Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[NRP]

A new, slightly upgraded console makes no sense from either MS' perspective (extra costs for no gain) or a dev's perspective (supporting two HW platforms, yet not able to take advantage of the new HW due to being forced to code for the ~15 mil weaker ones currently in the wild). So, remind me what MS' incentive to do this is?

I'm not sure what some of you are on about.

 

[RudeCurve]

A new, slightly upgraded console makes no sense from either MS' perspective (extra costs for no gain) or a dev's perspective (supporting two HW platforms, yet not able to take advantage of the new HW due to being forced to code for the ~15 mil weaker ones currently in the wild). So, remind me what MS' incentive to do this is?

I'm not sure what some of you are on about.

It'll allow them to milk old/mature hardware architecture for several more years without needing a total redesign. What did Wii do for Nintendo? Developers could always make a game that takes advantage of more powerful hardware that's also BC with old hardware. They've done it in the PC space for decades.

Xbox360Slim+Natal+higher clock+more RAM = better textures, framerates, motion interface.

 

[obonicus]

A new, slightly upgraded console makes no sense from either MS' perspective (extra costs for no gain) or a dev's perspective (supporting two HW platforms, yet not able to take advantage of the new HW due to being forced to code for the ~15 mil weaker ones currently in the wild). So, remind me what MS' incentive to do this is?

I'm not sure what some of you are on about.

I don't believe it either, especially given the RAM vs. clockspeed discussion in this forum. But I don't want to post a rumor and immediately yell 'BS!', especially not one involving Microsoft.

 

[AzBat]

It'll allow them to milk old/mature hardware architecture for several more years without needing a total redesign. What did Wii do for Nintendo? Developers could always make a game that takes advantage of more powerful hardware that's also BC with old hardware. They've done it in the PC space for decades.

Xbox360Slim+Natal+higher clock+more RAM = better textures, framerates, motion interface.

Don't forget Bluray. Gamecube changed from proprietary 3-inch discs to standard 5-inch DVD discs. Would make sense for Microsoft to take advantage of cheaper Bluray technology.

Hard drive could also come in at least 120gb or more.

Wifi could also be built in.

Tommy McClain

 

[22psi]

I don't know if going 360++ will make sense for MS but it surely makes sense for Sony.

However if MS does do a 360++ it better be BC and run every 360 game better and prettier.

 

[zRifle1z]

IMHO, it might be the perfect time for MS to introduce substantially upgraded hardware with NATAL.

 

[Squilliam]

Jasper CPU 135mm2 GPU 121mm2 EDRam 64mm2

The total die area is 310mm^2 for the CPU/GPU dies combined.

The Xenon has 165?M transistors
The Xenos has 232M transistors

The AMD RV740 has 830M transistors and a die size of 136mm^2. on a 40nm process.

So is there any reason why they couldn't fit 1600m transistors in less than 200mm^2 die area on the 32nm process? Thats enough room for say doubling the CPU core count with some tweaks and quadrupling the transistor count for the GPU as well. Then all they would have to do would be to upgrade the ED-Ram for 720P @ FP16 w 4xAA and they would be done? Furthermore it would probably be cheaper to produce than the Xbox 360 is now.

The RV740 has 55GB memory bandwidth, so I would say something like 65-70 would be doable. Double the ram available and then slap in a BR drive and some flash memory for storage/cache and be done?

Sorry for rambling but does:

6 Core powerpc @ 3.5ghz with some tweaks
1200 SP Directx 11 GPU
Adequate texture/ROP count
16mb ED-Ram
1024mb GDDR5 Ram
10GB cache/storage
6x BR Drive

Sound like a cheap and decent upgrade for late 2010?

 

[Rangers]

The upgraded hardware part, no way. Thats never been done in consoles and never will, you dont understand the console market at all if you think otherwise.

The times anything like that has been attempted (32x) it ended consoles.

The Natal packed in part..maybe. If they want it to be really big it probably will need to be packed in.

