to be useful) vs only $250 for a Wii
b) Came out after the competition so the others already played their cards and thus no one had anything to make them wait and see
c) Still offered substantially typically better graphics than last gen, especially since the competition of interest was mostly with the PS2 - which also did quite well clear until the end of 2006 or so IIRC.
d) Had an interesting new gimmick with games heavily designed around it, that fundamentally changed the way they were played

Compare with now:

a) Price can go either way since we don't know what Sony/MS's next gens will cost. Wii U's base model price isn't bad until you consider that you need to add external storage.
b) Wii U is out first so a lot of people will be waiting to see what the others come out with (not that Nintendo had a choice, with Wii sales falling off a cliff). Of course, Nintendo gets the lucrative holiday season, but the problem with the holidays is that they're competing with a lot of other devices that aren't gaming specific.
c) Offers graphics that are about on parity with the other (now cheaper) consoles
d) Has a gimmick that has so far been more interesting as a minor convenience than as a new gameplay device, where it plays catch up with what has been done on other platforms for a while now. Meanwhile the old gimmick, motion control, is being done better by the other consoles.

Nintendo has their work cut out for them. Sony will have probably learned not to try selling a console for $600 again - even at a $400 price point they can easily offer something technically superior to what Nintendo is selling. I'm actually at a loss as to how $300 is pretty much Nintendo selling at cost. The estimate that's been floating of a $180 BOM cost seems closer to accurate, and it's not like Wii U would have needed a very big R&D budget (nor have they done an awful lot of advertising).

 

[swaaye]

I bought Wii and skipped 360 and PS3. I picked up the Wii because of the motion controls. I didn't buy PS3 or 360 because the games I care about there are available on PC.

Wii ended up with a pretty lame library though and so I thought it was very disappointing in the end. The motion controls also ended up feeling mostly like a gimmick, and even made some game genres very difficult for me to control. I'm guessing other gamers felt burned by Wii in the same way and this is another negative factor for WiiU to deal with aside from feeling has-been in general.

I don't know what to expect from the massive crowd of generally non-gamers that also bought into Wii. But WiiU certainly does not have anything like Wii's unprecedented motion control innovation.

IMO however the wimpy tech aspects are not that much of an issue. Outside of the cutesy-colorful games, Wii was really shockingly ugly on HD TVs because of its 480p limit and Gamecube graphics. This was back when people were transitioning to HD TVs too. Wii U will never look that obviously bad. It is a massive improvement over Wii.

 

[Nesh]

There is a very big reason why the WiiU might not do well or even fail as a product altogether.

What made Wii the huge success it was? The motion controller. Why? Because it so simple and accessible even your grandma can play it.
When Nintendo chose the motion controller is because they wanted to find ways to attract those that werent gamers, those that were different from the common XBOX, PS gamer. Its that different experience and easy accessibility that sold it.

The WiiU may support the Wiimote but, Nintendo wants dev support for its tablet to showcase the new experience which is actually a traditionally controller with a screen if you look at it.
My grandma cant play with that thing. She now has to deal with buttons again, an extra screen to switch back and forth to, touch screen, and extra information that may be separately displayed on the tablet. There goes the simplicity

The devs cant focus on both the WiiMote and the tablet. The first thoughts are: what the user will play on? What does Nintendo want to highlight?

Tablet? Or Wiimote? Both? Pick the tablet, put it down and then get the controller and then put down the controller and pick the tablet? It doesnt work. Tablet will be the priority

Games that use both controllers are games that are designed with local multiplayer in mind. But that makes game design complicated. One guy with a tablet and 3 others with a controller means the dev will have to design a game where this layout makes sense and its fun.

This shows that what have attracted the consumers to buy the Wii is what might be gradually losing support in favor of the tablet in time.

The WiiU is like a PS3/360 with an enhanced controller. This is why we get ports from PS3 and 360 games. These are not the type of games that people were buying Wii for and this is not how Nintendo wants to market its console. People who buy games like Mass Effect or Batman own a PS3 and a 360 by now and I dont see them converting to WiiU. I dont see the people that loved motion controllers buying WiiU to play those games either. The different market segments are caught in confusion and in uncertainty whether its worth to upgrade or not

With their approach they are probably doing counterintuitive moves and alienate the consumers that made them a success this generation. The Wiimote is cannibalized by the tablet.

 

[Arwin]

A lot of good points, but I disagree with your last line. Most of the games on the Wii U actually support Wii-Motes in some form or other.

 

[Nesh]

A lot of good points, but I disagree with your last line. Most of the games on the Wii U actually support Wii-Motes in some form or other.

