AMD: R9xx Speculation

EDIT: Oh, and as for this interesting point:

Mianca- You are set on your POV of the rumor mill, just don't be surprised when your speculation turns out to be completely wrong.

Barts is a good bit cheaper to make than a 5850, not taking into account the memory ICs. Similar/same PCB but different, probably cheaper, components, smaller die by ~15%, uses similar or less power.

Now I wanna play the speculation game:
Barts XT - 6770 - ~140-150w TDP, ~270-280mm2, competes with GTX470.
I was originally thinking the MSRP would be ~$249 but that seems a little low, $269-$279 sounds a bit better for something that performs between a 5850 and 5870.
 
Mianca- You are set on your POV of the rumor mill, just don't be surprised when your speculation turns out to be completely wrong.
Sorry if my comments appeared a bit opinionated - it's just the way I'm used to make my points clear. That doesn't mean I don't respect other people's views on the "speculation game".

Barts is a good bit cheaper to make than a 5850, not taking into account the memory ICs. Similar/same PCB but different, probably cheaper, components, smaller die by ~15%, uses similar or less power.
Yeah, and that's exactly why I (personally) think it would make a great HD 5850 replacement. Better value for the customer, more profits for AMD, everyone wins. I'm well aware it won't work that way if Barts XT isn't somewhere near Cypress XT in performance, of course. So that's where my entire speculation hinges on.

Now I wanna play the speculation game:
Barts XT - 6770 - ~140-150w TDP, ~270-280mm2, competes with GTX470.
I was originally thinking the MSRP would be ~$249 but that seems a little low, $269-$279 sounds a bit better for something that performs between a 5850 and 5870.
Pretty well. Looking at my own share of speculation further above, the only point in which we actually seem differ is the naming/price tag. You say they'll sell Barts XT as HD 6770 @ $279, I'd rather suggest they push it into the high-end segment, label it HD 6850, and make some extra money (>=$300).


Time will tell who's right. In the meanwhile, there are arguments in favor of both views. I stated those in favor of mine rather clearly in my previous posts - but the main arguments actually are (a) profit and (b) marketing:

I already talked about (a) further up in this post: Rather sell a card that is cheaper to make than your last HD5850 card for the same (or more) money in the high-end segment than keep that same card in the high-midrange segment and use it to replace the (vastly cheaper to make) Juniper card. The latter would basically be great for customers (HD5870 performance @ HD6770 price), but bad for AMD's profits. You decide what a highly indebted company probably has to care more about.

As for (b): People who already own an HD 5770 simply will be quicker to pick up Barts XT if it's labelled as "HD6850" than if it's labelled as "HD6770". Moreover, there's the psychological aspect of evoking the impression that basically, your cards are all about high-end performance: Rather make it look as if you "add" performance on top of what already is on the market (i.e. shift your entire lineup one "half-step" towards the enthusiast, HD69xx level) than sell your stuff cheaply. If your new upper-high-midrange card can actually compete with your competitor's lower-high-end card (GTX 470) - why not label your upper high-midrange card as lower high-end (HD x850) card straight away?

Everything that's better than your competitor's best should actually be placed no lower than the HD69xx category - so that's where Cayman XT should have to be placed given current performance rumours; and as for the gap created below Cayman Pro, well, that's where Barts XT would just fit in.

On top of all that, there's (c) the power consumption aspect Squilliam pointed out once more (if you compare his suggestions to mine, you'll see that I actually support his view - with Barts XT @ two 6pin power connectors just not fitting into the high-midrange anymore practically being my very first reaction to seeing the leaked picture of it).


When all is said and done, everything I suggested might very well turn out to be false. But I still think that, provided that my basic performance assumptions for Barts aren't totally off, the lineup I proposed strikes a very good balance between (a) performance gain over the last generation cards at the same naming level, (b) categorization with respect to power consumption and (c) price targets actually making the launch of those new cards financially worthwhile for AMD.

