360 To Do Worse Than Xbox This Round?

[Freak'n Big Panda]

although this prediction sounds like way out there atm I seriously think it's a possibility. if the revolution brings something to the table that hasn't been done before (and capture the 'traditional non-gamers' in the process) I could easily see it surpassing the xbox360. PS3 will undoubtably win next gen however. If sony ever gets it into production anyway x_x

 

[Sonic]

Just by sheer number I would think PS3 will end up selling the most consoles. That doesn't mean the Xbox 360 will do bad.

The Xbox 360 should be very competitive with PS3 in the American and European markets. It might not be Genesis vs. SNES scale but the ratio should definitely be better. If the Xbox 360 gets a few must have games and MS ramps up the production like reported then they will have a very nice holiday on their hands.

PS3 will have the hype by the holiday season but we will see if that hype is enoug to crush any momentum Microsoft can garner for its console.

The Revolution is someting I'm interested in. I think it will do much better than the Gamecube did.

 

[Platon]

Sure MS doesn't have the tech edge this time around, but maybe they don't need this time either. When they came with the xbox, they had nothing, no franchises they could rely on, developers were sceptical, no brand recognition or fanbase to rely on either and many thought they would be dead on arrival so why buy one of those xboxes. So atleast they needed something that would be better than the competition which was hardware.

This time around though they have gained a lot of what they didn't have last time, so just because the hardware might be a bit weaker, I don't see as a huge dissadvantage and most important of all, there is no way to predict how next gen is goign to end without knowing the nr.1 factor, which is price...

 

[Ben-Nice]

I think Peter Moore may beg to differ with this analysis

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/697/697526p2.html

On E3 and Sony

Peter: E3 is all about the holidays. We will have a strong a lineup as I've ever gone into E3 with. And that goes back a few years. This year will be a very interesting E3. It almost gets to be put-up or shut-up situation for some people. Our primary focus is on showing you great games. We'll have 80 games for Xbox 360 by June of this year. We'll be unveiling new games for the holiday as well as giving you, as I mentioned earlier, a better perspective on Gears of War.

For Sony, E3 a year ago was all about high-powered video, CG, and my suspicion would be that they feel the pressure to have hands-on playables. I don't work for that company. You know, they've got problems. I've got problems. And our problems are all about fulfilling the overwhelming demand for the Xbox 360.

They have got some challenges. Their challenges are a myriad of problems bringing a product to market this year on a global basis. We've got some challenges: meeting demand for a product that's already in market that millions of people are already enjoying and we'll have so many games, such a deep experience from an Xbox Live point of view, and we'll be in 30 countries by the end of this month. So by the end of next week we're up and running in 30 countries with millions of units flowing in and our primary and only focus will be to fulfill demand. Sony on the other hand has got huge problems as you always do in bringing a product to market, launching it, getting it delivered around the world, getting your yields up, delivering against a format in Blue-Ray that's not yet mass market, delivering against unknown silicon issues, the list goes on. They're a very talented company with a huge check list of things they need to do. I sleep easy knowing that my only problem is fulfilling demand.

 

[Corwin_B]

If Nintendo succeeds in their gamble to expand the gaming public with the Revolution (which they very well may do in Japan, I'm not so sure about Europe and US), then MS may very well end losing global market share, but at the same time eat into Sony's market share and even turn a profit over this generation.

Pricing and availability at Christmas 2006 will also be important factors.

 

[Nicked]

If Nintendo succeeds in their gamble to expand the gaming public with the Revolution (which they very well may do in Japan, I'm not so sure about Europe and US), then MS may very well end losing global market share, but at the same time eat into Sony's market share and even turn a profit over this generation.

Pricing and availability at Christmas 2006 will also be important factors.

If MS lose marketshare they aren't going to make a profit. Well, only if the overall market increases 2-300%

 

[liolio]

First I agree with Sonic, I see Nintendo do better this round.
Good news for MS (if at least they keep their market share),
if they are next next gen (lol), Sony will start with some less market share and so less power on editors.
For me, i can't see the xbox360 go the dreamcast way, editors support is a lot stronger, but i think all predictions are bound to the number MS will release in JUNe (ie 5/6 millions units goal), if they are far from that goal I can change my view.
Some time I'm under the impression that this kind of analyse are done with "ps3 a lot more powerfull than xbox360" expectation in mind.
Anyway, unlike Sega, Ms on marketting point of view can show that both system are almost on par (I think the PS3 have an edge butbut in his early lifetime I don't even know).
Shortly I'm beggin for Xbox360 sale numbers, three month left (E3 will also be fucking important, in some way MS haven't lie enought, they should have shown some cgi of what the xbox360 future title should be, not kidding, now the console is out it's difficukt to do so with the same strenght)

 

[Mythos]

Well MS with the X360 has their challenges cut out for them if they are to compete at a higher level.

First- they have to over come the pschological mass market level in pushing their product across all walks of life and not be known as the console for the hardcore gamer. [Expand their market]

IMO, right now MS are coming in on the console market on the top half (Hardcore niche). Which Sony already covers in addition expands down towards Nintendos kiddie market.

Really, MS has lots of hardwork to do to take away market share from both Sony and Nintendo. If they don't expand their market they can be smashed (or Niche'd) out the market from the Top (Sony) and the bottom (Nintendo).

 

[weaksauce]

IMO xbox came as far as it did because of the power. Now I think it will have kind of the same game library, but it ain't got the power! haw haw

ALL HAIL PS3, power and games.



