Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[Broken Hope]

The most interesting thing happening lately in the world of the WiiU was Nintendos conference call for the quarter ending the 31st of December.
They had sold 3 million WiiUs to that date (pretty decent), but also adjusted their projected sales through the next quarter down to 4 million from 5,5 million. Projecting one million consoles sold during a quarter seems like a moving their position back strongly, and it is particularly interesting that Iwata emphatically denies that any price cut of the WiiU is imminent.

It's actually worse than that, they have shipped 3 million consoles, they have actually sold less than 2 million world wide, which means there's about a million sitting on shelves and in the distribution channels, which means they would have to sell a lot of that million before they are able to ship another million to hit their targets, I can't see them doing it with the current release lineup.

Thread showing the sales

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=510874

 

[Inuhanyou]

Nintendo has a games deficit, so its to be expected that they would not sell.

They have a brand recognition issue, an apathy issue, and a games deficit. How they managed to have all 3 of these right when they are supposed to be gunning the hardest for marketshare is beyond my understanding..maybe Iwata really does need to go.

 

[dagamer]

Nintendo has a games deficit, so its to be expected that they would not sell.

They have a brand recognition issue, an apathy issue, and a games deficit. How they managed to have all 3 of these right when they are supposed to be gunning the hardest for marketshare is beyond my understanding..maybe Iwata really does need to go.

Changing CEOs does nothing to solve Nintendo's current problem because any changes they make now will not have a serious effect for another 2 years. And every system launch is terrible. In fact, I think the idea of a "good" launch doesn't even exist. Realistically, you'd need a system to launch and large numbers of people to be interested in it for non-game reasons, which has never happened before (because launch games will always suck, any game that requires serious effort takes a year after launch these days).

New systems cost too much, have too few games, and there are always launch issues, which is why I think the first year should always be discounted and pretty much ignored when judging its long term health.

 

[TheChefO]

... (because launch games will always suck, any game that requires serious effort takes a year after launch these days)...

Correct.

Unless ... you drop hardware in your console which is pretty much a pc, then all a developer has to do is tweak the game to match the control interface and viola - launch lineup.

Getting back to Iwata, yes he should be fired.

How can he let Nintendo go from the surprisingly dominant position they were in with Wii, to the currently eminent failure they face with Wiiu?

At the bare minimum, he should have had his software team going gangbusters to produce games for launch .. years ago.

Pathetic.

On topic - Umm no.

Nintendo may not ever be in a position to produce a home console again depending on how they handle WiiU failure ...

They should still be able to maintain a healthy profit from 3ds for a bit until they transition into licensing and 3rd party developer.

 

[dagamer]

Correct.

Unless ... you drop hardware in your console which is pretty much a pc, then all a developer has to do is tweak the game to match the control interface and viola - launch lineup.

Getting back to Iwata, yes he should be fired.

How can he let Nintendo go from the surprisingly dominant position they were in with Wii, to the currently eminent failure they face with Wiiu?

At the bare minimum, he should have had his software team going gangbusters to produce games for launch .. years ago.

Pathetic.

On topic - Umm no.

Nintendo may not ever be in a position to produce a home console again depending on how they handle WiiU failure ...

They should still be able to maintain a healthy profit from 3ds for a bit until they transition into licensing and 3rd party developer.

There is really nothing the Wii U could have done to be as popular as the Wii. If that were your standard for a good CEO, then every company in the world would be rotating through them yearly. If you're going to have developers at the ready working on a new unreleased console, that means you're taking them off late current-gen games which are usually the best of the generation. You cannot have both (life is about doing the best with limited resources).

It will remain to be seen whether the performance gap between the Wii U and PS4/720 will be astronomical. I still maintain the fact that what killed the Wii in my eyes wasn't the sub-standard graphical capabilities, but the fact that it wasn't HD. You take Skyward Sword and run it at 1080p using the Dolphin emulator and it absolutely looks like one of the graphical games in the last 10 years because Nintendo understands great artwork far better than most studios ever will. But 480p on a 60" HDTV looks absolutely terrible!

 

[Squilliam]

The reason why I believe they need a new CEO or at least management is that they don't seem to understand 3rd parties and other people's perspectives. They likely genuinely think that their efforts with the Wii U are catering for 3rd parties when in reality they have boxed themselves into a corner. Either the Wii U is late or under powered, probably both when you consider it. The box itself could have been released 2 years ago and people would have been genuinely excited for it and it would have made Microsoft/Sony sweat a little in their corporate towers. I guess the problem with success is that you start believing your own crap, it took only a generation for Nintendo whilst Sony lost their way after two.