Lets say I am playing a solo campaign, do I switch between the controllers?
Hoe does that work?

 

[Prophecy2k]

WiiU sales will be dead by fall 2015.

Once PS4 and Durango launch there'll be no need for people to buy WiiU's.

Wii was big because it mopped up the casual market, and it did so because motion controls (which were new and truly innovative) really resonated with the intended audience.

WiiU is less than current gen HW being sold with a tacked on cheap gimmick. The tablet in the controller is not something that immediately resonates with casual consumers, and I think Nintendo has an uphill (mountainous) battle trying to get the core gamers to buy into WiiU, even as a second or third console.

I think the WiiU will be a disaster. I truly do...

 

[almighty]

It looks like there's only me and someone else that voted yes!!

 

[Strange]

Lets say I am playing a solo campaign, do I switch between the controllers?
Hoe does that work?

You grab the wiimote after your tablet runs out of batteries.

 

[Arwin]

Lets say I am playing a solo campaign, do I switch between the controllers?
Hoe does that work?

Anything multi-player on Wii U basically works with one GamePad and one or more WiiMotes and/or 'regular' controllers.

 

[MDX]

It looks like there's only me and someone else that voted yes!!

Yeah, I would have expected a little bit more common sense voting. Even if you are MS/Sony fan its plain to see the advantages the WiiU will have

1. Larger user base
2. Three E3 appearances (more exposure)
3. More games available.
4. A year to iron out all the kinks to distribution channels, online, SDK kits, marketing etc.
5. One or two AAA 1st Party titles for Xmas 2013
6. Friendly ecosphere for indie developers
7. Patching that wont break developers financially
8. Inexpensive dev kits
9. Mass market games: 2D Mario, Nintendoland, Legoland, Skylanders, Wiifit, Karaoke, etc.
10. System Sellers:
Nintendo land, the type of game that sells through word of mouth.
2D Mario, a proven system seller
ZombiU, bringing back sorely missed survival horror.
11. Killer apps: Miiverse, TVii

Plus, recent Neilsen ratings has WiiU trending in the top 5 most wanted electronic device.
And Wii is actually trending closely behind to the 360 and PS3. Which means general population sees this as a new console.

Sony
Sony has a problem that their credit ratings are getting hit: Will developers trust Sony?
Vita is not doing so hot: Will developers trust Sony?

Microsoft
Will be aggressive in the US, and probably in the EU. But not capturing Japan will always keep them 2nd or 3rd place in sales. So what are their chances in doing so?

Clearly Microsoft is making a Jack of Trades, box, that might end up being Master of None. How are they going to market this machine? To who? What about reliability issues? Many gamers might be hesitant to buy an Xbox3 because of defective launch 360 units. This can also plague the PS4 depending how complex they made it.

Both consoles will have big titles from third parties coming in out in 2013. Sony also has big titles planned. So we have a situation where the cheaper PS3/360 will be competing against PS4/Xbox3. Nintendo basically starved their fans, and an HD upgrade from the SD Wii is big noticeable difference in quality. The PS4/Xbx3 will go from HD to HD.

Marketing
How long will they need? 5 months? Reveal at E3 and sell for Xmas 2013? What happens if they need to launch in 2014? Will either console catch to up WiiU sales after missing 2 Xmas's?

Launch games
How many will they have? Or will they rely on 3rd parties that probably will supplying the same titles to the WiiU. So what's the big exclusive franchise title that will sell units like Mario for either of them? Microsoft will definitely try to use Kinect2. Will core Xbox gamers be happy with that?

Then we have the historical view. The least powerful gaming device sold the most.
From portables to consoles.

In light of all those factors, are people saying that a jump in power will position either the Xbox3 or PS4 in the number one and two spot?

 

[Scott_Arm]

I'm surprised the Wii U is sold at a loss, but it becomes profitable after 1 game sale. I'm not sure if that's the 6GB or 32GB console. Anyway, they're selling out and making a profit on each unit. The negativity from the hardcore about the Wii did not impact its sales much at all, so I imagine the same will be true with the Wii U. I don't know if the tablet will catch on as much as the motion gaming did, but I think it'll be a success. #1 in sales ... I don't know about that, but it'll probably sell very well.

 

[Nesh]

Anything multi-player on Wii U basically works with one GamePad and one or more WiiMotes and/or 'regular' controllers.

But you see the use has already been limited :s
Only in multiplayer you expect to see the Wiimote in use. Solo is the standard in general. The tablet will be the primary
I dont see multiplayer games becoming the norm either unless all devs decide to infest the game library mostly with party games

 

[Nesh]

You grab the wiimote after your tablet runs out of batteries.

