Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[Shifty Geezer]

Yes, the sold "more than PS360" argument isn't a good comparison as they were clearly supply constrained. Of course, selling more is still a Good Thing, but the first month is expected to be a sell-out to platform fans. Sony said they'd sell 10 million even without any games because of platform value. The first weeks are known quantities for Wii U sales. It's the subsequent interest I'm curious about considering availability and rankings - it doesn't look like it's that high. I'm thinking 3DS here. That sold out early on, and then plummeted until the price cut IIRC. Wii U is looking way too expensive alongside £125 PS3s (half the price!). Strong post-launch sales would show the value of the pad is there, whereas weak sales would show the pad hasn't as much draw and Nintendo hoped.

 

[wco81]

Haven't looked widely but testimonials on forums seem to be pretty positive.

Maybe the word of mouth will spread, which I believe was a huge part of the Wii's success, along with people getting to try out that system at social gatherings.

It is competing with a lot of other electronics toys though, so that should be taken into account more than console sales 6 or 7 years ago, when there weren't smat phones and tablets, which are commanding a lot of discretionary spending.

 

[babybumb]

Theres some scuttlebutt around the Nintendo fanboy scene that the worldwide sales are good. For example that it sold more than PS3 or 360 launch 4 weeks by a lot. If you put Japan, USA, and Europe combined with tons of supply, the absolute numbers may look good for now.

I still consider it damage control. Key fact is 360/PS3 were hard sold out for month+, and I cant imagine a $400 Durango wont be impossible to find either in late 2013. Then you have the Uk software charts which look horrible Wii U wise.

Unless December NPD is less than 500k it wont tell much. It should show numbers with supply

Gamecube
Nov01: 662560
Dec01: 573499
Jan02: 61685

 

[Arwin]

There's no telling what will happen. Way too soon to make any assumptions about it's future.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But we can determine it's present and what needs to happen (or not) to affect its future). eg. If it's not selling now, something will have to change. You can't go from a product that doesn't sell to one that does without changing the marketing and/or value. These short-term sales are about determining just that, just like 3DS (sold out, lost interest, needed a price cut to catapult interest) or Vita (sold out, lost legs, needs something to happen to increase sales).

 

[Inuhanyou]

I always said Wii U should have started at 250 with one SKU, that would have brought them home sales in droves.

What Nintendo did however is split the base and confuse casuals. I don't think that was a smart move even though i see much potential in my basic unit.

I don't trust Nintendo with their store services, so it'll be retail only for me. The basic was perfect for people who aren't going to be downloading Virtual Console games.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I don't think it's confusing costumers. The only real difference is storage and a certain company has been making the same models with different storage capacity for years and that never confused anybody.

The thing is propably just too expensive.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Too expensive and the complete opposite of the Wii which was about ease of use.

The WiiU doesnt make gaming more approachable... it makes it more complicated.

Where are the WiiU commercials showing grandparents playing bowling with their grandchildren? They dont exist. Nintendo needs full fledged IP in order to sell this console, but there isnt any full mario or zelda game out.

And as was discussed in the PS4 thread, if you cant demonstrate an obvious graphical improvement you wont motivate consumers to buy.

 

[Bagel seed]

Wii was the perfect storm for Nintendo. I'd say their chances to replicate that level of success with Wii U is extremely unlikely at this point. It was basically like Tickle Me Elmo when it came out. Whatever it was, parents and kids wanted it regardless if it played video games or was made of polyester. Of course nobody cares about Elmo much anymore

I've seen the argument made that if it was called Wii 2 instead of Wii U people would've made the connection better. Maybe so, but they've released U way too late anyways after the hype and sales have basically completely tapered off. Now if in 2010 they had released Wii 2 HD with 2 sets of wearable suits that you wore which zapps and massages you they could've been onto the next big thing (read gimmick).

 

[Entropy]

I always said Wii U should have started at 250 with one SKU, that would have brought them home sales in droves.

Could they have supplied more though? There is little point in selling at lower cost than necessary if you still sell pretty much all you make.

From what I've seen around here, they may have overpriced somewhat in relation to supply, but not by much. And with 2 million consoles sold, $50 higher is $100 million higher profit, which is sure to please any shareholder or corporate bean counter. From a promotion aspect though, it is probably better if you (just) sell out.

We can already see prices drop after Christmas, but that is probably retailer margins gravitating towards normal. Sales momentum will dictate when there will be a price cut from Nintendo themselves. It will obviously happen before any competitor launches, but my hunch is that they will do it much earlier. There is little doubt that you will see your 250 price point met quite soon.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I could have bought a dozen of them two weeks after launch from best buy though I've heard other regions had more limited supply. And if they drop price within the first 6 months that is definitely a sign of weak demand.

