400 K ps3 in USA, 100 K ps3 in Japan at launch

[liolio]

The developers want to see a large install base, but that doesn't have to come from day 1. The launch titles are already being worked on and will be released regardless of how many PS3 are out there. Then Sony will have n months to show some significant sales to appease the publishers. 6 million by March is acceptable (actually very good) is achieved, even if they start worldwide with only 10 consoles on Day 1.

Shifty Geezer most of the time I agree with you, but you should know that there is now way Sony can achieve its goal.
They start with 500k instead of almost 2 millions, even if they don't if they don't enconter supplie problem (other than diode) they likely to so 4.5 millions by march.
6- 1.5 anyway 6 millions was very generous expectation, and nobody expected Sony to reach is goal, but most of people (including me) expected Sony to do quiet well.

So even 4.5 by march is generous because it's suposed no more diode issu after ps3 launch i can see why the problem should stop after the ps3 is on the market, and like the inital 6 millions anything else have to be perfect.

So I do believe some rumors that say that sony is likely to it its 6 millions figure between march ans november 2007 and obviouly the later than the sooner.

 

[Geo]

If it was just an initial 1.5M hit, then pushing Europe to March makes no sense. When they ramp they are expecting 1M/month, and they pushed Europe 4 months over a 1.5m initial shortfall? Umm, no, that's not adding up for me.

 

[liolio]

If it was just an initial 1.5M hit, then pushing Europe to March makes no sense. When they ramp they are expecting 1M/month, and they pushed Europe 4 months over a 1.5m initial shortfall? Umm, no, that's not adding up for me.

I'm not sure oof what you want to say (no offense it's not your english but mine).
But if they ramp as soon as decemberto 1 millions a month bu the end of march it will be 4.5 millions.
clealy you think Sony will deliver 6 millions unit or not?
For me obviously no, in that case they would have probably launch 100k for Europe even if they have not feed this market like they will do for Us and Japan,.
My guess, (not even guess) Sony exec know they 're facing right now huge supplies issue.

EDIT I've red your post two more times, and I might be wrong but i guess you think the same thing as me.

 

[Tahir2]

The situation seems worse for Sony than what happened with the Xbox360. 1.2million consoles over two territories is nothing to be sneezed at but over Xmas I am sure demand will outstrip supply.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The situation seems worse for Sony than what happened with the Xbox360. 1.2million consoles over two territories is nothing to be sneezed at but over Xmas I am sure demand will outstrip supply.

It's way worse if you consider the demand in Japan is probably 2-3million easily, while MS couldn't even sell 100k.

 

[Geo]

I'll be a little more explicit then. I not only think 6M by end of March is out the window, I think it pretty likely that 4.5M by end of March is out the window too. They aren't going to be hitting their 1M/month by the time they launch, the assembly short fall is going to continue well into the launch period.

I can't make the numbers add up any other way. The three numbers I'm looking at are 500k to launch with in US and Japan in November, 1m/month at full assembly, and pushing European launch 4 months. What does it take to credibly launch in Europe? Another 400k machines or so?

I said a couple times earlier, and I'll say it again --I'm starting to wince over what I see as the very real possibility of the NA launch going out the window too, either missing christmas entirely, or moving into mid-December for at least a little "show the flag" pre-Christmas launch in NA.

I've generally been dismissive of all the angst over this rumor and others re Sony the last few months --this is the first time I've felt it was really seriously in play they could majorly screw the launch in NA. That gremlin is on the table now, in my view, and the litttle bugger has an ugly grin on his face I don't like at all.

A couple weeks of unlooked for fubar in ramping assembly --where unlooked for fubars are famed far and wide to live-- and it's toast city for the NA launch as planned.

 

[liolio]

thank it's more clear now
But I don't believe they will move significatly the US launch it should be a suicide.
it's more likely for them to move launch day in Japan even if it looks crazy for a japenese company.

 

[compres]

I don't know how many of you live on such a generous budget, but I bet most people don't. I suspect at 600 a pop demand won't be as high after christmass 2006. So maybe a price drop when they start to ramp production?

 

[liolio]

I don't think so Sony already lose a lot of money on each unit.
And diode are in short supplie for every electronic company.
I've read that others electronic company complain about the availabilty of diode for theirs next
gen (BR and HD DVD) players.
That supplie issue can last.
So don't expect price drop to quickly, may be when the 65 shrink for cell and rsx will happen, but at this time Ms will do the same. So Sony's baby will still stay expensive in regard of the market.

