2006: Battle for the Living Room

[Carl B]

what about in 2008 with your $100 dual-core athlon, 500gb hdd, and fresh install of windows vista? What then?

Well and that's what it comes down to essentially. I agree that pervasive Vista is something that in a void would give Microsoft an incredible advantage, because it would put the onus on the consumer simply to buy an extender, whatever form that might take. Even with fierce competetion, it's still a very large advantage down the line. But the question is, between now and 2008 (when it's reasonable to expect Vista uptake to really hit it's stride), is the consumer mindshare already going to start to solidify behind some other brand or concept, or will the market by then still remain small, weak, and fragmented?

Myself, I plan on having a Vista PC - and may buy a 360 simply for it's cheap extender value alone when I do have it - but between now and then any number of things could happen to shift the market. Everyone one day having Vista isn't the same as Vista becoming the center of the digital lifestyle (Google certainly believes in web apps and remote storage), just as Sony automatically* selling over 100 million PS3's throughout it's life doesn't guarantee that the PS3 will ever play a role beyond a game console in people's homes.

This is a 'war' that will be won many years down the line, and that we can only make predictions on at the moment... but that I believe will start in earnest this year. All the competetitors mentioned I think have unique advantages, and offer at least something that prevents them from being totally rolled over by the others. They all seem though to be going for the same sort of thing: either a computer with more of a intuitive consumer electronics interface (Apple, Intel, Microsoft), or a consumer electronics device with enhanced functionality (Sony)... and possibly Linux. And maybe Apple already straddles that CE/computer line these days.

* - not automatic, but the figure serves a purpose within the context of the discussion

 

[Shifty Geezer]

what about in 2008 with your $100 dual-core athlon, 500gb hdd, and fresh install of windows vista? What then?

If they were that cheap, perhaps. At the moment the cheapest PCs here are about £300 for what was 'top of the range' maybe 4 years ago. Going by that same scale, 2008 will net me an Athlon65 and maybe 200 GB HDD for £300. If PCs were sold at lower prices, it'd have to be on the console model - sell at a loss and make back on content. I don't think any company could afford to loose that much on the hardware without having secured a large proportion of online content sales, and no-one will secure that much without having provided a low-cost box to hook the customers.

That's why MS and Sony are growing into the field with consoles, covering the hardware losses with games, and Dell, HP, Sony, MS and Apple aren't selling $100 PCs alongside online distribution of content yet

 

[wco81]

Average Selling Prices of PCs have declined a lot in the last 5-10 years but the price of Windows has remained constant.

Or in relative terms, while other components have gotten cheaper, the cost of Windows as a percentage of the BOM in a PC has increased.

There is no way MS is giving up its fat margins to get into the living room. IF they priced the MCE version of Vista at say $20, it might make those MCE boxes price-competitive with CE boxes at retail. But when you account for the subsidized boxes from the satellite and cable cos., there's no way.

 

[flf]

Sony just took a major hit on it's ability to provide movie content: Their distributorship of MGM's movie portfolio was pulled by the controlling owners.

Sony Corp. and the private equity partners that purchased Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer last year will split up, ending an acrimonious alliance marked by missed financial targets and a strategic stalemate. Providence Equity Partners and the Texas Pacific Group, which control a majority of the board, will exercise an option in their agreement to dump Sony as a distributor of the MGM movies.

Source: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-predict1jan01,0,3503327.story

Also, this same article mentions Google's imminent foray into home computing, and it's "Google Cube" device that will provide a connection for the television/entertainment center:

Sources say Google has been in negotiations with Wal-Mart Stores Inc., among other retailers, to sell a Google PC. The machine would run an operating system created by Google, not Microsoft's Windows, which is one reason it would be so cheap — perhaps as little as a couple of hundred dollars.

Bear Stearns analysts speculated in a research report last month that consumers would soon see something called "Google Cubes" — a small hardware box that could allow users to move songs, videos and other digital files between their computers and TV sets.

This should throw a monkey in the wrench.

 

[wco81]

Um that LA Times piece is a prediction, not a reporting of an actual event.

 

[flf]

Um that LA Times piece is a prediction, not a reporting of an actual event.

Wups, you're right. However, I think the Google bit is a prediction based upon events currently underway.

 

[seismologist]

what about in 2008 with your $100 dual-core athlon, 500gb hdd, and fresh install of windows vista? What then?

Well then you buy one of those and hook it up to your TV.

 

[patsu]

No, but the principle's the same that you were mentioning. 'Sony' per se may be rubbish at producing software, but buying in talent to write software can produce the goods still makes it Sony software and it can be good.

Agree, but I don't think their shortfall is with bad software. IMHO, they have good, workable software but they are "all over the place". e.g., in Sony's PSP Media Manager... it's not bundled with PSP, and it does not address the whole PSP media extender workflow. It's another "piecemeal" solution like many sharewares out there.

They would be able to control the entire user experience better if they can spec it up better and follow through. Incidentally may be this gentleman will do the job: http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1430

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well then you buy one of those and hook it up to your TV.

and hunch over yourt coffee table with a keyboard and mouse? sounds great...

My point was that in 2 or 3 years even low-end PC's will have more than enough processing power to act as media PC's, and they will also all come with windows vista. It only makes sense to just use an extender which will be cheap. I'm not saying the 360 will be the extender of choice.

