So I dug up some of
@Bondrewd 's posts from before he was banned, and it seems the guy/gal was the real deal on what to expect. It's a shame his short-messaging posting style got him banned, but I think there are really good insights in his posts (even if a bit cryptic at times) for what to expect within the following months:
https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2151554/
https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2151556/
https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2151526/ <- the most relevant one, answering to @trinibwoy
https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2151485/
https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2152320/
https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2152343/
To summarize (and decrypt/interpret):
1 - AMD knew they'd get a power efficiency win with Navi 21 vs. GA102 (
funny how no one talks power efficiency on top-end GPUs anymore).
2 - However, they're not very interested in making/selling a lot of Navi 21 chips for more than necessary to showing-off a halo product, because
3 - They get higher margins and more consolidated clients in selling CPUs and APUs, therefore these are the ones getting most of their 7nm waffer allocation.
4 - Also, RDNA2 is mostly an architecture optimized for mobile, so AMD will be pushing for Cezanne + Navi 22/23 combos in laptops, in a significant ramp up in design wins for laptops (
which was recently confirmed by Lisa Su at CES BTW)
5 - OTOH, Huawei / HiSilicon leaving the SoC business in Q4'20/Q1'21 means there should be some 7nm production capability free for AMD.
So it looks like Navi 21 cards may not ever have a decent ramp-up in production. AMD's target for 2021 is CPUs and APUs for the desktop, and APU or APU+N22/N23 on mobile. Desktop Navi 21 and Navi 22 may be in short supply the whole year.
Cezanne + Navi 22/23 being their main target for laptops would also explain why AMD didn't bother all that much with upgrading its now-ancient Vega 8, other than perhaps increasing its clocks even further.
Nvidia we love you! Nvidiaaaaaaaaaaaa my RTX savior, what would we do without you! I'm just so happy right now *sniff* I need a tissue
Isn't it impressive how every page in the RX6800 thread needs to be flooded with this week's "
Raytracing Performance Comparison" video/article? The ones that media outlets are
totally not pressured to release under fear of being blacklisted out of FE samples (and god knows what else), like we saw happening with Hardware Unboxed?
And now the narrative is also "
I think 8GB is plenty* for at least 5 years" because of course no AMD video card could have any perceptible long-term advantage on their side, ever. And of course they need to
pollute make that point over and over again in the RX6800 thread.
* - most probably the same users who were claiming the Fury X was doomed at launch because it released with only 4GB VRAM against a 6GB 980 Ti.