2006: Battle for the Living Room

[Shifty Geezer]

Right, there's always the chance, given Sony's install base the console world. But this hardly puts them in the best position--otherwise, they should have been able to capitalize on the PS1 or PS2.

.Sis

The reason I place Sony at the strongest position isn't because of past behaviour, but the range of products and services the umbrella corporation controls. Basically they can undercut the opposition on every level and could offer a cheaper product will making more profits. On an Intel box, all the content will need Intel to pass some cut to the content providers. In Sony's case they can release their own content (which is substantial) at a lower price whilst still taking a profit. What they could have done was offer Sony music over CONNECT at a lwoer price than their rivals, encouraging consumers to buy ATRAC players instead of mp3 players, ensuring ALL content goes through their portal and encouraging adoption of their format. Likewise with BluRay, by taking a cut in their own film's and TV series' prices they could encourage adoption of the format. By producing content as well as hardware, they can leverage the entire chain. PS3 can be sure to get a huge range of films and music and games without Sony having to look elsewhere and broker deals. The moment you need to buy in content, you have to cover an extra company's profits.

No other company in this race deals in content alongside hardware, and as the only established living-room name of these four including the best-selling brand of single-box entertainment platforms, Sony definitely has a head start.

 

[patsu]

No other company in this race deals in content alongside hardware, and as the only established living-room name of these four including the best-selling brand of single-box entertainment platforms, Sony definitely has a head start.

Yes, I also believe Sony will be successful in the living room claim, but I feel they won't be the #1 guy (That's just me).

Their recent products have been rather fragmented and ill-supported. We'll have to see how compelling PS3 is *and* how big living room casual gaming is.

 

[flf]

The possibilities of Google becoming the end-to-end content delivery network of choice are pointed out in these three articles:

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20051117.html

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20051124.html

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20051201.html

I won't bother to try to analyze the implications if some of the suppositions are true... but if they are, well, the battle for the living room might be a lot different than most might think. You might want to go through the other archives and find Cringley's posts about what Apple is up to as well, as it probably has a bearing on the discussion.

 

[aaronspink]

Oh I agree with that all the way, I'm just saying that similar to how other content providers have/had to take into account the guaranteed support blu-ray will/would have due to Sony's own studio and hardware support, Sony could leverage a similar calculus when it comes to digital distribution since they are both prominent in the hardware and the content. Not saying that they will, or other companies would be as comfortable with a Sony controlled distribution method as they would with a Sony guided optical format, but hey it's at least got to be an overall advantage before it's a disadvantage should they choose to actively pursue it. Which they should.

The problem with something like Sony being a major content distributor online is that...

The other content companies really don't want to promote Sony and their brands...

And if they become successful and/or have different internal vs external licensing terms, there is a good argument to be made for unfair market power and/or a major legal push for more compulsary licensing. Sony and the other content providers have to be carefull, because if the consumers start demanding more open distrobution systems, the governments will have to start doing something about it. An example of this was consumer discontent with the way the cable companies where leasing to infinity the cable boxes, which begat the law requiring support for cable card.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[aaronspink]

Then a few years back, the Sony head guy (Idei) said he thought the center of the AV future would be the TV, as it has always been the case (long before Sony talked about putting Cell in TVs), contesting Gates talking about the PC taking a greater role in the converged future.

The TV is just a display and has been for quite some time. And the PC HAS been taking a greater role in the converged future. Pretty much all the new high tech AV gizmos are starting out nowadays on PC platforms (ex Tivo, etc).

Nor do I see HTPCs becoming anything but a niche. Who wants a big, noisy box in the living room? (this is where the X360 is hurting too and the PS3 will also, because nobody wants to keep these things on when they're not playing games because they suck too much power and are too noisy).

You are assuming that they are or will continue to be "big, noisy box in the living room". This isn't correct today at the higher end and certainly won't be correct in the future. Its not hard to imagine an HTPC in the thermal envelope of a laptop with multi-tuners and a cable card interface, capable of working as a higher end DVR, media server, and computer. The one major change that is happening is that the resolution of the "TV" displays is moving into the same range as most computers, which is quickly eliminating a lot of the nastiness of rendering to it.

Also don't see video downloads becoming a big deal, at least in the US, any time soon. If they ever become popular and thus a threat to the cable or telcos (which are getting into offering video services of their own), they will just restrict the pipes.

