Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony doesn't.
I doubt Sony will ever release a portable game console (as we know it) again.

Nor do I. It doesn't make sense. They'll combine their gaming with portable devices like phones and tablets. I do wonder if Nintendo will release another portable gaming console. There may be room for one more dedicated handheld before that market is completely consumed by general purpose devices.

 

[Entropy]

Nor do I. It doesn't make sense. They'll combine their gaming with portable devices like phones and tablets. I do wonder if Nintendo will release another portable gaming console. There may be room for one more dedicated handheld before that market is completely consumed by general purpose devices.

It depends on whether it makes financial sense, obviously. They are free to make changes to licensing, distribution and so on, if need be. Along with controlling the hardware platform, that may be enough.
But it is no surprise really that Nintendo chooses to play it safe in terms of economical risk, even though any red-blooded technophiliac obviously wishes for bolder moves. And while they have a more diversified business, Sony is in a much more difficult situation than Nintendo financially. I can't see them sticking their neck out, not when they might have to compete with the bottomless coffers of Microsoft. (And if they're not profitable the upcoming generation, I can't see them hanging on to this line of business. The synergistic effects with other divisions are there, but much weakened with their exit from TVs.)

Microsoft are the only ones who have a background situation allowing aggressive moves in terms of hardware choices and pricing. On the other hand, while blocking Sony from moving into their personal computing turf was a viable argument for MS to get involved in game consoles back in the day, it is abundantly clear that Sony is no longer a threat, and that their cash cows are being attacked from other directions. How interesting is it, really, for Microsoft to battle for gaming console market share? When Sony is squeezed out, and they and Nintendo share the remains of the market, where will it take them as a company? They might as well be making intelligent refrigerators in "the battle for the kitchen".
Microsoft needs to look for new areas for growth.

I don't see stationary gaming consoles as an arena meriting heavy technological/economic risk taking any more. The potential payoff just isn't there.

 

[Entropy]

I should probably explain the last line a bit.
Back when the "battle of the living room" was interesting, it was not only about gaming, obviously, but about media consumption as a whole. This thinking is clear from the design of both the 360 and the PS3, with the PS3 serving the additional purpose of trying to establish Blu-Ray as the dominant media for hard-copy distribution of movies. They were designed as media hubs.

Back when current consoles were designed, and perhaps even at the time when the WiiU/Orbis/Durango were conceptualized, "smart" media purchases and playback were confined to computers and consoles. iPods and their ilk could play some media, but not serve as an effective platform for purchases. So the battle for console market share was also a struggle for share in the electronic music and video media market, potentially a much bigger and more lucrative business than video games alone.

That's all in the past now though.

TV-sets and low-cost Blu-Ray players offer both video streaming and recording without any outside hardware, and cell phones and other mobile units handle both purchases and playback. I personally have five different purchase platforms and eight (!) different devices that allow streaming. That's not counting the household as a whole.... I can't see why anyone would preferentially use a stationary unit, when mobile are more convenient, and mobile volumes has exploded far beyond console volumes and keep growing. Consoles can never hope to be anything other than a small niche player in the overall media consumption landscape. Thus, investing extra in achieving console market share doesn't make anywhere near the sense it did at the beginning of the century, or possibly even when Durango/Orbis was on the drawing board. That ship has sailed, and it is never coming back. The willingness to take risks depends on potential gain, and the landscape for potential gain has changed.

 

[Rangers]

Week 52 UK charts evidently show not a single Wii U title in top 40...

http://i.imgur.com/Pxv4P.png

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Wii games at 8 and 36. Vita's selling more software than Wii U!

 

[Ghostz]

LMFAO! Brits always had better taste anyway.

 

[Nesh]

Well....Vita's vanished during the holidays in my area. WiiU's still in stock.
BTW I think Nintendo hasnt done much to communicate the new console to the average Joe and parent who doesnt know much about games.
I see WiiU's in shops and its very easy to confuse them with a Wii.
People arent used to seeing a letter. Instead they are used to seeing a number or a different console name altogether to signify its a brand new console. The word Wii is more evident than the U letter next to it which looks like a symbol rather than a letter.
The employee at a shop was telling me that people were buying WiiU games thinking they were Wii games even though they had them at separate shelves. They were coming back complaining they didnt play on their console. At the exact time he was telling me this, some parents went to the WiiU shelf looking at games and asking about Wii.
The WiiUs they have on display dont look much different from Wiis. The console design is somewhat similar. And the games they have on display is usually Nintendo Land or Mario Bros. Which are still extremely similar in art and visuals to Wii games. The tablet is in most cases locked in a glass showcase and the games are playable with a standard Wiimote. So....people see it and sometimes dont notice its a new console
People are used to seeing a big difference between console generations. The difference is almost unnoticeable and lost with the WiiU although its there

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

I can't see why anyone would preferentially use a stationary unit, when mobile are more convenient, and mobile volumes has exploded far beyond console volumes and keep growing.

Because I get unlimited data from my home internet provider and only 2GB per month from AT&T Wireless?

So that leaves only using a PC or a console to consume media at the home, both of which are stationary and then simply goes down to ease of use of the interface (or any built in streaming option for TV, etc)

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

You could still use wifi though. Obviously not as convenient but I suspect it wont be too long before mobile connections will become flat fee as well. Here in Japan that is already the case with 4g. For your smartphone you pay 5~7000 yen a month for unlimited and for pocket wifi ~3500 yen a month.

