Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[ERP]

Never underestimate the novelty factor, is what I've learned from the last decade of tech. I'm not saying it definitely will succeed, but I see plenty of reasons not to write off just yet.

There was an interesting piece in one of the mainstream web magazines after the WiiU announcement, the core of the point was that what made the Wii's novelty so salable was that it's value was obvious to anyone form a 10 second video clip, and they felt the tablet doesn't sell the same way.

I tend to agree, but then I didn't get the Wii either and I wouldn't own one if a friend hadn't given me one.

Nintendo will sell out over XMas if they don't they are in real trouble, they will probably win the sales battle for Yr 2 because they won't be supply constrained and their competition will, again if they don't they have problems. It's sustaining sales beyond that where I think they will struggle.

 

[kagemaru]

But it that respect it's flawed. Everyone is going to mostly include people who already own a console. Everyone else isn't that interested at this point. Unless Nintendo can reach them with the tablet, they aren't viable buyers. Which means Wuu's potential customers are Wii owners and PS360 owners and potential PSWii60 owners. They clearly aren't going to sell many to existing PS360 owners because they console doesn't provide much beyond their existing console. There isn't an obvious upgrade path for Wii owners either. And hardcore gamers will buy PS4/XB3, and casual gamers might go who-knows-where. Without a strong focus on casual gaming, can any console really land them in the same way Wii did? I'm currently inclined to think you either sell to the core gamer, or the casual. Maybe something like Kinect in the box could enable XB3 to sell to both, but you'd still need relatively powerful hardware to attract the core gamers away from their existing consoles.

Agree 100%. You can't market for both the casual and the core evenly, no matter what one side of your marketing efforts/appeal will suffer or be lacking. You're not going to sell a $400-$500 console to the casual market and at the same time, gimmicks alone aren't enough to win over core gamers.

I think MS/Sony's strategy works out pretty well here. Sell your last gen, cheaper, console to the broader audience and use profits earned from these older consoles to help offset the cost of launching and supporting the new high end console for the core.

 

[TheLump]

There was an interesting piece in one of the mainstream web magazines after the WiiU announcement, the core of the point was that what made the Wii's novelty so salable was that it's value was obvious to anyone form a 10 second video clip, and they felt the tablet doesn't sell the same way.

I tend to agree, but then I didn't get the Wii either and I wouldn't own one if a friend hadn't given me one.

Nintendo will sell out over XMas if they don't they are in real trouble, they will probably win the sales battle for Yr 2 because they won't be supply constrained and their competition will, again if they don't they have problems. It's sustaining sales beyond that where I think they will struggle.

It's possible. It's also possible that by that 2nd year the WiiU userbase (assuming it has two good years of sales behind it, like you suggest) will be very tempting to publishers/developers, notably the smaller ones or ones who are currently struggling. They might be in a situation
where that's two big of an audience to pass up at that point. That's part of the reason I think it will sell pretty well for the next 3 maybe 4 years.

That's all hypothetical of course, bet then so is everything we're talking about here

 

[MDX]

But it that respect it's flawed. Everyone is going to mostly include people who already own a console.

Oh yeah, I forgot there are no new kids coming of age to get consoles, new teenagers getting jobs to buy their own consoles, and adults and families interested in owning consoles for their new home theater systems.

So the entire gaming market is simply not growing?
That doesn't bode well for MS and Sony either.

 

[MDX]

I think this topic can make for an interesting discussion. However I find it ironic that your post lacks all kinds of logic after commenting on the common sense of others.

That is ironic indeed, seeing how you have not shown where my logic fails.
Please, enter the conversation.

I think most of you have been fooled to assume there are only two types of markets:
Core and casual. This is similar mistake to those who fall for the left / right side of politics.
No wonder you see difficulties in how markets can be expanded.
If you pay close attention you will see another demographic appearing called: Active gamer.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's possible. It's also possible that by that 2nd year the WiiU userbase (assuming it has two good years of sales behind it, like you suggest) will be very tempting to publishers/developers, notably the smaller ones or ones who are currently struggling.