Good one

 

[Prophecy2k]

Yeah, I would have expected a little bit more common sense voting. Even if you are MS/Sony fan its plain to see the advantages the WiiU will have

ORLY? I don't think it's plain to see at all. Quite the contrary actually. There's a reason Nintendo's stock price dipped after the console's initial reveal (key: even Nintendo investors showed to have no confidence in the device, especially coming off the back of the Wii).

Anyway i'll bite on the following:

1. Larger user base - Than what, the Vita? The Wii's userbase is less than the total current gen HD console userbase, so if anything that points to the core audience being much bigger than the casual Wii audience. You also cannot simply assume that everyone who bought Wii will go and buy the WiiU, especially when it's already showing to be a far less compelling and far less polished product than the Wii was (for what the Wii was).
2. Three E3 appearances (more exposure) - Means nothing. It's intended audience (i.e. the casuals) don't even follow E3. And then you have to factor in the point that showing a new console over the course of three separate E3s prior to launch gives more time for the hype to die down and for people to learn enough about the new system to see all its failings clear as day before they rush out amidst a train of hype to buy the thing. If anything this is much more of a detriment ot the WiiU than a positive.
3. More games available - Than what, the PS360? That's obviously silly and incorrect, and the WiiU and it's numerous current gen ports will be worth little when PS4 and Durango are announced and their true next-gen games shown.
4. A year to iron out all the kinks to distribution channels, online, SDK kits, marketing etc. - Yet you convieniently fail to recognise that Sony and MS have had an entire generation (two in MS' case) to do this. Nintendo is playing catch up and it would be foolish to think that their online systems ans services will be anything near PSN and XBL once Sony and MS are ready to launch their new boxes.
5. One or two AAA 1st Party titles for Xmas 2013 - Vs numerous first and thrid party AAAA titles for PS4 and Durango. The Nintendo faithful will be there for WiiU, but after that the device will fail to capture anyone else.
6. Friendly ecosphere for indie developers - Moreso than Steam/iOS/Android/PSN and XBLA? I hardly think that will be the case. It wasn't particularly so this gen, and i don't suspect it will be so next-gen.
7. Patching that wont break developers financially - It doesn't do for PSN and XBLA either. Since on PS360 we're constantly getting our games patched. Protip - just cuz you read something on the internet, doesn't mean its true or the full picture ;-)
8. Inexpensive dev kits - Compared to what? iOS? And you know how much a PS4 and Durango Devkit will cost? Yeah that's just conjecture my friend ;-)
9. Mass market games: 2D Mario, Nintendoland, Legoland, Skylanders, Wiifit, Karaoke, etc. - All of which will not draw the core audience to the console. Plus, together with the rediculous pricetag and limited appeal of the USP gimmick, I hardly see the existence of those kinds of games, of which will also exist on the other consoles in one form or another, will do anything significant for the WiiU.
10. System Sellers:
Nintendo land, the type of game that sells through word of mouth. - Lol.
2D Mario, a proven system seller - At the WiiU's price? Lol.
ZombiU, bringing back sorely missed survival horror. - Didn't you see the reviews? Also, dead island, dead space and RE exist. So does games like Silent Hill etc etc. ZombiU is an unremarkable game on an unremarkable console. My opinion of course.
11. Killer apps: Miiverse, TVii - Lol.

The rest I won't say anything in response to. It's all speculation and conjecture at this point. And we know so little about MS and Sony's next consoles that there's nothing that can be said at this point.

What I will say however, is that after all the launch smoke dies down and people realise how limited the WiiU is as a games console, the WiiU will most certainly end up failing to compete with PS3 and Xbox360, nevermind the next lot of Sony/MS consoles. Of that i'm quite sure.

 

[TheLump]

I don't think WiiU will "Win the next gen" but then again I'm not sure what "winning the generation" implies? Is it profit? Userbase at the end of the generation? Overall Sales?

IMO (best guess)
WiiU obviously isn't going to sell as much as Wii, but its sales plateu will last longer. I don't think the WiiU dies as soon as the other guys are released either. There is a market for WiiU, maybe not the one Nintendo were originally aiming for but I think it will gain a solid following. It will receive more 3rd party ports than Wii did this gen (albeit gimped to cope with the lack of horsepower) because it is at least compatible with the current standard feature sets (something Wii lacked from the start). It will succeed in making Nintendo a nice profit for the next 3/4 years and eventually sales will tale off. We'll likely see its succesor in 2018.