 

[Ghostz]

I agree, Nintendo needs to new CEO that understands markets are global. They are at a cultural deficit and seemingly can't keep pace of the rate change that's happening in the console space.

 

[liolio]

Honestly they messed up big time, not only the CEO got to move.

Squilliam nailed it, they started believing their own crap. I would go as far as saying that even the wii end life has been mismanaged...
They started working on crap like vitality sensor instead of continuing to providing the people that bought the device with new games and refresh of their strong licenses.

Imo they took their costumers for asshole that would buy whatever crap they would come with and let them without actual products to consume/buy... well the backslash were set to happen.

Pachter was right about them messing with time line for the refresh of the Wii too. 2010/11 would have been better, they may also have claimed some core gamers if the system had been decently specs, with the new PS/XBX being delayed it may had serve for 3 years, not too bad.

They messed up with the 3DS too, their fans and solid software saved them on that one (as well as Japan still strong interest in handled) but the "mistakes" on the product are imo baffling:
3d while a good idea was not ready for prime
hardware sucks
it lacks a second analog stick (nothing short of outstanding, so is the reaction of the fans to the add-on...)
It was too expansive and they had to cut price and made a loss =>amazing when you look at the 7" tablet shipping now.

Would the 3ds had delivered I would have bought one for my wife as an update for her DS Lite (well someone needs cheap excuses... sometime ).

The problem at Nintendo is that they haven't really in a competitive segment for a lot of time, they pretty much own their niche, as with the DS and used to go away with a lot of crap, it is a waste as the potential is there.

If they sold only 2 millions this fall, I'm close to think that the product is dead.

They put themselves in a shitty situation to say the least.

 

[trainplane]

If they fire the CEO, they also need to bring someone who isn't his protogege. Nintendo is probably full of Iwatas, laser focused on penny pinching that they don't seem to see where the medium is going. It's video games not audio games. They can still be innovative and Nintendo doesn't need to win the tech war, but at least be within 20% of the other guys so they don't look so dated in comparison and get 3rd party support. Nintendo bet big on motion controls being a game changer and won but they've misfired on their last two game changer initiatives, glasses free 3D and tablet controls. 3DS is doing fine, but not because of the 3D.

I don't know how long they plan to keep the Wii U but I'm hoping it is a short cycle and they bring out something more competitive.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I still maintain the fact that what killed the Wii in my eyes wasn't the sub-standard graphical capabilities, but the fact that it wasn't HD.

Oxymoron...

 

[dagamer]

Oxymoron...

If the exact same assets on a Wii were rendered at 720p (aka HD), even without all the fancier special effects that the 360/PS3 have, it would have been taken more seriously by 3rd party devs and they would have been fine. But to release an SD console in an HD world even back then in 2006 was a cold slap in the face and Nintendo is paying for it now.

 

[Squilliam]

They messed up with the 3DS too, their fans and solid software saved them on that one (as well as Japan still strong interest in handled) but the "mistakes" on the product are imo baffling:
3d while a good idea was not ready for prime
hardware sucks
it lacks a second analog stick (nothing short of outstanding, so is the reaction of the fans to the add-on...)
It was too expansive and they had to cut price and made a loss =>amazing when you look at the 7" tablet shipping now.

Would the 3ds had delivered I would have bought one for my wife as an update for her DS Lite (well someone needs cheap excuses... sometime ).

The problem at Nintendo is that they haven't really in a competitive segment for a lot of time, they pretty much own their niche, as with the DS and used to go away with a lot of crap, it is a waste as the potential is there.

They won essentially because they pulled a PS2 on their competition. They got their system out a year ahead of the competition and their completion really was a lot weaker than the sales in the previous generation would have otherwise indicated. The market fell out from under the PSP and better PMPs came out, the 3DS really just mopped up the rest.

 

[TheChefO]

There is really nothing the Wii U could have done to be as popular as the Wii. If that were your standard for a good CEO, then every company in the world would be rotating through them yearly. If you're going to have developers at the ready working on a new unreleased console, that means you're taking them off late current-gen games which are usually the best of the generation. You cannot have both (life is about doing the best with limited resources).

It will remain to be seen whether the performance gap between the Wii U and PS4/720 will be astronomical. I still maintain the fact that what killed the Wii in my eyes wasn't the sub-standard graphical capabilities, but the fact that it wasn't HD. You take Skyward Sword and run it at 1080p using the Dolphin emulator and it absolutely looks like one of the graphical games in the last 10 years because Nintendo understands great artwork far better than most studios ever will. But 480p on a 60" HDTV looks absolutely terrible!