Though I think most people would still preffer to consume media (movies) at home. Even on a 5'' screen watching a 2 hour movie isn't exactly relaxing. Even 10 ~ 12'' laptops are too small.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Because I get unlimited data from my home internet provider and only 2GB per month from AT&T Wireless?

So that leaves only using a PC or a console to consume media at the home, both of which are stationary and then simply goes down to ease of use of the interface (or any built in streaming option for TV, etc)

Why not use your home Wifi network on your devices? That wasn't entropy's point though. He was saying that that market was reason to invest heavily in the consoles. Now that noone has won the media service war and it's open with lots of players, there's no real reason to push a console tech-wise. The returns will be less as the box will be bought for its games only. That is, if it's not bought for its games, it won't be bought to provide other functions when other devices will do that for cheaper. So instead of Sony sinking a truckload of cash into a super powerful, lossy console to gain customers and install their media portal everywhere, chances are Sony will just create a more modest console.

 

[babybumb]

If the performance is close to gamecube or lower for the next year it would be all over. Not even Nintendo 1st party can help like seen from consoles previous to wii

3rd parties arent going give any leash to a underspecced Nintendo console that has slow sales. Even the current marginal support will be gone because Nintendo 1st party share is just too high of software sales for 3rd parties to bother. They need those resources to make ports between multiple consoles and pc

 

[Entropy]

So instead of Sony sinking a truckload of cash into a super powerful, lossy console to gain customers and install their media portal everywhere, chances are Sony will just create a more modest console.

Close enough.
Actually, I wouldn't say that risk aversion necessarily impacts performance per se, particularly for the upcoming generation, since what is clear now probably wasn't quite so clear when they were on the drawing board. What I am saying is that the involved companies are unlikely to go out on a limb from an economic standpoint, which for instance will likely impact preparedness to accept large initial losses on the hardware.

To some extent it will probably impact the target capabilities as well, as bringing a higher priced console to the market does increase risk to a degree. But creating a 200W console isn't seven times more expensive than a 30W console, in either R&D or manufacture, so the connection to performance isn't direct.

I merely wanted to demonstrate that none of the players have as strong an incentive for risk taking as they did before, and that this is probably even more true for Sony and Microsoft than Nintendo.

 

[liolio]

Well....Vita's vanished during the holidays in my area. WiiU's still in stock.
BTW I think Nintendo hasnt done much to communicate the new console to the average Joe and parent who doesnt know much about games.

I've been told by workmates that there were pretty interesting deals (in US wrt the psv).
I'm not sure it is good though, either Sony decides to take loss to start to get the system going or the shops decides to cut their margins for the sake of clearing their inventory.
Though I've seen plenty of WiiU everywhere in the Cincinnati area.

 

[babybumb]

Doomed articles popping up

http://bgr.com/2013/01/18/nintendo-wii-u-sales-crisis-295918/

According to Famitsu, Wii U sales slumped from a pace of 70,000 per week to just 21,000. The ancient PlayStation 3 sold the exact same number of units, which is nothing short of a debacle for Nintendo.

No matter how weak the Wii U sales are now, they are likely to get worse. The launch dates of key games seem to be slipping from March quarter to June quarter, including the important Pikmin, Wario and Wii Fit franchises. The Wii U now must depend on Rayman and Lego City in coming months.

The clock is ticking for Wii U. If consumers start smelling the scent of the grave emanating from the console just when Sony and Microsoft roll out their new gear, Wii U could face a sudden rejection in the market place by early summer. Nintendo needs some big new titles to revive its home machine very soon.

 

[wco81]

The same fate could befall the other consoles if their lineups are weak.

ETA. That and mobile devices attracting a lot of the money which would go to consoles and games.

 

[(((interference)))]

Unlikely, Nintendo is arriving late, to a party that started 8 years ago.

When MS and Sony new machines arrive next year, core gamers which make up a substantial bulk of the 150 million HD console users, will be looking to upgrade - regardless of the popularity of smartphones and tablet.

If the Wii U continues to tank, and Nintendo is not content with it being another Gamecube in the sales standings, how long would it take them to release a more effective competitor to Omnibox 720?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The same fate could befall the other consoles if their lineups are weak.

Nah. They'll be the new FIFA and COD boxes. Maybe one or other would shrivel up if the competition has a significant software advantage, but that's implausible. Wii U is wrong product, wrong time, wrong price. IMO Nintendo launched way too early, before the OS or games were ready, hoping to get Christmas sales instead of waiting for a March launch when they'd have finished their software (including OS) on could offer a better showing.

 

[Rangers]

Nah. They'll be the new FIFA and COD boxes. Maybe one or other would shrivel up if the competition has a significant hardware advantage, .

fixed for you

i agree though, neither box seems in wii u's class for disappointing.

 

[upnorthsox]

Sorry but I don't see how waiting until March would've changed anything except its first Christmas would've been head to head with the new consoles instead by itself.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Launching in March would mean actual software for the device and a fully-featured, working OS that isn't an embarrassment and delivers on promises. I'm not saying that would have saved the machine, but in my mind Nintendo were thinking of a March launch and then shifted it earlier, resulting in the issues Wii U now has.