 

[mckmas8808]

They would be able to control the entire user experience better if they can spec it up better and follow through. Incidentally may be this gentleman will do the job: http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1430

Wow that's giving me hope that Sony really is serious about this!

Are we really going to get a real Sony:Connect? It looks like we really are going be able to download music and movies on the fly with our PSPs. Hopefully Tim Schaaffcan bring that togetherness to Sony just like Apple has.

 

[patsu]

what about in 2008 with your $100 dual-core athlon, 500gb hdd, and fresh install of windows vista? What then?

I know many of us don't mind plugging a PC or an extender to the TV, but in my mind... the PC camp still have some way to go if they want to reach out to the general public:

* They are too complicated and error prone (Too many fail points). Really, many consumers I met and support are VERY "dumb". They are smart at work, but when it comes to using daily appliances... it's like they just switch off 90% of their brain. The main gripe I have with the PC makers is that they are not solving the real living room problems. Instead their interests are only to protect their existing investments and then extend it (on top of a very complicated stack) to offer a "me-too" solution.

* My bet is still on a proprietary box that works standalone (like a settop box) and is well-supported by 1 and only 1 company. The support issues between MS, PC makers and peripheral makers will take their toll on the spread of Media PC. I know Media PC represented 50% of all PCs shipped last year, but to me it may just mean that the price point is low enough for curious people to do a "why not". What actually gets used and deployed in the living room may be very low (only among the highly technical folks).

Large companies have been throwing money at the living room for eons. Most of them are not making any real headway into the hearts and minds of the consumers. The power of a PC is not an advantage. In the future, smaller devices will be sufficient to power all media needs.

 

[scooby_dooby]

If consumers are so stupid, how do you explain the success of IPOD's?

Obviously the majority of people are capable of downloading media to their PC's and building a library.

Also, Media PC doesn't need to 'spread', media PC is just a stop gap, windows vista will spread since it will be the next edition of windows, the media centre functionality is built in.

This will leave the door open for a variety of extenders from different manufacturers, and I believe we'll see a batlle between thse PC extenders, not some all-in-one standalone box, that seperates your media from your the PC.

 

[avaya]

If consumers are so stupid, how do you explain the success of IPOD's?

A 5 year old can use iTunes, it's that simple.

This is the primary reason for the continued success of the iPod. Usually the CE indsutry will have reacted and the market would be carved up but the software component that Apple is providing is so well implemented (and designed) that others are finding it a pain to compete.

 

[scooby_dooby]

And this model will be mimicked for online distribution of SD and HD video files.

Also, Wireless networking will also become extremely cheap and easy to set-up. Computers will all come with windows vista. $50 media extenders will start selling. Widespread media-centre adoption will begin.

These extenders will even offer interfaces to schedule downloads using the PC as the central hub, so in essense they will offer all the functionality of a standalone, but with the added flexibility of keeping the media stored on the PC.

 

[patsu]

If consumers are so stupid, how do you explain the success of IPOD's?

Obviously the majority of people are capable of downloading media to their PC's and building a library.

Hm ? Explain which part of iPod ? It's easy to use thanks to its minimalist button layout, integration with iTunes software *and* the Music Store. It's designed for dummies. Prior to iPod, MP3 players from PC makers are usually geeky, full of options and buttons, lacks seamless integration with music stores, etc. etc.

Also, Media PC doesn't need to 'spread', media PC is just a stop gap, windows vista will spread since it will be the next edition of windows, the media centre functionality is built in.

This will leave the door open for a variety of extenders from different manufacturers, and I believe we'll see a batlle between thse PC extenders, not some all-in-one standalone box, that seperates your media from your the PC.

This is a MS centric view of the world. They will attract their own share of users in the living room or perhaps the study room. You're assuming that people have many sophisticated media needs from the get-go.

Just to provide a different perspective...
Like iPod, the living room may be "won" by just a point solution (Do 1 task and do it very very well). And then any Mac or PC can be the juke box or extender outside the living room (e.g, to the Internet, portable devices and workplace)... not just Vista or Media PC.

This thread is also missing the existing brands in the living room. The cable operators and the telephone guys. Some friend wanted me to look at: http://2wire.com. I was told their B.O.M. cost is close to USD$600.00. The operators bought into their idea and products because it has many sophisticated features in supporting end users that makes it scalable to large number of users very well.

BTW, we may have difficulty agreeing because "Success" or "Won" is not defined in this thread.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The world is MS-centric. Why do you think tis is going to change any time soon?

 

[seismologist]

and hunch over yourt coffee table with a keyboard and mouse? sounds great...

For flipping through photos it doesn't seem like too much of a burden. It's not like you're sitting down at the television to write your doctoral thesis.

 

[patsu]

The world is MS-centric. Why do you think tis is going to change any time soon?

Hm ? Not the living room the last time I checked. By your definitions, "Play for Sure" would have taken the world by storm.

 

[mckmas8808]

The world is MS-centric. Why do you think tis is going to change any time soon?

Huh? No it's not.

 

[aaronspink]

Does that PC have an SD card reader?

Not always but it has USB 2.0 which is supported by every camera out there.