Question now is (atleast for me) how many of those 400k will be the 60gb configs, and how many 20gig configs. It will already hard enough to get a PS3 at all (i can't even preorder yet) but If I can't get a 60gb unit, I think I'd rather wait longer than settle for a 20gb unit. I suppose I could just grab whatever I can get, and if it's a 20gb unit I could always ebay it. I never really supported the 2 SKU idea MS and Sony seem to have.
400 K ps3 in USA, 100 K ps3 in Japan at launch
- Thread starter MasterDisaster
- Start date
I see no reason for them to make any 20G models with yields like this. They probably lose less on the $600 SKU and now they'll CLEARLY sell everything they can make so why bother with the "entry-level" units.
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yeah I suppose you are right. I sure hope a high percentage will be 60gb units.
So the ps3 will launch with 400k in the US on launch day. I really don't see how this is such a MASSIVE shortage as some people to make it out to be. Here's a fun chart that shows how much past systems have launched at launch day in the US.
Console Dreamcast ps2 360 ps3
initial sales 514,000 500,000 first 326K 400K
By the end of the 1 million - 1.2 million more by the end of this year.
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/06/sony-1mln-to-1-2mln-ps3s-for-north-america-in-06/
Console Dreamcast ps2 360 ps3
initial sales 514,000 500,000 first 326K 400K
By the end of the 1 million - 1.2 million more by the end of this year.
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/09/06/sony-1mln-to-1-2mln-ps3s-for-north-america-in-06/
Well, we know that 326k wasn't really enough, and that was for second place MS, not proud king of the hill Sony with legions waiting. On the other hand, the $600 price is going to help them a bit.
What's your number for "not enough to launch with" then?
I'm not saying 400k for the US is a good number by any means. Heck 2 million probably isn't enough. I'm just saying Sony launching 400k consoles in the US isn't "game over" as some people are making it out to be. Console shortages are inevitable at launch. Demand will always exceed supply.
scooby_dooby
Legend
Just get the base model and slap one of these on there http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=1516257&CatId=0
80gb for $80.
I'll pass. you add that price with the price it costs for a memory card reader and wifi and it's easy to see the value with the 60gb version for people who want to use those features. HDMI built in doesnt hurt either. Plus I like the chrome addons a little more than plane black.
Oh, I'd agree with that. Nothing that happens in 2006 is "game over". On the other hand, the HD-DVD forces just got a little more oxygen for their tiny little fame, and that can't be a good thing for Sony if that sucker turns into a cheery glow because of it.
Personally I think 2million is the worst case scenario, while 6million is the best case scenario. The truth will be in the middle. However, it might lie a little bit closer to 2million if the there's not a serious jump in blue diode availability.
Yikes, 2 million at the end of March would mean, what, 10-11 million by the end of 2007?
I think thats where the concern really is, not the launch quantities, but what it means mid-term into 2008. MS plans to sell 10 million by the end of 2006 alone and going into 2007 as a "Halo Year", Nintendo can probably make Wii's at will. Thats the real problem for Sony with this news, developer support in 2008.
I think thats where the concern really is, not the launch quantities, but what it means mid-term into 2008. MS plans to sell 10 million by the end of 2006 alone and going into 2007 as a "Halo Year", Nintendo can probably make Wii's at will. Thats the real problem for Sony with this news, developer support in 2008.
Geo,
Very Good points. You've been here long enough to know all about yeilds and shortages. We only have to look back at the x800xt pe for a perfect example. These things don't improve simply because you wish for them to. With hardware specs tightly locked down (such as Blu Ray) there has to be breakthrough in the current process to get more lasers going. They simply cannot change the specs and rework the process. This is what happened with the x850xt and how they got the yeilds up. Unfortunately it was too late by then, as the 6800 series had already saturated the market and re established nvidia.