The whole rumor is just really confusing on so many levels and makes my head hurt. And even better, we wont get confirmation/repudiation according to the rumor's timeline one way or another for almost a year, just to make the rumor more annoying.

The one weird thing is we havent heard a peep about MS next console, Not even any general clues. Where we've actually heard a lot more about PS4 (lots of Larabee rumors).

But I thought a very good knock on the rumor's credibility was mentioned at GAF, which is that it mentions WiiHD, which again anybody who understands the console market knows doesnt exist, as Nintendo has less than zero reason to introduce such a thing. So that doesnt speak well for credibility.

The only way I think this rumor has a wild shot of being true is if MS looked at the terrible pace process shrinks are progressing, and will progress in the 10 years, and basically thinks advancing hardware is done.

What I mean is in 3.5 years of 360 it's had 1 process shrink, and that was like pulling teeth. It's not going to get better next gen.

 

[liolio]

This rumor is complete bullshit mixing together extra resources that Natal will have inbox and recent declaration from Shane Kim. It smells FUD imho any spreadint that shit is all wrong? MS must be happy Natal is the "hot topic" and they will have new presentations soon enough to adress this FUD spreading.
As per Joshua signature "There are no Microsoft rumors. There are only Microsoft leaks." so I don't worry for the lack of rumors about the next xbox.

 

[Squilliam]

The upgraded hardware part, no way. Thats never been done in consoles and never will, you dont understand the console market at all if you think otherwise.

The times anything like that has been attempted (32x) it ended consoles.

The Natal packed in part..maybe. If they want it to be really big it probably will need to be packed in.

The whole rumor is just really confusing on so many levels and makes my head hurt. And even better, we wont get confirmation/repudiation according to the rumor's timeline one way or another for almost a year, just to make the rumor more annoying.

The one weird thing is we havent heard a peep about MS next console, Not even any general clues. Where we've actually heard a lot more about PS4 (lots of Larabee rumors).

But I thought a very good knock on the rumor's credibility was mentioned at GAF, which is that it mentions WiiHD, which again anybody who understands the console market knows doesnt exist, as Nintendo has less than zero reason to introduce such a thing. So that doesnt speak well for credibility.

The only way I think this rumor has a wild shot of being true is if MS looked at the terrible pace process shrinks are progressing, and will progress in the 10 years, and basically thinks advancing hardware is done.

What I mean is in 3.5 years of 360 it's had 1 process shrink, and that was like pulling teeth. It's not going to get better next gen.

"06/13/09 1UP recently posted a new article revealing details on Microsoft's plans for their next XBox, we can officially confirm the information found in that particular report was indeed correct. However today FGNOnline would like to reveal Microsoft's planned specifications of their new unit.

As mentioned in the 1UP piece the system shall indeed integrate the motion sensing technology Natal into the actual device, however our separate sources can now reveal the modest upgrade made to the actual architecture of the new system.

GPU

Whereas the original XBox 360 used a Shader Model 3 GPU with on-board 10MB eDRAM for 720p acceleration, the new XBox has a Shader Model 5 capable GPU with 32MB of eDRAM for 1080p output. The GPU again is designed by AMD and runs at a clock rate of 600MHz.

CPU

The IBM developed CPU shall have 6 cores instead of the 3 found in the original model.
Each single core shall have the same processing throughput as each single core from the XCPU. Meaning the chip is literally 200% as strong and shall now be on equal footing with the PS3 CELL CPU in GFLOPS performance.

MEMORY

The main system RAM has been upgraded from 512MB to 1024MB, and from GDDR3 to GDDR5.
The system retains a Unified Memory Architecture.

OTHER

The platform integrates a 2.5" 32GB SSD (Solid State Drive) instead of a HDD (Hard Disk Drive) as found in the original models. The system also uses a standard DVD drive foregoing Blu-ray thus ensuring backwards and forwards compatibility whilst simultaneously keeping the bill of materials low. Internet connectivity is provided via WiFi.

