Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Rangers, Nov 21, 2012.

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Will Wii U be the best selling console over MS and Sony's offerings?

Poll closed Nov 21, 2013.
  1. Yes.

    7.9%
  2. No.

    92.1%
  1. babybumb

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    I predict Nintendo will ship around 0.5M in this quarter.

    I predict the NPD figures for January-March will be about 50% less than what PS3 did in 2007 at $599.

    PS3 2007
    January 244,000
    February 127,000
    March 130,000
     
  2. Squilliam

    Squilliam Beyond3d isn't defined yet
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    I just can't believe anyone in charge of that company can consider the Wii U to be a 'good' console release.
     
  3. wco81

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    3 million in 3 months?

    That's not disastrous is it? Question is can they sustain that rate. Not likely.

    I haven't checked it out but some people raved about the experience of how the screen controller is used in certain games. But Sony and MS will emphasize prettier graphics on the big screen, and ancillary things like Kinect.

    Their consoles may sell more in the launch window than the WiiU but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they don't sell as fast as their own predecessors. That's the theory that console business has peaked. Certainly neither will sell like the Wii. Perhaps not even combined.
     
  4. Ninjaprime

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    Really?

    You guys are hilarious. They've sold something like 1.3 million a month and you're all "Oh noes, what will they do!!!111?!?!"

    Let go of your hate for their lack of hardware.
     
  5. BRiT

    BRiT Verified (╯°□°)╯
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    We'll see how poorly they do in the next 3 months, which historically has been worse than the months leading up to the Holidays. We'll see how much of a cliff they jump off of.
     
  6. Rangers

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    Not really sure where to put this, but from EA's fiscal call:

    So EA totally ostracizing Wii U and saying it's not next gen as well. Ouch.

    It's getting really hard to defend their sales numbers, even with floods of supply vs every normal console selling out for it's first holiday.

    It did 13k in Japan last week vs 20k for PS3, a 7 year old console thats never sold gangbusters itself. It had a bad December in NPD around 1/3 of 360 with no supply impairments, and I cant even imagine what January will look like.

    And articles like this appearing...http://www.fastcompany.com/3005243/will-wii-u-join-gaming-graveyard http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-01-25-nintendos-wii-u-sales-struggle
     
  7. Ninjaprime

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    Of course sales are going to drop off a cliff for january, its the month after christmas. I suspect if sales are low enough to scare them, they will just ramp up advertising and sales ramp will follow. Their lack of advertising since launch is suspicious, perhaps they don't want to outsell demand this time, as they aren't making money on the hardware.

    Give it a year, if they haven't sold 6 million+, which I find highly unlikely considering they are over 3 million now, then they are behind PS3 and 360s first year and then maybe you go all doom and gloom on them. :wink:
     
  8. TheChefO

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    The stench of failure can be rapidly contagious. I wouldn't be surprised to see them fail to sell (not ship) 6 million after 12 months...

    Having said that, it is still the followup to the wildly successful Wii and is not supply constrained nor is it prohibitively expensive. It may take longer than a year before solid failure is tainted on the reputation of Wuu, but it is indeed destined to fail.
     
  9. Jabjabs

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    I just get the feeling that we are judging this machine a little too early in its lift time. Yes it could be a failure but it's not a guaranteed thing yet. I price drop here or there can help plus who know how well Xbox 3 and Ps4 will go, we have just assumed they are going to be big successes as well and yet if they are priced too high could be in the same boat as Wii U.

    Who knows maybe if they are priced high enough it could be the catalyst that sets Nintendo's sales off. I don't think they are doomed yet since we have yet to see them flex their software muscles yet and there is still the chance to convince the public yet of the game pad, they haven't made a Vita out of this just yet.
     
  10. wco81

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    Have their big franchises come out yet?

    I thought those were still to come. And isn't Japan's big buying season in March?
     
  11. Shifty Geezer

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    But Wii U is way behind the tech curve and far cheaper then PS360. Only 6 million in its first year when PS4+XB3 launch, without the power of Wiiness to sustain mass adoption, means long term projections are low. It won't be getting the next-gen software. 6 million in first year. 5 in second. 2 in third. It's hard for me to believe sales will increase over time without some clear enthusiasm.
     
  12. Ghostz

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    Nobody is judging this disaster early. Everyone is calling it as they see it: 7 year old consoles are selling better than new hardware. In what reality is that even a success? Consider this: do you think Apple's new hardware sells worst than it's old sh*t? It's why everyone who makes software is not calling it "next gen" but an extension of the current one that won't even get all the best games. That's the very definition of a failure if I ever saw one and it won't get better once you see the graphical leap that going to happen within the next year - trust me.
     