Currently, they can't. Its against the law. Some providers are pushing to a change in the law to enable them to restrict the pipes, but there is a lot of pressure against it. In addition, there is the possibility that if they did, they'd lose common carrier status which would open them up to a LOT of legal issues. Video downloads are really just an issue of bandwidth at this point, though the main change will likely be in the coming market for personal video servers, but like personal music servers have now become a fixture.

Also question whether portable video will ever be a big deal. Just don't see the usability of video on the go except to the small segment of the population which have long commute train rides. Yet there is a lot of money being invested, such as dedicated networks for mobile video services being built and even plans to market satellite TV receivers for cars.

You go where the money is. Things like MobiTV are pretty interesting. And, they already have satellite TV receivers for cars. Just like they have standard DVD players in a lot of cars now.

The one advantage I see is if they could just integrate some of these richer features/apps. into CE devices without big, hot, noisy processors. There will be some useful features coming along, like DLNA, 802.11n/UWB/wireless USB or Firewire. It would be good to aggregate all these things in one box but if that box needs a big, hot processor to run it, then forget it. None of these features are killer apps.

There are usable PC processors that are in the same thermal envolopes as a lot of the processors running things like set top boxes.

It would be better to integrate some of these things into the display. But consumers aren't expecting that. They might go for a Blu-Ray/DVR/receiver combo (again, it can't be noisy). Of course, this kind of box has to be under $300.

Actually, the current and recent trends have been moving functionality OUT of the display. The display is something that you keep around a long time, you want the money invested in the display, not built in gadgets that will become obsolete well before the display. The overwelming trend is for effectively TV monitors with an inteligent video processor connected externally, a la Digital STB.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[Sis]

No other company in this race deals in content alongside hardware, and as the only established living-room name of these four including the best-selling brand of single-box entertainment platforms, Sony definitely has a head start.

I understand your point, so hopefully you don't think I'm being argumentative, buuut :smile: --

This has been true of Sony now for a long time and I've seen nothing that changes this. They may have all the right pieces, but they've always had the right pieces. I don't see this changing.

Granted, any company with enough money, product, IP, and given multiple attempts, eventually they're bound to get it right.

.Sis

 

[Carl B]

The problem with something like Sony being a major content distributor online is that...

The other content companies really don't want to promote Sony and their brands...

And if they become successful and/or have different internal vs external licensing terms, there is a good argument to be made for unfair market power and/or a major legal push for more compulsary licensing. Sony and the other content providers have to be carefull, because if the consumers start demanding more open distrobution systems, the governments will have to start doing something about it. An example of this was consumer discontent with the way the cable companies where leasing to infinity the cable boxes, which begat the law requiring support for cable card.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

Understood. I was trying in that paragraph you quoted, perhaps not well enough, to convey that other content providers might not be too keen on giving Sony that much power over the system when, afterall, they are competitors with Sony on one level or another. In that sense a company like Apple can be seen as more of a fair broker with their iTunes service. Still though, it *is* an advantage Sony has that others don't, and IMO they might as well put it to use and see what the level of push-back is down the line rather than squander the opportunity to get themselves and their service out there. Digital distribution is a different animal, but the strategy has payed dividends for Sony at least as far as Blu-ray has gone.

I'll say though that if it ever did get to the point where Sony was brought up on anti-competetive practices, that would probably indicate to me that things went better for them than they otherwise might have in this whole distribution game (bad guy though they would be at that point). Better to be the king being cut down than the loser wondering what you might have done better afterall.

In the end as long as they have some oversight over the technical implementations of the system, I don't think they'd be opposed to setting up or being a part of an industry forum of content providers, a la DVD Forum etc.., to set overarching goals, policies, and fees. Their interests should be similar enough to the other content providers afterall, provided the hardware side of things are left in Sony's favor.

Completely on the side and going back to Intel and Viiv, assuming those content agreements the Yahoo article says Intel has set up are real and substantial, I wonder if any Sony properties will be licensing their content to Intel for distribution?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This has been true of Sony now for a long time and I've seen nothing that changes this. They may have all the right pieces, but they've always had the right pieces. I don't see this changing.

Yes, which is why in my first post I said...

But historically they've never been smart enough to bring it all together, so may fumble instead.

Sony have all the components, but a fragmented company riddled with interoperation competition. The only difference now is Stringer talking about getting rid of all that. He hasn't been at the job long enough to see if it's more than just words.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I think MS is in the strongest position, just because of windows Vista. If you look down the road 4 or 5 years, everyone will have a Vista PC, just because it was time to upgrade their PC.