RELEASE & PRICING

Microsoft plans on a Q4 2010 simultaneous worldwide release. The company is targeting a sub $300 price point.

Zach Morris"

Source: http://fgnonline.webs.com/

Thats ironic in that it matches a prediction I made. So what does everyone think of this rumour? Its about 1.3 years out from release and about the perfect time and it also cites a rumour from 1up as well. Furthermore the specs kinda make sense though he could have just be reading this thread and made up something appropriate.

 

[upnorthsox]

Well the added memory and associated edram upgrade makes perfect sense, even moreso for Sony and the ps3 who could use it along with the new slim model as a way to relaunch the platform without really changing much. Both systems could then make 1080p claims, it's a cheap upgrade, and as long as they still required devs to continue to support the original standards it would extend this gen 1-3 more yrs. You also wouldn't want to be the one with the whoa-fully under memoried system so if it happens for one the other will follow.

The beefed up cpu at first blush doesn't make alot of sense until you bring natal into the picture, then it makes perfect sense. I had thought that a co-processor like the Spursengine would be a better onboard and offboard fit for natal and probably cheaper too, but if you're updating everything else then going with more Xenon cores instead makes better sense. I would imagine that the stand alone natal then would have a single or dual core Xenon as its processor, again makes sense.

The only way updating the Xenos makes any sense is if they finally fix the rrod issue with the update. It may be that they've been sitting on this fix for a while now but weren't sure how to introduce it, now they'd have the chance though it'd never officially be stated as such.

Going with an ssd makes no sense at all, the only possible sense it makes is if it's some kind of ploy to keep you from migrating your old hhd over to the new system which would be dumb imo. Add in the much steeper current cost and I see zero chance of this happening.

I could see MS being petty enough to leave out a BRD but it's not a biggie either way. I'd expect the camera bar to be a builtin pullout type bar.

From a sales perspective this again makes alot of sense, with the new emphasis on the low end arcade and with launch units coming up on a yr out of warranty, offering something besides a probable money loser in arcade as a replacement is the way to go. They'd then just discontinue the pro and elite.

Again, going back to the ps3 and if they are actually thinking of upgrading the memory (and MS would know by now if they were) then this could all be seen as a defensive action to that, or maybe more acurately, a way to avoid going on the defense and staying aggressive.

 

[obonicus]

Who the hell is fgnonline? If you go one post down it says that Sega's next arcade board will do ray-tracing(!). If you go two posts down the guys are saying that Sega-Sammy is re-entering the console business (!!!) with a casual-oriented machine.

 

[chris1515]

Who the hell is fgnonline? If you go one post down it says that Sega's next arcade board will do ray-tracing(!). If you go two posts down the guys are saying that Sega-Sammy is re-entering the console business (!!!) with a casual-oriented machine.

It is clearly not a serious website.

 

[obonicus]

It is clearly not a serious website.

As long as we agree on that. The specs look like they multiplied everything by 2. I do like:

The platform integrates a 2.5" 32GB SSD (Solid State Drive) instead of a HDD (Hard Disk Drive) as found in the original models. The system also uses a standard DVD drive foregoing Blu-ray thus ensuring backwards and forwards compatibility whilst simultaneously keeping the bill of materials low. Internet connectivity is provided via WiFi.

 

[Rangers]

Who the hell is fgnonline? If you go one post down it says that Sega's next arcade board will do ray-tracing(!). If you go two posts down the guys are saying that Sega-Sammy is re-entering the console business (!!!) with a casual-oriented machine.

Exactly. And in the past whenever a no name site (Edit: in fact, upon looking it over, it WAS that site) has speculated new Sega home hardware will be released. NeoGaf would mock them out of existence. Yet they seem to be just rolling right along with these rumored 360-2 specs from that website

Even one of the posters in that neogaf thread said something like the FGN fake specs seem to be taken from his posts in that thread..

 

[Boxercide]

The system also uses a standard DVD drive foregoing Blu-ray thus ensuring backwards and forwards compatibility whilst simultaneously keeping the bill of materials low.