Overall I reckon the overall sales will top PS4. I can really see this being Sony's last console.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't think WiiU will "Win the next gen" but then again I'm not sure what "winning the generation" implies? Is it profit? Userbase at the end of the generation? Overall Sales?

"Winning" can be taken as 'most units sold' unless declared otherwise. A more accurate measure would be consoles in use, but that's hard to come by, so total sold including repeat sales to existing customers as replacements or second consoles has to be the metric of choice.

This race may become very complex next gen. What if MS release a set-top box that runs some XB games, or if it runs the same games at a lower quality - does each STB sold count as an XB3 sold? What if Sony release PS4 and a dumb game-streaming consolette that allows PS4 games to be streamed over Gaikai - does the dumb box count as a PS4 sale?

Assuming we just get three discrete under-the-TV boxes though like previous generations, I currently doubt Wii U will do at all well. My guess is something like GC/XB, with 25 million over its life. Okay, maybe more than 25 million if we consider the gamer market has increased overall since last gen, but it'll be a small fraction. Maybe an amazing title will appear with the draw of Wii Sports, but I'm not seeing that potential in the tablet. It doesn't play Wii games with any improvement, so short of their existing library on the one console instead of two, there's little incentive for Wii owners to value Wuu over PS360 as a new HD console. That means its tapping into the same gamer base as before, for which I question if Wuu will get ports. It currently offers negligible install base for developers to care about targeting, and given ports aren't particularly easy as many were hoping assuming more power than PS360, there's little economic sense in targeting Wuu beyond launch titles when owners are looking for anything to play. Going forwards, porting XB3/PS4 games to Wuu wont' be easy or cheap either, so it'll likely miss out on many AAA titles.

I'm just not seeing the USP or value of Wuu to Joe Consumer or Joe Gamer. It's key strength is its small form factor (slightly mussed up if you add an external HDD) and low-power, which isn't a priority for anyone. Joe Hardcore will wait for and eventually get PS4 or XB3 in 2013/14/15. Joe Mainstream will swap over eventually 2015/16/17. Joe Cheapskate will pick up a really cheap XB360 or PS3 2012 onwards. Jenny Waggler will buy a Wii if she doesn't already own one. Joe Nintendofan will get a Wuu for his Nintendo franchises, like he bought GC and N64. Otherwise there's just no big strength to Wuu to appeal to a significant demographic IMO. I don't think Nintendo's execution of the tablet controller is enough.

 

[MDX]

ORLY? I don't think it's plain to see at all. Quite the contrary actually. There's a reason Nintendo's stock price dipped after the console's initial reveal (key: even Nintendo investors showed to have no confidence in the device, especially coming off the back of the Wii).

You want to bring up market confidence when Sony has been rated to junk status?


Anyway i'll bite on the following:

1. Larger user base - Than what, the Vita?

No, than next gen consoles that haven't launched yet.
What does Vita have to do with the tea in China?
"Anyone still think Wii U can "win" "next gen"?" is the question of this thread.

Are you suggesting that WiiU will not have a bigger user base than when Durango or Orbis launches?


The Wii's userbase is less than the total current gen HD console userbase,

It is still in the lead, and therefore has won this gen sales wise.


2. Three E3 appearances (more exposure) - Means nothing. It's intended audience (i.e. the casuals) don't even follow E3.

The console is not intended just for casuals. Thats what you want it to be.
Its a console for everyone. How many times does Nintendo have to say this?
Its what Microsoft and Sony want as well for their consoles. For everyone to buy it,
not just niche of gamers. The console maker that does the better job in reaching out to as many markets as possible, will be the sales leader for next gen. Thats just common sense.


And then you have to factor in the point that showing a new console over the course of three separate E3s prior to launch gives more time for the hype to die down and for people to learn enough about the new system to see all its failings clear as day before they rush out amidst a train of hype to buy the thing. If anything this is much more of a detriment ot the WiiU than a positive.

What
I have a hard time comprehending what you just wrote.
Be that as it may, you have to consider that, for Nintendo, their next E3 will
be easier than their last two. Why, because all they have to focus on is games.
They dont have to worry about explaining what the console is, and what it can do.
If Sony and MS both reveal their console during E3, they will be again fighting in a red ocean. Both probably will try to reveal their consoles earlier because of this.

3. More games available - Than what, the PS360?

Again... than either the Durango or Orbis when they launch.
I think you are in the wrong thread.


That's obviously silly and incorrect, and the WiiU and it's numerous current gen ports will be worth little when PS4 and Durango are announced and their true next-gen games shown.