So they'll have a naturally huge installed base, just due to the fact the next iteration of windows happens to support the HTPC funcionality. Looking into that 4 or 5 year timeframe, there's a $99 x360 which acts as an extender throughout the home, so it's very cost effective. On the other hand, competitors will also be able to capatilize on the Vista funcionality, so we will probably see a huge # of vista-extenders.

They're in a great position as far as getting their systems into homes, however they will really need to improve and beef-up the media-centre functionality of the x360 is they are goingt o compete with the poducts available in 4 or 5 years, competition will be steep, and the current x360 interface will certainly not stand up to teh competition.

 

[mckmas8808]

I think MS is in the strongest position, just because of windows Vista. If you look down the road 4 or 5 years, everyone will have a Vista PC, just because it was time to upgrade their PC.

So they'll have a naturally huge installed base, just due to the fact the next iteration of windows happens to support the HTPC funcionality. Looking into that 4 or 5 year timeframe, there's a $99 x360 which acts as an extender throughout the home, so it's very cost effective. On the other hand, competitors will also be able to capatilize on the Vista funcionality, so we will probably see a huge # of vista-extenders.

They're in a great position as far as getting their systems into homes, however they will really need to improve and beef-up the media-centre functionality of the x360 is they are goingt o compete with the poducts available in 4 or 5 years, competition will be steep, and the current x360 interface will certainly not stand up to teh competition.

To me it will be between MS's Vista -> Xbox 360 connectivity to Sony's Blu-ray player and PS3 -> PSP connectivity.

MS is a shoe in with being able to get millions of Vista enabled machines into the homes of millions. But with the connectivity that it will have with the 360 will that over come what Sony can possibly do? Sony being able to get millions of Blu-ray players into people's homes in a shoe in (i.e. PS3s).

But will standalone Blu-ray players help win over the battle ahead with HD-DVD? Will the PS3 -> PSP connectivity work like Sony wants? Will I be able to stream a movie, music, or photos off of my PS3's HDD to my PSP anywhere in the world over a Wi-Fi connection like Sony's been talking about?

These are serious non-bias questions that will be answered by the end of 2007. To me it's like a Playoff in a sports league. You have MS vs. Sony and then you will have Apple vs. Intel/or whom ever is better than Intel in the home at the moment. I think Apple will beat Intel or that other competitor just through it's great distribution channel.

And I think whom ever wins the battle between the questions above with regards to MS and Sony will be facing what Apple has in the future. Who will win? Nobody knows. But it's looking like this to me...

Apple vs. Sony/MS

or

Ipod/Ianythingyoucanthinkof

vs.

BD/PS3/PSP vs. Vista/360


I hope that wasn't to hard to understand.

 

[expletive]

To me it will be between MS's Vista -> Xbox 360 connectivity to Sony's Blu-ray player and PS3 -> PSP connectivity.

MS is a shoe in with being able to get millions of Vista enabled machines into the homes of millions. But with the connectivity that it will have with the 360 will that over come what Sony can possibly do? Sony being able to get millions of Blu-ray players into people's homes in a shoe in (i.e. PS3s).

But will standalone Blu-ray players help win over the battle ahead with HD-DVD? Will the PS3 -> PSP connectivity work like Sony wants? Will I be able to stream a movie, music, or photos off of my PS3's HDD to my PSP anywhere in the world over a Wi-Fi connection like Sony's been talking about?

These are serious non-bias questions that will be answered by the end of 2007. To me it's like a Playoff in a sports league. You have MS vs. Sony and then you will have Apple vs. Intel/or whom ever is better than Intel in the home at the moment. I think Apple will beat Intel or that other competitor just through it's great distribution channel.

And I think whom ever wins the battle between the questions above with regards to MS and Sony will be facing what Apple has in the future. Who will win? Nobody knows. But it's looking like this to me...

Apple vs. Sony/MS

or

Ipod/Ianythingyoucanthinkof

vs.

BD/PS3/PSP vs. Vista/360


I hope that wasn't to hard to understand.

I'm not sure i agree with the PSP (or its functionality) being that big a 'chip' in the context of what we're discussing here.

However, if it really is that big a deal dont you think that MS would expand its "plays for sure" logo certification on portable video players to do the same thing with Vista? Apple has already started the portable video revolution how long beofre MS capitalizes on that as well?

I do think it is an interesting idea but actually becomes much more compelling for me when youre streaming video/photos/music from a home media server (Vista PC) than a PS3. Now youre got all your "tivo" programs, your music, your photos right at your fingertips. Plus youre streaming it to a device where the consumer has a wider variety of choices instead of HAVING to buy a PSP (i.e. creative, iriver, samsung, etc.).