To quote Johnnie Cochran on South Park, "THAT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE!"

 

[obonicus]

Even one of the posters in that neogaf thread said something like the FGN fake specs seem to be taken from his posts in that thread..

That one poster actually legitimized the site by posting the model 4 ray-tracer arcade board news in a separate topic. And all he tends to do is babble semi-incoherently about hardware.

 

[Rangers]

Some of the specs almost sound like a true next gen console. For example a shader model 5 GPU would mean an all new GPU. @ 600 mhz means it could be quite beefy, except that the rumor specifies the GPU will be a "slight upgrade".

As ridiculous as it sounds these rumors strike me as being true. Just something about them feels as real as the leaked 360 specs way back in the day. Yet I know they specifically cannot be, because that site clearly just fabricates things, and the 1up story was assuredly wrong about the hardware upgrade part of the rumor.

Then what of PS4? If the rumor was true, then the "upgraded" 360 would have a significant power edge on PS3, and presumably this could be for some years as PS3 apparently must go on for at least 6 years. Is all of this strategically good or bad for either camp?

Simply whether they pack in Natal has all sorts of connotations as well. Mainly that it would seem to put the kibosh on any future price cuts for a long time at the least. If they pack it in, if they dont actually RAISE the 360 price they would at least have to hold it steady imo, substituting the Natal hardware expense for the price cut that would have happened. So you start to see an effect, which I think you already have with Rare no showing at E3, of Natal effecting the hardcore gamer side of 360 in a negative way. But again is it good or bad? If Natal gets pull with casuals, it could change the game. But if it doesnt, it could be just a sideshow that ends up hurting the bread and butter hardcore side of 360.

Well again, it's all very confusing. I'm pretty sure these rumors are false, though.

 

[22psi]

"06/13/09 1UP recently posted a new article revealing details on Microsoft's plans for their next XBox, we can officially confirm the information found in that particular report was indeed correct. However today FGNOnline would like to reveal Microsoft's planned specifications of their new unit.

As mentioned in the 1UP piece the system shall indeed integrate the motion sensing technology Natal into the actual device, however our separate sources can now reveal the modest upgrade made to the actual architecture of the new system.

GPU

Whereas the original XBox 360 used a Shader Model 3 GPU with on-board 10MB eDRAM for 720p acceleration, the new XBox has a Shader Model 5 capable GPU with 32MB of eDRAM for 1080p output. The GPU again is designed by AMD and runs at a clock rate of 600MHz.

CPU

The IBM developed CPU shall have 6 cores instead of the 3 found in the original model.
Each single core shall have the same processing throughput as each single core from the XCPU. Meaning the chip is literally 200% as strong and shall now be on equal footing with the PS3 CELL CPU in GFLOPS performance.

MEMORY

The main system RAM has been upgraded from 512MB to 1024MB, and from GDDR3 to GDDR5.
The system retains a Unified Memory Architecture.

OTHER

The platform integrates a 2.5" 32GB SSD (Solid State Drive) instead of a HDD (Hard Disk Drive) as found in the original models. The system also uses a standard DVD drive foregoing Blu-ray thus ensuring backwards and forwards compatibility whilst simultaneously keeping the bill of materials low. Internet connectivity is provided via WiFi.

RELEASE & PRICING

Microsoft plans on a Q4 2010 simultaneous worldwide release. The company is targeting a sub $300 price point.

Zach Morris"

Source: http://fgnonline.webs.com/

Thats ironic in that it matches a prediction I made. So what does everyone think of this rumour? Its about 1.3 years out from release and about the perfect time and it also cites a rumour from 1up as well. Furthermore the specs kinda make sense though he could have just be reading this thread and made up something appropriate.

All for $299? Backward and forward compatible 360 games? I am there.

 

[TheChefO]

All for $299? Backward and forward compatible 360 games? I am there.

Exactly.

at $300 today we get the xb360 and a hdd.


If we get improved hardware, it won't be for the same price.