But how will Wuu be any more appealing than PS360? If you're not targeting the high-end gamer on the latest hardware, there's an install base of millions of last-gen devices. PS360 will be cheaper than Wuu. It'll be almost exactly the same choice between selling to PS2/GC/XB or PS3/XB360. If the high-end scares you due to cost, create a title for the many millions of existing customers on the old hardware. What dev is going to target 20-30 million Wuu's in 2014 over maybe 200 million PS360s? If you are on a budget, why not target 80+ million Live customers using cheap XNA?

There are as I see it only two arguments in favour of Wuu. 1) The tablet controller is seen as a must have feature. 2) everyone abandons PS360 in favour of Wuu because PS360 are old and Wuu is new even if it's not offering anything substantially different. If neither plays out, what is the reason for Wuu ever selling or being targeted over and above PS360 and PS4/XB3?

Wuu is too close to last gen hardware in power and too close to next-gen hardware in time to have any relevance to either market. Just like Wii, only without the Wow factor. It's riding the Wii name more than anything.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Oh yeah, I forgot there are no new kids coming of age to get consoles, new teenagers getting jobs to buy their own consoles, and adults and families interested in owning consoles for their new home theater systems.

So the entire gaming market is simply not growing?
That doesn't bode well for MS and Sony either.

Okay. So all the new customers are going to buy Wuu and not PS3 nor XB360 nor Wii nor XB3 nor PS4. And that'll be how many new consumers by the time PS4/XB3 launches?

There's growth, but it'll fit the existing demographics of human interests. The core and casual sectors will grow the same amount. Wuu is still going to face the same competition even if the market...doubles in the next two years - what are Wuu's key selling points that people will pick it over PS360 or XB3/PS4, such that you feel it'll have a headstart that carries forwards for the rest of the generation? Hardcore won't buy Wuu just because it's got a few million more install base when PS4/XB3 launch. Cheap gamers won't buy Wuu. Wuu's headstart will likely be virtually nil unless something dramatic happens. It certainly won't be enough that the rivals won't be able to overtake it at this rate. XB360's brisk first-year sales weren't enough that PS3 couldn't catch up, and that also took Kinect to further bolster XB360).

 

[TheLump]

But how will Wuu be any more appealing than PS360? If you're not targeting the high-end gamer on the latest hardware, there's an install base of millions of last-gen devices. PS360 will be cheaper than Wuu. It'll be almost exactly the same choice between selling to PS2/GC/XB or PS3/XB360. If the high-end scares you due to cost, create a title for the many millions of existing customers on the old hardware. What dev is going to target 20-30 million Wuu's in 2014 over maybe 200 million PS360s? If you are on a budget, why not target 80+ million Live customers using cheap XNA?

There are as I see it only two arguments in favour of Wuu. 1) The tablet controller is seen as a must have feature. 2) everyone abandons PS360 in favour of Wuu because PS360 are old and Wuu is new even if it's not offering anything substantially different. If neither plays out, what is the reason for Wuu ever selling or being targeted over and above PS360 and PS4/XB3?

Wuu is too close to last gen hardware in power and too close to next-gen hardware in time to have any relevance to either market. Just like Wii, only without the Wow factor. It's riding the Wii name more than anything.

Well if that were 100% true no one would have bought the latest iPad or iPhone or incremental phone upgrade. Sometimes people just want something new.

In a year's time, what's the incentive to buy a 360 when it's replacement is round the corner? The average consumer isn't going to say "well, the RAM is faster and the CPU is beefier in the 360, so I'm not going to get a WiiU" they'll more likely go with the 'new experience' as they see it.

And from a developer's perspective , I'm not saying they'll stop developing for 360/ps3, but they certainly won't ignore a big hungry new market either.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If you pay close attention you will see another demographic appearing called: Active gamer.

Does Wuu appeal to the activate gamer above anyone else? And is the 'active gamer' anything other than a subset of the core gamer? These terms we're using are only broad classifications of 'gamers who'll buy a console to play traditional console games' and 'everyone else who'll buy a console to play other games like singing, jumping around, or partying about'.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

In a year's time, what's the incentive to buy a 360 when it's replacement is round the corner?

Because it'll cost half the price, maybe less? Because it already has a massive library including cheap games?

The average consumer isn't going to say "well, the RAM is faster and the CPU is beefier in the 360, so I'm not going to get a WiiU" they'll more likely go with the 'new experience' as they see it.

