2006: Battle for the Living Room

[Megadrive1988]

xbdestroya - have you heard about the speculation from realworldtech, the guys that did one of the major Cell articles, about a possible Apple-Intel entertainment device ?

This device is supposed to counter the MS-IBM Xenon/Xbox360 and Sony-IBM-Toshiba Cell/PlayStation 3.

or maybe to take on the next-next generation Xbox and PS4

Battlelines of the Digital Living Room (A Musing)

In a previous article, this author pointed out that the CELL processor appears to be the cornerstone of STI’s strategy in winning the battle of the digital living room. That is, the CELL processor will form the foundation of Sony’s renewed gambit to bypass the traditional personal computer and capture the digital hub of household communications and entertainment, a lucrative market that is also targeted by Microsoft, Intel, and Apple. Interestingly enough, Microsoft is well positioned regardless of whether the traditional personal computer or the game console wins the battle for the heart of the digital hub. Microsoft can adjust and retain relevance regardless of the outcome of the battle of the digital living room. However, the strategic alliances formed by Microsoft with IBM, and Sony with Toshiba and IBM leaves Intel and Apple out in the cold if the game consoles gain ascendancy as the hub of the digital living room. With the battlelines as given, it seems natural that Apple and Intel would seek to create a third alliance, one that can deliver both the silicon and the software stack to compete for the digital living room against the MI (Microsoft-IBM) alliance and the STI alliance. With the shocking announcements of Apple’s transition from PPC to x86, pundits have espoused various theories and reasons behind the switch. While the short term justifications of the PPC970FX failing to reach 3 GHz, chronic PPC processor shortages from both IBM and Motorola (Freescale), or higher than desired processor prices may all have some validity, the long term justification may be as simple as the formation of the strategic alliance in the battle for the digital living room for players left out by the previous alliances.
A long time ago, before Steve Jobs returned to his role as Apple’s CEO, he was asked what he would do it he was placed in charge of reviving Apple’s flagging fortunes. Steve Job’s answer at the time was that he would keep the Macintosh alive as long as necessary to move on to the next big thing. Following this theme in the years after Steve Job’s return, Apple has positioned itself as the manufacturer of a digital hub where a Macintosh computer is the center of activity for various digital appliances such as a DV camcorder or a music player. In this sense, Sony’s gambit to capture the hub of the digital living room most directly threatens Apple’s future. More ominously, Apple would find that if it were ever pitted against Sony in a battle for the center of the digital hub, the prospect of using the CELL processor in the battle against Sony would be one that is highly unpalatable. That is, if Apple should adopt the CELL processor, it would become a de facto junior partner in the STI alliance. Then, if the battle of the digital living room materializes along the computer-game console battleline, Apple could find itself having to compete against Sony on a processor that Sony co-specified with IBM, a processor that has an unusual programming model with the tool chains being co-developed by Sony, and a processor that Sony plans to manufacture on a massive scale in its own fabrication plant.

The implication is that Apple would find the CELL processor to be undesirable from both technical and strategic perspectives. Steve Job’s ambiguous statements that “Intel has a good roadmap†may be a simple statement that expresses his belief that Intel has a roadmap that is better suited to Apple’s long term strategic plans. However, despite the drawbacks of a CELL-like processor on traditional computer centric applications, it seems clear that a heavily multi-threaded CELL-like approach to multimedia applications is the correct approach. The question then is if Intel will soon embark on or has already secretly embarked on the development of a CELL-like processor that will enable Apple and Intel to challenge the MI and STI alliances. From Apple’s perspective, a roadmap filled with low power mobile processors, cheap Celeron processors, and enhanced with the promise of new types of devices that can enable it to adjust more rapidly to changing market trends would be a roadmap that is ideal to its continued development as a corporate entity and continued battle to win the digital hub of future homes.

haha, it will be called Pippin 3

 

[expletive]

Of course it is. Programming a simple piece of software that acts as an interface between a PS3 and a OS is nothing extraordinary. I'm not sure what you're suggesting here. We've already got cheap products that do exactly that.