Finally, here's an updated version of the PCB comparison I made:

HD 5770
Barts XT
HD 5850
HD 5870

You be the judge on whether it makes sense to sell that complex Barts XT card @ a high-midrange price.

vs2b.jpg
 
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Also from a marketing perspective in relation to Barts, if Barts is say for instance 6770 and 6830 or 50 or both, then there would be fewer problems to also name that chip the Mobility 68xx as well. It is less confusing for the average enthisiast/gamer if the rules are more consistant between the mobility and desktop range of GPUs. AMD probably doesn't want the same kind of confusion and complaints in relation to their naming a 7xx series GPU on the desktop an 8xx series GPU on the mobility side.
 
Now I wanna play the speculation game:
Barts XT - 6770 - ~140-150w TDP, ~270-280mm2, competes with GTX470.
I was originally thinking the MSRP would be ~$249 but that seems a little low, $269-$279 sounds a bit better for something that performs between a 5850 and 5870.

I'd be a very sad puppy if 6770 came in at 5850 prices. It should be less than 200 USD at launch IMO. Mainstream lineup shouldn't go appreciably above that. Perhaps 229 at max, but even that would be pushing it, IMO.

Then again with little to no competition perhaps AMD will turn into the new Nvidia and start pushing prices across the board into ridiculous territory again. Rather than the rather refreshing ATI of a couple years ago that set a pricing precedent by actually drastically lowering prices across the board with the Rv7xx series, and thus forcing Nvidia to abandon their ridiculous pricing policies of the time.

Regards,
SB
 
Let me add some prices to my previous assumptions:

HD 67xx series
HD6750: Turks XT= 16ROPs, 40TMUs, 160 4D-Shaders, 128Bit memory bus (@900Mhz ~ 1.152GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. in between HD5770/HD5830; TDP 110W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $179
HD6770
: Barts Pro = 32ROPs, 72TMUs, 280 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@700Mhz ~1.568GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. in between HD5830/50, TDP 135W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $229

HD 68xx series
HD6850: Barts XT = 32ROPs, 80TMUs, 320 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 850Mhz ~ 2.176GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. slightly below HD5870, TDP 175W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $299
HD6870:
Cayman Pro = [strike]48[/strike]32ROPs, 112TMUs, 440 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 725Mhz ~ 2.552GFOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5870+20%, TDP 210W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $399

HD 69xx series
HD 6950: Cayman XT = [strike]48[/strike]32ROPs, 120TMUs, 480 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 850Mhz ~ 3.264GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970, TDP 260W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $499
HD 6970:
2x Barts XT =64ROPs, 160TMUs, 640 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@825Mhz ~ 4.224GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+20%; TDP 280W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $599
HD 6990
: 2x Cayman XT = [strike]96[/strike]64ROPs, 240TMUs, 960 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@675Mhz ~ 5.184GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+40%; TDP 295W) / Dec. 2010 ~ $699

Possible?
 
HD 69xx series
HD 6950: Cayman XT = [strike]48[/strike]32ROPs, 120TMUs, 480 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 850Mhz ~ 3.264GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970, TDP 260W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $499
HD 6970:
2x Barts XT =64ROPs, 160TMUs, 640 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@825Mhz ~ 4.224GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+20%; TDP 280W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $599
HD 6990
: 2x Cayman XT = [strike]96[/strike]64ROPs, 240TMUs, 960 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@675Mhz ~ 5.184GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+40%; TDP 295W) / Dec. 2010 ~ $699

Possible?
Both Antilles Pro and Antilles XT are based on Cayman
 
Where did this dual Barts idea come? The orignal ASIC's list in Cat 10.8 had

235,ANTILLES PRO (671C),NI CAYMAN
236,ANTILLES XT (671D),NI CAYMAN

Which would not lend itself to dual Barts, as the cayman driver won't be appropriate for the Barts arch.

Just wondering
 
What good is to have 2.5 higher z-performance, if the gaming performance is 15-20% higher at the average? I see it just as another sign of inefficiency. It's the same kind of overkill as fermi's 4-times higher triangle rate.

it's pretty well known that fixed function hardware takes very little die space. certainly their engineers didnt add the fast tessellation features because they thought it was cool. perhaps it could make it easier for developers to add in tessellation and not have to worry about tanking framerates.
 
It would be hilarious if AMD had a single chip 69xx part.

