400 K ps3 in USA, 100 K ps3 in Japan at launch

[avaya]

3mn Cell's already stockpiled and with this hick-up only ~2mn(can we even trust this now?) to be used up for all 2006.

That's an amazing financial meltdown on the semiconductor side. Are the fabs going to be pumping out Cells with 3mn already in inventory? Idle fabs are not a good thing to have, an over flowing inventory is also very bad news.

I still can't believe that they've suddenly "run" into this diode shortage. We've had warnings since last year! Sounds like a cover-up for their own misgivings in my opinion. The whole thing stinks. Shocking failure to execute. Inefficient management.

When they announced a November launch back in March surely they would have gone around procuring diodes with immediate effect. Maybe they were waiting for diode yields (Nichia@30%) to improve?

Nothing makes sense. A company renowned in this business for its usually brilliant execution with a PR department that had an unrivalled ability to smooth over any cracks in the strategy is fumbling around like a new entrant to the market learning the ropes the hard way.

What the hell has happened at SCEI?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

When they announced a November launch back in March surely they would have gone around procuring diodes with immediate effect. Maybe they were waiting for diode yields (Nichia@30%) to improve?

I think they were. It's just that not many people are making those diodes and they're hard to come by!

 

[compres]

I am not sure about this so I'll as:

Is it even worth it for them to release such a low number of ps3s in the USA?

Is it not critical to get developer support to sell as many consoles as possible? Asuming yes why would they on top of the low supply release the console at such high price? (Assuming laws of economics apply here, meaning the more expensive a product the less it sells.)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The developers want to see a large install base, but that doesn't have to come from day 1. The launch titles are already being worked on and will be released regardless of how many PS3 are out there. Then Sony will have n months to show some significant sales to appease the publishers. 6 million by March is acceptable (actually very good) is achieved, even if they start worldwide with only 10 consoles on Day 1.

 

[Sankari]

So then I guess this year you are getting a PSP?

I have to say with great regret that I don't believe in handconsoles and won't get PSP or DS. Its just not my thing really, even though PSP has MGSortable ops (Which is rumored to become one of the best MGS titles ever) I won't buy PSP for it, atleast not before the price drops significantly, not even 50€ DS/PSP would get me to buy one to give you a hint how low they would need to go for me to get a handheld.

Both are great systems but playing games from the smallest screens ever is not shouting "Relaxing" to me.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Game over man.

Sony has just opened the door for 360 to get an insurmountable lead this Christmas, exactly the way PS2 did against xbox 1.

360's got no supply shortages, wicked second gen games coming up, and a lower price. All MS has to do at this point is execute.

Sony's going to seriously be hurting after this Christmas, and it's all Blu Ray's fault.

I wouldn't say game over, but Sony certainly just lost the first quarter.

 

[avaya]

The thing is none of this matter in the long-run if they do indeed reach 6mn shipped by fiscal 2007. Considering their spectacular fumblings since Spring I doubt very much they'll even reach that number now.

The shocking Japanese launch allocation is down in part to the HD optical war PR/studio obligations (Time-Warner and Paramount were swayed by PS3). Such a pathetic launch in Japan could prove very dangerous if Nintendo's new disruptive product designed for the home takes off in any meaningful way. I am leaning on the side of hyperbole here but letting Wii out the blocks without even a hint of strong sustained competition could see the PS3's main software strength, exclusive Japanese developer support, evaporate within a very short timeframe.

Japan tends to be a one console only territory, once a console has a strong lead it is very unlikely to be caught, of course the number of observations supporting this theory is so low that it cannot be credible, but that is what history has dictated for that region.

As for Europe, well I don't think much has changed, 360 is still doing poorly and Wii will have to go head to head against PS2 which is still going like a train. Retailers and developers are the ones hurting from this in Europe, not so much Sony.

 

[Angelcurio]

What i find rather amusing is the excessively low quantity of units for the japanese launch. 100k sounds more like they are launching there just for compromises and for not screwing up their homeland.

 

[Inane_Dork]

What i find rather amusing is the excessively low quantity of units for the japanese launch. 100k sounds more like they are launching there just for compromises and for not screwing up their homeland.

I agree. 100K is just an insult, I would think.

I know it will never happen, but it would be hilarious if Blue Dragon was really popular and made the 360 outsell the PS3 in Japan this year.

 

[fastasleep]

400k for the NA launch is to appease the likes of EA and Activision who they're probably on the phone with right now in full damage control mode. EA's sports titles have a short shelf life. The bigger problem is, what if they can't get out the 400k at launch for NA. If you're a publisher, that's not a number you can have any confidence in. EA is probably sh#$ing the proverbial brick.

 

[ban25]

It's going to be tough getting a PS3 on launch with numbers like that. I was pretty confident before, but not now.

 

[hongcho]

So, Japan will go to Wii?

I am more curious about Japan. Sony has been losing to Nintendo on the handheld side (PSP vs. DS). So, just allocating 100K PS3 to Japan for the launch at such a price difference (to Wii), does this mean that Sony is willing to give up Japan for the U.S.? I am sure BD vs. HD-DVD is probably forcing Sony to give more allocation to the U.S.

I am actually more surprised about this. Sony is basically willing to sacrifice Europe (well, if they had to choose, sure) and Japan (why?).

Hong.

 

[Titanio]

SCEA on the US figures:

"The supply we have at launch is comparable to what was available for the PS2, not Xbox 360," he said. "That being said, people shouldn't fixate on the day-one allocation number. They should instead be more interested in the overall units available through the holidays, which will be 1 million to 1.2 million, which are significant amounts that will provide retail supply week over week with no dips in available stock."