Whats a "true" next-gen game?



4. A year to iron out all the kinks to distribution channels, online, SDK kits, marketing etc. - Yet you convieniently fail to recognise that Sony and MS have had an entire generation (two in MS' case) to do this.

So... MS and Sony are simply going to use the same set up as this gen?
Thats not refreshing. At any rate, I didnt say XBL or PSN currently sucks or wont be interesting next gen. Im saying that Nintendo has about year to improve their online network. Enough so that the differences between the three will be a matter of taste, and probably affordability.


Nintendo is playing catch up and it would be foolish to think that their online systems ans services will be anything near PSN and XBL once Sony and MS are ready to launch their new boxes.

Have you seen the new PSN and XBL, can you see into the future or is this just wishful thinking? Oh wait... you call yourself Prophecy...


5. One or two AAA 1st Party titles for Xmas 2013 - Vs numerous first and thrid party AAAA titles for PS4 and Durango.

Wait... which titles are those, because as of yet, I haven't seen one. How fast can these developers make these so called AAA(A) games? You honestly think you will see many high budget games for two new systems next Xmas 2013? You really think that? Even when developers say things like...

Rockstar on why they chose PS3 and not PS4:
Some other people talk about the limitations of the [current] hardware. We don’t feel there are that many limitations. We feel we can do some very impressive stuff and do it for a large audience. This felt like the way… There’ll be a much larger audience on PS3 than there will be on PS4.

Or are you thinking they are planning to release GTA6 as a launch title?
Or maybe you expect Halo for MS's launch?


The Nintendo faithful will be there for WiiU, but after that the device will fail to capture anyone else.

How do you identify Nintendo faithful from everyone else?
And dont you think that Nintendo made new fans with the Wii?


6. Friendly ecosphere for indie developers - Moreso than Steam/iOS/Android/PSN and XBLA? I hardly think that will be the case. It wasn't particularly so this gen, and i don't suspect it will be so next-gen.

It is the case:

"That's what we love about the new eShop," marketing manager Mikael Haveri told IGN. "We have the power to price our products as we please, with just some basic guidelines from the big guys. The step to this is purely from Nintendos's side and they clearly see that [their] previous installments have not been up to par. We can set our own pricing and actually continuing on that by setting our own sales whenever we want. It is very close to what Apple and Steam are doing at the moment, and very indie friendly."

You seem to be under the impression that Nintendo has the inability to innovate or improve on its products and services. You can call Nintendo a turtle for taking its time and making small steps, and MS and Sony hares for how they try to leap ahead of their competition. But we know how the story ends.


7. Patching that wont break developers financially - It doesn't do for PSN and XBLA either. Since on PS360 we're constantly getting our games patched. Protip - just cuz you read something on the internet, doesn't mean its true or the full picture

Thanks for the tip.
Now, can you tell then if this is a lie?

This isn’t a unique story for video games, but what came next is rather novel: Polytron, the game’s developer, released a statement that stated the old patch was going back online, with no further fixes expected. If you lost you saved game, well… tough sh!t. The reason for the lack of ongoing support? Polytron didn’t want to pay Microsoft the $40,000 it would cost the developer to release the next patch.

The $40,000 patch
Microsoft dislikes patches, and the company goes out of its way to make sure games released on Xbox Live are as clean as possible. Part of the deal you have to sign in order to release you game on Xbox Live is that you’re given one free patch to fix issues in your game, but after that you’ll have to pay $40,000 in order to release a follow-up patch.


See, I didnt say that Xbox games dont get patched. But big publishers can afford such fixes, indie developers usually cannot. And thats why Nintendo's eshop is more friendly, and wont break a developer's bank.


8. Inexpensive dev kits - Compared to what? iOS?

What? Is Apple now included as having a next gen console.
News to me.

And you know how much a PS4 and Durango Devkit will cost? Yeah that's just conjecture my friend

No I dont, and I didnt say it was going to be expensive this time around. But,
we do know that MS and Sony devkits were a lot more expensive then Nintendo's.

Nintendo is also offering:

Wii U developers free access to tools and software, the company recently announced. Nintendo has reached an agreement with game software maker Autodesk to license its GameWare middleware and software packages for the Wii U.

Great if MS and Sony do such things. But this is an incentive to get developers onboard the WiiU now.


9. Mass market games: 2D Mario, Nintendoland, Legoland, Skylanders, Wiifit, Karaoke, etc. - All of which will not draw the core audience to the console.

Sure they will. Core audiences, however you see them, have families too, right?
As a matter of fact, I think many "core" audiences also like multiplayer games.