It's called resource management.

They had a ton of extra cash which could have been used to :
a) invest more in the hardware for nextgen wii
b) invest in exclusive games for wiiu
c) invest in buying studio talent to make games for wiiu
d) all of the above

None of which would require diverting resources from Wii. It would however require that Nintendo did more than stuff the cash in the bank.

They deserve the failure they have coming their way.


And yes, it would have been great if they dropped even a hd7770 class gpu in Wiiu. Thus giving you 1080p wii games. That would have been the minimum I'd expect of Nintendo.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

If the exact same assets on a Wii were rendered at 720p (aka HD), even without all the fancier special effects that the 360/PS3 have, it would have been taken more seriously by 3rd party devs and they would have been fine. But to release an SD console in an HD world even back then in 2006 was a cold slap in the face and Nintendo is paying for it now.

AFAIK, there's nothing "physical" that prevents the Wii from having a 1280*720p output from its analog component connection.
The only reason for the Wii not being able to render at that resolution is CPU/GPU/memory performance, nothing else.

Hence the oxymoron.

It's called resource management.

They had a ton of extra cash which could have been used to :
a) invest more in the hardware for nextgen wii
b) invest in exclusive games for wiiu
c) invest in buying studio talent to make games for wiiu
d) all of the above

None of which would require diverting resources from Wii. It would however require that Nintendo did more than stuff the cash in the bank.

They deserve the failure they have coming their way.

^ This.
Upper management at Nintendo has to go. Everyone.
Maybe even Shigeru Myiamoto. I'm sorry to say this about an idol of mine but if he's content with the Wii U's hardware, then he's completely out of touch with the gaming market.

And yes, it would have been great if they dropped even a hd7770 class gpu in Wiiu. Thus giving you 1080p wii games. That would have been the minimum I'd expect of Nintendo.

Heck, a GPU like that, some 600MHz more in each CPU and a decent memory bandwidth would probably enable it to play lower-resolution Durango and Orbis multiplatform games.
Lower resolution textures, lower rendering resolution, just slap in FXAA instead of MSAA and call it a day for the port.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Two former Wuu exclusives are going multiplat, Ninja Gaiden 3 and Rayman Legends. I think that shows a lack of faith growing with publishers. There's just no financial sense in being Wuu exclusive, which of course means no exclusive content for gamers to want to buy Wuu other than Nintendo's, and the box loses more of a somewhat limited appeal.

 

[(((interference)))]

I think it's fair to say that, with the PS4 being announced in 12 days, and given the state of Wii U sales, lackluster future prospects, hard evidence that it isn't significantly more powerful than PS360 (from the GPU teardown), 9 people are going to be wrong.

 

[anexanhume]

Two former Wuu exclusives are going multiplat, Ninja Gaiden 3 and Rayman Legends. I think that shows a lack of faith growing with publishers. There's just no financial sense in being Wuu exclusive, which of course means no exclusive content for gamers to want to buy Wuu other than Nintendo's, and the box loses more of a somewhat limited appeal.

Rayman Legends is a loss, but I wouldn't consider Gaiden 3 a loss. It was released on both PS3 and 360 originally and then the "Razer's Edge" WiiU edition was essentially as Sigma was to 1 and 2. They added content, but also revamped the combat to be more in-line with previous Gaiden titles.

 

[sinox]

Two former Wuu exclusives are going multiplat, Ninja Gaiden 3 and Rayman Legends. I think that shows a lack of faith growing with publishers. There's just no financial sense in being Wuu exclusive, which of course means no exclusive content for gamers to want to buy Wuu other than Nintendo's, and the box loses more of a somewhat limited appeal.

Do you expect exclusives third party games for Durango or Orbis ?

 

[dagamer]

Do you expect exclusives third party games for Durango or Orbis ?

Are there really any major 3rd party exclusives anymore? As soon as Final Fantasy went multi-platform, that's when I knew that the days of exclusive games are pretty much over.

Also, this is the first time that major competitors of a console generation with similar performance characteristics are launching in the same year. It's not like the 360 which had a clear 1-year advantage for developers to get used to the system. I don't think we are going to see any clear favoring of one console or another and even fewer reasons to buy both systems.

 

[babybumb]

January NPD will be bad but just how bad?

It failed to sell over 500k in second launch month of December where sales are usually 5x normal months.. and should be even higher for a just launched product with no stock issues. If a platform fails to sell 500k in december it is basically dead

So its going to January with no pent up demand. 100k? No way. I pin to 70-80k which would be terrible for 5 weeks

Euro sales a dud