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1540261/20060906/index.jhtml?headlines=true

So 1-1.2m is the target there, not 800k as assumed earlier.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's 2 markets, people! Seriously, whether Sony had 1 trillion PS3s ready for Japan or not, it'll lose market share to Wii based on tastes, and not availability. Anyone wanting next-gen gaming and movies won't be buying a Wii instead of a PS3. The only people buying Wii's will be those who want it's own type of gameplay, and that's a decision that's utterly independent of PS3. Putting it another way, if Wii weren't coming out, PS3 wouldn't be getting any more sales. The two products are so different as to appeal to different tastes entirely. It's like if Jaguar bring out a new sports car, it's not going to affect the sales of the Ford Focus. Sales of Jaguar are dependent on how many want it and are willing to pay for it. Likewise for the Focus. Some people might buy one of each. But the markets, though still in the same automobile segment, are independent and unrelated.

(Question : Seeing as cars are the universal analogy for all things, what do car companies use, and what did people use before they had cars?)

 

[Arwin]

I have to say with great regret that I don't believe in handconsoles and won't get PSP or DS. Its just not my thing really, even though PSP has MGSortable ops (Which is rumored to become one of the best MGS titles ever) I won't buy PSP for it, atleast not before the price drops significantly, not even 50€ DS/PSP would get me to buy one to give you a hint how low they would need to go for me to get a handheld.

Both are great systems but playing games from the smallest screens ever is not shouting "Relaxing" to me.

You have to compensate for the distance between the screen and your eyes though. You'll be amazed how soon you get sucked into the PSP's widescreen display. About 50% of everyone who tried out my PSP commented on how quickly you forget you're looking at a small screen. With movies it's even more striking, imho. It makes you wonder why you don't buy a smaller TV and then just sit closer to it instead. (actually, I do this partly at home and prefer it over going to the cinema).

And don't forget that the graphics look much better on the small screen - the pixel-per-inch ratio rivals hi-res PC displays and is pretty amazing at times.

Besides that, if you want to talk about relaxing - I can hardly think of anything more relaxing than playing a forest or ice level in Loco Roco ... . Or reading Beyond3D in bed ... (as long as there isn't any news on PS3 delays that is ... )

And then of course you have the added benefit of being able to hook up the PSP with the PS3 later on ...

 

[ManuVlad3.0]

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6157152.html

[UPDATE 1 & 2] When contacted by GameSpot about today's PS3 news, Sony reps said only that the company had "not announced specific ship numbers for Japan or North America." They also said that, despite the European delay and the reports of reduced shipment numbers, the previous estimates still stood. "[We] have announced that 2 million will be available in the world come November 11 and 17 and 4 million by the end of the calendar year," said a spokesperson.

I'm confusing now.

 

[Geo]

Sounds like internal info lag to me, frankly. "This is all we've gotten from the top, so we'll just keep repeating it, thankyouverymuch."

 

[nelg]

It's 2 markets, people! Seriously, whether Sony had 1 trillion PS3s ready for Japan or not, it'll lose market share to Wii based on tastes, and not availability. Anyone wanting next-gen gaming and movies won't be buying a Wii instead of a PS3. The only people buying Wii's will be those who want it's own type of gameplay, and that's a decision that's utterly independent of PS3. Putting it another way, if Wii weren't coming out, PS3 wouldn't be getting any more sales. The two products are so different as to appeal to different tastes entirely. It's like if Jaguar bring out a new sports car, it's not going to affect the sales of the Ford Focus. Sales of Jaguar are dependent on how many want it and are willing to pay for it. Likewise for the Focus. Some people might buy one of each. But the markets, though still in the same automobile segment, are independent and unrelated.

(Question : Seeing as cars are the universal analogy for all things, what do car companies use, and what did people use before they had cars?)

I don't think that it is so "cut and dry". There may be people who plan on getting a PS3 but are waiting for it to become more affordable or available. If, in the interim they buy a Wii or 360, they may become content enough that they decide to forgo it.

Horses

 

[assen]

It's 2 markets, people! Seriously, whether Sony had 1 trillion PS3s ready for Japan or not, it'll lose market share to Wii based on tastes, and not availability. Anyone wanting next-gen gaming and movies won't be buying a Wii instead of a PS3. The only people buying Wii's will be those who want it's own type of gameplay, and that's a decision that's utterly independent of PS3. Putting it another way, if Wii weren't coming out, PS3 wouldn't be getting any more sales.

It's not 2 markets. It's the same market, competing for the disposable income and gaming hours of the same people. Well, if Nintendo succeed in their "attract the non-gamers" ploy, there might be others, but not in the first 2-6 millions of sales. They will go to the hardcore.

Besides, it's not just interesting what happens "in the end", when we tally up the sales in 2010. Whether you and a million gamers like you buy a PS3 this fall and a Wii in the spring, or vice versa, matters a lot in the companies' bottom lines; it also matters to a publisher who, at some point between "this fall" and "the spring", has to decide what platform to support.

 

[nelg]

More numbers are coming in...........

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6157152.html

[UPDATE 3] If that wasn't confusing enough, a third set of numbers has entered the mix, courtesy of MTV News. Dave Karraker, SCEA's newly appointed head of corporate communications, told the youth network that around 1 million PS3s will be available at retail during the holiday shopping season.

"People shouldn't fixate on the day-one allocation number," Karraker told MTV. "They should instead be more interested in the overall units available through the holidays, which will be 1 million to 1.2 million, which are significant amounts that will provide retail supply week over week with no dips in available stock."

I also wonder if this is why Molly Smith left SCEA.