AMD: Southern Islands (7*** series) Speculation/ Rumour Thread

[Entropy]

Imagine you bought a Ferrari for $200.000 a few months ago. Now there's a new Porsche on the market - and Ferrari decides to suddenly lower their prices by 25%. Very bad decision as

(a) it's basically like admitting that the Ferrari is inferior to the new Porsche and can't compete at the "old" price.

(b) people who bought the Ferrari at the original price will feel screwed over - a lot of unhappy customers right there.

(c) observers might deduce that it's not worth buying a new Ferrari at all - as fragile price stability basically destroys the feeling of "value" attached to a purchase.

(d) Peope interested in buying a new Ferrari in the future won't buy one right after market introduction anymore - but instead wait for a price cut. Results in a general slowdown of sales.

Only PC tech-fetishists that for some reason base their self esteem on their PC purchases can be anywhere close to such reasoning concerning graphics cards. And they would have to be immature on top of that.

I'd assume that the overwhelming majority of buyers make their purchase decisions based on percieved value. If you're a tech enthusiast who buy for gadget appeal, you'll question why the HD7870, using similar PCB and other components as the HD6870 costs twice as much. That would imply that AMD at least charges four times as much for the actual, same size GPU. If that is due to disastrous yields, then time will fix that. If it is due to wanting to increase their margins however, those who count themselves as technological cogniscenti will balk at paying a huge marginal increase in money for a small marginal increase in capabilities, mostly achieved by switching lithographic process. They're getting fleeced, and know it.

Tech enthusiasts is one target group, the other being PC game players. These are the ones who uppgrade because the game(s) they want to play start to run uncomfortably slow, either because new game code is more demanding or because they changed display to something bigger, making limited rendering resolution more apparent. When faced with their purchase options, they can either pay up or decide that they'll play other games, switch to console gaming, or simply conclude that PC gaming isn't for them and spend their time and money elsewhere.

No matter which category you're looking at, higher prices reduces your total customer base. It may or may not be profitable anyway, short term. Depends on just how much sales drop. Long term, reducing your customer base is a bad move, but given the outlook for discrete GPUs, the short term may be all that counts.

From a personal perspective, I find the HD7 range to be quite attractive products. However, in the last month I've blown $2500 on man-toys (ensuring some future restraint...) but no graphics card, in spite of always having bought at least one or two per process generation in the past.
The value simply isn't there.

 

[Broken Hope]

Ever considered that price drops may not be conducive to building a brand?

Ever considered that your main competitor is seen as the better brand by many, with a faster high end card available and generally considered to have better drivers and dev support?

It's the people who already know about the AMD brand that are buying your 7900 series atm since going by reviews you'd have to be crazy to weigh up both cards then buy the more expensive one that is also slower.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Ever considered that your main competitor is seen as the better brand by many, with a faster high end card available and generally considered to have better drivers and dev support?

It's the people who already know about the AMD brand that are buying your 7900 series atm since going by reviews you'd have to be crazy to weigh up both cards then buy the more expensive one that is also slower.

hardly an accurate or complete assessment.

Dave has the knowledge of how its selling and you(we) dont, yet your quick to jump on the condescending phrasing.

So what does lowering price do to address anything in your ill thought out posts... oh thats right nothing

Spoiler

am i doing it right?

 

[Alexko]

By the way, Newegg now has two SKUs at $530 (Gigabyte & HIS) plus one at $540 with free shipping (Sapphire) vs. the MSRP of $550.

So prices are going down a little.

 

[UniversalTruth]

Dave has the knowledge

This is one hell of an argument, by the way. I will say that doesn't mean the guys over there are using this knowledge in the best (or right) possible way.

The price drops at newegg are still negligible, so hardly to make any difference.

 

[CarstenS]

a) what if it is (and most likely)? Now prices have to remain high just because some silly person with too much money and weak character needs some artificial price constant to keep him/her feel/thinking he/she did a good purchase?

Yep. A „new“ product would alleviate that though. Think of 9800 GTX instead of 8800 GTS/512 or HD 4890 instead of HD 4870, with the latter having earned the bargain title in the 2008 price war already.

 

[Rangers]

I think they already tried to price Cayman to match GTX 400-series, but 500-series forced their hand. They want to make people think that these are worth the high price. AMD's "crown jewels" like was mentioned in their analysts day. I'm pretty certain that the manufacturing side does not explain the increase. They now have very strong market availability across their entire 7000-series range. Curious to see how things unfold. I haven't been a fan of the pricing, but I think that 7850 and 7750 are good value and positioned attractively.

Even that's a little debatable. 7850 is faster than 6870, but not insanely so. However towards the end you could often get 6870's crazy low, I want to say even as low as $120, but at least 150. Spectacular card for the price.

Going up a little, 7850 i usually a little faster but pretty close to 6950. Again IIRC towards the end those could be had for 200-220 after sales/rebates. I'm not dead sure of that but I seem to remember it.