For me, it comes down what I'd been saying for a while now. There was no need for BR in the PS3. It was someone's bright idea that could still work but does not look so promising atm. A $399 similarly spec'd PS3 with a DVD9 drive would wipe the floor with the 360 simply due to the Playstation name and existing install base. It could have been released much ealier and in much greater numbers. Even if launched in Spring on 06 this PS3 verion of mine would be in a commanding lead from the 360 already. Ofcourse, I was ridiculed tons for such lame thinking but it's ok
BR not only delayed the PS3 but also made it much more expensive to the consumer and Sony. Now the consumer has to rethink the purchase as the price is higher. Add 2 games + controller and you're well in the $800 range. For Sony corporate, the added costs and the higher margin on loss per console means it'll take much longer before the PS3 becomes profitable. For this whole thing to work for them, BR simply has to be a smash hit. Not only does it have to beat HD DVD but also DVD and not just on paper spec and reviews but in number of sales. People need to keep in mind, it's DVD, not HD DVD that's the ultimate competition. Like I said, it could all work out in the end but they're certainly going to go through some self inflicted rough times in order to theoretically get there.
Very Good points. You've been here long enough to know all about yeilds and shortages. We only have to look back at the x800xt pe for a perfect example. These things don't improve simply because you wish for them to. With hardware specs tightly locked down (such as Blu Ray) there has to be breakthrough in the current process to get more lasers going. They simply cannot change the specs and rework the process. This is what happened with the x850xt and how they got the yeilds up. Unfortunately it was too late by then, as the 6800 series had already saturated the market and re established nvidia.
For me, it comes down what I'd been saying for a while now. There was no need for BR in the PS3. It was someone's bright idea that could still work but does not look so promising atm. A $399 similarly spec'd PS3 with a DVD9 drive would wipe the floor with the 360 simply due to the Playstation name and existing install base. It could have been released much ealier and in much greater numbers. Even if launched in Spring on 06 this PS3 verion of mine would be in a commanding lead from the 360 already. Ofcourse, I was ridiculed tons for such lame thinking but it's ok
BR not only delayed the PS3 but also made it much more expensive to the consumer and Sony. Now the consumer has to rethink the purchase as the price is higher. Add 2 games + controller and you're well in the $800 range. For Sony corporate, the added costs and the higher margin on loss per console means it'll take much longer before the PS3 becomes profitable. For this whole thing to work for them, BR simply has to be a smash hit. Not only does it have to beat HD DVD but also DVD and not just on paper spec and reviews but in number of sales. People need to keep in mind, it's DVD, not HD DVD that's the ultimate competition. Like I said, it could all work out in the end but they're certainly going to go through some self inflicted rough times in order to theoretically get there.
Nintendo doesn't need Sony to hand them anything on a silver platter...it be contaminated with Sony's bad luck.
Joking aside, I believe Sony feels that the PS3 is already starting loose to Wii, hence that control change and two SKU. It's DS vs PSP all over again. Is PS3 going to follow in the same footstep of PSP? UMD failed to catch on as they intended. Sure, UMD is great for games (more capacity than the DS cart), but DS's cart isn't holding the DS back. Developer will work around the limitation of the system, just as long as it's worth it. So DVD will not be holding back any of the next-gen console.
Is the market ready for Bluray? I don't think so. Especially with both HD-DVD and Bluray battling it out like this...people with rather wait, because DVD isn't that unbearable to live with. Sort like why haven't millions of Japanese switched from their PS2 to the 360? Because the PS2 isn't that unbearable to live with. Only early adopters will pull the trigger on HD-DVD and Bluray. When will the rest of the people be ready to make the cut over? When both camps agree on one standard. Here is the problem, Sony is very stuburn. Even when everyone made their decisions, Sony refused to accept it and continue to push their format.
In short, Sony will lose out to Nintendo in short term. However, when you're as big as Sony, you don't make short term plan. You make long term plan; and that will mean some form of HD video...
I'm not familiar with japan....so maybe that could all be right. but it's just hard to believe that playstation isn't aiming mainly to be the most common game system. I do kind of feel sorry for sony but then again they are screwing over the consumers with Bluray.
