360 To Do Worse Than Xbox This Round?

[Ben-Nice]

So the analysts say. I say...uhhh no.

http://www.in-stat.com/press.asp?ID=1614&sku=IN0602145ME

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=30453


THE XBOX 360 will lose Microsoft a big chunk of its games console market share, with Nintendo standing to benefit, new research predicts.
The Xbox 360 is expected to hold only 28 per cent of the market by 2010, down from the 34 percent share of the original Xbox.

Meanwhile Nintendo will increase its slice of the market from 15 to 21 per cent, with its upcoming Revolution console. Sony will leave its current troubles behind it to remain unchanged, with the new PlayStation 3 holding about 50 per cent of the market, just as the old PS2 does now.

 

[Carl B]

I was actually going to post this earlier today as further evidence into the 'total wash' nature of the analyst trade - especially when you have certain analysts saying things that are diametrically opposed to what others are saying - but I thought I'd let it slide.

In truth I don't even have reason to necessarily disagree with In-Stat on this, and could make the case either way, but the arbitrariness of it all is what stands out. So I'm hoping that those who have defended the analyst game before don't come in here as the vocal forum members denouncing this.

 

[Megadrive1988]

unless Im mistaken, Microsoft held less than 20% of the market this past generation. they're expected to reach at least 30% with the Xbox 360.

I'd expect Nintendo to make a gain in console marketshare for the first time, after losing more and more marketshare from the SNES to the N64 to the Gamecube. they'll go from the upper teens with Gamecube to at least the mid 20s with Revolution.

Sony's share will fall from the lower 70s / upper 60s to the mid to upper 50s.

 

[Inane_Dork]

This prediction is pretty unbelievable. Not that the rest are believable, mind you.

 

[Guden Oden]

I never listen to these analcysts.

Most of them have no more a clue of what'll happen in the future than any random person's grandmother.

 

[Platon]

I never listen to these analcysts.

Most of them have no more a clue of what'll happen in the future than any random person's grandmother.

I think granmothers would actually do a better job...

 

[StefanS]

unless Im mistaken, Microsoft held less than 20% of the market this past generation. they're expected to reach at least 30% with the Xbox 360.

I think they are talking about the American market situation. Thus the ca. 30% Xbox market share.

 

[Magnum PI]

someone pretending it can predict 2010 marketshare of next gen console which are currently at the very beggining of their lifecycle ? BS !

 

[Magnum PI]

really market analysis aren't free.
this is marketing.

 

[Rodéric]

I vote yes !
What ? It's not an election ? *shrug*

I can see the Xbox360 going the way of the Dreamcast, but not remembered with as much love...

 

[Sethamin]

You know what's awesome about being an analyst? You can predict how 3 products will do against each other despite two them being over 6 months from release! Now that's awesome. Or maybe it's just sad. Or third thought, maybe if we don't pay any attention to them they'll go away.

 

[ROG27]

I never listen to fortunetelle..Er, I mean analysts.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I predict that the Revolution will be filled with pudding, and the PS3 will be a sentient drone that will turn your appliances against you.

 

[superguy]

I can see the Xbox360 going the way of the Dreamcast, but not remembered with as much love...

This is a nice thing for a moderator to say. Wouldn't be stood for if you said the same of PS3. You'd be run out of modship just like that last Xbox fan mod was because he wasn't pro-Sony enough.

Anyway, it's not that crazy a prediction. Who really knows. We've seen the gamut of predictions from these analysts.

That is pretty close to Xbox1 marketshare so it's not that out there to me. Besides MS would probably make money off that this time around.

I dunno, we will see. On the other hand Sony is so late it's kinda hard to imagine them pulling the same share as last time. And it's REALLY hard to imagine Nintendo gaining.

Between Sony and MS I dont know, but I would feel comfortable predicting Nintendo will lose a lot of share.

 

[dantruon]

unfortunately i must agreed with the analyst this time round, this is because of the perfomance of the xbox360 in Japan and the fact that the PS3 is the better of two console overall on paper, and the game that PS3 has, i cant see them do any better than xbox.

 

[Sonic]

binky, do not make comments like that about a moderator again. You are being warned. This is the only warning in respect to this, do not do it again.

 

[Nicked]

Its easy to say "well, these analysts get paid and know more than we do"...but, damn, in the last week theres been a half-dozen analyses, each reaching widely varied conclusions.

I mean, my prediction is
130M
45M
30M

everyone gains, for the next-generation, but no one is paying me

Even in the US the PS2s marketshare is closer to 60%.

 

[superguy]

edited by moderator:

Because of your continuing attacks and insult to the moderators of this board you are being banned from the console forums for one week. If you come back and do the same you will be banned permanently.

edited by admin:

The ban has been moved to a permanent lock.

 

[Sonic]

Thread reopened.

 

[Edge]

In all fairness to the analysts, Xbox had huge technological advantage over the PS2, and GCN, but this generation, MS has lost that technological advantage to Sony, the company which already has the most mindshare. Plus Microsoft's HUGE loss of Japan, which will result in Sony's PS3 getting the majority of Japanese developer support, and when looking at the tons of Japanese games that are released for the PS2, make a huge difference. Also Microsoft's harddisk and Live! advantage are being negated with similar options on the PS3 this generation. Blu-ray has added more functionality to PS3, and a coolness factor, missing from the 360. All these things will compound themselves against MS.

In my humble opinion anyway, but the market will grow, and MS may see itself selling 30 million Xbox 360's which is not too bad. The 360 is a great machine, but Sony has so many greater positives going for it.