You get certain advantages with 7850, 2GB RAM (compared to 6870 anyway), more forward looking, better overclocking, but you also pay another few bucks for it.

 

[lanek]

I think 1000 would be the highest they would want to put their cards through without putting any extra effort into binning. Any more and they have to raise stock clocks just to safely get all their cards stable. OEM models are always clocked conservatively.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2228094

The worst overclock that was achieved was 1015 mhz. Alot of the cards hit 1100+ but when was the last time a videocard maker left 0 overclocking room in their cards. I think 1050mhz would piss alot of manufactures off selling OC cards, because most of their OC models would have a hard time selling with a 50 dollar premium and no difference in clock speed.

And this is all assuming Nvidia doesn't do the same thing and raise the clock speed of their models. The gtx 680 has very good overclocking ability as well.

The best thing AMD can do without stepping on too many feet is lower the price moderately($479 for a 7970, $399 7950, $329 or $299 7870) and get the hd8xxx out later this year and be more aggressive with the clocking. Selling at the same price or higher is only going to make them lose marketshare. The gtx 560 ti was the worse performer than the 6950 and it killed the 6950 for sales because it was slightly cheaper(than the 1gb model anyways).

I will not base myself on this list, more reviewers have made separate overclocking reviews for the 7970, and the 3 link i have seen is not present, most was really conservative when they have test the card. Most have been send with initial bios, and the driver overdrive was not working correctly on the driver press release.
First exemple i can find as i have the link: Guru3D just set 1052mhz on the review.... Things change in his overclocking guide. http://www.guru3d.com/article/radeon-hd-7970-overclock-guide/



This is why you see result all over the place, when i have yet to seen a card who dont go to 1100 just by using the overdrive.

 

[Gipsel]

You get certain advantages [..] but you also pay another few bucks for it.

So where is the problem?

If the advantages are worth the added price is decided by the market after all.

 

[liolio]

7850 starts to shine when OC'd, that's how I always look at these, because I would OC them. I'm not a huge fan of the 7770, it looked quite bad compared to the outgoing models unlike the 7850. However I haven't really looked at retail 7850s and what type of boards and possible OC room/restrictions they come with. The launch reviews said that the retail boards will be simpler/poorer than the 7870 board, which was used for the review units. I'd think there are some decent custom versions for that card also?

I feel the same about the 77xx cards, like they missed the mark but not by much.
I only read the techreport review of those cards a few days ago and they perform way better than most reviews would let one think, most of the time the 7750 beats a gtx460. Point is raw average used in most reviews don't do them justice.

Still after not refresh in that segment since the 57xx and taking in account the techreport results I still think AMD sligthly undershoots the spec of these cards. Even a slight increase in specs would have been beneficial. Something like 12 cu for the 7700 and 9 for the 7750. The difference in clock speed could have been lesser too eventhough overclock can fix that.

As a costumer I'm in that segment, with all the stuffs I read about Amd drivers I may have wished for a bit more of a refresh in that range. I'm willing to see what NV offers as I'm a bit underwhelmed.

 

[Pressure]

As a costumer I'm in that segment, with all the stuffs I read about Amd drivers I may have wished for a bit more of a refresh in that range. I'm willing to see what NV offers as I'm a bit underwhelmed.

I'm sorry, not sure I get the last part

Why would a person who supplies or makes theatrical or fancy-dress costumes care about such a thing?

But on a serious note, you might consider elaborating on what you have read about the state of AMDs drivers and why you are underwhelmed.

 

[kalelovil]

Still after not refresh in that segment since the 57xx and taking in account the techreport results I still think AMD sligthly undershoots the spec of these cards. Even a slight increase in specs would have been beneficial. Something like 12 cu for the 7700 and 9 for the 7750. The difference in clock speed could have been lesser too eventhough overclock can fix that.

Such an increase in functional unit count would have increased power consumption.

To really appreciate Cape Verde you have to consider its positioning in the lucrative laptop market, where performance per watt is key and price of the GPU alone less so.

The desktop HD7750 consumes around the same power as the HD5670 and HD6670, based on Cape Verde's true predecessors Redwood and Turks. Take a look at the number of mainstream laptops using Redwood (especially) and Turks GPUs, Juniper and Barts mobile GPUs are a lot rarer.

Scaled-down (i.e. lowered clock speed or functional units fused off, depending on yield) Cape Verde GPUs should be easily adaptable into future mainstream laptop designs in place of Redwood and Turks. Their similar thermal envelope will mean the laptop makers won't have to go to the considerable expense of re-engineering their cooling systems for a higher GPU TDP. Even a scaled-down Cape Verde will be a massive improvement over Redwood and Turks based GPUs.

 

[Kaotik]

7750 performance is limited by powertune due lack of 6pin powerplug, turning powertune up improves it's performance significantly in most titles without overclocking

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Ever considered that price drops may not be conducive to building a brand?