 

[seismologist]

it seems to make sense that a Tivo-like box would be the vehicle for streaming media to portable players.
I guess I just dont like the idea of having a Media Center PC in the loop for anything other than archiving (maybe because I'm not even running Windows).

I think these STB hardware still need a killer Ap before any of them become mainstream. Until then I only see two boxes under most people's TV's. Videogame console/DVD player and the box that you get for free from your cable company.

 

[expletive]

I think these STB hardware still need a killer Ap before any of them become mainstream. Until then I only see two boxes under most people's TV's. Videogame console/DVD player and the box that you get for free from your cable company.

I think MS agrees which is why the 360 is a video game/DVD player and media extender.

 

[Phil]

I do think it is an interesting idea but actually becomes much more compelling for me when youre streaming video/photos/music from a home media server (Vista PC) than a PS3. Now youre got all your "tivo" programs, your music, your photos right at your fingertips. Plus youre streaming it to a device where the consumer has a wider variety of choices instead of HAVING to buy a PSP (i.e. creative, iriver, samsung, etc.).

I don't see why Sony couldn't offer the software themselves to make consumers Windows X OS less compatible with PS3 than Vista => Xbox360. It's a mear software solution.

I think MS is in the strongest position, just because of windows Vista. If you look down the road 4 or 5 years, everyone will have a Vista PC, just because it was time to upgrade their PC.

I'm not too sure if those Vista PCs are in the right place though (*hint* not the livingroom), the Blu-Ray and other Sony products will though, as they have been the last few years. What I find more interesting is that Sony is targeting a device that's going to be in the livingroom (the PS3) and have people take their SD, CF, MS cards right to boot from their digital recording device and have it displayed without any installing or a big computer running in the office-bedroom on the other side of the house. Not only that, but with a cheap CELL, what about the potential of offering unique features with a CELL powered Sony LCD <=> PS3 <=> Sony Blu-Ray player <=> Sony Hifi? And the best thing? All those products are already in the livingroom, now and today [without CELL].

 

[aaronspink]

I don't see why Sony couldn't offer the software themselves to make consumers Windows X OS less compatible with PS3 than Vista => Xbox360. It's a mear software solution.

A Mere software solution? As much as I have my misgivings about Microsoft, they do a better job on software than most. Sony isn't exactly known for the software either.

I'm not too sure if those Vista PCs are in the right place though (*hint* not the livingroom), the Blu-Ray and other Sony products will though, as they have been the last few years.

Why would it need to be in the living room. All you need in the living room is a remote control interface and a media-to-tv interface.

What I find more interesting is that Sony is targeting a device that's going to be in the livingroom (the PS3) and have people take their SD, CF, MS cards right to boot from their digital recording device and have it displayed without any installing or a big computer running in the office-bedroom on the other side of the house. Not only that, but with a cheap CELL, what about the potential of offering unique features with a CELL powered Sony LCD <=> PS3 <=> Sony Blu-Ray player <=> Sony Hifi? And the best thing? All those products are already in the livingroom, now and today [without CELL].

Maybe because the current chain is Camera->media->computer or Camera->media->printer. You need data storage, you need image management, you need to be able to email it to your friends.

Cell powered LCD/Hifi is a pipedream and don't buy into the Cell PR of some media fusion between cells running in various devices. Either the PS3 can do it on its own, or it isn't going to be done as far as features.

And who really buys Sony nowadays for home theatre? They're quality is a poor shadow of its former self, they are generally more expensive, etc.

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[Phil]

A Mere software solution? As much as I have my misgivings about Microsoft, they do a better job on software than most. Sony isn't exactly known for the software either.

Of course it is. Programming a simple piece of software that acts as an interface between a PS3 and a OS is nothing extraordinary. I'm not sure what you're suggesting here. We've already got cheap products that do exactly that.

Why would it need to be in the living room. All you need in the living room is a remote control interface and a media-to-tv interface.

Tell that to the average joe out there that has absolutely no idea on how to set up a small network at home.

Maybe because the current chain is Camera->media->computer or Camera->media->printer. You need data storage, you need image management, you need to be able to email it to your friends.

And it's an inconvinience to most people that don't work with computers for a living or don't use computers at all. Most average people that buy digital cameras don't even know how to resize or trim a picture on the computer - all they care is having it on their tv as quick as possible so they can show it to family / visitors on the big screen when they come over.