Edit: people also bought it because of the media features it got after chipping, but it seems rather limited now.

 

[liolio]

I don't know how could MS could have keep up with Sony this round powerwize.
Even if they have come with a boost/tweaked Xenon that should have been more efficient than cell, the raw numbers (read peak performance, even if they are meanless...) should have been in PS3 favor.
They could have beef up the xenos or xenon for have an equal number of transistors in system, but performance wize it's not needed, i think xenos will do his job as well as the RSX, and a bigger cache for xenon shouldn't have been consider like more powerfull(helpless for meaningless big numbers), the same for a slightly better bus system (ie 192 or 256 bit to the 512MB ram) stupid but this the way lots of people think...).
Nobody know by how much the ps3 will lead performance wize, can be insignifiant, Anyway, even with a bigger transistors budget, due to design choice, they shouldn't have been able to keep up on raw numbers.

Consumers ignorance is a blessed favor to Sony marketting. Cell peak number are blessed too (but idon't this was made on purpose it's just come handy

 

[winterbird@nerdshack.com]

IMO xbox came as far as it did because of the power. Now I think it will have kind of the same game library, but it ain't got the power! haw haw

ALL HAIL PS3, power and games.



Edit: people also bought it because of the media features it got after chipping, but it seems rather limited now.

If that's the way you're thinking, I think you are in for a rude shock this gen.

MS may have a happy ground between PS3 and Rev that's attractive to developers and consumers.

 

[Griffith]

So the analysts say. I say...uhhh no.

http://www.in-stat.com/press.asp?ID=1614&sku=IN0602145ME

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=30453


THE XBOX 360 will lose Microsoft a big chunk of its games console market share, with Nintendo standing to benefit, new research predicts.
The Xbox 360 is expected to hold only 28 per cent of the market by 2010, down from the 34 percent share of the original Xbox.

Meanwhile Nintendo will increase its slice of the market from 15 to 21 per cent, with its upcoming Revolution console. Sony will leave its current troubles behind it to remain unchanged, with the new PlayStation 3 holding about 50 per cent of the market, just as the old PS2 does now.

Of course it will do worse, xbox1 sells 23 milions of units in 4 years, x360 will be around 5 after 7 months and 10 milions after 1 years, so I imagine that this will never sell 23 milions as xbox, great thought, I believe that analyst thought with other part of body than brain

 

[liolio]

griffith
x360 will be around 5 after 7 months and 10 milions after 1 years

At this time Will is still one kind of wishfull thinking .
MS can lie on numbers on purpose, like "no the XBOX360 isn't a dreamcast"
I don't hope that this will happen (bad for consumers) but I wait for june MS sale number, if MS don't do well they will be blown away by PS3 (they already know this so the "first on the market strategy").

edit i would add that at this time Ms seems still far from its goal, but we will see, but they have to do better and quick, i think E3 and summer hollyday won't help them...

 

[Corwin_B]

If MS lose marketshare they aren't going to make a profit. Well, only if the overall market increases 2-300%

That's nonsense : Nintendo's marketshare was smaller than XBox last gen, that didn't prevent them from making a profit with the Cube...
XBox was a huge money hole due to horrible contracts with Intel and Nvidia (plus some fixed cost parts like the hard drive), mistakes MS avoided with the 360.

 

[liolio]

you're no wrong but if the ps3 bom seems superior to the xbox360 one, we still can't describe the xbox as a cheap piece of hardware (huge cpu, huge gpu when they will shrink it they will add the edram chip, 512 mB of ram).

 

[Griffith]

At this time Will is still one kind of wishfull thinking .
MS can lie on numbers on purpose, like "no the XBOX360 isn't a dreamcast"
I don't hope that this will happen (bad for consumers) but I wait for june MS sale number, if MS don't do well they will be blown away by PS3 (they already know this so the "first on the market strategy").

edit i would add that at this time Ms seems still far from its goal, but we will see, but they have to do better and quick, i think E3 and summer hollyday won't help them...

last month in shortage situation, they sell 1,6 milions of units, add this to christmas sells and I think that total 5 milions of june is really really feasible, and they are solving the shortage problem
why you think that they seems otherwise?

 

[liolio]

I hope i'm still neutral but MS offer grows on me
i have to leave will finish my post later sorry
edit i'm back sorry again edit
i'm not sure if 1.6million figure is from the start (launch) or sale after Chrismmass.
Anyway how many XBOX360 units sold for chrismass?

 

[Nicked]

That's nonsense

Oh really? So the Xbox 360 isn't being sold for a substantial loss? They don't rely on economies of scale to push the HW cost down? Microsoft have the first-party clout of Nintendo? News to me.

 

[Corwin_B]

Oh really? So the Xbox 360 isn't being sold for a substantial loss? They don't rely on economies of scale to push the HW cost down? Microsoft have the first-party clout of Nintendo? News to me.

The nonsense is in equalling marketshare with profit, which is exactly what you did in your initial post "If MS lose marketshare they aren't going to make a profit.". The example of Nintendo is there to prove that you can make profit without a huge marketshare.

 

[_xxx_]

The Xbox 360 is expected to hold only 28 per cent of the market by 2010, down from the 34 percent share of the original Xbox.

Does this information come from some parallel universe? I'll eat my socks if the old Xbox has more than 10% of the global market.

EDIT: nevermind, I just realized he's talking about the US market only.