Looking at how cards with G92 and then Juniper were sales champions (both being performance/price winners for their eras), I'd say the people purchase discrete graphics cards have become a rather educated folk.

Therefore, the people who actually purchase retail graphics cards will do it after seeing a couple of reviews, and not after watching a TV commercial. Let's face it: a graphics card won't change anyone's lifestyle, or the way we interact, or the way we look. It'll be kept inside an ATX tower.

If VIA/S3 came out with a graphics card that performs around a HD7870 for 120€ with decent driver quality, all it would need would be an adequate factory capacity and favorable anandtech/hardocp/tomshardware reviews for that card to become a best seller in 3 months (yes, PC vendors are a lot harder to move but we're talking discrete cards here, right?) .

With that in mind, it seems to me that performance/price sweetspots and driver stability are much. much more important than "brand value" for graphics cards.
If I'm not mistaken, that also used to be AMD's moto for many years.
As a matter of fact, I even remember reading how you played an important role in HD4850's success in convincing some higher-ups into launching that card with all sp units enabled - for that exact performance/price ratio advantage.


I think I've only bought ATI/AMD cards for the past 7 years (we're talking some 10 discrete cards total), largely because it offered me the best bang-for-buck options/features at the time of purchase.. but I will hardly hesitate in purchasing a nVidia card this year if they offer a better ratio for my pre-defined budget.


This talk of brand value just reminds me again how every IT-related company in the world seems to be desperately trying to pull an apple, whereas it seems pretty obvious to me that pulling an apple only works with apple's business and audience. It saddens me a bit to see AMD going for it too, instead of following their own path.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Without addressing any specific products, the point being UT's original comment was:

What matters most is the general customers' perception of the brand. Why do you avoid to comment on that? That is something AMD should think of more deeply and in the long run, not about some current sales...

Aren't kneejerk price moves are actually more about short term sales than they are about growing the brand? That what it seems like to me.

As for the comments about 4800 series, the situation is very different. 4800 series was designed from the outset to address a very specific segment, but in this case there are already other products addressing that space.

 

[UniversalTruth]

Aren't kneejerk price moves are actually more about short term sales than they are about growing the brand? That what it seems like to me.

Yes, I agree that it is somehow confusing without explaining in details what I meant.
Growing the brand without growing in quality is something really over optimistic.

By "current sales" I meant current high margins.

As for the comments about 4800 series, the situation is very different. 4800 series was designed from the outset to address a very specific segment, but in this case there are already other products addressing that space.

With the difference that now not only 7900 don't "address a very specific segment", but none of the products that belong to 7000 series do.

 

[zealjuniorwarrantofficer]

whatever happened to cinema2.0 photoreal tech?

scary and politically incorrect especially if you add gore ala soldier of fortune, but let me tell you what(I shoot the judge or senator in the head that dares oppose this).

 

[Albuquerque]

Yes, I agree that it is somehow confusing without explaining in details what I meant.
Growing the brand without growing in quality is something really over optimistic.

By "current sales" I meant current high margins.



With the difference that now not only 7900 don't "address a very specific segment", but none of the products that belong to 7000 series do.

I love how your opinions (bolded section above) are simple fact and that everyone respects it as such. I could only hope that my opinion held as much weight as yours... (here's a hint in case you didn't get it: your opinion isn't fact.)

We get it, you don't like the 7000 series at all. Get out of the thread and/or quit mucking it up with your obvious bias and issues. Kthxbye.

 

[lanek]

whatever happened to cinema2.0 photoreal tech?

scary and politically incorrect especially if you add gore ala soldier of fortune, but let me tell you what(I shoot the judge or senator in the head that dares oppose this).

For Cinema 2.0 specifically, i dont know, but AMD is working and have work on a lot of movies with different studio, including special effect, physic with Bullet ... So this should have been part of this " Cinema 2.0"

I imagine this is more related to professional studio, movies production, and professional firm for the cinema and publicity.

 

[sheepdogexpress]

I will not base myself on this list, more reviewers have made separate overclocking reviews for the 7970, and the 3 link i have seen is not present, most was really conservative when they have test the card. Most have been send with initial bios, and the driver overdrive was not working correctly on the driver press release.
First exemple i can find as i have the link: Guru3D just set 1052mhz on the review.... Things change in his overclocking guide. http://www.guru3d.com/article/radeon-hd-7970-overclock-guide/



This is why you see result all over the place, when i have yet to seen a card who dont go to 1100 just by using the overdrive.

They over volted or raised the maximum power threshold of the card and raised power limits 20%. The card consumed 34 more watts, which is significant. I am talking about not raising the volts or power limt whatsoever. Simply a raise in clocks.

Raising to 1100 would kill most if not all the overclocking room in these cards and alot of these cards would not make it if we go through more rigorous testing. What AMD consider to be stable may not be the same as these reviewers too.