AMD: R7xx Speculation

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My guess
Back-to-School OEM Cycle: RV770x2/RV770/RV670/RV635/RV620
Winter OEM Cycle: Exact Same.
Spring OEM Cycle: 40nm GPUs.
 
Uhm, RV635 and RV620 are already 55nm?

And??? Your suggesting the performance level should remain the same?

They offer crap performance, although I'm willing to let RV620 slide in that department, I'm not for the all important mid range segment. I'm sure ATi would rather sell mid range cards at the price levels RV670 is selling for and where they use to sell mid range cards for. I really don't see the point on holding out RV740 for 40nm by spring time. Seems way too long and the market demands something more. If it's the case, then Nvidia is going to have a parade with the 9600GT.
 
I don't see the problem with RV620 and RV635; they are perfectly competitive with G86/G98 and G84/G96 AFAICT and are about what you'd expect them to be given their die size. If we stay on 55nm, either you have substantial architectural performance improvements or it's not worth making new chips... All I'm saying is I doubt RV7xx performance improvements per-mm² are anything but incremental. But I'd love to be wrong, of course! As for RV670, I guess AA improvements for example would be more valuable there...
 
I really don't see the point on holding out RV740 for 40nm by spring time. Seems way too long and the market demands something more. If it's the case, then Nvidia is going to have a parade with the 9600GT.

What's wrong with the 3870 filling that slot? AMD obviously has no problem using RV670 on very cheap parts (3830).
 
What's wrong with the 3870 filling that slot? AMD obviously has no problem using RV670 on very cheap parts (3830).

A 50% cut in the GPU core memory bus width means lots of wasted silicon in each die, even if the ALU's remain intact.
Not the best definition of cost effective, especially when you're talking about SKU's in the 79 to 149 dollar slot, with much lower profit margins than the 149 to 249 segment.
Otherwise, there would be a 128bit HD38xx much sooner to combat both the 8800 GS and the 9600 GT (the HD3690 doesn't "count" because it wasn't widely available, at least not in the western markets).
 
What's wrong with the 3870 filling that slot? AMD obviously has no problem using RV670 on very cheap parts (3830).

I still don't see the point as I don't expect RV740 to be anything less than half of RV770. With that said, a 256bit RV740 should considerably be more attractive than a 128bit RV670(and cost effective) and much more fierce next to a 9600GT as far as performance and margins go.
 
RV670 is only 24mm2 (14%) larger than G84 and even the 128bit version is 50-100% faster than G84. As I remember, 128bit RV670 is about 15-20% slower (at the average) than 256bit RV670. That's quite cost effective in my opinion...
 
RV670 is only 24mm2 (14%) larger than G84 and even the 128bit version is 50-100% faster than G84. As I remember, 128bit RV670 is about 15-20% slower (at the average) than 256bit RV670. That's quite cost effective in my opinion...

How about memory chip and PCB layer/complexity costs ?
 
RV670 is only 24mm2 (14%) larger than G84 and even the 128bit version is 50-100% faster than G84. As I remember, 128bit RV670 is about 15-20% slower (at the average) than 256bit RV670. That's quite cost effective in my opinion...

Cost effective and performance effective compared to the competition. Comparing RV670 to a 80nm chip of last gen...? I think the 65nm G94 is what we should be looking at and even though it's bigger, all indication points to better pricing flexibility and I would imagine it being much worse when it goes to 55nm. The 128bit RV670 although cheaper than G94(only in China and nothing official about it coming to the west), gets spanked by it. Not a position I would want to be in if I was ATi.

Instead of waiting on die shrinks long periods away with incremental performance improvements, they need something that scales more effectively from the top that offers better bang. Other wise they will continue to suffer from Nvidia's pricing pressure.
 
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I still don't see the point as I don't expect RV740 to be anything less than half of RV770. With that said, a 256bit RV740 should considerably be more attractive than a 128bit RV670(and cost effective) and much more fierce next to a 9600GT as far as performance and margins go.

I wasn't implying that AMD use the 3830 to fight the 9600GT. They can simply lower the 3870 price some more. Isn't RV670 still a fair bit smaller than G94? We can expect Nvidia to keep the 9600GT around for a long time so I don't see the urgency in replacing the 3870. Besides, for all we know RV740 is slower than RV670....

As Arun said, AMD already has offerings competitive with the 8400/9300/9400 and 8600 lines. The 9500GT should slot in somewhere between the 3650 and 3850 cards.
 
My guess:

Q2 2008:
enthusiast: RV770 (XT & Pro)
performance: RV670 Rev12
mainstream: RV635
value: RV620

Q4 2008:
enthusiast: RV770x2
performance: RV770 (XT & Pro)
mainstream: RV740
mainstream: RV730 (?)
value: RV710


I noticed your projections illustrated the X2 coming out in Q4... if that is true, I would probably get to single cards and SLI them together, as I want to build a system right away upon my return home in July.

My question: Is there any differences between an X2 and two SLI'd/Crossfire cards? I see these differences at this time:

1) Two separate cards might draw more power
2) One X2 card costs slightly more than two separate
3) Performance differences are negligible, if any between the two setups.
4) SLI'd/Crossfire cards are naturally more inconvenient on the whole vs. one card.

Anything I'm missing or got wrong there?
 
Alternatively, I suppose, it's possible to implement it as 4 SIMDs - each set of 96 SPs sharing a program counter. That would have 20 redundant ALU lanes - but now the issue is the batch size of 96...

How would a 4 SIMD, 32 TMU setup work? You'd have six quads per SIMD but 8 quad TMU's.....
 
Besides, for all we know RV740 is slower than RV670....

If AA performance is improved in the HD4xxx architecture, then I would not be too sure about that. I'm led to believe that RV770(256bit) consist of 2 RBE's, 4 TEU's, and 48sp's. Something like that I would imagine being slightly smaller than RV670. A much more appealing offering than the 128bit RV670 and stronger competitor to the 8800gs and possibly even the 9600GT. And where is the HD 3870 going to be when RV770 pro models hit?

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5681&Itemid=1

I hope Fudo is right.
 
Yeah I'm not saying anything different. I'm just saying that right now Nvidia doesn't have anything in the mid/low segments that AMD cannot adequately counter with existing solutions.

On another note: if RV770 does indeed have 480 ALU's it looks like it will fall short of the 1TFlop mark. I'm not really confident that they can hit the required 1Ghz+ core speed. Nvidia probably doesnt have a chance of hitting 1Tflop of MADDs either.
 
A 50% cut in the GPU core memory bus width means lots of wasted silicon in each die, even if the ALU's remain intact.
4 or 5%?

Look at the transistor counts for R600 versus RV670 and note that the latter has 50% of the former's MCs.

Jawed
 
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