 

[Geo]

I'd love to know if they've moved from sea shipping to air transport yet in their plans for NA launch. That could certainly make a difference --give them a little safety room-- if they haven't. It's just much more expensive. . .

 

[expletive]

I'll be a little more explicit then. I not only think 6M by end of March is out the window, I think it pretty likely that 4.5M by end of March is out the window too. They aren't going to be hitting their 1M/month by the time they launch, the assembly short fall is going to continue well into the launch period....

...fubars are famed far and wide to live-- and it's toast city for the NA launch as planned.

I agree and dont see how theyre going to end up with more blue diodes per month after launch when theyve had all this time to stockpile blue diodes for the initial shipments (which added up to 500K, supposedly).

Unless, of course, we are at the critical juncture of blue diode production where the last 3 months were awful and now, fortuitously coniciding with mass PS3 production, they flow like wine to the tune of 1 million+ per month.

 

[fastasleep]

I'd love to know if they've moved from sea shipping to air transport yet in their plans for NA launch. That could certainly make a difference --give them a little safety room-- if they haven't. It's just much more expensive. . .

I think air transport to NA is a foregone conclusion, since they've stated they're not starting production until the end of the month. Sony has no safety room, none. The launch figures they're currently citing are best case numbers. Any further hitches and you can kiss the NA launch goodbye.

 

[Geo]

I agree and dont see how theyre going to end up with more blue diodes per month after launch when theyve had all this time to stockpile blue diodes for the initial shipments (which added up to 500K, supposedly).

Unless, of course, we are at the critical juncture of blue diode production where the last 3 months were awful and now, fortuitously coniciding with mass PS3 production, they flow like wine to the tune of 1 million+ per month.

Are you brave enough to put a number out for end of March? I don't think I am. I did a little math, and one suggested itself, but it was too ugly to put here. I don't *want* them to have a disaster; I'm enough of a tech head that I hate anybody to have disasters. It's bad for all of us in the long run, never mind the short run winners/losers.

 

[Avon_Implosion]

I'm a bit confused...is this the confirmed shipment number for the US? Who confirmed it? Ken?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Are you brave enough to put a number out for end of March? I don't think I am. I did a little math, and one suggested itself, but it was too ugly to put here. I don't *want* them to have a disaster; I'm enough of a tech head that I hate anybody to have disasters. It's bad for all of us in the long run, never mind the short run winners/losers.

I think 2.5-3million by march is a safe bet. I'm assuming things don't go perfectly as planned, as they usually don't.

 

[Geo]

I'm a bit confused...is this the confirmed shipment number for the US? Who confirmed it? Ken?

Go back to the OP and punch the link. . . :smile:

 

[Geo]

I think 2.5-3million by march is a safe bet. I'm assuming things don't go perfectly as planned, as they usually don't.

That was my "benefit of the doubt" number. I hope they get within spitting distance of 3M at least.

 

[liolio]

Sadly, I think 2 millions for march is a better bet...

It appears that lake of diode should last almost until spring 2007, because the productivity is VERY low. Sony will no longer ship diode to others electronics compagnies.
they keep it all for the ps3.

I won't quote expletive, it's too mean lol...

 

[Geo]

Sadly, I think 2 millions for march is a better bet...

And that was the "too ugly to mention" number.

 

[expletive]

Are you brave enough to put a number out for end of March? I don't think I am. I did a little math, and one suggested itself, but it was too ugly to put here. I don't *want* them to have a disaster; I'm enough of a tech head that I hate anybody to have disasters. It's bad for all of us in the long run, never mind the short run winners/losers.

Well I dont know alot about the blue diode 'situation' but logic tells me that 500K is going to be the best case per month until the shortage is over. I think 400K/month is probably where they will end up over the short term (which, if the MS shortage is any indication[and its probably not], will last until about April.) Mind you I am taking a weighted average of the fact that yields will improve, with the fact that the 500K 'first month' number is after stockpiling since the beginning of time. So while I do think yields will improve, I dont think they are spitting out near 500K/month right now either. Based on that theory, they would be somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 mil by the end of March. The straight math puts the number very close to the former though.

That's about as brave as I am...

I won't quote expletive, it's too mean lol...