Plus, together with the rediculous pricetag and limited appeal of the USP gimmick, I hardly see the existence of those kinds of games, of which will also exist on the other consoles in one form or another, will do anything significant for the WiiU.

OK, so which games are driving WiiU sales?



10. System Sellers:
Nintendo land, the type of game that sells through word of mouth. - Lol.
2D Mario, a proven system seller - At the WiiU's price? Lol.
ZombiU, bringing back sorely missed survival horror. - Didn't you see the reviews? Also, dead island, dead space and RE exist. So does games like Silent Hill etc etc. ZombiU is an unremarkable game on an unremarkable console. My opinion of course.

Based on you playing it? And I have read the reviews, and I can parse through which ones are full of it, and which ones are accurate. I also have read many opinions from gamers who, for the most part, really enjoy the title. But thats not why its a system seller. WiiSports (76 on metacritic) was also not ranked high. But people were curious, they wanted to try it out themselves. ZombiU has similar appeal, people are curious.


11. Killer apps: Miiverse, TVii - Lol.

So you want to marginalize WiiU's positive points, and not address the weaknesses of the competition? Sorry to say, but the counter-arguments you provided are pretty weak. "Lol"? I mean, what is that for an answer? If you dont know how to address what I wrote, then don't address it.


One more thing about the "core" gamer, whatever that is.
Nintendo's first and second party titles attract all types of gamers.
Many were interested in exclusive games like Xenoblade, Zelda, etc.
but didnt bother buying the Wii because it wasn't in HD. This is no longer a problem.

We also see Nintendo making publishing deals with 3rd parties for exclusives like Bayonetta2, Wonderful 101, MonsterHunter, etc.
To miss out on some great games because of the brand of the console is childish.

 

[kagemaru]

Yeah, I would have expected a little bit more common sense voting. Even if you are MS/Sony fan its plain to see the advantages the WiiU will have

So wait, if we didn't pick the Wii-U, we have no common sense?

1. Larger user base At the start, yes, but we saw how much that helped the 360 against the Wii
2. Three E3 appearances (more exposure) This can very easily be a negative since that would also make the Wii-U "old news" compared to the newer kids on the block.
3. More games available. At the start, yes. However I think most would be looking at overall support which the Wii-U is already lacking.
4. A year to iron out all the kinks to distribution channels, online, SDK kits, marketing etc. Many of these shouldn't be kinks to begin with. MS and Sony have had an entire generation to work out such kinks, so I'm not sure this really applies.
5. One or two AAA 1st Party titles for Xmas 2013 There's a good chance MS and Sony will have one or two 1st party titles for their launch.
6. Friendly ecosphere for indie developers This could apply to the other systems as well, but with more performance and easier tools. It's too early to use these assumptions as a bullet point for any one of the three consoles.
7. Patching that wont break developers financially Again, same as your ecosphere comment, this may apply to the other two as well.
8. Inexpensive dev kits Not sure what this has to do with winning next gen.
9. Mass market games: 2D Mario, Nintendoland, Legoland, Skylanders, Wiifit, Karaoke, etc. All 3 companies have mass market games to offer, this isn't a Nintendo exclusive.
10. System Sellers:
Nintendo land, the type of game that sells through word of mouth.
2D Mario, a proven system seller
ZombiU, bringing back sorely missed survival horror. Isn't it too early to label anything as a system seller? Especially in the case of Nintendo land since I really don't think it has the mass market appeal as Wii Sports.
11. Killer apps: Miiverse, TVii Again, same applies to the other systems if you think multi-media functions count as killer apps.

Plus, recent Neilsen ratings has WiiU trending in the top 5 most wanted electronic device.
And Wii is actually trending closely behind to the 360 and PS3. Which means general population sees this as a new console. It's nothing new for new systems to track high. So what are you going to say if the 720/PS4 track higher than the Wii-U next year? That's a very realistic possibility.

Sony
Sony has a problem that their credit ratings are getting hit: Will developers trust Sony?
Vita is not doing so hot: Will developers trust Sony? Really? You question developers trusting Sony (twice) over factors that probably have little impact on the console business. What does Sony's credit rating have to do with publisher support? How has Sony's history with handhelds (PSP) negatively effected support for the PS3? (Hint: it didn't) What publishers know is the Playstation brand is still strong in gaming and that many gamers will flock to Sony's next system. No different than a system from Nintendo or MS. Signs point to them being much smarter with the PS4 than they were with the PS3. So considering how well they did with the PS3 with all the obstacles they faced, I think they'll be just fine with the PS4.

