1 Million Xbox 360s to be Banned

[ShadowRunner]

Im suprised with the 1 million figure, its huge. Plus i doubt they have caught everyone, probably just those that tried to play the latest WAVE4 type games, which started around the release of tekken6, without waiting for the latest firmware release.
Wasnt it half of the userbase doesnt even connect to live? thats possibly 2mil right there, not including all those who have been banned already in the past which im sure is a significant number.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

So % Console Piracy is a lower percentage than the PC market for similar games, the total number stolen games is more on the Consoles due to a larger number of pirates. Of course the consoles are dedicated console devices, so you have 1M pirates, but you also have 30M+ non-pirate potential consumers.

I disagree with your math...

1. We only hear about modding users banned from Xbox Live. About 30% of Xboxes never get online, so any number of those could be pirates. The fact that they don't play online suggests that this group has a higher amount of modded consoles. Also, because they aren't interested in online services, there's a chance that if they mod the console then all of their games are pirated.

2. Those who go online with their modded consoles do it for the following reasons: access the marketplace content or play online. Both cases suggest that these users have perfectly legal games as well and do not use the modded system for pirated copies only.


The issue gets a little more complicated when you try to compare it to the PC. Usually pirated games are excluded from official online multiplayer gaming, so anyone interested in that will still have to buy the game (although there are pirated servers as well, and then there's LAN play*).
However, it's still possible to buy just a few games and pirate the rest as there's noone to ban the user from anywhere without any method of 'screening' their system. Steam might be an answer to his though, I haven't looked into it in years (even forgot my login) as my home system is far too slow for any PC gaming nowadays.


All in all, Joker's probably the most informed here, having seen actual statistics. And it really is just a question of small percentages, the magnitude of difference between the closed and open platforms is still clear.

* So ironically, whenever there's an online petition for LAN gaming nowadays, there's a good chance that a lot of the people signing them wouldn't buy the game anyway

 

[obonicus]

I'm guessing it was more to be timed with the MW2 release.

These aren't all independent events. It could easily be both.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Wasnt it half of the userbase doesnt even connect to live? thats possibly 2mil right there, not including all those who have been banned already in the past which im sure is a significant number.

I think Live is around 20-25 million users; however those not going online have nothing to risk with modding their systems, so the percentage of piracy is probably higher in this group.

 

[nintenho]

I never got why anyone would go and play a pirated online game. You're guaranteed to be banned within like a couple months.

 

[makattack]

Deja Vu? http://gamer.blorge.com/2008/11/11/microsoft-bans-thousands-of-xbox-360-accounts/

Seems to be an annual event in November... If I recall properly, this even dates back to Halo2/2004:

http://www.joystiq.com/2004/11/10/modded-xbox-you-wont-be-playing-halo-2-online-then/

 

[betan]

I never got why anyone would go and play a pirated online game. You're guaranteed to be banned within like a couple months.

How does MS know a game is pirated unless it's before release of that game?

Maybe it's MS who leaks those pre-release ISOs.

 

[Acert93]

I disagree with your math...

Maybe in your country, but a lot of non-online consumers are parents/families or not as savvy users. Sure, you are right, the number is above the 600k-1M if the 30% non-online users is counted. The reverse side is that even if you want to claim 10M pirates (?!) that means that there are only about 20M honest consumers--who bought a whopping 10M Halo 3 units. The number of pirates may be skewed, but that would only drive home how active the purchasing community is. it doesn't mean piracy isn't an issue, but that the platform is successful inspite of such.

The PC really cannot say that anymore and the % of users pirating is higher AND the # sales is lower. That is a bad combo, even if the 360 has an aggregate higher # pirates, if the % is lower and has higher # sales it means more money is going into the publishers pockets.

 

[zed]

Good on MS.
The major difference between PC + console piracy is with the consoles u have to actually go out and make an effort which
A/ costs money
B/ takes effort
C/ perhaps could brick your system

all in all Im not surprised piracy rates are a lot higher on the PC.
On the upside for MS this should boost xbox360 sales though

 

[deathindustrial]

Anyone feeling sympathetic towards this fine upstanding individual?
Poor him. Life is soooo unfair.

Not to sound overly tinfoil hat but I would not be at all surprised if this "listener" was actually a paid rep astroturfing.

I am not defending those pirating games but as mentioned, there are any number of reasons why you might want to hack a console (bigger hard drive, reverse engineering fun, etc.). It is best for Microsoft if everyone with a modded console == sleazebag as far as the media is concerned.

Personally I am waiting for Microsoft (and / or Sony) to start working with the RIAA and MPAA (and BSA, etc.) to track media files on your network. Seems the obvious way for them to go. . .

Cheers

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think Live is around 20-25 million users;

Users, or accounts? One XB360 can have several accounts, which I'd expect, which would inflate the Live! numbers. eg. My friend's XB360 has at least 3 other people sharing it for multiplayer games, all with accounts. This is the same with PSN, where people will register multiple accounts for the same ox or international accounts.