  13. Exophase

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    That they aren't making money on the hardware is a major failing in and of itself. The hardware should be profitable at that price point.

    It's never been clear to me what Nintendo really means when they say they take a loss or break even, if they're actually referring only to the cost per unit or are rolling in R&D. If it's the latter case it'd make more sense since it looks like Nintendo grossly overspent on it. And if that's true and they are in fact making back money on consoles sold then they'd definitely not want to artificially inhibit the number sold.

    Either way, it'd be pretty foolish to be anything less than aggressive in this fleeting window before the other consoles are out...

    NSMB U was a launch title, and despite the series originating on handhelds and being regarded as second tier in some regard it's probably a bigger franchise than the 3D Marios, even looking at consoles alone.
     
  14. wco81

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    I think the popularity of Wii Sports has been underappreciated in the success of the Wii.

    Most of the people buying up the Wii didn't care about the finer points of motion control or graphics performance. They saw the Wii, probably playing Wii Sports, at some gathering and saw that it was fun to pretend to swing a racket or bowl in your living room and got it.

    Doesn't seem like they have something like that yet.
     
  15. AlphaWolf

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    Maybe they need angry birds. It's the dominant player in the tablet market.
     
  16. Rangers

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    they shipped with a mario title at launch?

    are there even any "big franchises" in the works? Zelda doesnt actually sell that great, and good luck on the next one ever coming out (believe it's slated for 2016, which is about 2021 in Japanese developer time, which will be about 7 years after Wii U is discontinued)

    i guess theres pokeman (is this a thing on home consoles?) and mario kart. i just dont think anything will change the wii u's fate though, it's sales trends arent just bad, they're disastrous like nothing i've seen. it literally didnt even get a holiday bounce in europe, but actually continued to decline post launch.
     
  17. Entropy

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    The most interesting thing happening lately in the world of the WiiU was Nintendos conference call for the quarter ending the 31st of December.
    They had sold 3 million WiiUs to that date (pretty decent), but also adjusted their projected sales through the next quarter down to 4 million from 5,5 million. Projecting one million consoles sold during a quarter seems like a moving their position back strongly, and it is particularly interesting that Iwata emphatically denies that any price cut of the WiiU is imminent.

    It is telling that they sacrifice market penetration rather than suffer worse margins. Whether this is to appease investors or because they lack faith in the stationary console market, or for other reasons is not crystal clear though. Still, from my armchair perspective, this would seem to be a good time for Nintendo to be aggressive in order to become entrenched on the market, ensure 3rd party developer interest and thus better long term prospects for the WiiU and maybe even weaken the uptake of the upcoming competition. I'm sure they will take measures price wise, but it seems clear that this won't be the quarter for it, and it will cost them momentum. Momentum can be regained as proven by the 3DS, but they are still sacrificing at least 3 months here.

    I wonder what Iwata knows that I don't. It may be that they await pricing indications of their competitors in order to fine-tune their new pricing levels, but that is pretty much the only thing I can come up with.
     
  18. Arwin

    Arwin Now Officially a Top 10 Poster
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    It would be too soon. For Nintendo's 3DS issues, lowering the price would never have amounted to much if they hadn't also brought some big games to the market. The system needed both to get a substantial boost. I sneakily suspect though that the cost of the 3DS was also lower and if they took a hit on the lower price, it probably wasn't for long.

    So if they want to gain momentum with the Wii U, they will do something similar, only if they have the games to back it up, and a vision on how to lower cost on a relatively short term to make the device profitable again if they think they need to sell it at a loss temporarily.

    In general Nintendo's philosophy is to sell the hardware at cost or with profit, and it is a healthy one - if you keep R&D investment relatively low by not using too out of the ordinary, expensive components (even if the combination can still be very forward looking), then you don't have to worry about being the 'biggest player', you just try to keep making a profit from the market your product finds. Seems to me a very healthy business practice.
     
  19. Entropy

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    You may be right that they are delaying a price drop to coincide with strong software offerings to maximize the impact of the drop. Makes more sense than waiting for (inside) info on competitor pricing.
     
  20. dagamer

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    A cheaper console does little if there still aren't any games worth playing. As such, it's silly to expect a price cut before next year when at least a good chunk of stuff announced at E3 has been released.
     
    #280 dagamer, Feb 2, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 2, 2013
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