Microsoft
Will be aggressive in the US, and probably in the EU. But not capturing Japan will always keep them 2nd or 3rd place in sales. So what are their chances in doing so? You really think not capturing the smallest console market will effect any company's place in the console race?

Clearly Microsoft is making a Jack of Trades, box, that might end up being Master of None. How are they going to market this machine? To who? What about reliability issues? Many gamers might be hesitant to buy an Xbox3 because of defective launch 360 units. This can also plague the PS4 depending how complex they made it. How is it clear that MS is making a jack of all trades, master of none box? I'd love to see this evidence that is apparently so clear. Contrary to what some believe (like you), the gaming side of a system does not have to suffer because the company wishes for the machine to support multiple functions. Would you say the 360 suffers as a gaming machine because I can watch Netflix, Hulu, go on the internet, load up Gamespot/IGN, etc.?

Also, I think a $1 billion dollar mistake will teach any company a lesson. Reliability is the least of my concerns with the 720/ps4. Why would MS work towards improving reliability just to throw it all away by making the same mistakes again? I agree that some consumers would be hesitant to buy the next xbox early on due to the issues with the 360, but that's exactly the perfect reason why they wouldn't take that chance.

Both consoles will have big titles from third parties coming in out in 2013. Sony also has big titles planned. So we have a situation where the cheaper PS3/360 will be competing against PS4/Xbox3. Nintendo basically starved their fans, and an HD upgrade from the SD Wii is big noticeable difference in quality. The PS4/Xbx3 will go from HD to HD. This is no different than Sony releasing titles for the ps2 after they launched the ps3. If either console offers BC, it's even less of a factor. The reality is the cheaper PS3/360 will be directly competing with the Wii-U more than the PS4/720.

You act as though starving your fanbase is a good move when all that does is leave an opportunity for your fanbase to jump to another console where they can still find a regular flow of content.

Last, you're making the same mistake as so many other people, including Reggie. Simply moving to "HD" isn't some magical goal post as you make it sound. Even with two consoles in HD, there can still be clear differences in the quality of what we see no the screen. This is why it's always annoyed me when Reggie was asked about performance questions and he would simply say something along the lines of "It's HD out of the box". Well as we can see with the Wii-U's ports, there's far more than just hitting that resolution to make things work and look great.

Marketing
How long will they need? 5 months? Reveal at E3 and sell for Xmas 2013? What happens if they need to launch in 2014? Will either console catch to up WiiU sales after missing 2 Xmas's? You're getting ahead of yourself. There's little to no chance the Wii-U will have 2 xmas' alone and there's a good chance both will launch at the end of next year. You talk about marketing as if Nintendo hit it out of the park with the Wii-U when this has been one of the most tame launches in years. I have plenty of Nintendo loving friends and while some have picked up the system, I just don't see the level of excitement that I saw for the Wii.

You also ignore the fact that it's a better marketing move to reveal and launch within a single year. You build up excitement and launch when the interest is hot. It's very easy to argue that spreading out your reveals and coverage of a system stagnates interest and leaves a big window for something else, something newer, to grab the consumer's attention.

Launch games
How many will they have? Or will they rely on 3rd parties that probably will supplying the same titles to the WiiU. So what's the big exclusive franchise title that will sell units like Mario for either of them? Microsoft will definitely try to use Kinect2. Will core Xbox gamers be happy with that? So far it seems like the Wii-U is lagging behind the PS360 with support, but you think that will suddenly turn around with games scheduled for the PS4/720? Even IF these games appeared on the Wii-U, that version would surely be the inferior port. Also who cares if MS release some Kinect games at launch, would that mean there's nothing for us core gamers? Where does this idea come from that you need to only support one group of gamers to satisfy them?

Also, you're mistaken if you think any console needs a Mario-level game to sell units. History has shown that if you don't need a AAA premiere title to sell systems at launch. You just need good prices and a solid line up. There was no Halo at the 360's launch and it was still hard to find a system for ~5 months. If there is a good line up, it would be a waste to push out a Halo or an Uncharted at launch. It's a better business move to hold on to those IPs for at least a year. That way more polish and time can be applied to your showpiece title and it can be used to spur sales the following xmas season when the launch hype has simmered down.

Then we have the historical view. The least powerful gaming device sold the most.
From portables to consoles. You're really reaching with this one. The Saturn didn't win the 32-bit generation, the Genesis didn't win the 16-bit generation, etc.

In light of all those factors, are people saying that a jump in power will position either the Xbox3 or PS4 in the number one and two spot? No, I think they'll be either 1 or 2nd because it looks like they will be receiving better software support and gamers follow where the games are.

