If buy either an R300 or the NV30, you're basically buying a "1.0" release of a new architecture at a premium price. Those of us who buy these chips this year will be spending $300-500 for them, but both ATI and NVidia are going to release improved versions (ATI -> .13um, NV30 -> Ti "better yield" edition) next year and those will sell for much less. I mean, why buy a hot, power hungry R300 @ .15um for $400 when next year you can buy a cooler, less power hungry, higher clocked R300 @ .13um for less? The .15um R300 IMHO is not ATI's main product, it's just a "concept car" like the NV30 to sell the lower-end units.
Moreover, by the time the .13um R300 ships/NV30 "Ti", the drivers will be way more stable and debugged, and DirextX9 will be out.
For those who are early adopters, we are used to paying premium for a "first gen" chip with driver and/or hardware problems, and lack of software support. Remember, the original 8500 drivers didn't even support smoothvision. The GF1 was SDR! T&L support took a long time.
It's disingenous to say that buying an NV30 in Dec will get you a "barely functional" product. WTF does that mean? Either it will past the functional tests, or it won't. NVidia isn't going to sell you a board that simple doesn't work for $400-500! And how is this any different than ATI sorting bad R300 yields and selling "barely functional R300"s rebranded as 9500's?
Most likely, the NV30's on store shelves will be the "cream of the crop" from the yields, and anything that fails functional tests will either be rebranded and resold as another product, or thrown away.
In some cases, yes, drivers can work around problems by emulating or deactivating features, but if you see bad NV30 benchmark numbers because of missing or emulated features, are you gonna buy it? Is NVidia going to ship it? I doubt it. They will just send working review units, and hold off on ramp up until it is debugged, just as they have done in the past with the "late" GF3/GF4.
Yes, the early adopters of the high-end R300/NV30 are going to lose out. We are buying immature products, no-DX9, immature drivers, no software support in games, "pushing the envelope of TSMC" products.
I just don't see a big difference between ATI and NVidia's situation here, since I think NV30/R300 = GeForce1/Radeon. They are the first step in a new generation/platform.