Silent_Buddha
Legend
Does it really matter why we haven’t seen it in games? Like I said I’ll believe it when it actually happens.
No idea yet if it will or won't happen, but...
Consoles are the current limiting factor. If it is more performant than RT on consoles than it will be leveraged more in games than RT on consoles. If it isn't more performant than RT on consoles then it won't be leveraged more in games. If it is used more on consoles, it'll become the defacto way to do X thing regardless of whether RT can do it better on PC.
This doesn't mean that the occasionally developer won't push RT hard on PC, but that in general games will utilize what is performant on consoles and what is performant on PC doesn't really matter too much.
So, for example, I expect developers like Remedy and DICE to push things on PC that aren't used much on console. OTOH - I'm somewhat doubtful that Rockstar Games will push much beyond what works well on console...of course they'll dial all of that up to 11 on PC, but they are unlikely to greatly push something on PC if the same code won't easily run on console with a simple downscaling of quality.
But that said, if something like SVOGI or something else that currently isn't used much because of last gen console limitations becomes feasible on current gen consoles, I'm willing to bet it'll end up seeing widespread adoption in games.
The key here is whether or not current gen consoles (the gen that just started) can make better use of these techniques than previous gen consoles.
Personally, while I expect to see some limited use of RT in games going forward because of the consoles, I don't expect to see RT really pushed hard until the next generation of consoles, regardless of how far PC GPU RT progresses in the meantime. Similar to how we didn't see much progress in PC gaming graphics until developers dropped PS3/X360 and started to develop for the PS4/XBO and suddenly the exact same graphics cards and CPUs were suddenly pumping out significantly better graphics in games.
This is, IMO, unfortunate, but a practical reality of a world where at least 2/3rds of a game's sales are likely to come from consoles. There are of course exceptions with the occasion game selling better on PC than console, but in general greater than 66% of a AAA developers games will be sold on console. That combined with the cost associated with developing a AAA titles means that most dev resources will be spent on leveraging console hardware. Again, there will be some few developers that can afford the extra cost associated with leveraging PC specific features, but it's the exception rather than the rule.
Regards,
SB