I think this topic can make for an interesting discussion. However I find it ironic that your post lacks all kinds of logic after commenting on the common sense of others.

 

[TheLump]

"Winning" can be taken as 'most units sold' unless declared otherwise. A more accurate measure would be consoles in use, but that's hard to come by, so total sold including repeat sales to existing customers as replacements or second consoles has to be the metric of choice.

This race may become very complex next gen. What if MS release a set-top box that runs some XB games, or if it runs the same games at a lower quality - does each STB sold count as an XB3 sold? What if Sony release PS4 and a dumb game-streaming consolette that allows PS4 games to be streamed over Gaikai - does the dumb box count as a PS4 sale?

Assuming we just get three discrete under-the-TV boxes though like previous generations, I currently doubt Wii U will do at all well. My guess is something like GC/XB, with 25 million over its life. Okay, maybe more than 25 million if we consider the gamer market has increased overall since last gen, but it'll be a small fraction. Maybe an amazing title will appear with the draw of Wii Sports, but I'm not seeing that potential in the tablet. It doesn't play Wii games with any improvement, so short of their existing library on the one console instead of two, there's little incentive for Wii owners to value Wuu over PS360 as a new HD console. That means its tapping into the same gamer base as before, for which I question if Wuu will get ports. It currently offers negligible install base for developers to care about targeting, and given ports aren't particularly easy as many were hoping assuming more power than PS360, there's little economic sense in targeting Wuu beyond launch titles when owners are looking for anything to play. Going forwards, porting XB3/PS4 games to Wuu wont' be easy or cheap either, so it'll likely miss out on many AAA titles.

I'm just not seeing the USP or value of Wuu to Joe Consumer or Joe Gamer. It's key strength is its small form factor (slightly mussed up if you add an external HDD) and low-power, which isn't a priority for anyone. Joe Hardcore will wait for and eventually get PS4 or XB3 in 2013/14/15. Joe Mainstream will swap over eventually 2015/16/17. Joe Cheapskate will pick up a really cheap XB360 or PS3 2012 onwards. Jenny Waggler will buy a Wii if she doesn't already own one. Joe Nintendofan will get a Wuu for his Nintendo franchises, like he bought GC and N64. Otherwise there's just no big strength to Wuu to appeal to a significant demographic IMO. I don't think Nintendo's execution of the tablet controller is enough.

All fair assumptions/opinions. I think the main point we all have to remember is we just dont know how popular things like TVii (i hate typing that) will be, or the novelty of "sharing" streamed videos from the 'Pad to the TV. Those things seem pretty impressive to an average consumer and form a big part of Nintendo's advertisement of the system. It looks great, makes people say "huh, cool" and think they're getting somthing different. Sure, it can be done with an iPad and a TV but Average Joe isnt going to bother setting that up. WiiU does that out of the box (except TVii.....apparently next month) I also think the web browsing aspect is quite important. Most people have an iPad/tablet/phone/laptop in their hands nowadays when watching TV and the WiiU can capitalise on that desire to have info at your fingertips. By all accounts the WiiU browser is stellar and very responsive so its nice and simple to use. Nintendo can also capitalise on the desire to have a universal device so we don't have to fiddle with remotes to change channel, switch between playing games and streaming movies etc. It might not seem like much to techy people, but it's all novelty to Average joe and his family - at least thats the impression I got from peoples reactions to Nintendo's reveal/re-reveal/re-re-reveal/adverts.

Never underestimate the novelty factor, is what I've learned from the last decade of tech. I'm not saying it definitely will succeed, but I see plenty of reasons not to write off just yet.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The console is not intended just for casuals. Thats what you want it to be.
Its a console for everyone.

But it that respect it's flawed. Everyone is going to mostly include people who already own a console. Everyone else isn't that interested at this point. Unless Nintendo can reach them with the tablet, they aren't viable buyers. Which means Wuu's potential customers are Wii owners and PS360 owners and potential PSWii60 owners. They clearly aren't going to sell many to existing PS360 owners because they console doesn't provide much beyond their existing console. There isn't an obvious upgrade path for Wii owners either. And hardcore gamers will buy PS4/XB3, and casual gamers might go who-knows-where. Without a strong focus on casual gaming, can any console really land them in the same way Wii did? I'm currently inclined to think you either sell to the core gamer, or the casual. Maybe something like Kinect in the box could enable XB3 to sell to both, but you'd still need relatively powerful hardware to attract the core gamers away from their existing consoles.