It's the supply if blue laser diodes that is the problem. It is likely they have been holding off commencing manufacture of the diodes to improve yield. Once they realise that they can't improve yield further before starting manufacture, they will bite the bullet and start manufacturing at the lower yields. This would explain everything.
No, setting up new blue ray fabs will take a long time, and only a few foundries will be able to do it. This is a long term solution, only needed if blue laser diode yield doesn't ever improve. Hopefully it will never be needed.
OT
no offense Expletive
when i say that i don't want to be mean and quote you it was about be mean for sony defender.
OT
when did they start to produce diode?
for some time I guess and but like all the others companies in the bizzness they haven't manage to improve the diode's "yeld" >> supplie issue for the whole bizzness.
So they launch mid november taking in account logistic (quick for japan long for US depending on costs airplanes vs cargos) I will round up and say that production for launch unit will end in october.
So as far as diode is concern i will say they have almost two month add this to the actual stock.
Sadly iit 's adding up to 500K, so my prediction 2 millions is optimistic and it take in account the yelds improvement.
As far as diode are concerned it seems that electronic companies expect a back to normal situation in spring 2007, so ii think that Sony can easily reach 10 millions units by end of 2007 and more if the market is enthousiatic.
that is a bad news for the whole bizzness 2007 won't be a good year.
when Sony will have recover from shortage it will be a bad time of the year for selling expensive toy. MS have already experience it.
The problem is not how Sony will do in the first year but how will do xbox in its second year. Sony won't narrow the gap in install base quickly>> IF MS do well they will never recover, If MS is close of its goal +/- 10 millions in one year they will probably chose a more radical pricing politic to take advantage of initail ps3 shortage.
They will have in march three time the instal base sony has probably more>> editors will change theirs minds. If the 65nm shrink transition goes nice (not a given) MS can chose to cut 100$ on each SKU ok they will lose as much as sony per unit but they will really take advantage of sony initial weakness this weakness won't last.
In that case both system will be at best on part for most of the time of this generation but the xbox will be the leading dev plateform witch almost negate sony hardware advantage.
Sony is in big trouble MS has to execute properly and has to be aggressive.
no offense Expletive
when i say that i don't want to be mean and quote you it was about be mean for sony defender.
OT
when did they start to produce diode?
for some time I guess and but like all the others companies in the bizzness they haven't manage to improve the diode's "yeld" >> supplie issue for the whole bizzness.
So they launch mid november taking in account logistic (quick for japan long for US depending on costs airplanes vs cargos) I will round up and say that production for launch unit will end in october.
So as far as diode is concern i will say they have almost two month add this to the actual stock.
Sadly iit 's adding up to 500K, so my prediction 2 millions is optimistic and it take in account the yelds improvement.
As far as diode are concerned it seems that electronic companies expect a back to normal situation in spring 2007, so ii think that Sony can easily reach 10 millions units by end of 2007 and more if the market is enthousiatic.
that is a bad news for the whole bizzness 2007 won't be a good year.
when Sony will have recover from shortage it will be a bad time of the year for selling expensive toy. MS have already experience it.
The problem is not how Sony will do in the first year but how will do xbox in its second year. Sony won't narrow the gap in install base quickly>> IF MS do well they will never recover, If MS is close of its goal +/- 10 millions in one year they will probably chose a more radical pricing politic to take advantage of initail ps3 shortage.
They will have in march three time the instal base sony has probably more>> editors will change theirs minds. If the 65nm shrink transition goes nice (not a given) MS can chose to cut 100$ on each SKU ok they will lose as much as sony per unit but they will really take advantage of sony initial weakness this weakness won't last.
In that case both system will be at best on part for most of the time of this generation but the xbox will be the leading dev plateform witch almost negate sony hardware advantage.
Sony is in big trouble MS has to execute properly and has to be aggressive.
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If there really was a "problem" with the production, whatever the problem might be, just "fixing" it should be the breakthrough.