Youre talking about Sony replacing an entire corporate 'connected home' strategy with some software. Aside from the fact that the only decent software they have is what they bought from Sonic Foundry, anything they would spit out would be limited (and buggy) in scope compared to an end to end solution designed from the ground up.

Tell that to the average joe out there that has absolutely no idea on how to set up a small network at home.

When i "search for wireless networks" about 10 of them show up on the list, and thats just within range of my house. Judging from the prices theyre able to sell them out, wireless routers are selling by the boatload, SOMEONE is setting them up.

And it's an inconvinience to most people that don't work with computers for a living or don't use computers at all. Most average people that buy digital cameras don't even know how to resize or trim a picture on the computer - all they care is having it on their tv as quick as possible so they can show it to family / visitors on the big screen when they come over.

The quickest and most convinient way is:

1.) take picture(s) with Digital-Camera
2.) remove SD / CF / MS card
3.) insert into device that's physically already connected to the TV (PS3 etc)

What happens when they fill up their memory card and want to copy to a HD, burn them to a cd or email them to a friend/family member? (Or remove red-eye! )Are you making the argument that the PS3 is going to replace the home PC?

And to reiterate scooby's point, the idea of an extender/server is to have a cheap STB like device that can display the pictures, movies, music at different locations.

 

[cthellis42]

Interesting thought. Basically what you're describing is a Media Center Extender for the Mac. I would think they still have an issue with content, since other than downloading movies for iPod Video they don't really have a distribution mechanism similar to iPod music. And playing iPod videos on a bigger TV is probably not going to cut it.

But your reasoning that they will do what the more simple implementation is very compelling.

.Sis

The don't have it YET, but the "media center" entry doesn't need video download distribution immediately (cable/satellite tie-ins, yes. High quality downloads...? Not yet. The media providers are still tip-toeing around how much to support.), but that could easily get rolled in when it shows (like new features have continued to get rolled into iTunes.)

That's one arena I'd have to give a leg-up to Apple over the others, though... At this point they're well-known at being able to deliver compelling software that "just works" with easy customer adoption and appreciation, which is really what you want in that sector instead of trying to pile 10 lbs. of features into a 5 lb. bag. The features may eventually get there, but Apple usually focuses on the right ones first, and getting it to the consumer best.

The other route I could see for Apple offhand would be to acquire TiVo and work their software and networking plans in from there, as TiVo already has essentially the image Apple does, and a pre-installed userbase. Not to mention being "the descriptive word" people use for that market; everyone "TiVo's" something whether they have that brand of DVR's or not.

 

[one]

What happens when they fill up their memory card and want to copy to a HD, burn them to a cd or email them to a friend/family member? (Or remove red-eye! )Are you making the argument that the PS3 is going to replace the home PC?

Linux. USB. External drives.

 

[expletive]

Linux. USB. External drives.

Linux , now theres a consumer friendly product.

Why bother with all that when theyve already got a PC?

 

[Phil]

If you think the PC is going to be eliminated from this chain you are absolutely dreaming. It will not happen.

It already has been for many. As I said, it's all about convinience. At the moment, people using digital cameras have to copy their content from the camera to the PC / laptop on far too complicated ways. Once it's on the PC / Laptop, it's not very convinient having to show your friends / family / guests your digitallized photo-album of your latest holiday-trip in a small study on a small screen where most people have their computers stacked away.

In fact, I can still count many people that are still drawn to traditional cameras because it lets them sit down in the living-room and take out the albums with the photos sticked-in to pass it around. Since the TV has been in the center of the livingroom for years now, it makes sense to push a piece of equipment that is centered around that idiology already. A PS3 fits that picture and so does any other equivilant piece of hardware. Now you tell me, how does the PC fit into this chain we're talking about?