If that theory is true, why didn't XB360 sales stop when the new experience of PS3 appeared. People don't drop the od the moment the new comes out. People aren't that short-sighted! Products are viewed relative to competition and features. New cameras are released and yet the old ones can still sell well because the price is better value (eg. Canon's line of DSLRs)

And from a developer's perspective , I'm not saying they'll stop developing for 360/ps3, but they certainly won't ignore a big hungry new market either.

But they well might. If the market isn't that big, isn't that hungry, and it's a lot of effort to support it, it won't be supported. See Android as an example where hundreds of millions of devices are being ignored by iOS developers for exactly those reasons. And this is a self-reinforcing cycle. A lack of faith by the developers means a lack of faith from consumers means less hardware sold meaning even less reason to target the platform.

 

[Platon]

It's possible. It's also possible that by that 2nd year the WiiU userbase (assuming it has two good years of sales behind it, like you suggest) will be very tempting to publishers/developers, notably the smaller ones or ones who are currently struggling. They might be in a situation
where that's two big of an audience to pass up at that point. That's part of the reason I think it will sell pretty well for the next 3 maybe 4 years.

That's all hypothetical of course, bet then so is everything we're talking about here

Wouldn't they just develop for ps360 and their humongous market share?...

 

[kagemaru]

That is ironic indeed, seeing how you have not shown where my logic fails.
Please, enter the conversation.

I think most of you have been fooled to assume there are only two types of markets:
Core and casual. This is similar mistake to those who fall for the left / right side of politics.
No wonder you see difficulties in how markets can be expanded.
If you pay close attention you will see another demographic appearing called: Active gamer.

Did you not look at my bolded statements in your post? I would read over my last reply again, and take the time to comprehend my comments before jumping to conclusions or assumptions again.

Core and casual is a very generalized way of describing the market. Try not to insult the intelligence of people here by saying we don't understand how broad a gamer's taste or characteristic may be.

Also, in what way have I expressed difficulties in seeing how the markets can be expanded?

Last, what is this "Active gamer" you made up?

 

[TheLump]

Because it'll cost half the price, maybe less? Because it already has a massive library including cheap games?

it'll be £100? Or less? I'm not so sure. I'd expect by this time next year WiiU will be around the £200 mark for the basic pack. (regardless of Reggies claims of "no price drop".)

If that theory is true, why didn't XB360 sales stop when the new experience of PS3 appeared. People don't drop the od the moment the new comes out. People aren't that short-sighted! Products are viewed relative to competition and features. New cameras are released and yet the old ones can still sell well because the price is better value (eg. Canon's line of DSLRs)

Namely because the market was nowhere near saturated after only a year of Xbox 360 sales, or that the Xbox offered so much fresh new online experiences or that the PS3 wasn't exactly accessible at its starting price?? Come on, that's hardly the same situation as this time next year. I'm not saying 360 sales will stop, I'm just saying there's no more reason for people to buy a 360 next year than there is a WiiU, as you hypothesized. Yeah it'll be cheaper and have a bigger library of games, but I'd argue that could be outweighed for many by the knowledge it's replacement will be arriving within months and those big AAA titles start to shift to the new platform. Plus the WiiU offers a lot of unique possibilities will appeal to a lot of people, as I've said.

But they well might. If the market isn't that big, isn't that hungry, and it's a lot of effort to support it, it won't be supported. See Android as an example where hundreds of millions of devices are being ignored by iOS developers for exactly those reasons. And this is a self-reinforcing cycle. A lack of faith by the developers means a lack of faith from consumers means less hardware sold meaning even less reason to target the platform.

Sure. If the market isn't big or hungry. But I'm of the opinion it will be.

Not sure about your Android analogy, as that platform is being embraced pretty spectacularly right now. Might not be the best example although I understand your point. But like I said, imo it will be a nice big hungry market to target.

 

[TheLump]

Wouldn't they just develop for ps360 and their humongous market share?...

Of course they will. But they're also not going to just ignore a new market which by then will likely be a healthy size, imo. Why would they? Even if the WiiU is destined to fail in the long run - too many publishers were left with egg on their faces when they missed the Wii boat this generation to risk ignoring it for the next year or so at least.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

it'll be £100? Or less? I'm not so sure. I'd expect by this time next year WiiU will be around the £200 mark for the basic pack. (regardless of Reggies claims of "no price drop".)