That's what I think about too. This *9** series name has alwas been kept for dual GPU solutions. So, in the upcoming HD 6*** series nothing is going to be changed,

Let me add some prices to my previous assumptions:

HD 67xx series
HD6750: Turks XT= 16ROPs, 40TMUs, 160 4D-Shaders, 128Bit memory bus (@900Mhz ~ 1.152GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. in between HD5770/HD5830; TDP 110W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $179
HD6770
: Barts Pro = 32ROPs, 72TMUs, 280 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@700Mhz ~1.568GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. in between HD5830/50, TDP 135W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $229

HD 68xx series
HD6850: Barts XT = 32ROPs, 80TMUs, 320 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 850Mhz ~ 2.176GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. slightly below HD5870, TDP 175W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $299
HD6870:
Cayman Pro = [strike]48[/strike]32ROPs, 112TMUs, 440 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 725Mhz ~ 2.552GFOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5870+20%, TDP 210W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $399

HD 69xx series
HD 6950: Cayman XT = [strike]48[/strike]32ROPs, 120TMUs, 480 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 850Mhz ~ 3.264GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970, TDP 260W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $499
HD 6970:
2x Barts XT =64ROPs, 160TMUs, 640 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@825Mhz ~ 4.224GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+20%; TDP 280W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $599
HD 6990
: 2x Cayman XT = [strike]96[/strike]64ROPs, 240TMUs, 960 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@675Mhz ~ 5.184GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+40%; TDP 295W) / Dec. 2010 ~ $699

Possible?


OMG! :LOL: No, no, no. How many times are you going to write this thingie? :LOL: Look at how things are in reality:

6650- Turks Pro
6670- Turks XT
6750- Barts Pro
6770- Barts XT
6850- Cayman Pro
6870- Cayman XT
6950 (?)- Antilles Pro (perhaps that would not be realesed, like in 5*** series where there was no need for such a product)
6970- Antilles XT (Based on two Cayman XTs)


Do you like the reality, Mianca? :LOL: :rolleyes:
 
That's what I think about too. This *9** series name has alwas been kept for dual GPU solutions. So, in the upcoming HD 6*** series nothing is going to be changed,




OMG! :LOL: No, no, no. How many times are you going to write this thingie? :LOL: Look at how things are in reality:

6650- Turks Pro
6670- Turks XT
6750- Barts Pro
6770- Barts XT
6850- Cayman Pro
6870- Cayman XT
6950 (?)- Antilles Pro (perhaps that would not be realesed, like in 5*** series where there was no need for such a product)
6970- Antilles XT (Based on two Cayman XTs)


Do you like the reality, Mianca? :LOL: :rolleyes:



Yep ALWAYS... being ONE whole product... ;)

I more or less agree given AMDs history that
xx50 would = Pro
xx70 would = XT

I'm wondering about the xx30 = LE.
 
I think it is possible for the 6830 part to perhaps be Barts based. I guess it depends on Cayman yields though. If they need to salvage a lot of parts straight off the bat then a Cayman based 6830 would make a lot of sense, if not, perhaps a higher clocked Barts with 2x6-pin power connectors would fit very well. I have no doubt that a high clocked Barts part would outperform 5830, even if Barts does turn out to only have 16 ROPS, which in my mind is still highly likely.

This could be what the picture is of (6830), while the regular 6770 Barts based card will be underclocked to stay within the 150w envelope.

Also, this would erradicate the need for a single chip 69xx card. Going off what AMD stated as the reasoning for creating the x9xx series last year I don't see them introducing a single chip x9xx card.

In summary (speculation):

6770 - Barts Pro - Artificially clock constrained by single 6-pin power connector ~$200

6830 - Barts XT - Higher clocked with 2x6 pin power connectors, longer more complex PCB ~$280
6850 - Cayman Pro - Units disabled, underclocked, 2x6pin power connectors ~$350
6870 - Cayman XT - Fully fledged Cayman, 8pin and 6pin power connectors ~$450

6950 - Antilles Pro - 2 x cut down Cayman, underclocked, within 300w ~$550
6970 - Antilles XT - 2 x complete Cayman, underclocked, possibly more than 300w ~$650

I also believe a major differentiating factor between 6850 and 6870 will be that 6850 only has 1GB VRAM while 6870 has 2GB. This way 6850 can use the same currently used 1Gb GDDR5 chips as that will save costs.
 