Windows Vista's Media center <-> Xbox360 -> TV?

Don't see it, sorry. As others have expressed also in this thread already, the easiest way to get your photos from a digital camera into your livingroom is physically moving the data-medium from the camera into the "livingroom-hub" - that being either a PS3 that's physically connected to the TV or the TV itself.

In fact, this is how people have been doing it since the first handycams came out: Connect the camera to the TV with the appropriate cables that come with the camera or depending on the medium, use the recorder that you bought (i.e. Video8 cameras). Since TVs don't come with SD / CF / MS slots, a product with interfaces like the PS3 would be extremely convinient: Insert the medium into the PS3 (or equivilant hw) and control it via the likely supplied remote. Why would the average joe even run back to the study while the guests are waiting in the living-room having a good time if it could be done so much easier in a fraction of the time required?

I agree, Windows Media Center functionality is nice if you are a nerd, work with computers and happen to have a file-server of some sort where you store and archive entire libraries of music / photos and what not (I'm actually one of those). These people make up of a fraction of the market though.

I'm not even sure if a PC of some sort acting as a file-server is going to be a solution for a very long time (may it be videos from your handycam or pictures from your digitalcamera). At the moment, I can picture people either 1.) leaving their videos on their Digital Video tapes or 2.) burning them to DVD or Blu-Ray player. I can see the same happening with photos as well. Harddrives aren't a viable option for the public (yet) - expensive and limited in the lifespan compared to a medium such as CD / DVD or Blu-Ray (20+ years). What will you tell your customer when he has just lost all his entire picture archive of the last 5-10 years thanks to a Harddrive crash? What, he should have backed-up his data? With what? RAID? What? Yep, let me introduce you to the average joe outthere.

That solution you're proposing is compeltely crippled, it works if you want to view your pics on the TV, but that's about it. And if you think Sony is going to write their own software to do all of the things a current PC can do, well you can have fun with that buggy mess of code, I wouldn't touch it with a 10foot pole.

What's with the attitude? Last I checked, this wasn't a thread proposing on which is the best way to bring the PC to the livingroom. Sony clearly isn't aiming at that - what they're aiming at (as well as all the other companies that want to be in the center of the livingroom) is offering synergie of products at the click of a button. Convinience.

For most people though, they already have a windows PC, so the cheapest way, with the least amount of effort is simply to extend that PC to your TV with a cheap extender. there's no reason to buy an expensive piece of hardware that simply emulated functions you can already do with your PC using a much more efficient M/KB interface, with less reliability and less features.

We're not arguing what the cheapest way is: it's all about what is the most convinient to consumers. Ipod's success can be attributed to similar factors: It's not the cheapest, not the best quality mp3 player out there: it however combines the style and convinience that made it popular. The PC today isn't in the livingroom for the very most people. Wonder why? The sheer evidence of Microsoft betting on Vista's Media-Center interface with an Xbox or similar planned setop-boxes is showing that they are finding other ways into the livingroom because it's obvious that having the PC there isn't a viable nor a convinient option for most people.

It also saves you the hassle of transferring everything over to multiple extenders. Imagine if I had 4 TV's throughout my house. In your plan I would manually have to copy media to each of the 4 extenders, wasting my time, and HD space, and for what? Less functionality and more money? Or are we know going to trust in Sony to develop a master/server relationship with their PS3?

What exactly is my plan? It's quite obvious to me that you're going off ranting on about something no one is really arguing nor suggesting.

 

[Carl B]

Guys guys, let's step back from *too* much focus just on Microsoft vs Sony on this one, console forum though it might be.

For my part I think yes Sony software has traditionally been very poor, but to make good software nowadays all you need is a vision, some direction, and some outsourced programmers. So it's not as if improving the software side of things isn't easier than improving the hardware side of things when we're talking about such basic included functionality, especially if you're not supporting legacy.