Anyone know the number of Gold subscribers? That would actually give a very indiciation of those interested in online play.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Good on MS.
The major difference between PC + console piracy is with the consoles u have to actually go out and make an effort which
A/ costs money
B/ takes effort
C/ perhaps could brick your system

all in all Im not surprised piracy rates are a lot higher on the PC.
On the upside for MS this should boost xbox360 sales though

Could just as easily move ps3's. The new slim must be a pretty proposition for someone whos just been banned, keeping the 360 for pirated SP games and use the ps3 for MP. Plus many of the people banned would be pissed off with MS, justified or not.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

A good point, but if the draw for owning the XB360 is Live and multiplayer, like the scumbucket in that Radio 1 article, PS3 isn't a valid alternative. Online is very quiet and disconnected, and if all your friends are still playing on Live!, you just have to have a 360 to join them. Unless they all got banned together, when they'd perform a mass exodus. But they'll then get defeated by PS3's lack of piracy. If they can't get games cheap and have to buy them new, they may as well buy a 360 and buy games new there.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

The reverse side is that even if you want to claim 10M pirates (?!) that means that there are only about 20M honest consumers--who bought a whopping 10M Halo 3 units.

What I've tried to say is that you don't have enough information to try to assess the amount of modded systems

Again - seems to be about 3-5% of the Live users, but with an unknown amount of offline users

By the way my Xbox is offline as well, but not modded either.

 

[eastmen]

Anyone think we will see the end of disc based sytems next gen and MS going with a DD only console ?

Get rid of the piracy and used market in one swoop. Give the big stores DD codes and they can stock more games for longer on the shelves as the codes will take up much less room and reduce inventory costs. You'd loose gamers who don't connect online at all but i'm sure in 2011/2012 that number will be even less than it is now and if its mandatory to go online to download then it wont matter.

They can set it up like steam so that cod mw 2 would have preloaded to those who wanted it starting the first of nov or something and then it would unlock midnight of release day. Everyone gets it the same time .

Hardrives are cheap and with no disc drive in the system they can put in larger and faster 3.5inch drives. 1TB 3.5 inch drives are only $80 to a consumer now. Then for the power user they can sell add on drives that are the smaller 2.5 inch drives that attach outside the console like the current 360 drives .

I really like steam , just don't like that not every game is offered on it. With xbox live doing DD all xbox games would be avalible on it.

 

[Acert93]

If 70% of 360 users have gotten online you can safely assume a higher percentage of early adopters can. Move forward to 2013 as a release date and 2015+ as mass market penetration a HDD based system that relies on DD is possible. You do cut out certain markets (use kiosks for distribution to pen drives?) Could open the door to a "last console" via the cloud as well.

Opting out of a optical drive saves money and space and could justify the expense of a standard HDD in exchange.

 

[specwarGP2]

If 70% of 360 users have gotten online you can safely assume a higher percentage of early adopters can. Move forward to 2013 as a release date and 2015+ as mass market penetration a HDD based system that relies on DD is possible. You do cut out certain markets (use kiosks for distribution to pen drives?) Could open the door to a "last console" via the cloud as well.

Opting out of a optical drive saves money and space and could justify the expense of a standard HDD in exchange.

Except you'll have places like gamestop refusing to sell the hardware unless there's a bigger profit margin. The manufacturer has to raise MSRP (Like PSP go) at which point then it probably would have been cheaper to just include the optical drive to begin with. (BD drives will cost ~$10-$15 next gen?)

 

[Acert93]

Except you'll have places like gamestop refusing to sell the hardware unless there's a bigger profit margin. The manufacturer has to raise MSRP (Like PSP go) at which point then it probably would have been cheaper to just include the optical drive to begin with. (BD drives will cost ~$10-$15 next gen?)

Margins that can be recouped on the sale of games and digital content. And don't discount publishers wanting to not only cut on GameStop's cut but also GameStop practice of buying back a new game at $30 and selling it for $55--a sale Publishers don't see a dime of

As for the BD drive, considering a basic 12x DVD drive and installation considerations costs more than $10 don't count on BDR getting remotely that cheap next gen, let alone the additional licensing costs of BluRay playback.

 

[infinity4]

The only true way of ending piracy on a console is forcing the user to connect online. And that will never ever happen despite of us all living in the world of internet.

I think PS3 is not hacked yet?

 

[BoardBonobo]

... But they'll then get defeated by PS3's lack of piracy....

That has to be quite attractive to publishers? How much money is MS throwing at them to keep them on board if the 360 is the cousin to the PC when it come to piracy.

I just think its a poorly thought out attempt at refreshing the market in light of the PS3's sudden rise in popularity, after all MS will be willing to do anything to be the box under the TV. Its a line of leverage if they loose the battle with Google over control of the web.