Finally: VideoScan Releases High-Def Disc Sales Numbers

["Nerve-Damage"]

Highdefdigest.com

After over six months of head-to-head combat, we finally have an all-inclusive independent yardstick against which to compare Blu-ray and HD DVD disc sales, thanks to the first public release of sales numbers from Neilsen VideoScan.

Nielsen VideoScan is home entertainment industry's leading source for competitive sales info, tracking point-of-sale data from all channels of video distribution including mass merchants, audio/video retailers, electronics outlets, grocery stores, drug stores, and internet sites.

According to VideoScan, during the first two weeks of January, Blu-ray discs outsold HD DVD by more than a 2:1 margin. It should be noted that the two weeks in question saw only two new high-def disc releases -- both from Blu-ray ('The Covenant' on Jan 2, and 'Crank' on Jan 9).

More interestingly, VideoScan's numbers indicate that during the seven days between Jan 7 and Jan 14, Blu-ray managed to close the gap of total discs sold since inception with HD DVD by over seven percentage points, suggesting that if the current trend continues, the two formats could be at disc sales parity within weeks.

Slashdot blurp

The first two weeks worth of data seem to back up what many predicted — that the Blu-ray enabled PS3 is helping Sony quickly close the gap with HD DVD, with almost three Blu-ray discs sold for every one HD DVD during the first week of January.

 

[TheChefO]

Good news for Sony - Bad news for Toshiba

It will be interesting to see if this trend continues or if sales will stabilize after the excitment of having a new toy (BRD) wears off.

What will Toshiba do if this trend continues?

Will these sales affect Sony's timing for ps3 price drops?

Interesting stuff

 

[Rangers]

Is this console?

Anyways, I find these numbers unimpressive on Blu-Ray's part, considering 600k PS3's sold. If anything if I was HDDVD I would have more hope of weathering the storm.

 

[Qroach]

First this thread is in the wrong place and second, making any sort of prediction on a two week sampling is idiotic in my eyes.

 

[Diamond.G]

The guys at AVSforum are having a field day with the numbers.

 

[rounin]

I think this thread should be here. After all, theres been discussions on HD-DVD addon and its effect on the next-gen movie disc format war. That and the fact that PS3 has made an impact.

 

[TheChefO]

Agreed - the bluray vs hd-dvd war is integral to the console space now.

 

[London Geezer]

Well this was already posted on the Video forums by Titanio, so i think this should either be locked or merged with that one. it IS in the wrong place, which is why Titanio originally posted this on the right forum - the Video HDTV or whatever it's called forum...

 

[TheChefO]

Well this was already posted on the Video forums by Titanio, so i think this should either be locked or merged with that one. it IS in the wrong place, which is why Titanio originally posted this on the right forum - the Video HDTV or whatever it's called forum...

Perhaps a thread title change as it should be discussing how these sales relate to the console space.

 

[Qroach]

I think this thread should be here. After all, theres been discussions on HD-DVD addon and its effect on the next-gen movie disc format war. That and the fact that PS3 has made an impact.

I disagree, the blu ray vrs HD-dvd battle has nothing to do with games at all. Who wins the format war is not going to impact game development on the current platforms.

 

[Naboomagnoli]

However it will impact on whether the extra money intrinsic to inclusion of a BR drive on the PS3 is value for money or a golden turkey.

 

[wazoo]

I disagree, the blu ray vrs HD-dvd battle has nothing to do with games at all. Who wins the format war is not going to impact game development on the current platforms.

BR adoption may impact by how much the BR drive will decrease over time, which impacts the ps3 price.

BR disc sales mean royalties means money for Sony means tresor chest to absord a ps3 cut price.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Of course it related to game consoles. The succes of BR directly impacts the rate at which PS3 can price reduce, as well as the desireability of the respective consoles.

Can't say these numbers surprise me too much, HD-DVD still has the overall lead with BR having a big surge recently. If it keeps up HD-DVD will be in trouble, but that's a fairly big if.

 

[zed]

IMO sony aint doing enuf to push blu-ray (esp now as it seems the diode manufacturing problems have eased), they should be getting onto all the aligned studios to publish all their titles on blu-ray, 2 new releases in 2 weeks is a joke. (theyre not even doing all their titles)
before the ps3 launch i thought the likely sucess senerio would be
blu-ray 70%
hd-dvd 1%
no-one 29%

now im believing its more like
blu-ray 50%
hd-dvd <0.1%
no-one ~49%

 

[Bad_Boy]

Can't say these numbers surprise me too much, HD-DVD still has the overall lead with BR having a big surge recently. If it keeps up HD-DVD will be in trouble, but that's a fairly big if.

Why do you say it's "big if"? The momentum of Blu-ray seems pretty strong and shows no signs of slowing down with pretty big upcoming releases. Including the Euro PS3 launch. I dont see the surge going away anytime soon, worst I see happening is that it levels out instead of the current positive climb we have seen over the last 6 or so months. Something big would have to happen to make the numbers go down a significant margin IMHO.

Of course things like these are always hard to predict so I could be wrong.