That said, I don't expect the PS3 to compete with Viiv/Vista/MCE on level of features, so it'll all come down to what the consumer wants and needs vs what these companies *think* they want and need. Like Cthellis said, maybe Apple will be the pathfinder on that one. Or, maybe not. We find out soon!

@Megadrive: I did in fact read that article back in the day, and it's a pretty good one. It forms a part of the quilt of information that eventually reached a critical mass that had me form this thread.

Also here's some more information to toss on the fire. I'm a little surprised by it truthfully, but I guess you have to sacrifice some for first-mover and mindshare nowadays.

...First batch of VIIV PCs not to support DMA

Shawn Chen, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DigiTimes.com [Monday 2 January 2006]

Intel is scheduled to launch its “Viiv” consumer PC platform at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas in the US on January 9, with 1-2 models based on the platform available from Acer, AOpen, Gigabyte Technology, Micro-Star International (MSI) and Shuttle. The first batch of Viiv PCs, however, will not feature built-in digital media adaptor (DMA) capability, according to sources at the PC makers.

As Intel’s upcoming Viiv 1.0 disables DMA functionality, the first batch of Viiv PCs are recognized to be more like high-end entertainment PCs, the sources commented. By June, when the chip giant introduces the DMA-supporting 1.5 version, PC makers are looking to roll out a more complete digital home product line, the sources said.

The average price for Viiv PCs will be US$1,500-1,800, according to the sources...

http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20060102A6031.html

 

[one]

Linux , now theres a consumer friendly product.

Why bother with all that when theyve already got a PC?

Does that PC have an SD card reader?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

For my part I think yes Sony software has traditionally been very poor, but to make good software nowadays all you need is a vision, some direction, and some outsourced programmers. So it's not as if improving the software side of things isn't easier than improving the hardware side of things when we're talking about such basic included functionality, especially if you're not supporting legacy.

Sony 1st party games (bought in talent) can be very good. But their PSP video software stinks by all accounts. They're very hit and miss at the best of times.

For Linux to be user friendly, you'd only really need write a more rigid and user friendly interface. If you're not having to support random hardware, the complexities of Linux should be concealable. Provide a non-user-definable interface, robust installer and setup, and force a level of software structure for programs wanting to be added (could restrict programs to Sony certified to assure compliance and no software conflicts) and it should be workable.

 

[wco81]

$1500-1800?

Why would anyone spend that much for some AV functionality?

That's the price range of some nicer AV receivers.

What functionality do the ViiV PCs provide? DVR? You can get that for a lot less than $1500-1800.

Patches and security updates in your living room?

 

[Carl B]

Sony 1st party games (bought in talent) can be very good. But their PSP video software stinks by all accounts. They're very hit and miss at the best of times.

Oh I wasn't refering to their game studios. No, SCE's studios rock.

I was talking about crap like 'Sony Connect' and their other proprietary PC-space stuff. But like I said I don't think if Sony really put the effort in it would be too hard to improve vastly in those areas.

 

[wco81]

Sony 1st party games (bought in talent) can be very good. But their PSP video software stinks by all accounts. They're very hit and miss at the best of times.

For Linux to be user friendly, you'd only really need write a more rigid and user friendly interface. If you're not having to support random hardware, the complexities of Linux should be concealable. Provide a non-user-definable interface, robust installer and setup, and force a level of software structure for programs wanting to be added (could restrict programs to Sony certified to assure compliance and no software conflicts) and it should be workable.

The key for Sony would be to develop a remote-based interface. I have no problems with Sony remotes.

As for Linux, Tivo runs on Linux and they have as many adherents as anyone else in this space.

 

[Sis]

It's not just a case of having your Media OS on everyone's PC, but having people use that PC in the living room for content. My PC sits upstairs, and MS will need to convince me to buy another PC to sit downstairs and drive equipment in competition against the offerings from Sony, Intel, Apple, Google, and whoever else.