The quickest and most convinient way is:

1.) take picture(s) with Digital-Camera
2.) remove SD / CF / MS card
3.) insert into device that's physically already connected to the TV (PS3 etc)

Cell power LCD/Hifi is a pipedream and don't buy into the Cell PR of some media fusion between cells running in various devices. Either the PS3 can do it on its own, or it isn't going to be done as far as features.

I'm not buying any more into things than you are arguing based on your own belief and own [humble] assumptions. We'll see in a few years how much of that potential goes into products.

And who really buys Sony nowadays for home theatre? They're quality is a poor shadow of its former self, they are generally more expensive, etc.

How about the general public? High-end products cater to audiophiles / quality concious consumers... a minority btw.

 

[seismologist]

A Mere software solution? As much as I have my misgivings about Microsoft, they do a better job on software than most. Sony isn't exactly known for the software either.

Why would it need to be in the living room. All you need in the living room is a remote control interface and a media-to-tv interface.

EDIT:
ahh I just realized media extender would be good for viewing digital photos and home video. i guess that sort of makes sense but not what I had in mind when I think of a digital STB.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think MS is in the strongest position, just because of windows Vista. If you look down the road 4 or 5 years, everyone will have a Vista PC, just because it was time to upgrade their PC.

It's not just a case of having your Media OS on everyone's PC, but having people use that PC in the living room for content. My PC sits upstairs, and MS will need to convince me to buy another PC to sit downstairs and drive equipment in competition against the offerings from Sony, Intel, Apple, Google, and whoever else.

I'll also add that, personally, I've seen the MS Dream Home of the Future and it disgusts me. The idea of having electrics driving everything to create a 'perfect' environment is ridiculous. What kind of sissy wants that much mollycoddling? Automatic light-level controls and temparature controls and playing music when you walk in and stuff I can do now by walking a few feet and turing a few dials. We're supposed to be being more conscientious about the amount of power we consume, and these electronic chumps are just trying ot invent power-guzzling products to sell regardless of how much they are actually needed or beneficial. I guess the future is everyone slobs around at home not moving a muscle as the computers take care of everything, and then popping down the gym to work hard to counteract the slobbyniess. Me, I'll be content to actually move a bit and close the curtains if there's too much light. A box for TV, films and music, and a display and speakers, is all I care for. People advertising more than that will be discouraging me from their solution.

 

[seismologist]

And it's an inconvinience to most people that don't work with computers for a living or don't use computers at all. Most average people that buy digital cameras don't even know how to resize or trim a picture on the computer - all they care is having it on their tv as quick as possible so they can show it to family / visitors on the big screen when they come over.

The quickest and most convinient way is:

1.) take picture(s) with Digital-Camera
2.) remove SD / CF / MS card
3.) insert into device that's physically already connected to the TV (PS3 etc)

yes I believe this to be true. Stick a card reader on your HDVR and you're looking at the media center killer.
Media center seems useful for people who happen to have all the pieces to the puzzle. But the number of general users who have a wireless router and LAN set up in their home would be very few. I'm afraid that Media center will end up another pipe dream just like the MS Dream home of the future :lol

 

[scooby_dooby]

The quickest and most convinient way is:

1.) take picture(s) with Digital-Camera
2.) remove SD / CF / MS card
3.) insert into device that's physically already connected to the TV (PS3 etc).

If you think the PC is going to be eliminated from this chain you are absolutely dreaming. It will not happen.

That solution you're proposing is compeltely crippled, it works if you want to view your pics on the TV, but that's about it. And if you think Sony is going to write their own software to do all of the things a current PC can do, well you can have fun with that buggy mess of code, I wouldn't touch it with a 10foot pole.

Maybe if apple decided to make a box, that included all the PC media functionality inside it, then it might have a chance to remove the PC from the chain, but not Sony. Sony's software is terrible, it always has been. This still doesn't change the fact that a remote, or controller cannot hold a candle to keyboard/mouse as far as usability goes.

For most people though, they already have a windows PC, so the cheapest way, with the least amount of effort is simply to extend that PC to your TV with a cheap extender. there's no reason to buy an expensive piece of hardware that simply emulated functions you can already do with your PC using a much more efficient M/KB interface, with less reliability and less features.

It also saves you the hassle of transferring everything over to multiple extenders. Imagine if I had 4 TV's throughout my house. In your plan I would manually have to copy media to each of the 4 extenders, wasting my time, and HD space, and for what? Less functionality and more money? Or are we know going to trust in Sony to develop a master/server relationship with their PS3?

If this is what you are expecting form PS3 you're going to be very dissapointed, I predict a bare bones software package, that MAYBE shares multimedia from windows and that's about it.