Where did this dual Barts idea come?
It comes from the logic inherent in the idea that "Antilles Pro" based on "2x Cayman Pro" probably wouldn't be much faster (yet a lot more expensive to make) than "Antilles Pro" based on "2x Barts XT".

Of course, that idea again is based on my other assumptions - which might actually be bs, as UniversalTruth keeps pointing out to me with the same persistance that I keep re-stating them ;)


That being said, I actually pondered about that driver-entry you mentioned for a long time now - and if that entry is indeed correct (i.e. not a deliberately placed misinformation), there are only three feasible explanations for making BOTH Antilles cards Cayman based:

(a) 2xBarts XT isn't quite fast enough to beat Cayman XT by a decent margin (which might actually be true if crossfire-scaling turns out to be below x1.6)

(b) Cayman Pro/XT in fact incorporates some kind of dual-GPU-card-enhancing design-twist not present in Barts (sideport?).

(c) Both of the above.


So, I might be willing to exchange that HD 6970/Antilles Pro = 2xBarts assumption for an approach actually recognizing that Antilles Pro = 2xCayman Pro. That wouldn't touch my basic assumption of AMD pushing their entire line-up one "half-step" up towards the enthusiast (HD x9xx) segment, though.

HD 69xx series (b)
HD 6950: Cayman XT = 32ROPs, 120TMUs, 480 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 850Mhz ~ 3.264GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970, TDP 250W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $499
HD 6970:
Antilles Pro = 2x Cayman Pro = 64ROPs, 224TMUs, 880 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@675Mhz ~ 4.752GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+20%; TDP 275W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $599
HD 6990
: Antilles XT = 2x Cayman XT = 64ROPs, 240TMUs, 960 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@700Mhz ~ 5.376GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+40%; TDP 295W) / Dec. 2010 ~ $699


In changing this, also adjusted my speculation concerning the clock speeds for Antilles Pro and Antilles XT - but they still seem rather close together and rather high given that 2xCypress @ 725Mhz already came with a TDP of 295W ... so plz keep in mind that I'm not so much interested in the actual "specs" here - the main point is to illustrate my naming-scheme wise assumptions.


I'll be off and let all that "speculation game" rest for now - got some actually important stuff to do besides spamming your forum ;)

@ UniversalTruth: I really like your straightforward way of telling me I'm all wrong - enjoy your well-earned rest while I'm gone
:D
 
Radeon HD 2900 XT… :p


Yep, that was a fail in every certain way. So the marketing had to emphasize, but back then there were no dual GPU cards, now the situation is completely different and we don't expect products with low performance in order to use those marketing methods....
Mianca's suggestions only confuse people, I think everyone accepted the classic way to brand the products. ;)
 
HD 69xx series (b)
HD 6950: Cayman XT = 32ROPs, 120TMUs, 480 4D-Shaders, 256Bit memory bus (@ 850Mhz ~ 3.264GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970, TDP 250W) / Oct. 2010 ~ $499
HD 6970:
Antilles Pro = 2x Cayman Pro = 64ROPs, 224TMUs, 880 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@675Mhz ~ 4.752GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+20%; TDP 275W) / Nov. 2010 ~ $599
HD 6990
: Antilles XT = 2x Cayman XT = 64ROPs, 240TMUs, 960 4D-Shaders, 2x, 256Bit memory bus (@700Mhz ~ 5.376GFLOPs; real-world gaming perf. HD5970+40%; TDP 295W) / Dec. 2010 ~ $699
How exactly do you think Cayman XT could consume 250W when Antilles XT is using 2 of those with TDP of 295W? Even lowered clocks just won't do that.

You logic fails on those plans
 
X1600 Gemini
X1650 Gemini
X1950 Gemini
HD2600 Gemini

They replaced "Gemini" by "X2" for HD3xxx + HD4xxx and "X2" by X9xx for HD5xxx...
 
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