No, this is where the Media Center Extender functionality of the Xbox 360 comes in. I happen to have an HTPC in my living room, primarily for gaming reasons, but others who have HTPC say they use extenders.

This is why the Xbox 360 is a significant piece of Microsoft's plan. How many people will now buy an HTPC in order to hook it up to their Xbox 360? I know that's what prompted me to buy mine.

.Sis

 

[scooby_dooby]

It already has been for many. As I said, it's all about convinience. At the moment, people using digital cameras have to copy their content from the camera to the PC / laptop on far too complicated ways. Once it's on the PC / Laptop, it's not very convinient having to show your friends / family / guests your digitallized photo-album of your latest holiday-trip in a small study on a small screen where most people have their computers stacked away.

In fact, I can still count many people that are still drawn to traditional cameras because it lets them sit down in the living-room and take out the albums with the photos sticked-in to pass it around. Since the TV has been in the center of the livingroom for years now, it makes sense to push a piece of equipment that is centered around that idiology already. A PS3 fits that picture and so does any other equivilant piece of hardware. Now you tell me, how does the PC fit into this chain we're talking about?

when you want to back up your memory card. when you want to share to multiple tv's. when you want to email your photos. when you want to burn a cd of your photos. when you want to print your photos. when you want to crop your photos. when you want to reduce red-eye.

like i said, what's the point of paying extra to duplicate what you can already do ona PC? there is no added convenience in having a living room box do the same thing, except in some specific scenarios(i.e. user who only displays photos on one tv and doesn't want do anything else), especially when the software and interface will be clumsy and buggy compared to PC. For the vast majority of people it's much more convenient to use what they are already using, including their email program, their photo editing software, and their printers.

Don't see it, sorry. As others have expressed also in this thread already, the easiest way to get your photos from a digital camera into your livingroom is physically moving the data-medium from the camera into the "livingroom-hub" - that being either a PS3 that's physically connected to the TV or the TV itself.

Like I said, that applies only to one type of user, the person who has no needs outside of displaying pics on their TV. My feeling is this type of user is a TINY minority. You also ignore the fact that any capable extender will allow this type of plug and play viewing of photos, just like the 360 does. Most everyone who has a digital camera, has a PC, it's the most logical and convenient way to backup and share your photos.

In fact, this is how people have been doing it since the first handycams came out: Connect the camera to the TV with the appropriate cables that come with the camera or depending on the medium, use the recorder that you bought (i.e. Video8 cameras). Since TVs don't come with SD / CF / MS slots, a product with interfaces like the PS3 would be extremely convinient: Insert the medium into the PS3 (or equivilant hw) and control it via the likely supplied remote. Why would the average joe even run back to the study while the guests are waiting in the living-room having a good time if it could be done so much easier in a fraction of the time required?

Any media extender could allow plug and play video functionality, it's not a valid argument for backing up the video on the extender itself. You keep trying to make the argument that they should backup their media on the extender device, by imagining these plug and play scenarios(i.e. why should he have to walk all the way to the study?).

it's real simple, when backing up video he will go to the study, use the superior tools on the PC, the superior interface of the mouse. Why doing plug-and-play realtime playback of their media, this can be accomplished on any media extenders and do not require that he backs up his video to the living room box.

I agree, Windows Media Center functionality is nice if you are a nerd, work with computers and happen to have a file-server of some sort where you store and archive entire libraries of music / photos and what not (I'm actually one of those). These people make up of a fraction of the market though.

Actually its useful for any user that does anything beyond simple video/image playback. (i listed about 10 exampels in the first paragraph) Not only is it handy to have all media pn one centralized server, and not only are the vast majproty of users already doing this, but the software and interface on the PC will always be superior.