 

[Zaphod]

Can't say these numbers surprise me too much, HD-DVD still has the overall lead with BR having a big surge recently. If it keeps up HD-DVD will be in trouble, but that's a fairly big if.

Yup. People tend to forget that current HD-sales is still a drop in the bucket compared to the roughly 20 million standalond DVD players sold in the US last year. Even if Sony are able to turn a not insignificant pprtion of the PS3 install base into movie players long term, the PS3 cannot win the whole war all by itself. At some point standalone Blu-Ray players will have to start selling, and the moment that seems a long way off.

 

[Bad_Boy]

the PS3 cannot win the whole war all by itself. At some point standalone Blu-Ray players will have to start selling, and the moment that seems a long way off.

I agree with that 100%. But it begs the question when will this momentum level out or die down? If it even does.

 

[Zaphod]

I agree with that 100%.

No doubt the PS3 is doing well for Sony at the moment, but there are some issues. The most dangerous one that I can see is that - even if the PS3 is currently good for driving content demand - it may keep standalones from other parties out of the market. There are significant cost and legal issues to deal with if Sony has to drive standalone sales with losses and/or subsidies (incitements/rebates to other manufacturers) as well.

But it begs the question when will this momentum level out or die down?

If the current surge is all PS3, which I believe it is, it depends on both how well the PS3 sell, and its attach rate as a movie player.

It would be interesting to see some absolute numbers for Blu-Ray sales. I don't believe relative sales to HD-DVD say all that much without factoring in the attach rate and that the numbers are pretty small to begin with.

The next battle will be won by the camp first to get a standalone player to retail @ a price able to incite those who have never heard of "Blu-Whachyacallit?" but know about "that high definition stuff, you know". $249 in the US is my guess to hit that golden 'mainstream' limit. It has to be less than half the price of that cheapo 32" LCD that Bob just bought, or else it won't fly.

If HD-DVD can win that battle, the war is anyone's game again. If Blu-Ray gets there first (personally, I doubt it) then we can start talking about Toshiba packing up it's toys to go home.

 

[RobertR1]

I think most sensible people expected this to occur. It's quite silly to disregard the PS3's impact especially since early adopters and A/V enthusiasts were the ones who really wanted a PS3 for BR playback. Couple that with high availability of the PS3 this early in the game and anyone will to spend the money for the cheapest and arguably one of the best BR players on the market can get their hands on one.

How well this translates to the sales later down the year remains to be seen. However, the BR camp is also doing a good job of flexing their content advantage and starting to flood the market with content. If BR can keep extending this AND hold onto their exclusive studios advantage, then they simply have to ride out with the PS3 until the stand alone players drop in price considerably. Right now, standalone are players are not selling. Plain and simple.

The HD DVD group ofcourse needs to get their stand alone player prices into main stream range this year and pull away some studio support.

As for avsforum, what you're seeing is bottled up aggression of people wanting to proclaim BR the winner for quite some time now. Just like the HD DVD fanantics were laying into the BR fans last year, they're just returning the favor. So enjoy it for the entertainment but don't look too deep into it.

 

[Bad_Boy]

No doubt the PS3 is doing well for Sony at the moment, but there are some issues. The most dangerous one that I can see is that - even if the PS3 is currently good for driving content demand - it may keep standalones from other parties out of the market. There are significant cost and legal issues to deal with if Sony has to drive standalone sales with losses and/or subsidies (incitements/rebates to other manufacturers) as well.

Currently I think that is the case, but in the long run I think the hardware companies supporting blu-ray will benefit much more down the road. If PS3 ends up being the key for winning the "war" then I dont see those hardware supporters having much to complain about when the PS3 has helped them become more established.

If the current surge is all PS3, which I believe it is, it depends on both how well the PS3 sell, and its attach rate as a movie player.

Yeah it would be interesting to see the attach ratio with blu-ray content to PS3 hardware. Not sure if thats quite possible though. It is possible to see the gains of blu-ray sales after the PS3 was released though.

The next battle will be won by the camp first to get a standalone player to retail @ a price able to incite those who have never heard of "Blu-Whachyacallit?" but know about "that high definition stuff, you know". $249 in the US is my guess to hit that golden 'mainstream' limit. It has to be less than half the price of that cheapo 32" LCD that Bob just bought, or else it won't fly.

Honestly I think content will be a bigger factor. HD-DVD is already loads cheaper on the hardware side of things. 200 (for current 360 owners), 500(for the whole package) to 500-600 on game console players, and around 400-500 to the 800-1000 dollar difference on standalones. People will want the content first at the end of the day and depending on which hardware that content is exclusive will have in my opinion the biggest factor.

If HD-DVD can win that battle, the war is anyone's game again. If Blu-Ray gets there first (personally, I doubt it) then we can start talking about Toshiba packing up it's toys to go home.

I think HD-DVD will easily win the hardware price battle for quite a while, and thats already the case as I said above. But again I think content is king at the end of the day.

As much as I like hearing the weekly/monthy numbers on the ongoing war, I agree it's premature to set anybody in stone yet. It's anyones battle right now from what I can see. But right now I think blu-ray easily has the momentum and I dont see any signs of it slowing, atleast in the next 4-6 months.