 

[Ghostz]

Well, the people that was expecting a "Wii" like level of success for the WiiU was always headed for a hard landing anyway. Anecdotal as it may, I'm not seeing any of the excitement surrounding the WiiU like the Wii had. It could be a sign of things to come in the traditional console space but I'm going to go ahead and call the WiiU a massive flop even this early. Nobody seems interested in it besides the Nintendo hardcore and everyone else is simply waiting to see what Microsoft does.

 

[Squilliam]

Well, the people that was expecting a "Wii" like level of success for the WiiU was always headed for a hard landing anyway. Anecdotal as it may, I'm not seeing any of the excitement surrounding the WiiU like the Wii had. It could be a sign of things to come in the traditional console space but I'm going to go ahead and call the WiiU a massive flop even this early. Nobody seems interested in it besides the Nintendo hardcore and everyone else is simply waiting to see what Microsoft does.

I watch a technology program called 'Click' on BBC and they haven't paid any attention to it at all. I've been waiting for them to devote some real time to the device but as far as I can tell all they did was mention it briefly and that was about it. I just haven't seen any attention on it from local TV shows or the news but I distinctly remember the daily news covered the PS2 launch and the Wii launch quite extensively and even the Xbox 360/PS3 got a lot of coverage and yet nothing for the Wii U. Maybe this is a sign that the casual audience in the news media is over the Wii?

 

[Entropy]

I could have bought a dozen of them two weeks after launch from best buy though I've heard other regions had more limited supply. And if they drop price within the first 6 months that is definitely a sign of weak demand.

It's a sign of weak demand at that price point. As the 3DS effectively demonstrated, if you change the price, consumers will reconsider the value proposition. But of course dropping prices affects profitability, so there is a balance to be struck. You need sufficient volume to maintain market awareness, and to provide a valid platform for software development. Nintendo has designed the WiiU to allow a flexibility in pricing, so there is every chance that they will take advantage of that. That's not to say that they will price it to achieve market leadership, given where their pricing started out it seems they're using the advantage of being the first out of the gate this generation to maximize profitability rather than aiming to flood the market with their device in order to maximize early market share.

If their financials had been better lately, they might have chosen differently.

 

[AlphaWolf]

It'll sell better at a lower price point, but I don't think the 3DS is a world beater even at its new price point. Not exactly a shining example to follow.

 

[tuna]

Where are the WiiU commercials showing grandparents playing bowling with their grandchildren? They dont exist. Nintendo needs full fledged IP in order to sell this console, but there isnt any full mario or zelda game out.

Do you not count Super Mario Brothers U as a full mario game?

 

[joesiv]

Yes, the sold "more than PS360" argument isn't a good comparison as they were clearly supply constrained.

The Xbox was, but I recall the PS3 was easily obtainable during the launch window. Anecdotally, a lot of the launch systems were snatched up by resellers hoping to cash in big, as people did with the Xbox360 and PS2 prior.

 

[AlphaWolf]

The Xbox was, but I recall the PS3 was easily obtainable during the launch window. Anecdotally, a lot of the launch systems were snatched up by resellers hoping to cash in big, as people did with the Xbox360 and PS2 prior.

Ya you can buy a 32GB off ebay for $400, no tax free shipping. Not exactly a high margin resale. I'm sure there's people trying to get more but it doesn't seem like a prosperous venture at this point.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The Xbox was, but I recall the PS3 was easily obtainable during the launch window.

Dunno. They were supply constrained around the world so postponed their European launch by months. Ps3 could have sold more units in the launch week if if had more available. The following months PS3 wasn't selling (at that price!), but I'm not making that comparison yet as we don't have suitable data for Wuu.

 

[Entropy]

It'll sell better at a lower price point, but I don't think the 3DS is a world beater even at its new price point. Not exactly a shining example to follow.

It's not a world beater, but it achieves both having a market presence and being a viable platform for developers. In a changing market, it left Nintendo enough room to maneuver, and survive.

Sony doesn't.
I doubt Sony will ever release a portable game console (as we know it) again.
We'll see how their stationary effort does, but the fate of the Vita is bound to give them pause. If Orbis fails, for whatever reason, raise your hands all who believe Sony will keep pumping money into game consoles.
Nintendo designs and prices for survival, they have no WinOffice monopoly to fall back on, and can't shift their business to image sensors or whatever. They have to carve a viable business out of what they have.