I'm not even sure if a PC of some sort acting as a file-server is going to be a solution for a very long time (may it be videos from your handycam or pictures from your digitalcamera). At the moment, I can picture people either 1.) leaving their videos on their Digital Video tapes or 2.) burning them to DVD or Blu-Ray player.

the easiest most convenient way to burn you BR discs would be on the PC, superior interface, superior tools, centralized sharing location

We're not arguing what the cheapest way is: it's all about what is the most convinient to consumers. Ipod's success can be attributed to similar factors: It's not the cheapest, not the best quality mp3 player out there: it however combines the style and convinience that made it popular. The PC today isn't in the livingroom for the very most people. Wonder why? The sheer evidence of Microsoft betting on Vista's Media-Center interface with an Xbox or similar planned setop-boxes is showing that they are finding other ways into the livingroom because it's obvious that having the PC there isn't a viable nor a convinient option for most people.

You're arguing that the PC is not required in the multimedia chain. I'm saying that's a totally unrealistic outlook, considering people are already using PC's it is NOT more convenient to copy everything over to some foreign device, and use software with limited functionality and a cumbersome interface.

What exactly is my plan? It's quite obvious to me that you're going off ranting on about something no one is really arguing nor suggesting.

Um...PS3(or other extremely basic media centre w. HDD)> TV, rather than PC > PS3 > TV

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Oh I wasn't refering to their game studios. No, SCE's studios rock.

No, but the principle's the same that you were mentioning. 'Sony' per se may be rubbish at producing software, but buying in talent to write software can produce the goods still makes it Sony software and it can be good.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

No, this is where the Media Center Extender functionality of the Xbox 360 comes in. I happen to have an HTPC in my living room, primarily for gaming reasons, but others who have HTPC say they use extenders.

This is why the Xbox 360 is a significant piece of Microsoft's plan. How many people will now buy an HTPC in order to hook it up to their Xbox 360? I know that's what prompted me to buy mine.

.Sis

I didn't think of MCE Extenders, but that's still a piece of hardware contending with the PS3 or Apple or Google box. I either buy a $500 PC and a $300 MCE Extender, or keep the PC I've got that's underpowered for a Media PC but does everything I want fine and buy a $100-300 alternative to a MCE Extender.

 

[Carl B]

No, but the principle's the same that you were mentioning. 'Sony' per se may be rubbish at producing software, but buying in talent to write software can produce the goods still makes it Sony software and it can be good.

Ok I see what you're saying now. Yeah, agreed.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I didn't think of MCE Extenders, but that's still a piece of hardware contending with the PS3 or Apple or Google box. I either buy a $500 PC and a $300 MCE Extender, or keep the PC I've got that's underpowered for a Media PC but does everything I want fine and buy a $100-300 alternative to a MCE Extender.

what about in 2008 with your $100 dual-core athlon, 500gb hdd, and fresh install of windows vista? What then?

 

[wco81]

My XBR has a memory slot. You can navigate the contents of the Memory Stick via the remote, even zoom in on pics and play a slide show to nice piano music.

There are a lot of devices for getting pics onto your TV, even HDTV. None of these have really taken off. I think if people want to see pics and share, they print them off or send people links to their Shutterfly account.

Kodak has just intro'd a camera with Wifi which directly uploads pics to Shutterfly or Ofoto or whatever the name of their service.

Digital photography is really popular but I don't think viewing pics on the TV is a killer app. yet. Certainly not reason enough to buy another PC for Media Center functions.

 

[wco81]

what about in 2008 with your $100 dual-core athlon, 500gb hdd, and fresh install of windows vista? What then?

You'll never see any Windows boxes get that low in price. MS wants $150 alone for Vista. That alone makes it too pricey for the CE space.

Why buy a $700 MCE to use as PVR when the PVR from the satellite or cable company will have very little upfront cash required?

And if the $1500-1800 prices rumored for ViiV PCs are true, those aren't going anywhere either.

Sure they're PCs too, so you can compress video and game. My question is, when you play a CPU-intensive game on an MCE PC, can you also have it record a TV program at the same time? Especially if they're using a codec like VC-1?