I don't understand. You said: "In a year's time, what's the incentive to buy a 360 when it's replacement is round the corner?" If your budget doesn't extend to $300+ for an XB3, you could buy an XB360 for half the price.

I'm not saying 360 sales will stop, I'm just saying there's no more reason for people to buy a 360 next year than there is a WiiU, as you hypothesized.

What are the buying decisions on which people choose a console? Library, initial price, running price (cost of games), whether friends have the same console or not, novel experiences, online experiences, services and added functions like media, performance (hardware VFM), marketing. Any others? In a lot of those criteria I think Ps3 and XB360 trump Wuu.

Yeah it'll be cheaper and have a bigger library of games, but I'd argue that could be outweighed for many by the knowledge it's replacement will be arriving within months and those big AAA titles start to shift to the new platform.

I don't understand this at all. So people won't buy a $200 360 because it's SuperHD replacement is coming, but they will buy a $300 Wuu which is effectively a direct substitute? Whatever is negatively affecting the interest in PS360 must surely also be affecting Wuu, except perhaps among a rather naive section of the populace who just associate 'new' with 'better'. I don't believe many consoles are sold like that. They are a fairly substantial investment and the buying decision moderately informed, either by media, friends and family, or (God forbid) game store recommendations. I seriously doubt many in the market for a new games machine will ignore PS360 because they are old and choose Wuu. Certainly if they informed enough to know new consoles are just around the corner, they should be informed enough to know the value of the current consoles in comparison to Wuu.

Of course they will. But they're also not going to just ignore a new market which by then will likely be a healthy size, imo. Why would they?

Economics. If it costs too much to port and the returns aren't there, you don't bother porting. IIRC PS3 had a fair few titles not ported to it in the early days. If a developer doesn't believe the platform has legs, it won't make sense to invest in the toolchains needed to support it.

15 million units for Wuu in its first year would be good sales. That'll be less than 10% of the HD console market. Unless those gamers are voracious software consumers, I expect a lot of devs to ignore it. And a lot of devs have been 'burnt' with Nintendo consoles in the past. They can't compete with Nintendo's own franchises. Why spend money porting your AAA blockbuster from PS360 when the market mostly wants Mario games and Nintendo minigame collections? This may not be the case, but you have to convince the devs now (actually more like a year or more ago) to invest in the platform.

 

[Davros]

Because it already has a massive library including cheap games?

I dont think it has you know, according to wiki there are only 930 xb360 games

Last, what is this "Active gamer" you made up?

One who worships daily at the Altar of Gaming Goodness...

 

[babybumb]

I would be pretty damn worried about early next year sales if i were Reggie or Iwata. Wii was a success partly because of motion gaming but also price vs relevant competition. Next year PS3/Xbox will be very relevant. Software wise more relevant than Wii U.

Xbox or PS3 could go 199 with a few games anytime. In europe the 12GB PS3 is under 200€ now. Xbox 4GB could even go 149.. which is similar to Wii U basic.

Xbox 360 got all the hardcore buyers in the first year because it was exciting to them and big upgrage. PS2 wasnt getting any of the PC ports like true CODs. A lot of those will continue to wait for the next machines because Wii U dosent bring new software from anyone but Nintendo.

I just dont see Wii-only owning casual dropping $349 to a console+game when they can get something else for $150 cheaper. And this was 80% that made Wii sales not the Nintendo hardcore

They cant stumble out of the gates at all because dropping Wii U skus from PS3+360+PS4+720+PC platforms is just too easy if margins are not up to par.

 

[Davros]

Does the ps3 really have 12gb of ram, thats pretty good

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I dont think it has you know, according to wiki there are only 930 xb360 games

Versus how many on Wuu at the end of 2013? Also, as I understand it, that's disc-based games. There's another 551 Live Arcade games, and 2250 Live Indie games.

Does the ps3 really have 12gb of ram, thats pretty good

12GB flash.

 

[MDX]

Versus how many on Orbis/Durango at the end of 2013? Also, as I understand it, that's disc-based games. There's another 551 Live Arcade games, and 2250 Live Indie games.

Fixed.

If you want to bring that up, you have to address it for the other consoles as well.
Like I said, AAA games will come out for PS360 next year, not the Wii. The incentive to upgrade to the WiiU from Wii is stronger. Not to mention many people have invested in a lot of peripherals and controllers that they can use for the WiiU.